why sunshine coast (research summary)
DESCRIPTION
Research report on the Sunshine Coast, AustraliaTRANSCRIPT
Research Summary
Why the Sunshine Coast
Helping people secure great properties
Disclaimer: This material is provided to you to summarize source information on the development and infrastructure currently underway and planned for the Sunshine Coast. The information presented is provided purely as information and should not be construed as specific investment recommendations. No
predictions of the effect on the growth or otherwise of property values are made or implied.
The laws relating to property, investment, taxation, benefits, and the handling of money are constantly changing and are often subject to changes in government policy, and while every care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the material contained herein at the time of publication and presentation, neither the author, promoters nor the publishers will bear any responsibility or liability for any action taken by any person, persons or organisations on the purported
basis of information contained in the material.
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no person, persons or organisations should invest monies or take other action on reliance of the material contained in this material;, rather you should seek independent advice (whether by expert advice or otherwise) of the appropriateness of any such action and
take into account your personal circumstances.
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IntroductionIf you have dealt with us before (or at least read our Welcome to Investor Property brochure) you will know that one of our core convictions is to ensure the properties we offer are in well researched areas. We were always excited about what is happening in South East Queensland, particularly the Sunshine Coast, and decided to put together this summary to help you understand the strong property investing fundamentals the region offers. Fundamentals that cause us to believe the Sunshine Coast provides outstanding opportunities over the next 10 – 20 years.
There’s an old adage in property that “all property doubles over time” and the statistics support this (if you do some research – the common comment about property doubling every 7 to 10 years works right back to the early 1900’s). We don’t see any reason for this to change in the next 100 years, however we also believe that there are other drivers that help property grow in value. We look for these drivers when we conduct our research in order to maximise the potential returns. Our aim is to do better than just ‘flow with the tide’ (albeit a tide that’s made many people wealthy over time).
Our hope is this summary will not only provide you a good understanding of the fundamentals you should be looking at in your own research as you grow your portfolio, but also give you the confidence to invest on the Sunshine Coast (if not, at least you’ve got some knew ‘stats’ for your next BBQ!)
Population GrowthThe first factor to understand is that from 2001 to 2031 forecasts suggest we are going to see the population of the Sunshine Coast double! In the 2001 Census figures, 247,200 people live on the coast; projections issued by the State Government have the Sunshine Coast breaking through the 500,000 people barrier by 2031 and more than 1,000,000 between 2040 and 2050 if current trends continue unabated. As can be seen by the chart, this growth speeds up from approximately 2007 to 2026, which is now. This population growth comes from two key areas: southern states migration and people moving from overseas (mainly the United Kingdom and South Africa). Interestingly, reports in September 2009 suggest Australia’s growth could have been underestimated by 25%!
Keep in mind that every time a new family moves from Brisbane, Melbourne, London, Johannesburg, etc, the first thing they need is somewhere to live. A large number arrive, rent for the first 6-12 months then buy. There is also a significant percentage who arrive and look for readily established housing straight away. Many investors on the Coast have a second income called ‘building speccy’s’ for those new arrivals that are so happy to be in their new piece of heaven and they don’t want to wait 6 months to build. We often see an up lift in valuation on properties being built for this reason (but be cautioned, the term ‘speccy’ is short for speculation; this strategy and, importantly, the type of house, location and number of other people using the same strategy can have a large bearing on its effectiveness).
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2001 2006 2011 2026 2031
247,200
295,100
383,300
473,300
501,200
Forecast
Recent and Forecast
Population Growth -
Sunshine Coast
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Changing Household size
As can be seen in the graph below, over the next 13 years the average number of people living in each home across Australia is forecast to reduce from 2.6 people per home to 2.25 people. This is one of the key drivers being placed on developers for smaller lots. For some of us, we need to reset the mind that smaller homes are back in vogue. There’s always a market for large homes but the population dynamics are changing.
Weekly Growth
Perhaps one of the greatest drivers on the Coast is this one: every week we need 77 new homes (based on current household sizes) yet only 65 new homes are being built - that’s 624 homes this year alone that we’re short! At present this shortfall is being covered by reducing the number of rental vacancies; but that ‘band aid’ can only stretch so far.
