wednesday, may 05, 2021
TRANSCRIPT
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, May 05, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
FROM EQUITY REPORT
Danareksa Research Institute: GDP Outlook 1Q21:
Sluggish Recovery Continues
GDP growth in the 1Q21 is estimated to reach 1.24% qoq or -1.03% yoy. On an annual basis, GDP is forcasted to reach 3.39%-4.31%.
The weak economic recovery reflects sluggish household consumption amid restrictions on public activities (PPKM) and the
disbursement of funds from social protection programs. In addition, investment and exports showed limited growth while imports started
to recover in 1Q21.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
Semen Indonesia: Flattish net profits on a lower top line
(SMGR IJ. IDR 10,050 BUY TP. IDR 15,700)
SMGR booked flattish 1Q21 earnings of IDR450bn (+0.9%yoy) on the back of lower domestic cement sales volume and lower ASP.
SMGR sold 9.7mn tons of cement in 1Q21 (+2.1%yoy), supported by strong regional sales (+58%yoy) as domestic sales were -
8.4%yoy. As for ASP, they were down by -7.7%yoy. Lower interest
expenses (-27%yoy) supported the bottom line. SMGR is speeding up its debts repayment as it seeks to repay ~IDR2.1tn of debts in
2021, including IDR1.0tn of unscheduled debts. BUY maintained. To see the full version of this report, please click here
MARKET NEWS MACROECONOMY ▪ Government may consider to raise VAT in 2022
CORPORATE
▪ LPPF:IJ Auric Digital, voluntary tender offer. ▪ Earnings call takeaways, more growth from other business
pillars, conservative view on mobile.
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ Adhi Karya: The latest major project is doing well
▪ United Tractors: Komatsu 2021 sales target revised up ▪ Aneka Tambang: Better earnings from the gold and nickel
division ▪ Surya Semesta Internusa: Positive turnaround from
undeveloped land sales
▪ Surya Citra Media: Officially Back To Green ▪ Malindo Feedmill Indonesia: Higher revenues but lower
margins ▪ Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Still Negative, More Waiting
▪ Sarana Menara Nusantara: Balancing efficiently repricing of
towers, solid BUY ▪ Perusahaan Gas Negara: Despite all, PGN is buoyant for
growth ▪ Telco: Misaligned strategies, no clear winner
▪ Adaro Energy: Signs of recovery in the coal prices ▪ Bukit Asam: Soft 1Q21 earnings
▪ Mayora Indah: Above estimates on strong top line
▪ Gudang Garam: Mediocre results
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 5.964 0,2 (0,3) 545
Thailand 1.583 (0,5) 9,2 2.730
Philippines 6.359 (0,2) (10,9) 93
Malaysia 1.588 (0,2) (2,4) 1.033
Singapore 3.179 (0,2) 11,8 871
Regional
China 3.447 (0,8) (0,8) 69.863
Hong Kong 28.557 0,7 4,9 11.706
Japan 28.813 (0,8) 5,0 16.930
Korea 3.147 0,6 9,5 15.121
Taiwan 16.934 (1,7) 14,9 23.906
India 48.254 (1,0) 1,1 807
Nasdaq 13.634 (1,9) 5,8 278.214
Dow Jones 34.133 0,1 11,5 17.200
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318
Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454
Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87
Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338
Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908
Regional
China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889
Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093
Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278
Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790
Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534
India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495
Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797
Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14.430 0,4 0,6 (2,7)
BI7DRRR % 3,50 - - (0,3)
10y Gov Indo bond 6,45 (0,1) (0,2) 0,6
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9
BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0)
10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9)
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 93 0,2 (3,6) 15,5
Gold US$/toz 1.778 (0,1) 2,9 (6,4)
Nickel US$/mt.ton 17.644 (0,1) 9,1 6,6
Tin US$/mt.ton 31.839 0,5 19,3 55,0
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 279 1,7 28,0 50,3
Corn US$/mt.ton 66 0,8 12,9 36,5
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 69 0,8 11,7 34,0
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 4.525 0,6 9,9 19,5
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 168 0,5 1,7 11,8
Rubber USd/kg 1.205 N/A 2,8 20,5
Pulp US$/tonne 450 0,3 6,2 6,9
Coffee US$/60kgbag 198 (0,1) 18,3 15,6
Sugar US$/MT 68 (0,5) 30,3 56,8
Wheat US$/ton 1.577 1,1 12,5 19,9
Soy Oil US$/lb 279 1,7 28,0 50,3
SoyBean US$/by 66 0,8 12,9 36,5
Source: Bloomberg
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0)
Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2
Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6
Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1)
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7
Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8
Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6
Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5
Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5
Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6
Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1)
Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9
Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3)
Source: Bloomberg
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www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Company Update
Wednesday,05 May 2021
Semen Indonesia(SMGR IJ) BUY
Maintain Flattish net profits on a lower top line
SMGR booked flattish 1Q21 earnings of IDR450bn (+0.9%yoy) on the back of lower domestic cement sales volume and lower ASP. SMGR sold 9.7mn tons of cement in 1Q21 (+2.1%yoy), supported by strong regional sales (+58%yoy) as domestic sales were -8.4%yoy. As for ASP, they were down by -7.7%yoy. Lower interest expenses (-27%yoy) supported the bottom line. SMGR is speeding up its debts repayment as it seeks to repay ~IDR2.1tn of debts in 2021, including IDR1.0tn of unscheduled debts. BUY maintained.
