wikibon predictions 2017 3.0

Wikibon’s 2017 Predictions

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Peter BurrisChief Research Officer

David VellanteC0-CEO

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Theme: Put More Data To Work

Data Work

• Customer data• Operational

data• Financial data• Any data

• Superior engagement

• Customer experience• Agile operations• Automation

Agenda

2017 – 6 predictions- What’s driving system architecture?- Do µCPU options matter?- Whither HDDs?- Code in the cloud?- Amazon momentum?- Big data complexity?

2022 – 3 predictions- New IT mandate?- IoT + AR = ?- Is this all there is to digital engagement?

2027 – 1 prediction- Will we all work for AI?

Agenda

2017 – 6 predictions- What’s driving tech architecture?- Do µCPU options matter?- Whither HDDs?- Code in the cloud?- Amazon momentum?- Big data complexity?



What’s Driving Tech Architecture?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• IoT edge use cases begin

shaping decisions in system and application architecture.• Cloud moves to the edge.• Data movement isn’t free• Distributed, autonomous

apps.• Lots of new OT players

impact decisions.

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000IoT Edge Options, 3-year Costs

Onsite Equipment CostsAWS Cloud CostsEdge Data Transmission Costs

Source: Wikibon, “The Vital Role of Edge Computing for IoT: 2016 Update, 11/8/2016

Do µCPU options matter?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• Evolution in workloads

creates an opening for new µCPU technologies, which grab 2-3 points of x86 server market share.• Volume ARM-based servers• GPUs for big data apps• Still room for RISC in pre-

packaged HCI solutions

Devi

ce S

erve

d

Data

Vol

umes

Legacy SoftwareCons

umer

Ec

onom

ics

Factors Driving Server Technologies

Moore’s Law

Whither HDDs?Wikibon 2017 prediction:• Anything in a data center

that physically moves gets less useful and loses share of wallet.• Flash-only data center

on the horizon• Cost avoidance and

superior business value.• Applies to labor, too. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $-

$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50

Worldwide Enterprise HDD & SDD Storage System Revenue, 2013-

2022 ($Billions)

Enterprise Storage System HDD-based RevenueEnterprise Storage System Flash Revenue

$35.6

$46.9

HDD-based Enterprise Storage System Revenue

Flash-based Enterprise Storage System Revenue

Code in the Cloud?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• The new cloud development

stack, centering on containers and APIs, matures rapidly, but institutional habits in development constrain change.• 80% of in-house development

set up work “the old way.”• Big data will contravene

habits.• Time-to-value metrics will be

key.

http://wikibon.com/wp-content/uploads/ContainerArch311.png

Amazon Momentum?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• Amazon has another

banner year, but customers start demanding a “simplicity reset.”• Flexibility spawns

complexity for all.• Tools for managing AWS

billing hitting the market.• Add hybrid cloud and

complexity multiplies.

http://wikibon.com/wp-content/uploads/AWS-STudy-Figure-2.jpg

Big Data Complexity?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• Failure rates for big data

pilots drop by 50% as big vendors – IBM, MSFT, AWS, and Google – bring pre-packaged, problem-based, analytic pipelines to market.• Time-to-value becomes

focus.• Big data app patterns start to

solidify.• Machine learning, cognitive,

AI – all part of the use-case-to-app trend.

http://wikibon.com/wp-content/uploads/Figure-3-Big-Data-SMEs.png

Agenda




New IT Mandate?2022 Wikibon prediction• IT organizations organize work

to generate greater value from data assets by engineering “proximity” of applications and data.• Data value becomes a hot

topic• Catalyzes true private cloud

solutions for legacy applications• “Strategic sourcing” becomes

a reality

Systems of Record

Big Analyti

cs

IoT + AR = ?Wikibon 2022 Prediction• Augmented reality emerges as

a crucial “actuator” for the internet of things – and people (IoT&P).• Businesses still serve

customers• Systems of “enaction”

generate real-world outcomes from analytic models and insights• Innovation flows from social

discovery, too

Internet of Things and

People

Big DataSystems of “Enaction”

Digital Business Management

Digital Business Platform

Is This All There Is To Digital Engagement?

Wikibon 2022 Prediction• IT is given greater responsibility

for management of demand chains, working to unify customer journey designs and operations across all engagement functions.• Data transforms products into

services• Mobile apps too focused on

solving seller’s problem.• Collaboration makes a

comeback – to serve customers

Disc

ove

rEv

aluat

e

Buy

Apply

UseFixProble

m

Solution

Operation

The C

ourts

hip The

Honeymoon

The Marriage

The Customer

Journey

Agenda




Will We All Work For AI?Wikibon 2027 Prediction• AI technology advances far

outpace social advances: Some tasks will be totally replaced, but most jobs will be partially replaced.• Social friction (e.g., loss

avoidance) gates AI technology adoption• AI will tend to complement,

not substitute, for labor.• New design consideration:

“Should we do it?” Source: http://i.imgur.com/V34vlg0.jpg

Conclusions

2017 – 6 predictions- Tech architecture? Edge IoT- µCPU options? Yes- Whither HDDs? Flash- Code in the cloud? Yes, but …- Amazon momentum? Yes- Big data complexity? Bad

2022 – 3 predictions- New IT mandate? Drive value of data- IoT + AR = IoT&P- Is this all there is to digital engagement? Demand chain management

2027 – 1 prediction- Will we all work for AI? Not by 2027

Thank You!

Peter [email protected]@plburris650-387-4703

David [email protected]

@dvellante774-463-3400

wikibon predictions 2017 3.0

Technology