working draft - fao.org briefs 2010... · working draft fsnwg ... marang ga t a ra mpanda kayanza...

Brief on Food Security and Nutrition Brief on Food Security and Nutrition ConditionsConditions

Eastern & Central Africa Eastern & Central Africa

March 2010March 2010

WORKING DRAFTFSNWG

Food Security and Nutrition Working Group

Nairobi, March 11, 2010

Current regional food security conditions

projections through March 10 *

The names and boundaries on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the UN.

Sources: IPC country teams; FEWS NET for Chad and Djibouti. Sudan map is preliminary.

*Updates:

- Somalia: Jan - Jun 2010

- Burundi: Jan – Jun 2010

- CAR: Feb – Jun 2010 (draft)

Food Security RisksCurrent Situations of Concern

Uganda: floods, landslides and water-logging

Kenya: heavy rains, localized floodsSomalia: Al Shabaab banned WFP working

Sudan: persisting insecurity/ conflicts in Darfur

Ethiopia: food security concern

SPECIAL FOCUS:

Burundi and CAR: Food Security crisis

Climate RiskUGANDA: floods, landslides and water

logging

Sources: IFR

C, R

eliefWeb

Climate RiskUGANDA: floods, landslides and water

loggingHeavy rains in Eastern and North Eastern Uganda: more than 10000 people affected (IFRC)

Needs:

Immediate: search and rescue, shelters, essential HH items for IDPs, first aid, water treatment.

Medium term: Safe water provision, construction tools provision, seeds distribution.

Death, displacement, properties and infrastructure destruction, crop lost, disease outbreak risk.

Rains are expected to continue up to late April/ early May

Climate RiskKenya: heavy rains, localized flooding

Source:

OCH

A

Immediate Needs:

Access to potable water (Garbatulla, Isiolo); shelters; food.

LR season started with heavy rains and floods:

1097 HH displaced

More than 8000 people affected

Deaths (11)

loss of crops and livestock

Damage to infrastructure(OCHA, Kenya Red Cross Society)

Floods in Jan 2010 / Mar 2010:

Lokori Division still affected

Climate RiskSOMALIA: localized flooding

Gebiley

(Ethiopia-Somaliland border)

-1000 displaced.(OCHA)

Civil Security/Conflict RiskSOMALIA: Al Shabaab stops WFP working

Al Shabaab banned WFP operations inside Somalia:

M. Juba region: Al Shabaab took over WFP compound

L. Juba region: Al Shabaab took over WFP warehouse

(OCHA)

Civil Security/Conflict RiskSUDAN: fighting persists, concerns for IDPs

DarfurDarfur: fighting persists (SLA Nour – Sudan’s army)

Information scarce for lack of access (OCHA)

Internal Displacements

Some NGOs suspending intervention (e.g. MdM in Eastern Jebel Marra)

Food Security situation:

- Poor crop harvest, food stocks depleted (N. Darfur)

- Shortfall of 180,000 MT of grain 1.7 million affected (N. Darfur) (Feb. Post Harvest assessment)

Ethiopia: Food insecurity in Amhara region

Amhara (DRMFSS - multi agency team assessment):

FS situation requires immediate humanitarian intervention

Crop Failures (consecutive)

Water shortage and poor pasture (livestock loss)

Decline of labour income

Immediate terms recommendations:

Food relief, feed, seed and livestock supply.(OCHA)

Food Security Situation, Special Focus :Burundi

IPC MAP (Jan - Jun 2010) Draft


Overview1. A shortfall of seeds/cuttings (beans, sweet potato, potato and

cassava)2. Significant climatic disturbances:

a. Delayed rains and plantingb. Delays in harvesting beans, thus affecting 2010B seasonc. Excessive rainfall in November due to El Niño

3. Crop raiding4. Severe Cassava mosaic still in East and Southeast Burundi: Moso

and Buragane5. Very high incidence of malaria and diarrheal diseases6. Concerns over malnutrition levels 5. Complex structural conditions:

a. very high density of population, b. continued degradation of the environment (low soil fertility)c. high poverty while high costs of inputs/ag. products