Flattish 1Q21 earnings. SMGR booked revenues in 1Q21 of IDR8.1tn (-5.9%yoy) due to lower domestic sales volume and lower ASP. Based on our calculations, the blended ASP is down by -7.7%yoy. The gross margin stood at 28.6% vs. 31.5% in the previous year. This resulted in a relatively stable EBITDA margin at 23.3%. On the back of lower interest expenses (-27.1%yoy to IDR444bn), net profits reached IDR450bn. The net profit is slightly higher (+0.9%yoy) than in the previous year (IDR446bn). The 1Q21 earnings are 14% of our FY target.
Sales volume up by 2%yoy in 1Q21. SMGR sold 9.7mn tons of cement, +2.1%yoy from 9.5mn tons in 1Q20 supported by strong regional sales. Regional sales jumped by 58.1%yoy to 2.4mn tons or reaching 24% of the sales. The regional sales include export sales from Indonesian plants and sales at Thang Long Vietnam (TLCC). By comparison, domestic sales reached 7.3mn tons, or -8.4%yoy on the back of lower bulk sales as some infrastructure projects had stalled. The management is sticking with its 2021 growth target of 4-5%yoy.
Repaying its debts. SMGR paid off IDR500bn of debts in 1Q21. This excludes IDR1.1tn of scheduled debts to be repaid this year. The management seeks to repay around IDR2.1tn of debts in 2021. However, the volunteered early payment is subject to the company’s cash flow position. SMGR booked higher operating cash flow (+59%yoy to IDR648bn in 1Q21) thanks to the improved cash flow management. As of Mar21, SMGR’s debts stood at IDR25.2tn (Dec20: IDR25.7tn), resulting in a DER of 0.72x and ICR of 2.36x. SMGR is one of the beneficiaries of the low interest rates trend as most of SMGR’s debts are bank loans with a contribution reaching 61%. The interest rate is based on Jibor + 1.85%.
SBI rights issue to be held in Jul 21. The partnership between SBI and the Japanese cement company, Taiheiyo Cement Corporation (TCC), is still on track. TCC will absorb all the new shares to be issued by SBI through the rights issue which is equivalent to a 15% stake. The rights issue is targeted to be conducted in Jul21. TCC is committed to investing USD220mn in SBI. The rights issue proceeds of around IDR3tn will be used by SBI to repay its debts.
Maintain BUY. We maintain our BUY call on SMGR, as we expect higher bulk sales volume in 2H21 as the cycle of infrastructure development will lead to more demand for cement. SMGR is the only cement manufacturer in Indonesia which is able to produce multi brand or cross bagging products at any of its plants across Indonesia. SMGR owns 5 cement brands.
