Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts

Table of Contents

Published in May 2017, this 186-page PDF and excel report combines two of last year’s reports: Digital TV Western Europe Forecasts and the Western Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts in one convenient place. The report comes in five parts:

• Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects;

• Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2022 by platform, by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers and by pay TV revenues;

• Major pay TV operators;

• Country profiles and analysis for 18 territories;

• Detailed forecasts for 18 countries, including 77 operators.

For more information, please click here or contact lydia@digitaltvresearch.com

Forecasts for the following 18 countries and 77 operators:

Country No of ops Operators

Austria 4 Telekom Austria; UPC; Sky; Liwest

Belgium 5 Belgacom; Numericable; Telenet; VOO; Telesat/TV Vlaanderen

Denmark 6 Canal Digital; Viasat; You See; Stofa; Boxer; TDC

Finland 5 Elisa; Teliasonera; DNA; Canal Digital; Viasat

France 7 Orange; SFR; CanalSat; Numericable; Free; Bouygues; TNT

Germany 6 Kabel Deutschland; Vodafone; DT/T-Home; Sky; Unitymedia; Telecolumbus

Iceland 2 Vodafone, Siminn

Ireland 3 UPC; Sky; eir

Italy 3 Mediaset; Sky; Telecom Italia

Luxembourg 2 Tele des P&T; Eltrona

Malta 2 Melita; Go

Netherlands 5 UPC/Ziggo; Canal Digitaal; Tele 2; KPN/Digitenne

Norway 5 Canal Digital; Viasat; Riks TV; Telenor; Get

Portugal 4 Meo/PT; NOS/Zon; Nowo/Cabovisao; Vodafone

Spain 5 Ono/Vodafone; Canal Plus/Telefonica/Movistar; Euskatel; Orange; Telecable

Sweden 6 Canal Digital; Viasat; Com Hem; Telia; Boxer; Telenor

Switzerland 3 Swisscom; UPC/Cablecom; Sunrise

UK 4 Sky; Virgin; BT; TalkTalk

SAMPLE: Denmark pay TV briefing

• Pay TV penetration already runs at 92% - so it is unlikely to grow. Pay TV penetration shot up in 2011 as public broadcaster TV2 moved from the FTA DTT to the pay DTT option. However, pay DTT is forecast to fall. Competition will intensify, leading to lower TV ARPU figures and falling pay TV revenues from 2015 onwards.

• Full digital TV conversion will be achieved in 2017. Cable TV penetration is at 57% of homes, down from 67% in 2010. IPTV will continue to grow. Pay satellite TV will continue to experience falling subs numbers as homes convert to cheaper options and bundles on other platforms, with pay DTT also falling.

• Denmark has 1.43 million cable households, although saturation point has been reached. Leading operators TDC’s YouSee and Stofa together control about 90% of cable subs.

• Stofa’s cable subscription growth has been marginal in recent years. The company has about 320,000 subs, of which half are counted via third-party local operators (mostly 300 housing associations). We do not expect any TV subscriber growth. Digital subs pay DKK229-549/month ($32.67-78.32) for 27-60 channels. About 200,000 subs also take broadband services. In October 2012, co-operative Syd Energi bought Stofa from Sweden’s Ratos DKK1,900 million. In early 2015, Stofa took a 25% stake in broadband provider Waoo!

TDC TV and YouSee operational highlights 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TDC TV subs (000) 128 152 190 218 258 277

YouSee TV subs (000) 1,179 1,192 1,166 1,152 1,099

Total TV subs (000) 1,392 1,393 1,420 1,377 1,379

TDC TV ARPU (DKK) 335 333 308 323 315 305

YouSee TV ARPU (DKK) 214 226 234 234 242

TV ARPU (DKK) 254 256

Double-play subs (000) 304 414 434 457

Triple-play subs (000) - 83 80 78 440 475

Source: TDC

• TDC had 1.38 million basic cable subs at end-2016; flat year-on-year. TDC’s cable (YouSee) and IPTV interests accounted for 56% of Denmark’s pay TV subscribers at end-2016. TDC TV controls about two-thirds of the IPTV market; with 297,000 subscribers at end-2016.

