Wellbeing Engineering of Rural Smart Grids

Marcel J. Castro-Sitiriche

University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez

Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology

1st International Workshop on System Dynamics, Big Data and Cloud Computing

IAWSD 2015

“Transformation for Sustainable Development”

Kenya School of Monetary Studies, Nairobi, Kenya

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Universidad de Puerto RicoRecinto Universitario de Mayagüez

Colegio de Ingeniería

Sustainable Livelihoods

“… reducing poverty by empowering the poor to build on their opportunities.”

Clare Short, Foreword in

Diana Carney, Sustainable Livelihood Approaches:

Progress and Possibilities for Change

Overview

•Responsible Wellbeing and Energy Poverty

• Technology Innovation: Smart DC rural microgids• Smart Energy Meter• Data Analytics• Power Converters

•Agent Based Modeling

•Return-risk perception

Responsible Wellbeing and Threshold Hypothesis: Wellbeing vs Consumption

(a)

Consumption

We

llbe

ing

Region 1

PovertyResponsible Wellbeing

Affluence(excess)

Region 2 Region 3

(b)

Chambers, R. (1997), Editorial: Responsible well-being – a personal agenda for development. World Development 25: 1743–1754.

Point (a): minimum necessary

Max-Neef, M. (1995), Economic growth and quality of life: a threshold hypothesis, Ecological Economics, 15, 115–118.

AppropriateTechnology Responsible

Wellbeing

Point (b): threshold hypothesis

Responsible Wellbeing and Threshold Hypothesis: Wellbeing vs Consumption

(a)

Consumption

We

llbe

ing

Region 1

PovertyResponsible Wellbeing

Affluence(excess)

Region 2 Region 3

(b)

Chambers, R. (1997), Editorial: Responsible well-being – a personal agenda for development. World Development 25: 1743–1754.

Point (a): minimum necessary

Max-Neef, M. (1995), Economic growth and quality of life: a threshold hypothesis, Ecological Economics, 15, 115–118.

AppropriateTechnology Responsible

Wellbeing

Wellbeing Engineering

Point (b): threshold hypothesis

Quality of Life Enabled by Rural Electrification: Wellbeing vs Consumption

(a)Annual kWh per capita

Hap

py

Life

Yea

rs (

HLY

)

Region 1

PovertyResponsible Wellbeing

Affluence(excess)

Region 2 Region 3

(b)

Point (a): minimum necessary levelPoint (b): threshold hypothesis level

(i) (ii)

Point (i): absolute minimum as basic human rightPoint (ii): target level

60 kWh400 kWh

2,000 kWh

?

39.1 HLY

62.6 HLY

50.8 HLY

79.3 LE7.3 LS

66.7 LE4.6 LS

71.2 LE6.3 LS

Happy Life Years – HLYLife Expectancy – LE Life Satisfaction – LS

HLY = LE x LS/10

Energy Development Index Countries

49.245.4

43.5

38.537.4

34.6

30.9

28.2

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

Hap

py

Life

Ye

ars

Average Yearly Per-Capita Electric Energy Consumption (kWh)

Happy Life Years vs Per-Capital Electricity Consumption

79.3 LE7.3 LS

66.7 LE4.6 LS

71.2 LE6.3 LS

Level 2

AppropriateTechnology

Level 1 Level 3

60 kWh

400 kWh2,000 kWh

Level 1: basic human right - Madagascar

Level 2: minimum necessary - Guatemala

Level 3: target level - Costa Rica

Happy Life Years – HLYLife Expectancy – LE Life Satisfaction – LS

HLY = LE x LS/10

Poverty Responsible Wellbeing

LE LS HLY energy

Kenya 57.1 4.3 31.7 136 kWh

Tanzania 58.2 3.2 27.7 80 kWh

Energy Threshold Hypothesis: Switzerland

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Hap

py

Life

Ye

ars

Per Capita Electric Energy Consumption in a year (kWh)

Happy Life Years vs PerCapital Electricity Consumption

(b)

Point (b): threshold hypothesis - Switzerland

7,372 kWh

82.3 LE7.5 LS

66.5 HLY

• Switzerland had the highest Happy Life Years in the 2012 Happy Planet Index Report (of 151 countries)

• Life Expectancy: 82.3 years• Life Satisfaction: 7.5 out of 10 in the Cantrill Ladder• However, Switzerland was not the highest electric

energy consumer by far.