Last price (IDR) 10,050
Target Price (IDR) 15,700
Upside/Downside +56.2%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 15,700
Stock Statistics
Sector Cement
Bloomberg Ticker SMGR IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 5,932
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 59,612/4,131
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 64.0/4.4
Major shareholders (%)
Government 51.0
Public 49.0
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2021F 2022F 2023F
Danareksa 548.4 648.9 780.5
Consensus 523.5 645.0 752.1
Danareksa/Cons 4.8 0.6 3.8
SMGR relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
x Maria Renata
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3513
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Revenue (IDRbn) 40,368 35,172 37,024 38,985 41,151 EBITDA (IDRbn) 8,529 8,744 9,240 9,977 10,722 EBITDA Growth (%) 31.1 2.5 5.7 8.0 7.5 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,392 2,792 3,253 3,849 4,629 EPS (IDR) 403.3 470.8 548.4 648.9 780.5 EPS growth (%) (22.3) 16.7 16.5 18.3 20.3 BVPS (IDR) 5,441.6 5,761.3 6,262.6 6,856.7 7,572.2 DPS (IDR) 207.6 40.3 47.1 54.8 64.9 PER (x) 24.9 21.3 18.3 15.5 12.9 PBV (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 Dividend yield (%) 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0 9.4 8.7 7.7 6.8
Source : SMGR, BRI Danareksa Estimates
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, May 05, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
MACROECONOMY
Government may consider to raise VAT in 2022
The govt targets tax revenue in 2022 to grow by 8.37% to 8.42% yoy. In order to achieve this target, the govt may consider to increase VAT rate. As for the posture plan for the State Budget (APBN) 2022, the govt sets the outlook
for tax revenues of IDR 1,499.3-1,528.7tn, or higher than this year's projection of IDR 1,444.5tn. The Ministry of Finance said there will be four government strategies to pursue tax revenue targets, i.e. 1) to explore potential
innovation while maintaining the investment climate and sustainability of the business, 2) broadening the tax base, 3) strengthening the tax system, 4) providing measurable fiscal incentives. In terms of expanding the tax base,
among others, collecting e-commerce taxes, implementing plastic excise, increasing VAT rates, and a tax system that
is in line with the economic structure. Especially for the VAT increase plan, the govt is currently still reviewing this option. (Kontan)
CORPORATE
LPPF:IJ Auric Digital, voluntary tender offer.
At IDR1, 530/share to total 40% from public, while also offer to buy Greater Universal Limited an OUE. The Bidco is a related party as it controlled by Lippo, and post transaction Bidco could hold up to 50.1%. (Investor Daily)
Earnings call takeaways, more growth from other business pillars, conservative view on mobile.
Telkom offered its guidance for 2021, expecting consolidated revenue growth to grow by low to mid single digit. Moreover the EBITDA margin is expected to remain stable. Capital expenditure for the group is estimated to be 25%
of the revenue.