Population Housing
Arrivals 333 Requirement 77
Departures 132 Completions 65
Net Weekly Increase 201 Net Weekly Short fall 12
The State Government forecasts we will need approximately 98,500 new dwellings built on the Sunshine Coast by 2031. Based on our current rate of supply, the shortfall could increase to over 1,100 properties per year fueling the already, pent up demand!
Impact of population growth
With fast population growth opportunity arise. The ‘magical’ self sustaining number of 500,000 brings with it better motorways, public transport, an airport that provides variety of flight times and destinations, theme parks, diversified employment opportunities and the list goes on. The downside of building a population on the run is we get use to road works as areas are expanded (next time you are stuck in road works, keep your eye out for why that work is happening, this might just be the next area that’s about to take a capital growth upswing).
As a property investor it is important to note that this growth, the low level of required completions and the decreasing average household size suggests the underlying demand on property will increase for some time. Thereby placing upward pressure on prices and rents and downward pressure on vacancy rates. Very good news indeed.
2008 2011 2016 2021
2.60
2.36 2.31 2.25
Forecast
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Infrastructure and DevelopmentThe old catch cry in property has always been ”location, location”. As property investors however, we believe it should be “infrastructure, infrastructure” (which is not really that different to location, just with some further long term analysis attached). People are seeking easy access to parts of the Coast via motorways, public transport (will become so much more important in 10-15 years) and sound road systems. We’re looking to live in communities where the kids have easy access to great schools, where there’s a Supermarket with the 10-15 convenience shops on the outside (the baker, cafes, chemist, pizza shop, etc). People want to know that where they live has a sense of belonging and local councils seek to maintain the cultural integrity of the area (parks, beaches, building height, etc). This encourages developers to strike a balance between urban jungles and open spaces. People want to live in a community where they can take their kids to a park, perhaps overlook a lake and enjoy a BBQ.
Today, the infrastructure has the responsibility of allowing families to live in such a community, seemingly their own little village, whilst being able to step out of that community and within a few minutes be on a motorway to the office or to visit a friend in another community.
The Sunshine Coast, particularly in the southern reaches, is seeing an explosion of growth including:
New University Hospital
New CBD in Kawana, Caloundra and Maroochydore
The development of a multi-modal transport corridor
Several large estates being brought forward by up to nine years
Some of these infrastructure projects are discussed below.
New University Hospital
Nestled in the heart of Kawana is a site that will represent the Sunshine Coast’s new University Hospital. This site is scheduled to open in 2016. This University Hospital will employ 3,500 people and as a training facility, we’ll see a significant number of students and post-graduates completing their studies in this hospital. Part of the plan of development is a road and rail network (discussed in the ‘CAMCOS’ section) joining the hospital with communities around the Coast. This location will also drive a significant need for housing close by. There are some impressive land communities around this location and we’ve watched many of our astute buyers invest in these locations before the anticipated ‘upswing’.
The Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) states that a typically large new hospital generates an increase in housing in the vicinity of approximately 20% within the first 2-3 year period.
••••
Main Roads – Connecting Queenslandwww.mainroads.qld.gov.au
Sunshine Coast Multi-Modal Transport Corridor
November 2008 Project area
Maroochy Boulevard
MOOLOOLABA
MAROOCHYDORE
BUDERIM
SIPPY DOWNS
PALMVIEW
ALEXANDRAHEADLAND
MOUNTAIN CREEKMOOLOOLAH RIVER NATIONAL PARK
MINYAMA
BUDDINA
WARANA
PARREARRA
BOKARINA
Nicklin Way
Erang Street
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KAWANA WAY INTERCHANGE
SIPPY DOWNSINTERCHANGE
BUDERIM-MOOLOOLABAINTERCHANGE
MAROOCHYDORE ROADINTERCHANGE
MAROOCHY BOULEVARDINTERCHANGE
CREEKSIDE INTERCHANGE
MOOLOOLAH RIVER INTERCHANGE
KAWANA TOWN CENTRE
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EXISTING
MAJOR ARTERIAL ROADS
SUB ARTERIAL ROADS
MAJOR LOCAL ROADS
PROPOSED
CAMCOS RAIL LINE
KISS ‘n’ RIDE RAIL STATIONS
PARK ‘n’ RIDE RAIL STATIONS
CALOUNDRA-MOOLOOLABA ROAD
SUNSHINE MOTORWAY UPGRADE
SUB ARTERIAL ROAD
INTERCHANGE PROVIDING ON/OFF
ACCESS (APPROX LOCATION)
FUTURE SUNSHINE COAST
UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL
LEGEND
P
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University Expansion, New Sippy Downs CBD and Technology Park
The Sunshine Coast University at Sippy Downs is centrally placed being just 10 minutes to the Mooloolaba beach and only 2 minutes from the Bruce Highway (making the Brisbane commute less than an hour). This facility is set to expand to over 5,000 students by 2011 with the land estates in the surrounding area seeing good rental yields and low vacancies.
