where’s the peak? - hotelnewsnow.com u.s., revpar % change and 12mma “change of change”,...
TRANSCRIPT
Agenda • Total US Review
• Scale Review
• Segmentation
• Markets – Special Focus on NYC & Houston
• Pipeline
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Data Presentations”
2015 (prelim): Decelerating Occ / ADR Growth Rates
% Change
• Room Supply 1.1%
• Room Demand 2.9%
• Occupancy 65.6% 1.8%
• A.D.R. $120 4.4%
• RevPAR $79 6.3%
• Room Revenue 7.6%
Total Year 2015(p) Results
Total US RevPAR: NYC and Houston Dragged
Total US : +6.3% NYC: -1.5% Houston: -3.2% Total US excluding NYC & Houston: +6.9%
*RevPAR % Change 2015 (prelim)
But: 2015 Was A Record Setting Year (Again)
Most Rooms Sold EVER Most Rooms Revenue EVER
Highest Occupancy EVER
Quarterly RevPAR % Change: Slowing Down Off Record Highs
7.7 7.7
5.0
6.4 6.1
4.7 5.4
4.9
6.6
7.9
9.1 8.9
8.0
6.5 5.9
4.9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015
* Total US, RevPAR % Change, by Quarter, Q1 2012 – Q4 2015p
Demand Growth Rates Slow. Supply Growth Now Back Over 1%.
-0.8
-4.7
-7.1
7.7
2.9
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 12/2015(p)
ADR Growth Steady. Occupancy Growth Decelerating Quickly.
-3.4
-6.7
-9.7
6.8 7.5
4.4
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
Occ % Change ADR % Change
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 12/2015(p)
RevPAR Growth: Smooth Sailing For The Next 18 Months (?)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 2000 2010 Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 12/2015 (p)
56 Months 70 Mo. 80 Months 31 Mo
Why Wall Street Is So Blue: Growth of RevPAR Growth Is Slowing
-18%
-9%
0%
9%
18%
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RevPAR % Change
Growth of Growth
Growth of Growth RevPAR % Change
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change and 12MMA “Change of Change”, 1/2015 – 12/2015 (p)
Chain Scale Review
Scales: Strong Demand Growth. Upscale Supply Increases
0.6
1.2
4.0
1.3
0.0
0.2
1.2
2.1
4.8
3.3
2.2 1.7
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply % Change Demand % Change
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, November 2015 YTD
Scales RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven
0.6 0.8 0.8 1.9 2.2
1.5
4.4 4.2 5.1
4.4 4.3 5.1
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
ADR % Change
Occupancy % Change
*RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, November 2015 YTD
Scales: Absolute OCC Very Healthy On The Upper End
76.3 75.4 75.6
68.9
60.7 59.3
75.8 74.8 75.0
67.6
59.4 58.4
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
2015 2014
*OCC %, by Scale, November YTD 2015 & 2014
Segmentation
Transient ADR Growth Healthy As Occupancies Remain High
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 11/2015
Group Demand Growth Slows As Hotels Are Full
-2%
-1%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 11/2015
Top 25 Group RevPAR %: NYC and Oahu Saw Declines 13.5
9.5 9.2 8.5 8.1 8.1 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.5 2.9
1.3 1.3 0.9
-0.1 -0.3
-5.5 -5.5
*Group RevPAR % Change, Top 25 Markets, YTD 11/15
MEETING SIZE
Meetings of 1000+ attendees make up the largest major meeting segment and are on the rise.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Less than 300 300-999 1000+
2013 OVERALL ATTENDANCE AT LARGEST MEETING PLANNED IN LAST YEAR
*DMAP 2015, a national survey of meeting planes: www.str.com/products/destinationmap
Markets
RevPAR November 2015 YTD: Winner: CA. Loser: Oil Markets.
