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What is the Connected Vehicle Connected To?

Technologies, Policies and Possibilities Near Term → Long Term

Michael J. Bailey, P.Eng. Director and Past Chairman of the Board ITS Canada

© ITS Canada, 2015

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“… this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before the decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.” John F Kennedy, May 1961, (Address to to US Congress)

“We choose to go to the moon ... and … other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone. …" John F Kennedy, June 1962, (address at Rice University, Houston, TX)

Image Source: BBC

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These advances led to: 1. Integrated circuits 2. Low power consumption motors and rechargeable batteries 3. Inexpensive photo-electric smoke detectors 4. Enriched infant formula 5. Re-cycled rubber based pavement. 6. Disposable infrared ear thermometer 7. Nickel-Titanium supported orthodontics 8. Durable non-corrosive industrial coatings 9. Bi-directional telemetry for medically implanted devices 10. Scratch resistant light weight lenses 11. And much more

Source: Mental Floss LLC, Dan Majors, Pittsburgh Post Gazette, inter alia

Image Source: BBC

The last step may not be as important as all the steps it took to get there. The moon landing is analogous to evolution of fully autonomous vehicles. The Lunar program could not succeed without significant advances in: • Material Sciences

• High Strength • Light Weight • Heat Resistant • Non corrosive

• Sensor Technologies • Digital Communication • Component Miniaturization

What is the Connected Vehicle Connected To?

Technologies, Policies and Possibilities

50 Years Into the Future – A 1923 View of 1973

4 Source: Science and Invention (Cover), May 1923

50 Years Into the Future – A 1963 View of 2013

5 © Hanna Barbara

• Introduction and History • Connected and Autonomous • Mobility and Urbanization • Safety • Technology • Regulation • Automotive and Business Implications • Legal • Reading • Conclusion

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Vehicle assumes Lateral AND Longitudinal Control

Driver delegates fully – must monitor system constantly and be ready to take control “Hands On“

Partially Automated

Source: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt) | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Automated Driving: Levels of Automation

Driver Only

Manual

Vehicle assumes Lateral OR Longitudinal Control

Driver delegates partially – must monitor system constantly and be ready to take full control

Assisted

Vehicle assumes Lateral AND Longitudinal Control

“Hands Off“ Driver must take control within seconds after warning

Highly Automated

Vehicle completely takes over. .

Fully Automated

Leve

l of a

utom

atio

n

Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

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No driver monitoring mandatory

Autonomous Vehicles (Level 4)

The Good News • It’s possible to get into a car, tell it to take you

to the corner store – and it will take you there successfully and safely, while you read the local newspaper.

– You don’t have to steer – You don’t have to apply the gas or brake – You don’t have to signal for turns

• Many of you have seen the videos on the

internet.

• They are real and they represent significant breakthroughs in application of technology to the task of driving.

The Bad News • The bad news is that, for now, there is only

one corner store and it’s in Mountain View, California.

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Is it Real?

9 Mercedez Benz F 015 Concept

• Fully autonomous vehicles could be ready by 2025, predicts Daimler chairman Dieter Zetsche, chairman of Daimler, predicts that fully autonomous vehicles which can drive without human intervention and might not even have a steering wheel could be available on the market by 2025. (Source: The Detroit News, 2014-01-13)

• Truly autonomous cars to populate roads by 2028-2032 estimates insurance think tank

executive At a meeting of the Society of Automotive Engineers, Robert Hartwig, President of the Insurance Information Institute estimated that it will take between 15 and 20 years until truly autonomous vehicles populate US roads. (Source: The Detroit News, 2013-02-14)

• Intel CTO predicts that autonomous car will arrive by 2022

Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel predicts that driverless cars will be available within 10 years. Intel is hoping to equip autonomous smart cars with its Atom and Core processors. (Source: Computerworld, 2012-10-22)

• IEEE predicts up to 75% of vehicles will be autonomous in 2040

Expert members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) have determined that driverless vehicles will be the most viable form of intelligent transportation. They estimate that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous by 2040. (Source: IEEE, 2012-09-05)

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140113/AUTO04/301130112/Daimler-chief-Fully-autonomous-vehicles-could-ready-by-2025