Rainfall Deviations: November

-150-100

-500

50100150200250300350400450

Cankuzo Muriza MusasaMakamba Gitega Karusi Buja Gisozi MuyingaBugabira Busoni

% D

evia

tion

D1D2D3+20%-20%

Rainfall Deviations: December 09

-100-50

050

100150200250300350400450

Cankuzo Muriza MusasaMakamba Gitega Karusi Buja Gisozi Muyinga Bugabira Busoni

% D

evia

tion

D1D2D3+20%-20%

Rainfall Deviations: September

-150-100

-500

50100150200250300350400450500


% D

evia

tion

D1D2D3+20%-20%

Rainfall Deviations: October

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250


% D

evia

tion

D1D2D3+20%-20%


2010A vs 2009A

• 2010A second highest deficit in the last 7 years on record (2009A is highest)

• Production of cereal, roots, tubers, banana and plantain slightly increased (+2% - +5%)

• Production of legumes sharply dropped (-12%)• Overall only 1% production increase• More severe crisis (localized)• High malnutrition rates (50%<Stunting<65%)

Humanitarian Emergency

• Declared in Bugabira and Busoni Communes, and parts of Kirundo Commune.

drought prevailed from October 2009 to January 2010

rising food prices combined with previous food production deficits due to severe cassava mosaic disease and dry spells. Season 2010A total crop failure;

Jan/Feb 2010 harvest was expected to last through June

Busoni

Ntega

Giteranyi

Vumbi Butihinda

Kirundo

Bugabira

Gitobe

Gashoho

Marangara

Bwambarangwe

Nyamurenza

Kirundo

Muyinga

30°3

0'

30°0

0'

Thus:

RWANDA


Populations in Crisis

Depth: 54%

Depth: 23%


• Joint mission’s (Gov, UN, NGOs) estimations:Magnitude:– 35,710 households/178,550 people in Humanitarian

Emergency• 53,550 in Bugabira• 85,000 in Busoni• 40,000 in Kirundo

– Another 15,000 households/75,000 people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

• 30,000 in Bugabira• 35,000 in Busoni• 10,000 in Kirundo.

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis• Livelihood Zone: Moso

– Dry spell: Rains delayed two months, recurrent water shortages, rainfall disruption for one month in late Jan early Feb will be the most destructive

– Heavy rains due to El Nino • Floods November - December

floods have jeopardized wetlands productions

– Hail storms/high winds– High incidence of severe

Cassava Mosaic– High food prices

Giharo

Gisuru

Kigamba

Cankuzo

Butezi

Bweru

Kayogoro

Gitega

Mishiha

Itaba

Ruyigi

bago

Buhiga

Rutana

Gisagara

nga

Kinyinya

Buhinyuza

Butaganzwa2

Bukemba

endana

eta

Musongati

Gihogazi

aza

Bugenyuzi Mwakiro

o

Shombo

MpingaKayove

Mutumba

Nyabikere

Nyabitsinda

Gitaramuka

Cendajuru

ubi

uhororo

Makebuko

Bukirasazi Tanz

anie

RuyigiGitega

Rutana

Karuzi Cankuzo

Généralement en sécurité alimentaireInsécurité alimentaire

dé é /li it

Phase Actuelle ou Imminente

$Z

$Z



Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

• Livelihood zone : Plaine LimboGihanga , Mpanda et Mutimbuzi Communes

– Floods

Giteg

Mabayi

Murwi

Mugina

Musigati

Gihanga

Ngozi

Ndava

Rango

Bubanza

Bukinanyana

Bugendana

GihetaIsale

Bukeye

Giho

Rugazi

Rusaka

Kabarore

Rugombo

MurutaBuganda

Mukike

Mutaho

Gisozi

Muramvya

Matongo

Mbuye

Busiga

M h t G

Ruhororo

Makeb

Marang

Gatara

Mpanda

Kayanza

Mutimbuzi

Mwumba

Muhanga

Kiganda

Kayokwe

Nyabihanga

Kabezi

Gashikanwa

Nyanrusange

Mutambu

Butaganzwa

Mubimbi

Gahombo

Kanyosha

Rutegama

Nyabiraba

Nyamurenza

Mugongomanga

Giteg

Ngozi

Cibitoke

Kayanza

Mwaro

Bubanza

Buja Rural

MuramvyaBuja Mairie

-3°00'