Energy Poverty

Africa Energy Outlook, 2014

Millions without Electricity

• 35 in Kenya• 36 in Tanzania• 31 in Uganda• 70 in Ethiopia• 10 in Rwanda• 9 in Burundi• 9 in Somalia

Country Electrification rate (%)Population without electricity

(millions)

Burundi 4.0 9

Djibuti 50 0.9

Eritrea 32.0 4

Ethiopia 17.0 70

Kenya 16.1 35

Rwanda 1.3 10

Somalia 10 9

Tanzania 13.9 36

Uganda 9.0 31

Eastern Africa 14 204

Sub-Saharan

Africa30.5 585.2

Africa 41.8 586.8Africa Energy Outlook, 2014; World Energy Outlook, 2012

Technology Innovation: Smart DC rural microgidsSmall Business Model:

• Solar Home Systems

• Autonomous DC Microgrid

• Smart Clusters of DC Microgrids

Energy Kiosks

Solar Home Systems

Autonomous DC Microgrid

Smart Clusters of DC Microgrids

Technology Product: Smart Solar Home System

DC-DC Bidirectional Power Converter

380 Vdc

12 Vdc

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box:Smart MeterCharge ControllerBatteryRemote Comm.

Connection to DC Microgrid

Smart Rural DC Microgrid

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC LoadsSmart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

DC-DC Bidirectional Power Converter

380 Vdc

12 Vdc

Smart Energy Box

DC Loads

Connection to DC Microgrid

Energy Scale

Energy Kiosks

Solar Home Systems

Smart Rural DC Microgrid

Network of Microgrids

400 kWh

60 kWh

Yearly Average Per C

apita

Electric Energy C

on

sum

ptio

n

G A P

Rural Electricity Energy Ladder

30W

80W

200W

Solar Home Systems

200W

1kW

10kW

10kW

25kW

100kW

Micro-grid

70kW

300kW

Mini-grid

Grid Tied

Remote Rural Smart Grid

Solar Home Systems

Data Analytics for Rural ElectrificationEl

ectr

ic P

ow

er • Renewable Energy Resource

• Power Demand

• Energy Storage

Soci

o-E

con

om

ic • Return on Investment

• Risk Assessment

• Social Impact

• Community Empowerment

Geo

grap

hic • GSM Modem

• Population Density

• Renewable Power Distribution

• Distance to Grid En

viro

nm

enta

l • Local Impact

• Household Health

• Community Resilience

Rural Electrification Pathways to WellbeingMarcel J. Castro-Sitiriche1,3, Jonathan Ozik2

University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez1, Argonne National Laboratory2

Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology3

Castro-Sitiriche, Marcel J., Jonathan Ozik; “Rural Electrification Pathways to Wellbeing”, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference of Appropriate Technology: Knowledge and Technology Transfer Session, Nairobi, Kenya, pages 54-63, November 2014.

Sponsored by the Department of Energy and the National Science FoundationDecision and Information Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory

Complex Systems Approach

Access to Electric Energy

Drivers of Wellbeing

Millennium Development

GoalsQuality of Life

Layard, R., A. Clark, and C. Senik. "The causes of happiness and misery“, chapter on World Happiness Report, Helliwell, John, Richard Layard, and Jeffrey Sachs (2012). http://www.earth.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/Sachs%20Writing/2012/World%20Happiness%20Report.pdf

Poor People’s Energy Outlook, Practical Action, 2010http://practicalaction.org/poor-peoples-energy-outlook-2010

Networks of Project Impacts

Rural Electrification Key Areas (4)

Drivers of Wellbeing (6)

Millennium Development Goals (6)

AutonomyLife

SatisfactionEmployment Competence

Sense of Purpose

ResilienceSocial

Relationships

Rural Electrification for Earning a Living

Energy for Earning a Living

Access to energy and increased incomes are strongly linked.

Incomes must be lifted to eradicate Poverty and Hunger

(MDG1)

Decrease the need for child manual labor

Children must be free to attend school for universal primary

education (MDG2)

Decrease time needed for women in manual tasks such as wood

collection

Income generation potential for women to promote gender

equality and empower women (MDG3)

Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People’s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action.

Networks of Project Impacts

1) Earning for a Living

Income

MDG1

Sense of Purpose

Work

MDG2

Employment Competence

2) Lightning

Social Capital

MDG3

Autonomy

3) Information & Communication Technologies, and 4) Cooling

Values

MDG4

Social Relationships

Environment

MDG5

Resilience

Health (mental and

physical)

MDG6

Life Satisfaction

Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People’s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action.

Networks of Project Impacts

1) Earning for a Living

Income

MDG1

Sense of Purpose

Work

MDG2

Employment Competence

2) Lightning

Social Capital

MDG3

Autonomy

3) Information & Communication Technologies, and 4) Cooling

Values

MDG4

Social Relationships

Education

MDG5

Resilience

Health (mental

and physical)

MDG6

Life Satisfaction

Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People’s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action.

