2014 predictions

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Go Micro © 2011 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

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Our industry predictions for the 2014.

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Page 1: 2014 predictions

© 2011 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Go Micro

Page 2: 2014 predictions

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Go Micro

2014 will be the year when everything seems a little bit smaller than it used to be, as markets of one become the norm. The explosion of data, coupled with the increasing ability to sell, manufacture and deliver on a much smaller scale will drive more intimate relationships between buyer and seller – and an expectation of more personalized, one-on-one experiences.

We’ve already seen micro businesses boom over the past twelve months, as the internet continues to breed entrepreneurs and platforms such as Airbnb and Etsy go from specialist interests of the few to the mainstream go-to sites of the masses. And 2014 will see this continue – as people continue to become both the retailer and the consumer simultaneously and interchangeably.

Furthermore, ongoing fears about privacy are ensuring that communications are going micro, too. More and more of us are being driven toward more intimate social platforms, demonstrated by the booming popularity of SnapChat and the recent addition of a private messaging functionality within Instagram.

Page 3: 2014 predictions

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Go Micro

So what does this mean for brands? Well, they’ll not only be competing with niche services and products, but they’ll be competing will smaller, more intimate forms of communications as well. Brands will be forced to find ways to engage their audience with more layered, highly targeted and contextually rich content, while balancing entertainment with utility.

To fuel this, brands will require a wider range of micro campaigns to engage smaller groups, creating swarms of relevant content to generate the macro results needed.

Moreover, will people want to connect with brands on intimate networks such as WhatsApp? Will brands have to become more ‘human’ and speak through multiple voices (with real names and identities) rather than through one big brand voice?

In 2014 we’ll start to see the beginnings of more micro conversations vs. one macro conversation – a game of quality over quantity.

Page 4: 2014 predictions

© 2011 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Datification

Page 5: 2014 predictions

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Datification

In 2014 gamification as it currently stands will give way to a new evolved world of datification.

Wearable tech will unleash a new wealth of data that will make achievements more meaningful, because they will be based on genuine real world behaviour and data.

Our self, our identity, will be quantified based on what we have actually done, not what we claim to have done, which will be inherently more satisfying.

An example of this is Zimride, an online service that brings together drivers and commuters looking for rides. The more drivers arrive to destination on time, the higher their public score and the higher their feeling of satisfaction and self worth.

It’s not a far stretch to see this concept applied to other aspects of life through wearable tech. The ‘wear it and forget about it’ nature of these devices makes it easy and frictionless to participate in a big game of ‘quantification’ of what we’re good at and what we need to improve.

Page 6: 2014 predictions

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Datification

Brands will need to therefore understand what aspect of their product or service experience constitutes a part of their audience’s identity. What is it about using the product and service that someone would want to ‘brag’ about? While before this would have had to rely on apps to track, now it can be ubiquitous and seamless.

Car manufacturers could reward driving style and routes (not just through GPS, but through how we drive as tracked by an accelerometer on our smartwatch), a fashion brand could reward their audience based on the clubs they visit and whether they go there and dance, or just sit around, and a sports brand could challenge you to move more than your favourite athlete on any given day.

Take this into entertainment and the possibilities are endless. Movies could continue after they have ended, by developing a follow up narrative that takes shape based on what route we decide to take back home from the cinema. Tracked via wearable device, then beamed via Bluetooth to our Xbox when we get home, ready to unlock hidden video content.

A brand ‘datification’ ecosystem will be 2014’s award winning mobile campaign idea…

Page 7: 2014 predictions

© 2011 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Don’t take away my serendipity

Page 8: 2014 predictions

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Don’t take away my serendipity

Data has been leveraged in a myriad of ways and is widely hyped as the next frontier of competitive advantage for brands.

Yet, will this irritate people? Will the ultra predictive and real-time nature of many algorithms lead us into a sense of disappointment that serendipity doesn’t exist anymore, that the joy of discovery is gone?

Music affecionados across the world are already lamenting the loss of the thrill of the hunt for new music…it’s all just a hyperpersonalised click away on Spotify now.

Will online fashion retailers be next – taking away the suspense of finding the perfect dress by slapping the algorithmically ideal solution on your personal homepage as soon as you log in?

Page 9: 2014 predictions

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Don’t take away my serendipity

2014 will be the year when we learn to tread this line carefully.

Forward thinking brands will leverage data to their advantage, but the way this will come to life in the eyes of consumers will become an art. Numerous studies show how we are willing to give away data about ourselves, as long as what we get back from brands is of high enough value. Therefore the challenge won’t be not to freak people out, but to make it feel like there is no machine making decisions on their behalf.