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140113/AUTO04/301130112/Daimler-chief-Fully-autonomous-vehicles-could-ready-by-2025

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130214/AUTO03/302140349

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9232722/Autonomous_cars_will_arrive_within_10_years_Intel_CTO_says

http://www.ieee.org/about/news/2012/5september_2_2012.html

Connected Road User Universe

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Roadway

Vehicle Driver

Communication

Information

Integration

Communication Convergence

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Control Centre ... Roadside Roadside ... Vehicle (V2I)

Vehicle ... Vehicle (V2V) Vehicle ... Control Centre

Multiple Two-way Communication Channels Three Dimensions of Connectivity • Local (Within the vehicle) • Near Field (~300m surrounding the

Vehicle ) • Wide Area (Remote Interfaces with the

Vehicle)

Connected Vehicle Applications – On the way to Autonomous Adaptive drivetrain Management Road condition warning Left turn assistant

Adaptive headlight aiming SOS services Map downloads and updates

Curve speed warning Stop sign violation warning Pre-crash sensing

Emergency electronic brake Lights Traffic signal violation warning Safety recall Notice

Emergency vehicle signal preemption Work zone warning Stop sign Movement assistance

Enhanced route guidance and Navigation Approaching emergency vehicle warning Vehicle-based road condition warning

Free-Flow tolling Blind Merge warning Vehicle-to-vehicle road feature Notification

Highway/rail collision warning Blind spot warning Visibility enhancer

Intelligent on-ramp Metering Cooperative ACC Wrong-way driver warning

In-Vehicle Amber Alert Cooperative FCW Cooperative collision warning

In-vehicle signage Cooperative glare reduction Cooperative vehicle-highway automation system

Low bridge warning Highway Merge assistant GPS correction

Low parking structure warning Intelligent traffic flow control Instant Messaging

Point of interest Notification Just-in-time repair Notification Intersection collision warning

Post-crash warning Lane change warning Pedestrian crossing at designated intersections

Near Term Medium Term Long Term

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Source: CAMP. (2006, April). Vehicle Safety Communications Project - Final Report. DOT HS 810 591. Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration


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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

16 17 18 19

Population Between 16 and 19 Holding a Driver’s License

1978 2008

Millennials See Things Through a Different Lens

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Source: USDOT

• Young people are no longer in a hurry to drive

• Context of social interaction has fundamentally changed

Ownership Quiz?

Transport as a Service (TaaS) • Survey of 6,000 members of ten Car Sharing

Services in the US and Canada – 65% of One Car households shed the

vehicle. – 71% of Two Car households shed at least

one car – 16% of Two Car households shed both cars

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US

VMT

(Bill

ions

)

Source: FHWA 2013

This is a fundamental and unprecedented break in a long term trend

Gro

und

Tran

spor

t Exp

ense

s C

laim

ed

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15

Ubër Taxi

• Certify, the second largest corporate expense management company, reports that shared services like Ubër have almost overtaken traditional taxis in expense claims for ground transportation.

Source: Certify, April, 2015


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Automotive Industry - 50 Years of Continuous Improvement

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1960 2000 1990 1980 1970 2010

Seat Belts

Fuel Efficiency, Emission Control

Rear Cameras

ACC, Collision Warning

Past Results Are Indicative of Future Performance

Air Bags

ABS and ESC

Long Term Decline in Fatalities vs VMT

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Source: USDOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Following 1973 Oil Price Shock, US Government imposed a national Maximum 55 mph speed limit

Connected Vehicles are expected to yield 30% reduction in collisions and fatalities and a modest VMT increase. Net result should be a continuing decline as % of CVs in the fleet increase

The trend has continued since Maximum 55 mph speed limit was lifted

Potential Collision Reduction

Four Key CV Applications All Injury Fatal Forward Collision Warning 1,165,000 66,000 879 Lane Departure Warning 179,000 37,000 7,529 Side View Assist 395,000 20,000 393 Adaptive Headlights 142,000 29,000 2,484

Total Collisions 5,615,000 1,634,000 30,800

Collisions Potentially Influenced 33% 9% 37%

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Source: New Estimates of Benefits of Crash Avoidance Features On Passenger Vehicles, Status Report, Vol 45, No 5, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,, Washington, DC, 2010 http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/45/5/2