• The company introduced a 300Mbps broadband service in January 2015. Mobile services were added in January 2013. The HBO SVOD platform is also available.

• The company launched quad-play services in 2011 across its HFC network that covers 1.5 million premises. By 2018, TDC wants to be able to offer 50% of households 1,000Mbps, 70% 100Mbps and 100% 10Mbps. TDC had 2.59 million mobile subs and 1.31 million broadband ones by end-2016. About 332,000 subs took TV, broadband and mobile.

Fixed IPTV subs by operator 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun 15

TDC 121,791 155,931 194,153 228,317 268,727 282,288

EnergiMidt 15,907 21,960 29,462 28,390 30,174 30,925

Fibia 28,784 27,242

SE 0 14,906 19,647 18,633

SEAS NVE 18,885

Dansk Bredband 20,997 14,171

Waoo 9,884 13,469

TRE-FOR 7,829

Others 41,362 45,043 77,931 64,980 75,174 80,390

Total 217,770 265,480 321,193 359,771 402,859 420,845

Source: ENS

• ENS estimated 420,845 IPTV subscribers at June 2015. IPTV had 18.1% TV household penetration at end-2016, with 20.8% expected by 2022. Erhversstyrelsen estimated 2,392,000 fixed broadband subs by June 2015.

Telia subscriber growth (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sweden broadband 1,129 1,149 1,175 1,208 1,275 1,306 1,299

Sweden TV 450 515 580 641 697 730 765

Sweden TV ARPU SEK

156 159 161 167 185

Finland broadband 476 491 501 532 561 527 497

Finland TV 218 355 403 436 481 486 489

Finland TV ARPU € 8.70 8.90 8.80 9.00 9.60

Norway broadband 195 188 184 0 0 0 0

Norway TV 6 7 12 0 0 0 0

Denmark bband 67 80 87 99 114 135 128

Denmark TV 5 10 14 18 20 28 28

Denmark TV ARPU DKK

322 345 392 376 348

Source: Telia

• Telia had 28,000 IPTV subscribers in Denmark by end-2016, flat year-on-year. Telia began offering a la carte channel selection in late 2013.

• Viasat and Canal Digital compete for Scandinavian pay satellite TV subs, together recorded 5.9% penetration in Denmark at end-2016 (down from 9.4% in 2010). However, pay satellite TV subscriber numbers are falling as households opt for the less expensive alternatives on offer.

Canal Digital subscribers by country (000) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Norway 499 489 481 468 456 438

Sweden 310 307 308 310 310 297

Finland 49 50 52 53 55 53

Denmark 108 98 88 81 77 74

Total 965 945 929 912 897 862

ARPU (NOK)

354 373 377 389 382

Source: Canal Digital. Note: 2016 country estimates by Digital TV Research

• Telenor-owned Canal Digital had 862,000 premium satellite TV subscribers across the region by end-2016, down by 103,000 since end-2011. ARPU fell in 2016. Danish subscriber numbers are falling. Canal Digital has lost subscribers across the region since 2008 due to greater competition and the loss of English Premier League soccer rights.

Viasat Nordic pay TV operations (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Denmark 106 104 98 92 86 84 75

Finland 46 45 42 40 36 34 31

Norway 159 153 131 118 111 108 97

Sweden 352 336 321 309 293 282 253

Premium satellite TV subs

663 638 592 559 526 508 456

of which ViasatPlus 158 188 192

of which multiroom 235 250 250 235

of which HD 210 297 341 358

Basic satellite TV subs

43 38 46 40 33 18

Wholesale cable & IPTV subs

394 421 427 418 456 506 544

Annualized ARPU (SEK)

4,555 4,791 4,988 5,075 5,254 5,161 5,508

Source: Modern Times Group. Country-by-country estimates by Digital TV Research

• Competition comes from Viasat, which is owned by Sweden’s Modern Times Group. Viasat Nordic lost 52,000 premium pay satellite TV subscribers across Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland in 2016 – or 10% of its subs base. The platform has lost 107,000 subs since 2010. On the plus side, Viasat is gaining wholesale subscribers and ARPU.