In terms of competition landscape Telkomsel took steps to protect market position in last 6 months of 2020, and now TSEL has achieved those objectives. Moving forward, looking the other players in the markets we foresee healthy
recovery and overall the industry is much more rational now. By having now 50MHz spectrum, it will strengthen network position with 4G leadership and also preparing 5G
implementation in Indonesia in 2021, in upcoming few months we will see the launch.
Telkom sees no aggressive movements from competitors in fixed broadband in places where they have the same footprint. The landscape is very comfortable, and Telkom is better equipped with end to end fiber vs. competitors.
Telkom sees no ARPU correction at this point as higher speeds are now more available and also more WFH and SFH, the demand is stronger. Customers are asking higher speed for Indihome service. Additionally with more content
available for Indihome, the ARPU trend should be positive. In enterprise business Telkom is becoming more selective
in choosing projects, in choosing clients and watching the profitability of the business. It is profitable although low currently. Enterprise will it our future business expecting to have similar traction with Indihome.
MARKET NEWS
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
Danareksa Universe 3.884.863 169.959 225.307 132 175 -27,5% 32,6% 22,9 17,2 13,0 11,3 2,3 2,2 10,2 12,9
Auto 222.660 16.164 17.169 399 424 -25,5% 6,2% 13,8 13,0 8,9 7,6 1,5 1,4 10,7 10,9
Astra International BUY 5.500 7.500 222.660 16.164 17.169 399 424 266 368 -25,5% 6,2% 13,8 13,0 8,9 7,6 1,5 1,4 10,7 10,9
Banks 1.256.276 53.429 66.496 407 506 -30,6% 24,5% 23,5 18,9 2,3 2,2 9,5 11,7
BCA HOLD 32.000 34.000 788.960 27.131 29.901 1.100 1.213 1.100 1.213 -5,0% 10,2% 29,1 26,4 N/A N/A 4,3 4,0 15,1 15,6
BNI BUY 5.625 8.000 104.899 3.280 7.083 176 380 176 380 -78,7% 115,9% 32,0 14,8 N/A N/A 1,0 0,9 2,8 6,3
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1.600 2.200 16.944 1.602 1.826 151 172 151 172 666,5% 14,0% 10,6 9,3 N/A N/A 0,9 0,8 7,5 9,0
Bank Mandiri BUY 6.100 8.000 284.667 17.119 21.964 367 471 367 471 -37,7% 28,3% 16,6 13,0 N/A N/A 1,5 1,4 8,7 11,4
BTPN HOLD 2.840 3.200 23.143 1.953 2.995 240 368 240 368 -24,1% 53,4% 11,8 7,7 N/A N/A 0,7 0,7 6,4 9,3
BTPS BUY 3.320 4.200 25.576 855 1.456 111 189 111 189 -38,9% 70,3% 29,9 17,6 N/A N/A 4,4 3,7 15,2 22,8
BPD Jatim HOLD 805 850 12.087 1.489 1.271 99 85 99 85 8,1% -14,6% 8,1 9,5 N/A N/A 1,2 1,1 15,5 12,3
Cement 105.167 4.740 5.576 493 580 2,4% 17,6% 22,2 18,9 10,6 9,4 1,8 1,8 8,4 9,7
Indocement BUY 12.375 18.100 45.555 1.487 1.727 404 469 404 469 -19,0% 16,1% 30,6 26,4 19,3 17,1 2,0 2,0 6,5 7,6
Semen Indonesia BUY 10.050 15.700 59.612 3.253 3.849 548 649 357 397 16,5% 18,3% 18,3 15,5 7,8 6,8 1,7 1,7 9,8 11,0
Cigarettes 219.903 17.150 16.375 145 138 -30,3% -4,5% 12,8 13,4 7,8 8,1 2,4 2,4 19,4 17,8
Gudang Garam HOLD 35.700 42.100 68.690 7.632 7.867 3.967 4.089 4.260 4.057 -29,9% 3,1% 9,0 8,7 5,2 5,1 1,2 1,1 13,9 12,9
HM Sampoerna SELL 1.300 1.100 151.214 9.518 8.508 82 73 82 73 -30,6% -10,6% 15,9 17,8 10,6 11,7 4,8 5,0 28,4 27,6
Construction 78.024 5.127- 4.067 -69 54 -161,5% -179,3% (15,2) 19,2 23,18 11,51 1,0 0,9 6,3- 5,0