Networks of Project Impacts

1) Earning for a Living

Income

MDG1

Sense of Purpose

Work

MDG2

Employment Competence

2) Lightning

Social Capital

MDG3

Autonomy

3) Information & Communication Technologies, and 4) Cooling

Values

MDG4

Social Relationships

Environment

MDG5

Resilience

Health (mental and

physical)

MDG6

Life Satisfaction

3) Information & Communication Technologies

Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People’s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action.

Networks of Project Impacts

1) Earning for a Living

Income

MDG1

Sense of Purpose

Work

MDG2

Employment Competence

2) Lightning

Social Capital

MDG3

Autonomy

3) Information & Communication Technologies, and 4) Cooling

Values

MDG4

Social Relationships

Environment

MDG5

Resilience

Health (mental and

physical)

MDG6

Life Satisfaction

Cooling

Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People’s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action.

Networks of Project Impacts

Source: Layard, R., A. Clark, and C. Senik, "The causes of happiness and misery”, chapter on World happiness report, Helliwell, John, Richard Layard, and Jeffrey Sachs (2012). weblink

Set of Variables to define the conceptual model

A. Rural Electrification

Key Areas

B. Drivers of

Wellbeing

C. Millennium

Development Goals

D. Wellbeing

Indicators

A1. Earning for a Living B1. Income C1. Eradicate extreme

poverty and hunger

D1. Autonomy

A2. Lighting B2. Work C2. Achieve universal

primary education

D2. Life Satisfaction

A3. Information &

Communication

Technologies

B3. Social Capital C3. Promote gender

equality and empower

women

D3. Employment and

Competence

A4. Cooling B4. Values C4. Reduce child

mortality

D4. Sense of Purpose

B5. Education C5. Improve maternal

health

D5. Resilience

B6. Health (mental and

physical)

C6. Combat HIV/AIDS,

malaria and other

diseases

D6. Social Relationships

Next Step: Agent Based Modeling

Case Study of Duchity, Haiti: Lack of Data to Build

• Develop Data from ongoing research project at Duchity, Haiti

• Develop Data from research at Ngarenanyuki and Leguruki, Tanzania

• Develop Data from Solar Home Systems Startup Company

• Use Data from other existing projects:• Energy for Development

• Wellbeing and Poverty Pathways

Links: Wellbeing and Development

Wellbeing and Poverty PathwaysUniversity of Bath (2014)

Namibia and India

Energy for Development

Southampton UniversityKitoyoni Project, Kenya.

Remote Rural Community Without Electricity Access

Complex Systems

Modeling

Responsible Wellbeing

Livelihood Security

SustainabilityEquity

Capabilities Approach

Environmental

Household Health

Local Impact

Electric Power Data

Renewable Energy Sources

Power Demand

Geographic Information

Distance to GridPopulation

Density

Level 3: Basic Human Right

Distance to Grid Population Density

Level 2: Minimum Necessary

Renewable Energy Sources

Power Demand

Level 1: Target Level

Household Health Local Impact

Layers of DataLevels of Electric

Energy Consumption

Adapted from: Chambers, Robert. 1997 “Editorial: Responsible Wellbeing – A Personal Agenda for Development”,

World Development 25(11): 1743-1754.

Model of Renewable Energy Policy and Investment

Adapted from: Wüstenhagen, Rolf, and Emanuela Menichetti. "Strategic choices for renewable energy

investment: Conceptual framework and opportunities for further research." Energy Policy 40 (2012): 1-10.

Energy PolicyComplex Systems

Modeling

Return-risk Perception

Investment

Modified Model of Renewable Energy Policy and Investment

Extended Model

Energy PolicyStakeholder

Engagement: ABMS

Return-risk Perception

Investment

Rural Electrification

Projects

Pathways of Wellbeing

Social Impact Evaluation:

ABMS

Quality of Life in Rural

Communities

Motivation for Complex Systems Analysis

Hypotheses to test:

• The Return-risk Perception for small remote rural energy investment is worse than the actual return-risk relationship.

• The impact of electrification projects on human wellbeing depends on many variables, most of them social, and each community has an optimum level of electricity consumption that will fall under the suggested defined levels.

GRACIAS - ASANTEmarcel.castro@upr.eduUniversity of Puerto Rico in MayagüezElectrical and Computer Engineering

marcel.castro@nm-aist.ac.tzNelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology

http://greatidea.uprm.edu

Sponsored by the: Fulbright Scholarship 2014-2015, SabbaticalGREAT-IDEA and CRWS NSF Project Grants #103302 and #1449489

Universidad de Puerto RicoRecinto Universitario de Mayagüez

Colegio de Ingeniería