-3°30'

$Z

Opportunities for ResponseFood Security Situation, Special Focus :Burundi

• agricultural inputs to the vulnerable farmers for season 2010B,• Multiply and distribute existing healthy cassava cuttings

For Bugesera:• Existence of lakes and rivers that allow intensification of wetlands

production• Vast Kanyaru wetlands for sustainable agricultural intensification• Many actors in agricultural development operating on site

For Moso:• Existence of vast irrigable wetlands for extensive agriculture

development• Many actors in agricultural development operating on site

Upcoming elections: a possible risk ?• Elections

timeline:– 20 May:

Communal– 28 June:

Presidential– 23 July:

National Assembly

• Tensions are rising ahead of Elections

• African Union troops began in 2009 disarming 21,000 fighters from Burundi's last active rebel group

• The Forces Nationales de Libération (FNL) and the Front pour la Démocratie au Burundi (FRODEBU) are mobilizing their own youth wings to oppose intimidation tactics of CNDD-FDD youth wing


• Escalating violence to decrease access to food, fields, markets, internal and external trade flow.

• Possible crisis in Bujumbura if food is prevented from arriving in city.

• Presidential Elections to coincide with harvest season...

Food Security Situation, Special FocusCentral African Republic

IPC MAP (February - June 2010) Draft

Acute Food and Livelihood CrisisFood Security Situation, Special Focus :Central African Republic

• 8 Préfectures spread in 5 of the 6 regions

– Mambere Kadei– Ouham Pende– Ouham– Nana Gribizi– Bamingui Bangora– Vakaga– Basse Kotto– Haute Mbomou

Food Security Situation, Special Focus :Central African Republic

Main Drivers

• Irregular rains/dry spells• Crops and livestock disease• Rising foodstuff prices and crashing cash crop

prices• Mostly cassava (over 95%) followed by maize

and groundnuts. • Structural causes

– Small size plots (<1 ha), rudimentary production techniques, rain-fed, very low use of improved seeds, fertilizer (poor soil)

– Low yields– High rural poverty: 73%, high HIV/AIDS prevalence

Food Security Situation, Special Focus :Central African Republic

Main Drivers• Rebellions in the north, • North west, clashes with bandits • In the north east, violence is on the rise, as rebels try to

bolster their negotiating positions and the government remains set on pursuing a military solution

• Re-entry of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) into the CAR in May 2009 -free range in the south east

• Burning and looting houses/villages • Raiding of crop fields and livestock theft• Roadblocks • Kidnapping and killing civilians

» Internal and external displacement» Reduced food availability and food access» Coping strategies jeopardized (hunting, fishing, gathering)» Restricted investment

Upcoming elections: a possible risk ?Food Security Situation, Special Focus :Central African Republic

• Elections scheduled for April 2010• High probability they will be postponed for

insufficient technical preparation or lack of security improvement.

• Potential impact of escalation of clashes– More displacement– Restricted movement and access to food– Livelihood assets stripping– Humanitarian emergency

Current Rainfall and Vegetation AnomaliesUnseasonal above normal rainfall in some areas Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia

This may improve currently below normal vegetation and pasture conditions

Rainfall Estimates (Percent of Normal)

February 2010

Source: USGS/FEWS NET Source: NASA/GSFC

Vegetation Conditions (percent of normal)

1 -21 February 2010

Regional Rainfall Forecast March – May 2010

Normal above normal rainfall in greater Manderatriangle: critical for recovery of pastoral areas.

Normal - below normal rainfall in pastoral areas of northern Uganda, north-central Kenya, central Somalia and southern-east Ethiopia: food insecurity can persists or deteriorates.

Source: adapted from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) consensus outlook forecast.

working draft - fao.org briefs 2010... · working draft fsnwg ... marang ga t a ra mpanda kayanza...

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