• Other estimates are much higher • Projections need calibration across applications and between CV and AV

Key ADAS and Connected Vehicle Applications (V2V and V2I)

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Rear End Collision Scenarios

Forward Collision Warning

Emergency Electronic Brake Light Warning

Lane Change Scenarios

Blind Spot Warning

Do Not Pass Warning

Intersection Scenario

Intersection Warning


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Self Driving Will Require Exponentially Faster Processing

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Air Bags ESC ABS S

yste

m F

unct

iona

lity

Safe Driving

Self Driving

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Compute Speed Requirement (DMIPS – indicative only)

Electro-Mechanical

Safety Web Content

Streaming

Infotainment

Lane Departure Blind Spot

Parking Assist

Inform

Adaptive Cruise Control

Emergency Braking

Lane Keeping

Assist Self Driving

Assume

Source: Technology and Computing Requirements for Self-Driving Cars, Intel, 2014

Generic Connected Vehicle Architecture

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GPS Receiver

Safety & Security App Memory

DSRC Radio Driver Vehicle Interface

Vehicle System & Sensor Bus

GPS, DSRC Antenna

LIDAR, Radar, Camera Sensor Package

Map

In Vehicle Sensor Package

24 Source: Staszewski R, Estl, H, Making Cars Safer Through Technology Innovation, Texas Instruments, 2013

• Sensor Package – LIDAR – Optical Cameras – Radar – Infrared camera – GPS – Wheel Encoder

• Composite Yield – 360°Image – Real time relative movement – Millisecond reaction

Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) DSRC enables continuous standardized two-way messaging between nearby vehicles and roadside infrastructure • Low latency • Simple acquisition • Robust and Dependable • Secure V2V Message includes • Location • Speed • Acceleration • Bearing • Yaw

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Map Building Evolution – Current Generation

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Map Building Evolution – ADAS and CV Generation

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• Derived from LiDAR • 3D spline based surface model • Lane-level and intersection

mapping • Slope, Elevation, Curvature • Ability to model non-drivable

surfaces • Parking • And on and on …

The map to support ADAS applications (CV/AV) is much more demanding than required by current generation turn-by-turn navigation.

Known Development Challenges • Reversing • Work Zones • Pedestrian Prediction • Rare Events • Extreme Weather

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Regulations will have to keep up

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Image Source: http://www.caradvice.com.au/257871/audi-matrix-ed-headlights/

In Europe, Audi has launched a sensor activated dynamic matrix LED headlight system that puts light where it is needed.

Not allowed in North America

Regulations will have to keep up

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Image Source: http://wot.motortrend.com/audi-debuts-laser-taillights-in-car-lte-connectivity-3-d-displays-at-2013-ces-311529.html/audi-laser-taillight-2/


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The Automotive Development Cycle is Long

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0 5 4 3 2 1

Supplier Prototype

6

Concept Integration &

Validation

Engineering Development

Engineering Validation

Start Mass Production

Market Launch

Automotive Development Cycle (Years)

• Cycle of technology ownership and obsolescence is on a different wave length from the automotive cycle

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Years In Service

Obsolescence Cycle

Mobile Phone Car

Market Adoption

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0 15 20 30 35 40 25 5 10

100

50

75

25 Mar

ket P

enet

ratio

n (%

)

Years From 1st Generation Launch

Early Adopters

“Luddites” Slope and inflection points respond to a number of factors:

• Cool • Cost • Convenience Model Year Adoption (%) 2013 2014

Adaptive Cruise Control 1.1 1.4 Lane Departure Prevention 3.4 8.4 Blind Spot Alert 6.3 10.1

Source:: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/study-selfdriving-cars-would-cut-90-of-crashes2nd-update-20150305-00820#ixzz3TY4iUXx0

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/study-selfdriving-cars-would-cut-90-of-crashes2nd-update-20150305-00820#ixzz3TY4iUXx0





















Trust is an Issue – So is Price

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Capability Price (USD) Would definitely or probably purchase

Premium Car Buyer Other Car Buyer Fully Autonomous Driving 3,000 31% 18% Semi-autonomous Driving Applications Speed Limit Assist - 800 29% 18% Emergency Stop Assist 800 31% 23% Traffic Congestion Assist 800 31% 20% Source: JD Power and Associates, 2012 US Automotive Emerging Technologies Study

• In all cases, men were more likely to purchase than women by approximately 10% • In all cases, younger purchasers were more likely to purchase than older purchasers

Silicon Valley in competition with Detroit to be auto nexus • “Cars are still an area that haven’t fundamentally changed in 100

years,” says Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray Cos • Apple can afford to invest in capital intensive disruptive projects.

