where does the digital landscape take us? nov 11, 2009
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Presentation from the conference "The Digital Landscape"TRANSCRIPT
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Where does the digital landscape take us?
Björn Elmberg, Cybercom
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Agenda
• 2 core drivers
What’s behind Internet’s ever growing significance
• 6 observations
Where are we now, what trends are emerging, what
can we expect from 2009/2010
• 4 recommendations
Some thoughts about the future
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Two core drivers
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”Technology is shifting the power away from the
editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”
Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
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Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
”Technology is shifting the power away from the
editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”
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Amaras law
Technology People
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2009-11-09 e.g. name of the presenter7
“If I had asked people what they
wanted, they would have said faster
horses”
Henry Ford (July 30, 1863 – April 7, 1947)
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2009-11-09 e.g. name of the presenter8
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“Nearly 40% of consumers said they
would buy a vehicle online [...] if that
capability existed.”
2009-11-09 e.g. name of the presenter9
Cap Gemini, Cars Online 09/10http://www.us.capgemini.com/DownloadLibrary/files/Capgemini_CarsOnline_1009.pdf
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7 observations
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1.
Information overflow generates the need for context, structure and filtering
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• Search engines
– Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha
• Aggregators and filters
– Friendfeed, intelligent RSS readers, Tweetdeck
• Personalization
– When will aftonbladet.se become intelligent?
The drivers behind improved context
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2.
Integrity online – we are not actingcoherently
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“You can make money
without doing evil.”
http://www.google.com/corporate/tenthings.html
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• Gmail Stores, processes, and maintains all messages, Accountactivity, All Gchat conversations, Clicks
• Google Toolbar All websites visited, Unique appl. ID, Sends 404s to Google
• Google Calendar Name, language, all events (date, participants, comments)
• YouTube User data, Videos uploaded, videos watched, Comments
• Google Maps
• Google Docs Number of logins, Actions taken, Storage usage, Clicks, All collaborators, All text, All images, All changes
• Blogger
• Google Reader
• Google Wave
• Google Finance User’s stocks, Amount of shares, time bought, Bought at price
• Google Checkout Full legal name, Credit card number, expiration date, CVN
• Google Desktop
• Orkut Name, Gender, Age, Location, Occupation, Religion
• Picasa Photos, all clicks
• Google Health Doctors, Conditions, Prescriptions, Age, Sex, Race, Blood type, Weight, Allergies, Procedures
• Google Voice
• and of course… Google Search
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• Google-controlled web trackers are tracking
users on 92 of the net's top 100 sites and about
88 per cent of almost 400,000 other domains
(Analytics, AdSense, Doubleclick)
• 46 of the top 50 websites share data with their
affiliates
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/03/google_tracking_study/
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3.
”Facebook is underhyped”
http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
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www.compete.com 2009-11-08
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The world s most used website
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• Average user has 120 friends on the site
• More than 100 million users log on to Facebook at
least once each day
• 6.7 billion people on the planet, 23.8 percent
(about 1.6 billion) have Internet access
• 8 percent regularly use Facebook.
• 92 percent of Internet users have yet to
discover it
www.internetworldstats.com
www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
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4.
”Twitter is overhyped”
http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
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The Hype ratio
Site Swedish users Google-hits
(Swedish)
Aftonbladet 3,8 miljoner (unika/v) 3,28 miljoner
Facebook 2,4 miljoner 12,3 miljoner
Bilddagboken 1,2 miljoner (unika/v) 1,95 miljoner
Youtube 3,2 miljoner (unika/v) 4,6 miljoner
Twitter 37 500 9,9 miljoner
http://www.digitalkommunikation.se 2009-08
Hype-ratio
0,86
5,13
1,63
1,44
264
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” Let's face it — Twitter is a fad. It has all the
attributes of a fad, including the one that people like
me don't get its appeal. It has risen quickly and it
will fall quickly. It's this year's Second Life”
Tom Davenport, April 9, 2009
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/davenport/2009/04/is_twitter_for_serious_marketer.html
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www.compete.com 2009-11-08
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• 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only
60 to 65% of other online social networks' members had at least one
friend
• 36% of tweets mention a user in the form ‘@userhttp://www.danah.org/papers/TweetTweetRetweet.pdf
• 51% of people with Twitter accounts don't use it once a monthhttp://www.businessinsider.com/51-of-twitter-members-use-the-site-less-than-once-a-
month-clip-2009-5
• Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user
is one
• The top 10% of Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweetshttp://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/cs/2009/06/new_twitter_research_men_follo.html
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Twitter is a broadcasting channel
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5.
Increased metric focus decreaseonline brand building
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Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the
trouble is I don’t know which half
John Wanamaker, 1838 – 1922
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• Search ads will represent 42 percent of all online
advertising spending in 2009, while display ads will
account for just 21 percent
• Internet advertising in Sweden is expected to drop during
2009, whereas Search Engine Marketing is expected to
increase with 12 percent
• Companies seek direct conversion rather than branding when
the marketing spend gets squeezed
From display advertising to action-driven advertising
http://www.emarketer.com 2009-06-17
http://www.irm-media.se/ 2009-06-17
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• You optimize what you measure
• It is difficult to measure brand value
• Brand value is long-term, metrics are often short-
term
• Improved user experience can often drastically
improve brand attitudes
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6.
The risk aversive conformitydisease
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How many music and appstores can you spot?
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Opportunities and recommendations
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Information overflow generates the need for
context, structure and filtering
Integrity online – we are not acting coherently
Respect, help and listen to your
audience
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Facebook is underhyped
Twitter is overhyped
Be flexible
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“It is not the strongest of the species that will survive, or the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change”
Charles Darwin
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The risk aversive conformity disease
Increased metric focus decrease online brand building
Dare to be different
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Finally :
Focus on business value
and all else will follow
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Reality check
• 38% of the Swedish population do not use Internet on a
daily basis
• 20% of the Swedish population never use the Internet
• 82% of the mobile phone users do not use mobile Internet
• 63% of the Internet users never read blogs
”Svenskarna och Internet 2009”, http://www.wii.se