Sippy Downs also has a new CBD planned with a technology park going through its’ final stages of approval at present. This technology park will house some 80,000 square metres of lettable space (to give you some idea, a standard office is around 80 metres!). This area will have fast broadband capacity and will most likely become the hub for many technology savvy businesses across the Coast. Next to this is the Palmview estate which is about to be released.
Palmview at Sippy Downs
This is where the growth really starts to be seen! The community of Palmview will be located below the Sippy Downs / Bell Flower suburbs. The community of Palmview will be home to some 18,000 people. There are approximately 5,500 lots available in this new community and the estate was expected to be released in 2018. Due to the fast growth however, State and Federal governments are placing pressure on local governments and this land release approval has been brought forward from 2018 to 2009! To help you understand the scale of this community, the newly released and very popular Brightwater estate will have approximately 1,200 lots, making Palmview some 4 ½ times larger.
Maroochydore CBD
There has been much controversy over recent years regarding where the heart of the Sunshine coast is, and one of the keys to this discussion has been the Maroochydore precinct. Local Government have recently released the Maroochydore Centre Position Paper outlining the doubling of the current Sunshine Plaza (with David Jones as the anchor tenant of this new stage), the release of new 10 level unit complexes (with 4,000 units being released by 2031), the revised usage of the Horton Park Golf Course, the linking of the rail network into the CBD, the relocation of the town centre to be adjacent to the Sunshine plaza (off Plaza Parade) and the rezoning of most unit complexes to further include retail and office space on the lower levels.
We see Maroochydore as a place to work, live and enjoy life over the coming years.
DR
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16THE CONCEPT PLAN & STRATEGIESDRAFT
Precinct Plan
1. The City Centre CC1. City Centre CC2. Civic Square CC3. Sunshine Plaza CC4. Big Top CC5. Retail Frame CC6. Duporth Mixed CC7. East Mixed Use
2. The Boulevards B1. First Boulevard B2. Maroochy Boulevard B3. Aerodrome Road & Neighbourhood Centre B4. Maud Street Business B5. Maroochydore Road Commercial
3. Neighbourhoods R1. Cotton Tree R2. Bungama Street R3. Evans Street R4. Wise’s Farm R5. Dalton Drive R6. Parkview R7. Northern Residential
4. Open Space OS1. City Parklands OS2. Cotton Tree Beach OS3. Cotton Tree Open Sports Ground OS4. Sports Ground
Precinct Boundary
Proposed Railway Line (Elevated)
OS2
R1
OS1
CC4
OS4
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R1
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R6
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CC3
OS3
R7
B4
R3
R4
B1
CC1
CC7
CC5
B3
CC2
Public RealmMixed Use Development
Business
High Density Mixed Use
Neighbourhood Centre
Community/ Civic Facility
High Density Residential
Park/Open Space
Low Density Residential
Medium Density Residential
400m, 5 minute and 800m, 10 minute Walkable Catchments
'The draft Concept Plan is not a statutory document. It is the outcome of an urban design Process and work in progress towards the preparation of a structure plan and planning scheme amendment.The document holds no statutory weight and cannot be used in the assessment of development applications and cannot be relied on by the development industry from which to make decisions or make future claims for compensation.'
