winter 2017 the aging bull - custom wealth strategies · expansions and recessions will help you...

4
As of 11/06/2017, YTD the S&P 500 has risen 15.4% while the DOW has climbed 18.58%. The NASDAQ has risen an impressive 25.45% for the year. The MSCI EAFE Index, which represents the stocks of the developed International mar- kets, managed a total return of 22.71% for the year. The 10 year U.S. Treasury sits at 2.30%, the yield curve the flattest it’s been since 2007. The Feds likely to raise rates once more 2018. Quarterly Investment Newsletter Winter 2017 MARKET WATCH The Aging Bull by: Jeremy I. Beck The Aging Bull (Cont’d from Page 1) PAGE 2 The Aging Bull by: Jeremy I. Beck Backdoor Roth IRA: Is it for you? PAGE 3 Helping You Meet Your Financial Goals. Dream. Plan. Enjoy. PAGE 4 PAGE 1 It appears that the morale of this story is to ride the bull for as long as possible and make sure you are not exposed to the wrath of bear. Using the figures above, an all equity portfolio worth $2,000,000 would be worth $1,180,000 after being destroyed by the average bear. As we all know, being annihi- lated by a bear market is not an option since many of us simply don’t have enough years to recover from such a catastrophic loss. Moving forward, what are our options? In the sim- plest terms, there are three possible solutions. First, you could remain overweight equities and be fortunate enough to exit at precisely the right time, protecting all of your gains. As this is high- ly unlikely, (did you sell all your equities in October, 2017?) your second option would be to close your equities and remain in a conservative bond portfo- lio with an average yield of roughly 2.5%. The is- sue with this solution is the risk of missed oppor- tunity for further equity gains. Furthermore, when you factor in taxes and inflation on a yield of 2.5%, your net return for this option is closer to a 0.5%. (story continued on Page 2) The current bull market was born at a tumultuous time at the end of the Great Recession, wel- comed to the world on March 9, 2009. This bull is approaching a decade old and will remain intact until there is at least a 20 percent drop in the S&P 500 (which would signify the birth of our next bear market). You may ask, what is the typ- ical life expectancy of a bull? If you guessed 9.0 years, you would be correct. The shortest bull market lasted merely 2.5 years (1970 – 1972) and the oldest bull passed away after 15.1 years roaming the United States from 1947 to 1962. Although past market performance is not a guarantee of future results, I believe that looking at the history of the market’s expansions and recessions will help you gain an edge when investing for the long term. As noted above, the average bull market is 9.0 years in length, whereas the average bear market (when the market closes down at least 20% from its previous high) lasts only 1.4 years. During the average bear market, the average cumulative loss is -41.0%! V O L U M E 85 From the Desk of Jeremy I. Beck President, Custom Wealth Strategies 4990 Transit Road, Depew, NY 14043 www.customwealthstrategies.com

Upload: others

Post on 28-Jul-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Winter 2017 The Aging Bull - Custom Wealth Strategies · expansions and recessions will help you gain an edge when investing for the long term. As noted above, the average bull market

As of 11/06/2017, YTD the

S&P 500 has risen 15.4%

while the DOW has climbed

18.58%. The NASDAQ has

risen an impressive 25.45%

for the year.

The MSCI EAFE Index, which

represents the stocks of the

developed International mar-

kets, managed a total return

of 22.71% for the year.

The 10 year U.S. Treasury

sits at 2.30%, the yield curve

the flattest it’s been since

2007. The Feds likely to raise

rates once more 2018.

Quarterly

Investment

Newsletter

Wint er 2017

MARKET WATCH The Aging Bul l

by: Jeremy I. Beck

The Aging Bull

(Cont’d from

Page 1)

PAGE 2

The Aging

Bull

by: Jeremy I.

Beck

Backdoor

Roth IRA:

Is it for you?

PAGE 3

Helping You

Meet Your

Financial Goals.

Dream.

Plan.

Enjoy.

