On the road to better….

Response analysis

FSNWGFood Security and Nutrition Working Group

Efforts in 2012 & 2013

July 2010

1. Situation Analysis with hotspot details

Where are we now?

2. Situation Analysis seasonality for each livelihood systemWhere are we now?

3. Response analysis

What could we be doing now?

Situation & Response analysis – FSNWG 2012Regional IPC Map Seasonal Calendars Response matrix

4. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecastWhere are we going?

5. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecast for each livelihood system and wealth groupWhere are we going?

7. ADVOCACY & PLANNINGWhat should we do?

6. Response analysis3-6 month action planWhat could we plan?

On the road to better….

Response analysis:

July 2010

Dec

embe

r 201

2

…past attempts have been challenging

…is complex, with various layers of enquiry to define the most appropriate response

…is context specific – down to LZ & district level

…its logical or simple for those with intimate knowledge of an area

…needs to link emergency activities to long-term sustainable development goals – identification of no regrets options

…should incorporate lessons from past good practice

…investigate options outside the box – innovation is key

Finding a common framework using different approaches…..2012

Steps

1. Situation

2. Scenario

3. Response

4. Contingency

Plan

Task

Current Conditions

Trigger Event Most Likely Outcomes

Explain Outcomes

Response Options

Response Selection

Contingency Plan

Purpose

FSN situationHotspot areasAffected pop.

Analogue Year/Event

Level of Risk Coping & Development Objectives

Options that best fit level of risk, coping, development context

RA considera-tions

Preparedness for timely implementation

Process

IPC situation analysisFEWS NETGov’t FSN WG e.g. KFSSGFSNAU……

IPC predictive analysisIGAD COFEl Nino/La Nina WGs

Scenario building(WFP, FEWS)

HEA Outcome analysis

RAFLEGSSPHERE

RAFDecision treesResponse selection matrix

Contingency planning:Gov’t e.g. DSGsWFPNGOsDonors?

Data

FSN mapsSeasonal calendarsPricesProduction etc

FSN mapsICPACNDVICEWARNPop data

Pop dataTrend dataQuantify the problem

HEA baseline dataLivelihood Context

RA considera-tions – FSN & marketCalendarsLT strategies

Do No Harm indicators

NDMA/ALRMPNGO plans & guidelines

Operating Environment Situational analysis

o Needs assessmento Causal analysiso Projection/forecast

Feasibility analysis Market assessment

o Feasibility of market interventions Donor resources Organizational capacity Partner agency capacity Government policy Access and security Timeliness Record of past programs

o M&E recordso Lessons learned documentation

Influence of large agencies Conditionality/targeting considerations Logistics Value for money analysis

Agency environment Organizational considerations

o Mandate and missiono Objectives in fieldo Capacity and skill set

Appropriateness considerations Internal comparison of response options

– related to best practice External analysis of gaps in response Risk assessment/ prevention of

unintended consequenceso Market distortion riskso Staff security and safetyo Recipient community securityo Risk of theft, diversion or corruptiono Reputational/legal risks to agencyo Do no harm analysiso Fits into ongoing interventions

Cost effectiveness Assessment of recipient preferences Evidence of post-distribution dynamics

Response Analysis Considerations adapted from Dan Maxwell et al. ODI

Regional seasonal calendars

Above normal Long rains Dry season

April May June July - Sept

Milk available.

Prices of staples increase slightly as own stocks diminish waiting for next harvest

Agricultural labour opportunities available –weeding

Good pasture/water availability

Cattle & shoat condition good/price increases- although susceptible to disease.

Improved availability of shoat & cattle milk

Calving conditions good but protection to young livestock in wet/cold conditions

Prolonged availability of pasture as rains are predicted to be good – access to milk

Seasonal response options: April – June 2013…..

Monitor• Monitor rain performance and pasture

and water regeneration, migration • Monitor crop performance, if rains below-

normal check marginal farmers/rainfed areas

Looking forward to next dry season July – Sept • Prioritise to keep kids in school• Preserve milk and fodder for the dry season• Diversification of off-farm income• Expansion of safety nets/ FSL support• Surge capacity of sectors• Design short-term interventions contribute to long-

term objectives• Opportunity to invest in long-term – innovation,

commercialisation, engage private sector, targeting settled poor

Cross-border Crisis Calendar Analysis: 2008/9Garissa-Afmadow El Niño/floods Contingency Planning

Assessment• No contingency plan in place• No analysis done on flood

scenario• Dissatisfaction with usefulness

of existing CPs for droughts• No mechanisms for

coordination across-borders• No mechanisms for joint

strategic analysis and planning across-Districts

What was done?• Crisis calendar analysis• Developed inter-agency

cross-border response strategy

• Looked at start-up timelines• Scheduled interventions and

decisions• Decided on cross-border

coordination mechanisms• Looked at what needs to

change for this to work!

Flood analysis – Garissa & Afmadow Sept 09

Drought Wajir Pastoralists 2010/2011 – survival threshold deficits

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

ref.year curr.year thresholds

% m

inim

um

fo

od

nee

ds

food aid/safety netsotherlabourlivestock salescrop salescropsmilk salesmilkThresholdslivelihoods protectionsurvival

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

ref.year curr.year thresholds

% m

inim

um

fo

od

nee

ds

food aid/safety netsotherlabourlivestock salescrop salescropsmilk salesmilkThresholdslivelihoods protectionsurvival

WSG: P 58% WSG: M 50% WSG: R 30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

ref.year curr.year thresholds

% m

inim

um

fo

od

nee

ds

food aid/safety netsotherlabourlivestock salescrop salescropsmilk salesmilkThresholdslivelihoods protectionsurvival

Impact of moderate El- Niño 2012 : Turkana Agro-past

Kerio Riverine Agro-pastoralistsVery poorLivelihood deficit 11%Survival deficit 35%

PoorLivelihood deficit 12%Survival deficit 10%

Turkwell Riverine Agro-pastoralistsVery poorLivelihood deficit 26%Survival deficit 9%

ref.year curr.year thresholds0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

survivallivelihoods protectionThresholdsmilkmilk salescropscrop saleslivestock sales

Total Income (food +cash)

District: KerioLivelihood Zone: KAPHousehold type: VP

ref.year curr.year thresholds0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

survivallivelihoods protectionThresholdsmilkmilk salescropscrop saleslivestock sales

Total Income (food +cash)District: TurkwellLivelihood Zone: TAPHousehold type: VP

ref.year curr.year thresholds0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

survivallivelihoods protectionThresholdsmilkmilk salescropscrop sales

Total Income (food +cash)District: KerioLivelihood Zone: KAPHousehold type: VP

FSNWG Livestock & pastoral Sub-groupIdentification of response activitiesSectors

•Livestock health & feed•Human nutrition, health & sanitation•Access & availability of food•Water harvesting & collection•Conflict & cross-border issues•Infra-structure•Access to markets & market prices•Community-based Early Warning

+ Implications for programming

+ Drawing on best practice in similar analogue years

+ targeting hotspots & using on-going programming as entry points

Sep

tem

ber

2012