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ProposedBusiness and
Technology Precinct
ProposedSippy Downs
Town Centre
University &Other Education
Precinct
ProposedKawana Town
Centre
Mooloolah RiverNational Park
BirtinyaWetlands
(DPA4)
PalmviewConservation
Area
ProposedRegional
Hospital
S i p p yCr e e k
Mo ol oo la h
Ri ve r
This map is conceptual and illustrates broad land use intent only.
The map should be read in conjunction with the development
intents and strategies outlined in the Palmview Position Paper.
Local drainage lines not shown on this map are required to be
protected.
Map 2.1 Palmview Preliminary Land Use
Concept Map
Map 2.1 Palmview Preliminary Land Use
Concept Map
Pa lmview
Cadastral Boundary
Structure Plan Area Boundary
Major Waterways
Existing Major Road Network
Multi-Modal Transpor t Corridor
Multi-Modal Transport Corridor
(Indicative)
Proposed MMTC Interchange
CAMCOS Alignment
n¤ CAMCOS Stations (Indicative)
=k Possible Connection to Service Road
Palmview Concept Elements
400m and 800m Walkable Catchment
!! Public and Active Transport Only Link
(Greenlink)
Major Roads
Public Transport Loop Service
Distr ict Centre
Local Centre
Mixed Density Residential
Medium Density Residential/
Mixed Uses
Approved Residential Development
Distr ict Sport and Recreational Park
Sub-Regional Intra Urban Break (200m)
Open Space
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000250Metres
This Council does not warrant the correctness of plan or any information contained thereon. Council
accepts no liability or responsibility inrespect of the plan and any information or inaccuracies thereon.
Any person relying on this plan shall do so at their own risk. Base Data supplied by the Department of
Natural Resources, Mining and Energy and reproduced byarrangement with the Queensland Government.
Thismap must not be reproduced in any form, whole or part, without the express written permission of theSunshine Coast Regional Council.
Scale 1: 30,000 at Paper Size A3
North
Created On:
SunshineCoast Regional CouncilLocked Bag72SunshineCoast MailCentreQld 4560
[T] 07 5420 8953[F] 07 5420 8929[E] [email protected][W] www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au
Designed By:
[chun9/02/200910:25:55 AM
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Note: Indicative only. Finalgreenlink alignment subject
to further investigation.
Note: Indicative only. Finalgreenlink alignment subject
to further investigation.
Note:Indicative only. FinalGreenlink alignment subjectto further investigation.
Note:Access to Bruce Highway service roadonly (no Interchange). Location is indicativeonly and subject to further investigation.
Note: Major Roads within the Meridan Plainsarea are subject to further investigation inrelation to alignment.
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New Kawana CBD
With the University Hospital about to commence construction and the release of several land estates, we are watching a new business community emerge in Kawana. If you drive down Kawana Way (a road that wasn’t there some 3 years ago) you’ll see tens of thousands of square metres of office space, the largest home maker centre on the Coast and a large vacant area ready for Kawana’s CBD, incorporating a shopping centre and much more. The Kawana area has more than 10 years of land sub divisions surrounding it and we see this area as the ‘Robina’ of the Sunshine Coast. This new town centre will be directly linked to Caloundra and Maroochydore via the new Caloundra-Mooloolaba Road and there will be a major interchange of rail, public transport and road networks. This new CBD is a contender for the ‘heart’ of the Coast with many businesses relocating to this area. With the hospital, a new shopping centre as well as the thousands of families moving to this area, we see this as one of the key hubs of the Coast.
New Caloundra CBD and Transport Oriented Community (TOC)
Caloundra will feature strongly in the future growth of the Coast. Caloundra is the southern tip of the Sunshine Coast, making it the closest access to Brisbane. The CBD of Caloundra has long needed a refresh and there will be effectively two CBD’s of Caloundra into the future. The existing CBD has been re-zoned to include six level combined retail/living and over time will be rebuilt.
