what uncertainty - lean construction institute
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Lean Construction as
Countermeasure
Will Lichtig Gregory A. Howell, P. E.
Boldt Construction Lean Construction Institute
5
Traditional project management: A coherent common sense
Organization Operating Commercial System
Command &
Control Activity Centered
(CPM) Transactional
5
Current Operating System: How are projects
managed today
Determine client requirements including quality, time and budget
limits. Design to meet them.
Break project into activities, estimating duration and resource requirements for each activity and placing them in a logical order with CPM
Assign or contract each activity, give start notice and monitor safety, quality, time and cost standards. Act on negative
variance from standards
Coordinate with master schedule and weekly meetings
Reduce cost by productivity improvement
Reduce duration by speeding each piece or changing logic
Improve quality and safety with inspection and enforcement
Research Finding from early 1990’s
54 %
% of Tasks Completed on
Foreman Weekly Work Plan
© 2010 Lean Construction Institute 7
Last Planner® – Predictable workflow & rapid learning
Master Schedule
Lookahead Plan & Constraint Analysis
Pull Planning
Percent Plan Complete Weekly Work Planning
©Lean Construction Institute, 2011..
9
The Last Planner® System of Production Control 5 - Connected Conversations
Master Scheduling
Milestones
Set milestones & strategy Identify long lead items
SHOULD
Phase “Pull” Planning Specify handoffs Identify operational conflicts
CAN
WILL
Make Work Ready Planning
Make ready & Launch Replanning when needed
Weekly Work Planning Promise
DID Learning
Measure PPC & act on reasons for failure to keep
promises
10 © 2009 Lean Construction Institute
Five Big Ideas
Collaborate; Really Collaborate
Projects as Networks of
Commitment
Increase
Relatedness
Optimize The Whole
Tightly Couple
Learning w/ Action
Replacing the old coherent common sense with the new
Organization Operating Commercial System
Command &
Control Activity Centered
(CPM) Transactional
Collaborative Flow Centered Relational (Lean)
Ends Means Uncertainty Certain Objectives Certain Objectives
Uncertain Means 1
10
5 10 Certain Mleans
• •
1
Uncertain Objectives 1 5 10 Uncertain Objectives Uncertain Means Certain Means
Uncertainty about
How it to Build
Assessment of Uncertainty on Most Recent Project
Mark a “T” for
where you thought the project was at the start of
construction and
an “R” for where
you later realized it was.
Use an X if your assessment did
Aboutnot you: change. Owner ___ Designer ___ Contractor
___
Or–
About management of the project: Traditional [__] Basic Lean Construction (LPS) [___] Advanced Lean Construction LPS & IPD
Really advanced Lean Construction: LPS, IPD, TVD, Set Based Design [___] Was BIM used? Y N
Uncert
ain
ty a
bout O
bje
ctiv
es
(What) to B
uild
Uncertainty about Means (How) to Build
4.3 Average
Certain Means
5 0 Certain Objectives
0
x
xx
xxxx x x x
xxx xx xx
x
x
xxx
x xx
xxx x xx
xx x x x x
xxxx xx xxxxx xxx
xxx
x x
x
x x x x
x
x x
x
x
x
x
x x
Certain Objectives Uncertain Means 1
0
5
Wh
at
Un
certain
ty
10
11% 25% 50% 14%
22%
63%
11%
4%
Average 3.5
Uncertain Objectives Uncertain Means How Uncertainty
Uncertain Objectives Certain Means
Assessment of Uncertainty at the Start of
Construction
Certain Objectives Certain Objectives Uncertain Means Certain Means
Uncertain Objectives Uncertain Means
How Uncertainty
Tails of arrows show assessment at beginning of the project and arrow heads mark later assessment. Unchanged assessments marked with “.” Uncertain Objectives
-
Certain Means
•
•
•
•
• •
•
•
•
•
What
Uncert
ain
ty
Assessment of Uncertainty on
MostLean Recent C o n s t r u c t i o n I n s t i t u t e Pro ject 1 7
Table 1,1,4gc Assessment Matrix
Probability
Certain M II
H
H
H
Likely M H
Pos.sible
14 H
Unlikely
L M H
Rare L L L M NI
Low Minor 'Moderate Major Catastrophic
Severity
Key: L=Legr, M=Moderate; H=High; E=Extremely High
An activity-
centered operating system designed to optimize the project
by optimizing each activity and their relationship.
Developed Circa 1960