PAGE 4 PAGE 1

It appears that the morale of this story is to ride the

bull for as long as possible and make sure you are

not exposed to the wrath of bear. Using the figures

above, an all equity portfolio worth $2,000,000

would be worth $1,180,000 after being destroyed

by the average bear. As we all know, being annihi-

lated by a bear market is not an option since many

of us simply don’t have

enough years to recover from

such a catastrophic

loss. Moving forward, what

are our options? In the sim-

plest terms, there are three

possible solutions. First, you

could remain overweight

equities and be fortunate

enough to exit at precisely

the right time, protecting all

of your gains. As this is high-

ly unlikely, (did you sell all your equities in October,

2017?) your second option would be to close your

equities and remain in a conservative bond portfo-

lio with an average yield of roughly 2.5%. The is-

sue with this solution is the risk of missed oppor-

tunity for further equity gains. Furthermore, when

you factor in taxes and inflation on a yield of 2.5%,

your net return for this option is closer to a 0.5%.

(story continued on Page 2)

The current bull market was born at a tumultuous

time at the end of the Great Recession, wel-

comed to the world on March 9, 2009. This bull is

approaching a decade old and will remain intact

until there is at least a 20 percent drop in the S&P

500 (which would signify the birth of our next bear

market).

You may ask, what is the typ-

ical life expectancy of a bull?

If you guessed 9.0 years, you

would be correct.

The shortest bull market lasted

merely 2.5 years (1970 – 1972)

and the oldest bull passed

away after 15.1 years roaming

the United States from 1947 to

1962. Although past market

performance is not a guarantee of future results, I

believe that looking at the history of the market’s

expansions and recessions will help you gain an

edge when investing for the long term. As noted

above, the average bull market is 9.0 years in

length, whereas the average bear market (when

the market closes down at least 20% from its

previous high) lasts only 1.4 years. During the

average bear market, the average cumulative

loss is -41.0%!

VOLUME 85

From the Desk o f Jerem y I . Beck

President , Custom W eal th Strategies

4990 Transit Road, Depew, NY 14043 www.customwealthstrategies.com

Page 2: Winter 2017 The Aging Bull - Custom Wealth Strategies · expansions and recessions will help you gain an edge when investing for the long term. As noted above, the average bull market

5 FIVE

FACTS

ABOUT

BUFFALO

The Aging Bull (continued)

DID YOU KNOW?

Only 5 stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for

52% of the gain YTD as of 10/31/2017. They are

Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft.

Without Tech stocks the S&P

would be up only 0.5%.

Call Jeremy Beck today to schedule your complimentary, comprehensive portfolio review!

Do you own any micro or small cap stocks that

may only sell a handful of products or ser-

vices? If so, consider multi-national, high quality,

dividend paying equities that may have thou-

sands of products in their portfolio. In summary,

we all know a bear market is somewhere over

the horizon, but based on the leading economic

indicators, we have time to prepare. Take this

time to carefully examine each position in your

portfolio to determine how these companies react

to times of uncertainty. If you need assistance

running a thorough analysis, we are only a call or

email away.

Happy Holidays-Jeremy I. Beck

Last but not least is what I feel is the ideal solu-

tion for our current market situation, which can

be summarized in three words: QUALITY,

QUALITY, QUALITY. Since all the economic

forecasts we use does not put a bear on our

doorsteps in the immediate future, you have time

to dramatically upgrade the quality of your port-

folio. The ideal portfolio would own all “Brand-

name” stocks and discard all the lesser known

companies. Own any companies that are not

profitable? If so, I would suggest replacing these

stocks with companies that have a track record

of expanding profitability, quarter after quarter,

year after year.

Once home to more millionaires per

capita than any other city in the Unit-

ed States, the WNY community be-

came a booming center for trade and

manufacturing with the opening of the

Erie Canal in 1825.

#1: Even with all that snow, city law

prohibits the throwing of snowballs,

except in designated areas.

#2: During the War of 1812, the Brit-

ish burned all but a few of Buffalo’s

150 buildings on December 30, 1813.

One of the only remaining structures

was the local jail.

#3: Built in 1896, the Ellicott Square

Building on Buffalo’s Main St. was

once the largest office complex in the

world.

#4: Originally known as the Statler

Hotel, the Hotel Buffalo (built in 1907)

had private bathing areas and running

water in each room before any other

hotel worldwide.

#5: The annual YMCA Turkey Trot,

which began in 1896, is the oldest

continually running public footrace in

North America.

