whither global governance? 1 faith & doubt hope & fear 2
TRANSCRIPT
Religion and Science• RELIGION & SCIENCE both respond to mystery• *Important questions* lead us to both religion and science
• Paul Tillich, The Dynamics of Faith, p24 (HarperOne 2001):• Doubt “is always present as an element in the structure of faith.”
• Religion: – In spite of all doubts, we have faith
• Science: – In spite of all evidence, we have doubt
• So religion vs. science is *not* about “faith vs. proof”• But faith vs. skepticism
• Science offers no end; religion offers faith
• Both values are important:– Science good for pushing for more progress– Religion good for addressing all of science’s failures 3
Applying our IO lessons to your lives
• In science, we have the luxury of continuous doubt
• In religion, we have the luxury of faith
• In policy-making, there are no luxuries
• You’ll need evidence, skepticism, and faith!
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One Love
• “Let’s get together to fight this Armageddon so when the man comes there will be no doom”
• Practical lesson: Cooperation results from “Armageddons”
• …hopefully to avoid the next one!
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1929 vs. 2008http://alltta.wordpress.com/2009/03/05/comparing-the-dow-jones-1929-1930-with-2008-2009/
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Treaty of Versailles (1919–20): League of Nations
Keynes begins discussions on an “international loan”
1918
Stock Market Crash!
World War II (1939-45)
United Nations (1945)
Bretton Woods: IMF/World Bank (1944)
GATT: 1947
Smoot-Hawley (1930) Beggar-thy-neighbor
1944
15 years from crash to institutional solutions…
1929
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Latin American Debt Crisis (1982)
1980
Tequila Crisis (1995)
2008 Financial Crisis
“Bretton Woods” moment… 2023?...
Or beyond?
East Asian Financial Crisis (1997-1999)
2023?
Lay out architecture now, so we’re ready when it comes…
20081990 2000
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Is regionalism our future?Customs Unions: A real sacrifice of sovereignty
Common tariff policy with rest of the world 13
Baby steps
• Asia– Asian Development Bank– ASEAN + 3– Chiang Mai Initiative– Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
• North America– NAFTA
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Main IO take-away from the class:
Narrow and deep Broad and deep
may be more effective than
Broad and shallow Broad and deep
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• Think big about global governance changes
• We’re part of an ongoing global conversation
• New multi-polar world
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Typical “uniform” or rectangular distribution (histogram)
Fre
quen
cy
Poor Low-income
Lower-middle
Middle Upper-middle
High-income
Rich
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Typical symmetrical distribution (histogram)F
requ
ency
Poor Low-income
Lower-middle
Middle Upper-middle
High-income
Rich
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Implicit throughout the class
• Theory– Philosophy (from ancient to modern thinkers)– Logic (game theory)
• Empirics– Data (qualitative, quantitative)
• History• Statistics
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Skills
• Become well-read
• Learn to write well
• Learn statistics
• Learn a foreign language (fluent!)
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Breadth of undergraduate education & life opportunities
Breadth of undergraduate education
Life
opp
ortu
nitie
s
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Graduate school is different (not harder)
• Fewer hours in class, more hours studying
• Greater opportunity costs
• Grades not important
• Be focused!
• Statement of purpose
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Writing• First sentence – most important!
• Organize your argument into sections– What is the question?– What is your answer (or what is the debate)?– What is your methodology?– What is your evidence?– Why should we care?
• Lay this out in the 1st para
• Return to each in its own section (paper outline):1. Background literature2. Your theory/argument3. Method4. Evidence5. The intro/conclusion should answer the “so what” question 32
Next step:
• “What are you going to do when you graduate?”=• “How are you doing?”=• “Hello”
• I.e., well intentioned but vacuous question
• Don’t let it bring you down!
• No one knows @ 22 what life will present them
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