For example, new digital retailers will differentiate themselves from the Amazon in your face blatant recommendation model by making the use of data subtle, yet exciting and immersive. Touch first tablet solutions will enable more sensorial experiences that will re-create the thrill of a real world shopping experience, with data led nudges feeling like the equivalent of suggestions from a good friend, rather than a cold machine.

Yes, we all know we’re being tracked, but as long as it feels good and we have a chance to discover things ourselves and feel that thrill of serendipity, it’s ok. We crave it as human beings.

Page 10: 2014 predictions

POWER OF FRAGMENTED AUDIENCES

© 2011 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Page 11: 2014 predictions

POWER OF FRAGMENTED AUDIENCES

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

The traditional world of TV has been turned upside down. The experience of watching TV is no longer a one-way flow; broadcast content is not just created by TV companies; and viewers have the power to watch what they want, when they want and where they want. In a sector where money follows eyeballs, brands and agencies need to understand the change in behaviours and develop tailored and appropriate messages to gain cut through with the audience and command strong ROI In 2013, we don’t just watch TV - we stream, we mirror, we time-shift, we binge and we second-screen. The upside for viewers is a better experience of stories – access to much more content than ever before and the ability to enjoy uninterrupted, unadulterated viewing. This poses some interesting challenges and opportunities for brands and agencies in 2014, where, rightly or wrongly, the TV ad is often at the centre of comms strategy

Page 12: 2014 predictions

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

POWER OF FRAGMENTED AUDIENCES

The balance of power sits with viewers who can change channel, skip through ads or turn their attention to another screen - so we must compel attention.

Sky’s new AdSmart service provides opportunities for levels of personalisation that we are more used to seeing in digital, with ‘push’ messages targeted at households defined by consumer data and location.

2014 should see a change in the way creative agencies approach TV adverts for brands, with opportunities for multiple executions to talk to different audiences.

And this may also challenge how media is bought - the promise of a more sophisticated way to target audiences is likely to command premium spend, but should achieve greater ROI. An interesting innovation in ‘push’ ads that may see bigger budgets returning to TV.

Page 13: 2014 predictions

© 2012 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

POWER OF FRAGMENTED AUDIENCES

2014 should also see ‘pull’ ads evolving to tell stories across platforms. The priority should be developing content that people want to watch and share, with minimal supporting brand messages.

The line between advertising and entertainment is starting to blur. Brands such as Red Bull are successfully moving into branded content space, which credibly provides entertainment, and definitely is not using the space to sell. Others such as Tippex and Burger King are cleverly using digital platforms with multiple executions that tempt the viewer to interact and engage.

As devices get smarter and the data is amalgamated into something useful and meaningful, the role of the traditional TV ad will be challenged. Opportunities for deeper brand experiences, and as a result, better levels of engagement will be there for the taking.

2014 could be an exciting time for brands and agencies to be brave and tell complete stories that fit the behaviours of the audience, rather than the behaviours of the industry.

Page 14: 2014 predictions

CURRENCY SET FREE

© 2011 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

Page 15: 2014 predictions

© 2013 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

In a year dominated by BitCoin (The share prices! The drugs! China!), it became ever more difficult to decide if the crypto currency was the way of the future or a passing fad. The debate will undoubtedly continue to rage without direction or real meaning well into 2014, but that’s not the bit that piqued our interest. Regardless of your opinion on BitCoin, what it represents on a bigger scale is its most potent power – and the most interesting argument we’ve yet to see come to the fore.

In a world where trust of banks is at an all time low and stockbrokers are seen to have broken the economy, BitCoin shows the potential for alternative ways of trading to move from niche pursuits for computer geeks into the mainstream. Couple this with the ongoing diversification and proliferation of virtual wallets and online payment platforms, including the hype over the past twelve months around products such as Coin, and it’s certain that there’s something interesting happening in the way that we all pay. BitCoin is just the tip of the economic iceberg – the poster child for rejection of mainstream money, if you will.

CURRENCY SET FREE

Page 16: 2014 predictions

© 2013 Inferno Ltd | Internal Confidential

But what does this means for marketers? Well, we think the future of money may well be held in brands’ hands. After all, pound coins are little more than a promise and the rejection of traditional institutions provides an opportunity for brands to create their own means of trading. We’ve already seen this on a small scale, with Nike accepting sweat for discounts and Vodafone substituting change for phone credits with their Fakka campaign. However, we believe that 2014 will be the year when this kind of activity goes mainstream.The tech giants known fondly as GAFA (Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon) are already starting to build “vertical stacks” – brand ecosystems that can give users whatever they need, be it hardware, operating system or content. Recently, this has started to expand into payment, with Facebook Credits, Amazon Coins and Google Wallet. Next year will be the time when this really starts to take off, becoming a more mainstream way for brands to behave. In the future, brands will have to think like banks, moving away from vouchers into meaningful, powerful new ways of payment.

CURRENCY SET FREE