• The company does not break down subscriber figures by country, but we estimate that about 75,000 subs were in Denmark at end-2016 – nearly the same as Canal Digital. This total will fall to 66,000 by 2022.

• In October 2013, MTG renewed a deal with UEFA to screen Champions League soccer in Sweden, Denmark and Norway from the 2015/16 season to the 2017/2018 season. In October 2015, Viasat also signed up the rights to English Premier League soccer for a further three seasons from 2016/17 in Sweden, Finland and Denmark.

• In November 2009, Boxer expanded its pay DTT offer when three MPEG-4 multiplexes were added. Boxer now provides up to 29 pay channels (DKK70-499/month, $9.99-71.18) and the FTA ones. Boxer added HD channels in April 2012 by converting one of its multiplexes to DVB-T2. A la carte channel offers started in early 2014.

• Its parent company reported 280,000 Danish subscribers by late 2016, down from 335,000 in 2013. We believe that this total will continue to fall; reaching 241,000 by 2021. In December 2016, SE, owner of cable operator Stofa, acquired Boxer from Sweden’s Teracom.

• Analog switch-off was completed in November 2009. About 1.6 million homes have a DTT settop box, although most use them for secondary sets. About a fifth of homes are considered primary DTT. The public service broadcasters operate two multiplexes, which trade as Digi-TV and offer eight FTA national channels.

Denmark pay TV forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Households (000)

TV households (000)

Digital cable subs (000)

Analog cable subs (000)

Pay IPTV subscribers (000)

Pay digital Satellite TV subs (000)

Digital free Satellite TV HH (000)

Analog Satellite TV HH (000)

Analog terrestrial households (000)

Primary FTA DTT households (000)

Primary Pay DTT households (000)

Digital homes (000)

Analog homes (000)

Pay TV subscribers (000)

Total DTT homes (000)

Digital cable subs/TV HH

Analog cable subs/TV HH

Pay IPTV subs/TV HH

Pay Satellite TV/TV HH

Digital free Satellite TV/TV HH

Analog Satellite TV/TV HH

Analog terrestrial/TVHH

Primary FTA DTT/TV HH

Primary pay DTT/TV HH

TVHH/Total HH

Digital/TV HH

Analog/TV HH

Pay TV Subs/TV HH

Total DTT homes/TVHH

Stand-alone digital cable subs (000)

Double-play digital cable subs (000)

Triple-play digital cable subs (000)

Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000)

Double-play pay IPTV subs (000)

Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)

Denmark pay TV forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Revenues (US$ million)

Stand-alone digital cable revs

Double-play dig cable TV revs

Triple-play digital cable TV revs

Digital cable TV subs revenues

Digital cable TV on-demand revs

Digital cable TV revenues

Analog cable TV subs revs

Cable TV revenues

Stand-alone IPTV revenues

Double-play IPTV revenues

Triple-play IPTV revenues

IPTV subscription revenues

IPTV on-demand revenues

IPTV revenues

Satellite TV subscription revs

Satellite TV on-demand revs

Satellite TV revenues

DTT subscription revs

DTT on-demand revenues

DTT revenues

Subscription revenues

On-demand revenues

Total revenues

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$)

Stand-alone digital cable subs

Double-play dig cable TV subs

Triple-play digital cable TV subs

Ave digital cable (subs & VOD)

Analog cable TV subs

Stand-alone IPTV subs

Double-play IPTV subs

Triple-play IPTV subs

Average IPTV (subs and VOD)

Pay Satellite TV (subs)

Pay Satellite TV (subs and PPV)