The new CBD and TOC will be located at the current Caloundra aerodrome site. The aerodrome will cease operations from 2012 and a new CBD with an emphasis on 10 level unit complexes mixed with living, retail and office space will become the new heart of Caloundra. This will be underpinned by a shopping centre and will be the transport link that will allow light rail and public transport to operate from your doorstep to other key parts of the Coast and Brisbane.
Caloundra South
Caloundra South has been put under the same ‘pull forward scheme’ as Palmview. Caloundra South is a Stockland owned parcel of land which is situated below the current Bellvista estate and planned TOC. This estate will be the Sunshine Coast’s closest community to Brisbane. This land estate is not like any other on the coast as it is estimated to be 23,750 lots creating homes for some 50,000 people!
This estate alone will effectively double the Caloundra community and very much change the demographic of this part of the Coast. We believe the proximity to Brisbane and the size of this estate will greatly shape the southern corridor.
Whilst previously locked up until 2018, we expect to see the first land sales late 2010.
Peachester
Glass HouseMountains
Beerburrum
Pelican Waters
Palmview Birtinya
Maroochydore
Stev
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Coast
Railw
ayIrw
in Bruc
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Way Caloundra Road
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Nick
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Beerwah
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Conondale
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MalenyMooloolah
KawanaTown Centre
Buddina
Mooloolaba
Caloundra City Centre
Caloundra South
Golden Beach
C o r a l
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COOLOOLA SHIRE
Caloundra AerodromeTransit Oriented Community AreaTOC1
AroonaTransit Oriented Community Area TOC2
BirtinyaTransit Oriented Community Area TOC3
Legend
TRANSIT ORIENTED COMMUNITY AREA ELEMENTS
TRANSIT ORIENTED COMMUNITY AREAS
OTHER ELEMENTS
URBAN FOOTPRINT (REGIONAL PLAN)
RURAL LIVING AREA (REGIONAL PLAN)
INVESTIGATION AREA (REGIONAL PLAN)
WATERWAY OR WATERBODY (REGIONAL PLAN)
EXISTING TRANSPORT CORRIDOR
PROPOSED FUTURE TRANSPORT CORRIDOR
PROPOSED CAMCOS PUBLIC TRANSPORT CORRIDOR(Subject to State Government Investigation and Approval)
PROPOSED CAMCOS PUBLIC TRANSPORT CORRIDOR STATION(Subject to State Government Investigation and Approval)
LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA BOUNDARY
REGIONAL LANDSCAPE AND RURAL PRODUCTION AREA (REGIONAL PLAN)
Caloundra City
Transit Oriented CommunityAreas
g gy
6.3map
4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 kilometres0 2.0
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This Council does not warrant the correctness of this plan or any information contained thereon. Council accepts no liability or responsibility inrespect of the plan or any information or inaccuracies thereon. Any person relying on this plan shall do so at their own risk. This map must not bereproduced in any form, whole or part without the express written consent of Caloundra City Council. Base data supplied by the Department of Natural Resources, Mining and Energy and reproduced by arrangement with the Queensland Government. © Office of Urban Management (Department of Local Government & Planning, Sport and Recreation), June 2005. Based on Data provided with thepermission of the Office of Urban Management, Department of Local Government & Planning, Sport and Recreation. While every care is taken toensure the accuracy of this data, the Queensland Department of Local Government & Planning, Sport and Recreation makes no representations orwarranties about its accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability.
EXISTING RAILWAY CORRIDOR AND RAILWAY STATION
Bruce Highway
Caloundra Road
CurrimundiCaloundra
Pelican Waters
Kawana
MaroochydoreMooloolaba
Caloundra South
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CAMCOS / Multi-Modal Transport Corridor
CAMCOS is the acronym of the Caboolture to Maroochydore Corridor Study. This study has looked at the growth of the Sunshine Coast and identified the connecting roads and light rail networks that will be required to support this growth, effectively gelling the southern half (Maroochydore south) of the Coast into one greater city.
Over the past several years, we have seen connecting roads double and even triple in size in readiness for this amalgamation. A light rail network linking up many of the communities in the southern reaches (Maroochydore, Mooloolaba, Kawana, Caloundra) is planned in conjunction with a road network which will link the Caloundra region to the Sunshine Motorway and Bruce Highway. Parts of this road are already completed.