Statler Lobby—2017

Page 3: Winter 2017 The Aging Bull - Custom Wealth Strategies · expansions and recessions will help you gain an edge when investing for the long term. As noted above, the average bull market

Backdoor Roth IRA, Is It For You?

Introduction

Roth IRAs are a unique and powerful way to

save for retirement. An investor pays taxes up

front on a Roth IRA, but after that, all growth

and withdrawals are tax-free once you reach

age 59 1/2. In addition, Roth IRAs are not sub-

ject to the age 70 1/2 mandatory distributions

rules of Traditional IRAs, which allow your in-

vestments to continue to grow tax-free!

The Issue

An investor with modified adjusted gross in-

come over a certain limit is not able to contrib-

ute to a Roth IRA and enjoy the benefit of tax-

free distributions during retirement. For single

filers in 2017, that income threshold started at

$118,000 and ends at $133,000. In that range,

your contribution is limited and eventually

reaches zero. For married couple filing jointly,

that income threshold starts at $186,000 and

ends at $196,000.

The Solution:

A backdoor Roth IRA allows you to get around income limits by converting a Traditional

IRA into a Roth IRA. Currently, anyone can convert money that they have placed into a

Traditional IRA into a Roth IRA, regardless of how much they earn. As an added bonus,

you can also roll as much money as you want from an existing Traditional IRA into a Roth

IRA.

Keep in mind, you are not avoiding taxes by rolling your Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA! Any

monies that you are rolling out of your Traditional IRA will be taxes as income and you

have to be careful that this additional income does not push you into a higher income tax

bracket in the year of the conversion. On the flip side of the coin, if your income happens

to be unusually low in a particular year, (possibly from a reduction in employment, etc.) you

could take advantage by making a Roth IRA Conversion at that time.

Converting to a Roth (Two Ways):

The first method is to contribute to an existing Traditional IRA; then roll over the money to a

Roth IRA account. The second is to convert an entire Traditional IRA account to a Roth

IRA. In this instance, your Traditional IRA doesn’t have to be new as you can roll over ex-

isting Traditional IRA money to a Roth.

Don’t Hesitate to Ask an Expert:

A Roth IRA is one of countless financial planning tools at our disposal. If you need assis-

tance, feel free to contact Jeremy Beck directly at 716-771-1888 or send him an email at

[email protected].

FREE Investment Seminars

Coming March 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK:

Invest ing in

Uncerta in Times

Presented by:

Jeremy I . Beck

President

Custom Weal th

Strategies

Seminar Dates :

Check the

“EVENTS”

section

of our website

for details!

Where:

Call Gwen, Brooke, Trish

@

716-771-1888

D R E AM P L AN E N J O Y

Page 4: Winter 2017 The Aging Bull - Custom Wealth Strategies · expansions and recessions will help you gain an edge when investing for the long term. As noted above, the average bull market

Custom Wealth Strategies

President, Jeremy I. Beck

4990 Transit Road, Depew, NY 14043

Phone: 716.771.1888 / Email: [email protected]

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed insurance products and services offered through CES Insurance Agency.

Investments are subject to risk, including the loss of principal.

Some investments are not suitable for all investors, and there is no guarantee that any investing goal will be met. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Helping You Meet Your Financial Goals

Our Philosophy:

Showing respect for others and treating people as you would like to be treated

can be lost in today’s world. We will be remembered for the values we teach our

children and how we treat others. I work extremely hard for my client’s success

and I do this with honesty and integrity.

That may sound simple, but it’s something that many advisors seem to have for-

gotten. By working hard and listening to our clients each and every day, Custom

Wealth Strategies now manages more than $200, million in client assets,

a responsibility not taken lightly.

Complimentary, Comprehensive Portfolio Review:

We provide comprehensive financial planning and investment management solu-

tions. Our subject matter experts work collaboratively to craft strategies that inte-

grate and simplify the management of your wealth. As an Independent Financial

Firm, we do not have any proprietary investment products. Which enables us to

act in YOUR best interests, always.

Contact:

Jeremy Beck, President of Custom Wealth Strategies to set up your

complimentary, comprehensive portfolio review. He can be reached directly at

716-771-1888 or email [email protected].

716.771.1888

www.customwealthstrategies.com

Stop in to see our beautifully

remodeled office and meet Jeremy

and his team.