Pay DTT (subs)

Pay DTT (subs and PPV)

Average monthly ARPU

Denmark pay TV forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Pay TV subscribers by operator (000)

Stofa (digital cable)

Stofa (analog cable)

Stofa (total)

You See (digital cable)

You See (analog cable)

You See (total)

TDC (IPTV)

Canal Digital (satellite)

Viasat (satellite)

Boxer (DTT)

Others

Share of pay TV subscribers by operator %

Stofa (digital cable)

Stofa (analog cable)

Stofa (total)

You See (digital cable)

You See (analog cable)

You See (total)

TDC (IPTV)

Canal Digital (satellite)

Viasat (satellite)

Boxer (DTT)

Others

Subscription & VOD revenues (US$ million)

Stofa (digital cable)

Stofa (analog cable)

Stofa (total)

You See (digital cable)

You See (analog cable)

You See (total)

TDC (IPTV)

Canal Digital (satellite)

Viasat (satellite)

Boxer (DTT)

Others

Denmark pay TV forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Share of pay TV revenues by operator (%)

Stofa (digital cable)

Stofa (analog cable)

Stofa (total)

You See (digital cable)

You See (analog cable)

You See (total)

TDC (IPTV)

Canal Digital (satellite)

Viasat (satellite)

Boxer (DTT)

Others

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$)

Stofa (digital cable)

Stofa (analog cable)

You See (digital cable)

You See (analog cable)

TDC (IPTV)

Canal Digital (satellite)

Viasat (satellite)

Boxer (DTT)

Source: digital TV research

Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2017 Title Publication Price

1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560

2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts February £1200/€1440/$1560

3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560

4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560

5 North America Pay TV Forecasts April £750/€900/$975

6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1440/$1560

7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1200/€1440/$1560

8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340

9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1800/€2160/$2340

10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1800/€2160/$2340

11 Netflix Forecasts June £600/€720/$780

12 Global Pay TV Subscriber Databook July £900/€1080/$1170

13 Global Pay TV Revenue Databook July £900/€1080/$1170

14 Global Pay TV Operator Databook July £900/€1080/$1170

15 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts August

£1200/€1440/$1560

16 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts August

£1200/€1440/$1560

17 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1200/€1440/$1560

18 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1200/€1440/$1560

19 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £750/€900/$975

20 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1200/€1440/$1560

21 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts November £1200/€1440/$1560

22 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts November £1800/€2160/$2340

23 Global AVOD Forecasts November £1800/€2160/$2340

24 Global SVOD Forecasts December £1800/€2160/$2340

25 Global OTT TV & Video Databook December £900/€1080/$1170

26 Global SVOD Databook December £900/€1080/$1170

Please note that the regional Pay TV reports (1-7 above) contain the content from last year’s Digital TV series and the Pay TV Operator series – so two reports in one for 2017. Likewise, the regional OTT reports (15-21 above) contain the content from 2016’s OTT series as well as the

content from 2016’s SVOD series.

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Discounts are available for multiple report purchases.

Please contact lydia@digitaltvresearch.com

Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2016 Title Publication

Date Price

Middle East & Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts May £900/$1350/€1125 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £900/$1350/€1125 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £900/$1350/€1125 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £500/$750/€625 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £900/$1350/€1125 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £900/$1350/€1125 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1500/$2250/€1875 Middle East & Africa SVOD Forecasts October £900/$1350/€1125

Asia Pacific SVOD Forecasts October £900/$1350/€1125 Latin America SVOD Forecasts November £900/$1350/€1125 North America SVOD Forecasts November £500/$750/€625

Eastern Europe SVOD Forecasts November £900/$1350/€1125 Western Europe SVOD Forecasts December £900/$1350/€1125 Global SVOD Forecasts December £1500/$2250/€1875

PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OUR LATEST PUBLICATIONS

PLEASE CLICK HERE TO ACCESS OUR CORPORATE BROCHURE