Market RevPAR %
Change Market RevPAR %
Change
Macon/Warner Robbins, GA 19.0 Ohio Area -1.5
San Jose/Santa Cruz, CA 18.1 Houston, TX -3.0
Oakland, CA 16.3 West Virginia -3.4
Chattanooga, TN-GA 15.8 Texas North -3.6
California North Central 14.8 New Mexico South -4.5
Fort Myers, FL 14.8 Augusta, GA-SC -7.0
Portland, OR 14.5 Oklahoma Area -9.6
Knoxville, TN 14.1 Texas South -10.2
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 13.7 Texas West -18.2
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 13.7 North Dakota -19.9 *November 2015 YTD RevPAR: Best / Worst Performing Markets
November 2015 YTD: High Occ = Higher ADR. (Except in NYC ???)
Market OCC % ADR % Change
Nashville, TN 74.8 9.2 Phoenix, AZ 66.7 8.4
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 85.2 8.3 Seattle, WA 77.8 8.2
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 72.4 7.6
Washington, DC-MD-VA 72.4 3.2 Oahu Island, HI 85.1 2.9
New Orleans, LA 70.6 2.1 Houston, TX 69.7 1.8
New York, NY 84.8 -1.4
* November 2015 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets
37 mos 41 42 44 47 48 55 56 56 59 59 59 61 62 68 69 71 73 73 74 76 86
95 102+
109+
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
San Francisco Miami Oahu
Boston Nashville
Los Angeles Denver Detroit
Houston Anaheim
Seattle Dallas
St. Louis Minneapolis New Orleans
Orlando Tampa
Atlanta San Diego
Chicago Washington Philadelphia
Norfolk New York
Phoenix
Actual
Estimated
RevPAR Peak-Trough-Recovery Timeframe
YTD 10/15
NYC
13.5
6.2 5.2
4.4
2.6
-1.4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NYC RevPAR YTD : A Clear Trend
* NYC RevPAR % Change, November YTD, by year
13.5 6.2 5.2 4.4 2.6
-1.4
81.2 81.3 83.4 84.6 84.8 84.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RevPAR % Change Occupancy
NYC YTD RevPAR & Occupancy: Full House But No RevPAR Growth
* NYC RevPAR % Change & Absolut Occupancy, November YTD, by year
NYC Segmentation YTD: Group Demand In NYC Very Soft
-0.7 -1.0
-5.5
0.2
Occupancy ADR
Transient % Change Group % Change
*NYC Segmentation % Change, by KPI, November 2015 YTD
1.5
-2.0
-1.3
1.3 1.1
-1.5
-2.1 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independents
NYC Scale RevPAR YTD: Mostly Depressing
* NYC Chain Scale RevPAR % Change, November YTD 2015
Houston
Houston: Oil Price Predicts Houston Room Demand
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
2014 2015
Crude Oil Futures Price / Barrel (LHS)
Demand % Change (RHS)
*Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. Houston, TX vs. Room Demand % Change 1/2014 – 11/2015 http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
$/brl Demand % Change
-4.8
-4.1
-5.3
-4.4
-3.1
-0.4
0.3
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independents
Houston Scale RevPAR YTD: No Comment
* Houston Chain Scale RevPAR % Change, November YTD 2015
Pipeline
US Pipeline: Construction Today Will Impact 2016 / 2017
Phase 2015 2014 % Change
In Construction 141 117 21%
Final Planning 176 126 -40%
Planning 139 170 -18%
Under Contract 457 413 11%
*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, November 2015 and 2014
Limited Service Construction Has Been Strong For 2 Years
6.9 11.8
49.6 47.6
5.5 1.8
18.2
Luxury Upscale Midscale Unaffiliated
*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, November 2015
69%
Pipeline (’000s rooms): Top 26 Markets Have ~50% Of U/C Rooms
68.9 72.4 71.0
105.5
62.1
77.7
Top 26 Markets Rest of the US
In Construction
Final Planning
Planning
*US Pipeline, Rooms (‘000s), Top 26 Markets vs. All Other Markets, November 2015
Notable Calendar Shifts 2016
Super Bowl: From Phoenix to San Francisco Easter: From April to March Jewish Holidays: From September to October
April and December will have two more Weekend days (Net +)
May will have two fewer Weekend days (Net -)
‘Let the Numbers Speak – Where’s the Peak?’
Monday, January 25 at
3:00pm.