Wijaya Karya BUY 1.470 2.700 13.186 146 788 16 88 16 88 -93,6% 438,3% 90,1 16,7 19,8 7,7 0,8 0,8 0,9 4,8
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 1.285 2.500 7.967 74 439 12 71 36 74 -92,1% 493,4% 107,7 18,2 11,8 8,2 0,6 0,5 0,5 3,0
Adhi Karya BUY 1.170 2.500 4.166 36 422 10 119 -11 132 -94,5% 1059,2% 114,3 9,9 11,0 8,6 0,6 0,6 0,5 6,0
Waskita Karya BUY 1.095 2.000 14.863 -4.141 489 -305 36 -314 25 -541,4% -111,8% (3,6) 30,4 375,8 18,1 1,1 1,0 (26,2) 3,5
Waskita Beton BUY 202 370 5.325 -1.574 353 -60 13 -34 13 -295,2% -122,4% (3,4) 15,1 48,5- 9,7 1,0 0,9 (23,4) 6,4
Wika Beton BUY 300 610 2.615 87 322 10 37 10 37 -83,0% 270,5% 30,1 8,1 8,9 5,5 0,8 0,7 2,5 9,1
Jasa Marga BUY 4.120 5.900 29.902 244 1.254 34 173 83 228 -88,9% 413,8% 122,5 23,8 14,4 12,0 1,6 1,5 1,3 6,4
Consumer 438.211 20.816 22.664 253 275 4,9% 8,9% 21,1 19,3 14,0 12,5 4,9 4,5 24,6 24,4
Indofood CBP BUY 8.525 13.000 99.418 5.962 7.081 511 607 557 607 18,3% 18,8% 16,7 14,0 15,7 12,7 3,5 3,1 22,2 23,4
Indofood BUY 6.575 8.100 57.731 5.249 5.735 598 653 696 653 6,9% 9,3% 11,0 10,1 6,9 6,2 1,4 1,3 13,4 13,6
Unilever HOLD 5.750 7.500 219.363 7.250 7.548 190 198 190 198 -1,9% 4,1% 30,3 29,1 21,4 20,7 38,9 36,4 132,7 129,4
Kino Indonesia SELL 2.340 2.500 3.343 212 198 148 138 148 138 -59,3% -6,7% 15,8 16,9 11,6 10,5 1,2 1,2 8,0 7,1
Mayora Indah BUY 2.610 3.100 58.356 2.143 2.102 96 94 84 94 7,8% -1,9% 27,2 27,8 17,3 16,0 5,2 4,6 20,5 17,6
Pharmaceutical 107.263 3.642 3.956 44 48 10,3% 8,6% 29,4 27,1 20,0 18,2 3,8 3,6 13,5 13,7
Sido Muncul HOLD 775 850 23.250 934 1.029 31 34 30 33 15,6% 10,2% 24,9 22,6 21,8 20,0 7,4 7,2 30,0 32,2
Kalbe Farma BUY 1.470 1.900 68.906 2.652 2.828 57 60 57 60 5,8% 6,7% 26,0 24,4 17,0 15,9 3,9 3,6 15,9 15,4
Kimia Farma SELL 2.720 1.500 15.107 56 99 10 18 10 18 -543,5% 75,7% 267,8 152,5 35,0 27,1 2,1 2,0 0,8 1,3
Heavy Equipment 80.478 6.003 9.229 1.609 2.474 -46,9% 53,7% 13,4 8,7 4,7 3,5 1,3 1,2 10,0 14,3
United Tractors BUY 21.575 31.000 80.478 6.003 9.229 1.609 2.474 1.922 2.648 -46,9% 53,7% 13,4 8,7 4,7 3,5 1,3 1,2 10,0 14,3
Industrial Estate 15.123 905 1.159 14 19 -49,9% 28,1% 16,7 13,1 10,9 8,6 1,0 1,0 6,1 7,7
Puradelta Lestari HOLD 240 250 11.568 858 925 18 19 18 19 -35,7% 7,8% 13,5 12,5 12,3 10,3 1,8 1,8 13,2 14,1
Bekasi Fajar BUY 151 200 1.457 145 310 15 32 11 27 -61,8% 114,1% 10,0 4,7 7,9 4,9 0,3 0,3 3,2 6,7
Surya Semesta BUY 446 800 2.099 -98 -77 -21 -16 -21 -16 -206,6% -22,2% (21,3) (27,4) 10,2 9,2 0,5 0,6 (2,5) (2,0)
Media 36.986 3.134 3.974 105 133 -5,7% 26,8% 11,8 9,3 7,2 6,0 2,1 1,9 18,5 21,3
Media Nusantara Citra BUY 960 1.700 14.448 1.951 2.710 130 180 130 180 -13,5% 38,9% 7,4 5,3 4,6 3,4 1,0 0,9 15,1 18,0
Surya Citra Media HOLD 1.525 1.950 22.538 1.183 1.264 80 85 79 85 10,6% 6,8% 19,1 17,8 12,4 11,6 7,3 5,6 29,7 35,5
Mining 219.635 9.189 14.993 104 169 -25,6% 63,2% 23,9 14,6 7,1 6,3 1,5 1,4 6,4 10,0
Adaro Energy BUY 1.250 1.800 39.982 3.493 5.368 109 168 190 182 -39,5% 53,7% 11,4 7,4 2,7 2,5 0,7 0,7 6,1 9,0
Timah HOLD 1.840 1.600 13.704 -168 394 -23 53 -39 59 -72,6% -334,9% (81,6) 34,7 20,7 10,7 2,7 2,5 (3,2) 7,4
Vale Indonesia BUY 4.880 6.800 48.489 1.179 2.158 119 217 127 153 44,6% 83,1% 41,1 22,5 12,0 10,6 1,7 1,6 4,2 7,4