New Theme Park
With the growth of the coast into a greater city, theme parks are the next great attraction. Currently there is one application in council for a water theme park on a large site on the Caloundra Road (almost opposite the Corbould Park Race Course).
These types of attractions will encourage a greater degree of tourists visiting the Sunshine Coast over the Gold Coast expanding the tourism industry here. From a property investment perspective this change in ‘holiday destination’ will have a major impact on the constant migration from southern states who will effectively make their ‘sea change’ to this region.
Summary
While some people reading this document may be discouraged (especially locals or those who frequent on holidays) with the transition of the Sunshine Coast from being several minor communities into a greater city, as property investors the greatest story here is that demand for housing on the Sunshine Coast is most likely to outstrip supply for the next few decades. This of course being one of the key underlying drivers of property price and rental growth. As we reach the population milestone of 500,000 people, there will be a change in demographic, a change in culture and the odd frustration about roadworks, however, the Sunshine Coast has watched and learnt from the explosion of the Gold Coast over the past 15 years and is adopting a more controlled infrastructure program. The Coast will most likely have a better mix of urban living entwined with a park style open space feel. The road and rail network will be critical to the controlled growth and there will be many investors who will reap the rewards of steady long term investment into one of the worlds fastest growing greater cities. To be only one hour from Brisbane in a climate that lures thousands every year is not something that can be replicated. We’re excited for the growth and we look forward to seeing many of you reap the rewards we believe are on offer here.
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Indicative Development Overview Map
Peachester
Glass HouseMountains
Beerburrum
Pelican Waters
South
Palmview
Maroochydore
Bruc
e
Bruce
Steve
Stev
e
CAMCOS
CAMCOS
CA
MCO
S
Nor
th
Coa
st
Railw
ay Irwin
Nic
klin
Way
Sunshine
Motorway
Irwin
Way
Way
Caloundra Road
Hig
hway
Highway
Landsborough
Beerwah
GlenviewMooloolah
Kawana
Mooloolaba
Caloundra
Maleny
Witta
C o r a l
P A C I F I C
O C E A N
S e a
P u m i c e s t o ne
Ch
an
ne
l
CaloundraSouth
Caloundraa
hinnnee
SippyDowns
BellvistaEstate
adale LakesLa esLaLIvavaEstate
University Hospital Site
New Kawana CBD
New CBD& TOC
University, CBD & Technology ParkPrecinct
KawanaIslandwayMotor
BrightwaterEstate
Sunshine
WoodgroveEstate
Birtinya IslandEstate
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Australian Population Changes
Source Information:
1. Australian Beureau of Statistics 6. Queensland Health, Sunshine Coast Hospital Project Overview March 2008
2. Sunshine Coast Regional Council (various planning and infrastructure papers) 7. Urban Development Institute of Australia
3. Queensland Government - Infrastructure & Planning, SEQ Draft Regional Plan 2009 8. University of the Sunshine Coast (www.usc.edu.au)
4. Queensland Transport, Caboolture to Maroochyore Corridor Study 9. RP Data / myRPData
5. Queensland Government - Main Roads, The Multi-Modal Transport Corridor 10. www.realestate.com.au
Disclaimer: This material is provided to you to summarize source information on the development and infrastructure currently underway and planned for the Sunshine Coast. The information presented is provided purely as information and should not be construed as specific investment recommendations. No
predictions of the effect on the growth or otherwise of property values are made or implied.
The laws relating to property, investment, taxation, benefits, and the handling of money are constantly changing and are often subject to changes in government policy, and while every care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the material contained herein at the time of publication and presentation, neither the author, promoters nor the publishers will bear any responsibility or liability for any action taken by any person, persons or organisations on the purported
basis of information contained in the material.
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no person, persons or organisations should invest monies or take other action on reliance of the material contained in this material;, rather you should seek independent advice (whether by expert advice or otherwise) of the appropriateness of any such action and
take into account your personal circumstances.
Helping people secure great properties
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www.investorproperty.com.au