• Apple and Google “are the new suppliers, these are the new auto

companies.” said Jeff Schuster, an SVP at LMC Automotive.

• Detroit automotive engineers are marveling over Tesla president Elon Musk recently telling Bloomberg Businessweek that, “Apple was offering US$250,000 signing bonuses in an effort to poach Tesla workers”.

• The Financial Times also reported that Apple is hiring auto experts to work at a new research lab.”

National Post, February 17, 2015

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Impact of Reduced CV Headway Requirement

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Speed

Throughput (Volume / Capacity)

Reduced headway requirement Increases roadway utilization where LOS is currently constrained and defers demand for new infrastructure

Disruptions in the Automotive, Transport and Energy Sectors • Smoother sensor and computer managed acceleration and deceleration is expected improve fuel

consumption by 4 to 10 percent.

• Jobs could be lost once drivers become unnecessary. – Some taxi, truck, and bus drivers may lose their livelihoods and professions. – Reduced collision rates and MVA related fatalities and injuries, will disrupt the entire “crash

economy” of insurance companies, body shops, hospitals, chiropractors, and others.

• Potentially lighter and less “crash resistant” vehicles present further opportunities for reduced fuel consumption with predictable impact on vehicle maintenance and the steel industry

• Better utilization of roadway infrastructure will reduce demand for new roads and parking facilities James M. Anderson, Nidhi Kalra, Karlyn D. Stanley, Paul Sorensen, Constantine Samaras, Oluwatobi A. Oluwatola; Autonomous Vehicle – Technology A Guide for Policymakers; Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA; 2014

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Privacy Principles for Vehicle Technologies and Services • The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers and the Association of Global Automakers has released a

set of guiding principles, aimed at protecting personal information collected through in-car technologies, including:

– Information that vehicles collect, that is linked to a vehicle, owner or user and – Information that individuals provide, during the subscription or registration process, that on its

own or in combination with other information can identify a person

• The principles address – Transparency – Choice – Respect for Context – Data Minimization, De-Identification & Retention – Data Security – Integrity & Access – Accountability

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Product Liability • Automobile manufacturers are typically very conservative and cautious of exposure to product liability

claims.

• Despite saving many thousands of deaths and injuries, Seat belts, air bags and other safety features have attracted product liability claims.

• ADAS and Autonomous driving features will be no different, but dramatic reduction in collision numbers coupled with further reduction in deaths and injuries will more than offset any increased exposure

• Insurers have acknowledged that lane-keeping and ACC functions reduce risk and have begun to reduce premiums accordingly

• Cameras and Event Data Recorders will remove uncertainty and reduce the cost of litigation and increase likelihood of settlement.

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Autonomous Cars – A Conundrum of Ethical Considerations • As a driver I have real time choices to evade or mitigate damage from an unavoidable collision that

will occur in the next second. • In the same situation, for an autonomous car, those choices have already been made and encoded

into a probabilistic algorithm, months or years ago, by an anonymous programmer in a far away lab – but the algorithm has no sense of moral or even ethical consideration.

• The autonomous vehicle calculates probable outcomes and simply executes to achieve the best possible outcome. But what is the “best possible outcome”?

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I am driving my vehicle on a road and see a vehicle hauling a travel trailer driving toward me, approaching rapidly. An incident is practically unavoidable and I have to choose among: i. Driving off the road (catastrophic results for me and my vehicle); ii. Collide head-on with the approaching vehicle (with moderate damage and injury for me and the

other vehicle and its occupants); or iii. An improbable maneuver that will possibly save me and my vehicle and the other vehicle, but more

likely will result in very serious injury/damage to the other vehicle and occupants, while my vehicle is subject to limited damage and less severe injury..

