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OVERVIEW: UNDERSTANDING COMPLEXITY

Complexity, What is it? Why Does it Matter? Complex Attributes.

DiversityConnectednessInterdependentAdaptation

Complexity vs. Uncertainty Harnessing Complexity Review and Reflection

Assemble the item in the diagram provided in the allotted time. Work as a group Designate a subject

matter expert—engineer. Designate and observer. Use the materials provided. 1 minute to

prepare. 9 minutes to construct.

Have Fun!Be Safe!

GET SET!

Objective Team Construct Team Dynamics Relation to Other Teams Pressure to Succeed Risk of Failure Personal View of Games ETC.

Anything that keeps us from producing exactly what we want at the precise time we want it.

Operational Complexity

HOW WAS THIS AN EXAMPLE OF COMPLEXITY

THIS IS WHAT IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE .. DOES YOURS?

Certainty about outcomes is in the air the organization breathes. Complicated systems use the most sophisticated

math, technical, and engineering expertise in mapping out flow charts to solve problems.

Complex systems are filled with hundreds of moving parts, scores of players of varied expertise and independence yet

missing a “mission control” that runs all these different parts within an ever-changing political, economic, and societal

environment. The result: constant adaptations in design and action.

CLASSIC DEFINITIONSA complicated system assumes expert and rational

leaders, top-down planning, smooth implementation of policies, and a clock-like organization that runs

smoothly. Work is specified and delegated to particular units.

We describe something as complex when it consists of interdependent, diverse entities, and we assume that those entities adapt—they respond to

their local and global environments.

Interdependent Diverse Adapt Connected

Simple Rugged Dancing

COMPLEXITY DEFINED

Landscape MattersAttributes

They offer the opportunity to deliver robust solutions, often from the bottom up.

Increase the opportunity for success despite an uncertain future.

Better adapt to emergent conditions, particularly when limited notice has been given.

Allows an organization to deal with issues of significant scope and reach.

Often capable of delivering a lasting solution faster, even under conditions of great duress.

COMPLEXITY DEFINED

Attribute SignificanceInterdependent One part links to another. Do

something in or to one part and it will effect another.

Diverse More than one entity, variation, characteristic that compose the whole and perhaps even substantive parts.

Adapt Influence of one part may move another to act in like manner. Motive unknown.

Connected Entity is linked and in many cases influenced by other entities outside the entity itself.

ATTRIBUTES

Interdependency

Diversity

Adaptability

Connectedness

OPTIMIZING COMPLEX SYSTEMS

SIMPLERUGGED

DANCING

LANDSCAPE

1970s-19921960s TWA invests in

ALL jet fleet

1970s cash rich TWA Corp diversifies

1980s carried 50% of all trans Atlantic PAX,

deregulation forces hubs

1992 Bankrupt

1930-1970Founded 1930—Mail Carrier, 1938 Howard Hughes buys stock

1940s-50s rapid growth

1960s technological leader, secure routes.

1970s 3rd largest airline, spans globe.

How does TWA’s fate link to their failure to embrace complexity?

CONSIDER TWA

Attribute ImpactInterdependent Large investments in planes, airport facilities,

repair and maintenance, sales offices in densely populated areas, food service, etc.

Diversity Planes? Airports? Service? Cities served? PRICE?

Very little inside the company, profit heavily dependent on foreign routes, nothing distinctive about service as other airlines adopt new technologies, match service options.

CONSIDER diversity vertically and horizontally.

Adapt Worked to develop sophisticated hub/spoke system (STL/NYC), buy more domestic capacity, secure more financial support to expand.

Connected Fuels prices, increased competition both domestically and internationally under deregulation force economizing.

CONSIDER TWA

Lessons

Take your own advice, don’t believe your own hype.

Don’t take revenge on your own past.

Accept that luck plays a part in your success.ENJOY your success!

Believe in the miracle of the mundane.

If you don’t understand something others will mislead you!

One more deal won’t salvage a broken business model.

Jamie Oliver & Tony Goodwin

2010

HOW THEY BLEW IT

Areas of interdependency Evidence of diversity Proof of adaptability Connectedness

LEARNING CAFE

Explore the complex nature of post secondary education.

20 minutes, 5 minutes at each chart Recorder, Reporter stays ate each chart Prepare short summary of key points to share Rest rotate on command

Learning

Cafe

Every system presents issues that offer some amount of certainty and uncertainty. The question is how do you know what’s true,

what deserves to be responded to or is simply another false trail filled with the promise of

frustration or worse, false hope ?

Sometimes the answer is as simple as it

looks. Consider the case of how to put a

giraffe into a refrigerator.

CERTAINTY VS UNCERTAINTY

Consider simple answers or approaches before looking for complicated ones. Just because the problem is hard doesn’t

mean the answer is. Think about the consequences of your

previous actions. Every action begets a reaction.

Use all available information. Don’t let perfection be the enemy of good

enough. Focus on the big picture, not just part of it.

It’s important to distinguish the forest from the trees.

HARNESSING COMPLEXITY

Issue ConsiderationsSetting incentives Typical command and control technique, links

reward to specific desired outcome.

Inject Diversity Expands scope and reach of options and opportunities, prevents error, enhances buy-in.

Keep eye on tails Don’t be pushed or pulled, let momentum build and move you forward. Evolution vs. Revolution

Watch out for little efficiency gains.

Tendency is to reach for the stars and settle for much less, or worse yet, seize on an easy solution that has an adverse effect.

Sever/Build connections

Embrace the new, be willing to release the past.

HARNESSING TIPSScott Page—The Difference . . . .

“Complex systems are inherently interesting, producers of robust solutions, but they are not clean and simple, which makes them a lively playground for the mind.”

Record 2-3 ideas, issues that came out of the discussion that were most meaningful to you.

REFLECTION

Personal/Professional Investment Plan 2013-2014Personal Object of My Desire

Time to complete. Things to do. Why this matters to me.

How will I know I’m done; what does success look/feel like?

Journal Discussion with mentor/buddy. Objective assessment.

Professional Object of my Desire

Time to complete. Things to do. Why this matters to me.

How will I know I’m done; what does success look/feel like?

Journal Discussion with mentor/buddy. Objective assessment.

PERSONAL INVESTMENT PLAN (PIP)