Autonomous Cars – A Conundrum of Ethical Considerations • As a driver I have real time choices to evade or mitigate damage from an unavoidable collision that

will occur in the next second. • In the same situation, for an autonomous car, those choices have already been made and encoded

into a probabilistic algorithm, months or years ago, by an anonymous programmer in a far away lab – but the algorithm has no sense of moral or even ethical consideration.

• The autonomous vehicle calculates probable outcomes and simply executes to achieve the best possible outcome. But what is the “best possible outcome”?

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I am driving my vehicle on a road and see a vehicle hauling a travel trailer driving toward me approaching rapidly. An incident is practically unavoidable and I have to choose among: i. Driving off the road (catastrophic results for me and my vehicle); ii. Collide head-on with the approaching vehicle (with moderate damage and injury for me and the

other vehicle and its occupants); or iii. An improbable maneuver that will possibly save me and my vehicle and the other vehicle, but more

likely will result in serious injury/damage to the other vehicle and occupants, while my vehicle escapes.

Probability

Low

Low

High

Sev

erity

X X

i

High

iii

iii

X Opposing Vehicle Scenario X

My Vehicle Scenario X

Both Vehicles Scenario X

ii

i iii


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Interesting Reading 1. Author Unknown, Leonardo da Vinci’s Self Propelled car, http://www.powershow.com/view1/cafa2-

ZDc1Z/Leonardo_da_Vinci_powerpoint_ppt_presentation, inter alia 2. Garza, A.P., “Look Ma, No Hands”: Wrinkles and Wrecks in the Age of Autonomous Vehicles, New England Law

Review, Volume 46, Issue 3, Page 581 - 616, Boston, MA, 2012 http://www.nesl.edu/userfiles/file/LawReview/Vol46/3/Garza%20FINAL.pdf

3. Goodall, N.J., Ethical Decision Making During Automated Vehicle Crashes, Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No 2424, Vol 2, Washington, DC, 2014 http://www.academia.edu/4987835/Ethical_Decision_Making_During_Automated_Vehicle_Crashes

4. Scribner, M., Self Driving Regulation, On Point, No 192, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, 2014 https://cei.org/onpoint/self-driving-regulation

5. Martin, E; Shaheen, S; Lidicker, J; Carsharing’s Impact on Household Vehicle Holdings: Results From a North American Shared-Use Survey; Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board; Issue 2143; pp 150-158; / 2010 Transit, Vol 1, Washington, DC, 2010

6. Staszewski, R, Hannes, E, Making Cars Safer Through Technology Innovation, Texas Instruments Incorporated, 2013 http://www.ti.com/lit/wp/sszy009/sszy009.pdf

7. Wallace, R; Silberg, G; Self Driving Cars – The Next Revolution, KPMG and Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor, MI; 2012 https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/self-driving-cars-next-revolution.pdf

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http://www.powershow.com/view1/cafa2-ZDc1Z/Leonardo_da_Vinci_powerpoint_ppt_presentation

http://www.powershow.com/view1/cafa2-ZDc1Z/Leonardo_da_Vinci_powerpoint_ppt_presentation

http://www.nesl.edu/userfiles/file/LawReview/Vol46/3/Garza FINAL.pdf

http://www.academia.edu/4987835/Ethical_Decision_Making_During_Automated_Vehicle_Crashes

https://cei.org/onpoint/self-driving-regulation

http://www.ti.com/lit/wp/sszy009/sszy009.pdf

https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/self-driving-cars-next-revolution.pdf

https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/self-driving-cars-next-revolution.pdf


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24th World Congress on Intelligent Transportation

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A Few Open Questions That Need a Lot of Discussion • In 2015, a B-787 can easily fly from Gate F72 at Pearson Toronto to a gate at Delhi International

Airport with zero pilot input. Yet we still require two highly trained and paid pilots in the cockpit … actually a flight that long might require two complete crews. The issue is clearly redundancy, so how does this reality align with autonomous driving?

• Accepting that connected vehicle technology will substantially improve roadway safety and reduce collisions, and mitigate fatalities and injuries when a collision does occur:

– How will consumers react to the prospect of new vehicles being lighter with fewer injury mitigation features that CV applications make redundant?

– How will policy makers react …?

• At what rate can adoption of CV applications be mandated by regulation?

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