Aneka Tambang BUY 2.620 3.000 62.961 1.283 1.807 53 75 38 49 561,8% 40,8% 49,1 34,8 24,4 20,9 3,3 3,2 6,9 9,3
Bukit Asam BUY 2.300 3.600 26.498 2.451 3.618 213 314 213 314 -39,6% 47,6% 10,8 7,3 7,3 4,6 1,5 1,4 13,6 19,5
Indo Tambangraya Megah BUY 12.100 14.500 13.672 554 1.349 490 1.194 1.531 1.483 -70,0% 143,6% 24,7 10,1 2,9 2,8 1,1 1,1 4,3 10,5
Harum Energy SELL 5.300 2.500 14.329 398 298 147 110 116 126 46,3% -25,0% 36,0 48,1 15,1 13,9 3,2 3,1 9,0 6,5
Petrochemical 266.374 2.229 4.416 20 40 19,0% 98,1% 119,5 60,3 20,5 19,7 6,1 5,9 5,2 10,0
Barito Pacif ic HOLD 1.000 1.100 93.389 1.747 2.499 19 27 14 12 13,1% 43,1% 53,5 37,4 12,4 11,5 5,5 5,4 10,2 14,5
Chandra Asri Petrochemical HOLD 9.700 8.900 172.985 483 1.917 27 107 94 105 46,8% 297,1% 358,3 90,2 38,0 36,4 6,5 6,3 1,8 7,1
Plantation 42.583 2.523 3.629 87 126 284,2% 43,8% 16,9 11,7 6,4 5,5 1,2 1,1 7,1 9,7
Astra Agro Lestari BUY 9.675 17.500 18.621 833 1.329 433 691 518 618 294,6% 59,5% 22,4 14,0 6,9 5,8 1,0 0,9 4,4 6,7
Dharma Satya BUY 590 900 6.254 477 826 45 78 24 44 165,1% 73,2% 13,1 7,6 4,1 3,6 1,6 1,4 12,5 19,9
Saw it Sumbermas BUY 910 1.450 8.668 517 690 54 72 62 71 4323,8% 33,5% 16,8 12,6 6,2 5,8 2,0 1,8 12,4 15,1
PP London Sumatra BUY 1.325 1.850 9.040 696 784 102 115 61 68 174,1% 12,6% 13,0 11,5 8,6 7,6 1,0 1,0 8,0 8,7
Poultry 137.736 4.126 5.211 136 172 -25,5% 26,3% 33,4 26,4 18,1 14,4 3,9 3,6 14,1 14,1
Charoen Pokphand HOLD 6.825 6.500 111.916 3.067 3.665 187 224 188 224 -15,6% 19,5% 36,5 30,5 20,9 18,0 5,0 4,5 14,1 15,4
Japfa Comfeed HOLD 2.030 1.700 23.805 1.136 1.419 97 121 38 93 -35,6% 24,9% 21,0 16,8 12,7 9,1 2,2 2,0 10,6 12,6
Malindo Feedmill BUY 900 1.400 2.015 -77 127 -35 57 -60 35 -156,9% -264,0% (26,0) 15,9 12,6 7,6 1,0 1,0 (3,9) 6,4
Property 89.907 3.354 5.361 27 44 -59,1% 59,8% 26,8 16,8 12,0 9,3 1,1 1,0 4,5 6,5
Alam Sutera HOLD 190 220 3.733 -23 407 -1 21 20 22 -102,3% -1869,6% (162,3) 9,2 7,7 6,2 0,4 0,3 (0,2) 3,8
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1.190 1.500 25.194 1.387 2.394 66 113 67 123 -50,3% 72,6% 18,2 10,5 10,7 6,4 0,8 0,8 5,6 7,5
Ciputra Development BUY 1.155 1.400 21.437 796 845 43 46 43 46 -31,3% 6,2% 26,9 25,4 14,1 12,1 1,3 1,3 5,1 5,1
Pakuw on Jati HOLD 535 530 25.765 1.047 1.524 22 32 26 33 -61,5% 45,6% 24,6 16,9 12,3 10,0 1,6 1,5 6,8 9,3
Summarecon BUY 955 1.100 13.778 147 191 10 13 6 12 -71,4% 29,7% 93,7 72,3 15,6 15,6 1,8 1,8 2,0 2,5
Utility 29.938 1.605 2.386 66 98 65,0% 48,7% 18,7 12,5 4,1 3,7 0,7 0,7 4,0 5,8
PGN BUY 1.235 2.900 29.938 1.605 2.386 66 98 167 163 65,0% 48,7% 18,7 12,5 4,1 3,7 0,7 0,7 4,0 5,8
Retail 47.583 971- 2.227 -22 51 -124,4% -329,2% (49,0) 21,4 12,8 5,9 3,1 2,7 6,1- 13,6
Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 780 1.050 12.948 -698 619 -42 37 -36 37 -174,8% -188,6% (18,6) 20,9 7,8 3,5 2,5 2,1 (12,3) 11,0
Ramayana BUY 750 1.050 5.322 -200 324 -28 46 -28 43 -130,8% -262,3% (26,7) 16,4 31,2 6,6 1,5 1,3 (5,1) 8,4
Matahari Department Store SELL 1.660 1.100 4.359 -873 323 -332 123 -232 187 -163,9% -137,0% (5,0) 13,5 6,4 2,1 4,3 2,9 (63,3) 25,5
Ace Hardw are BUY 1.455 1.800 24.953 799 961 47 56 47 60 -22,4% 20,2% 31,2 26,0 22,9 18,2 4,6 4,3 15,9 17,1
Telco 488.561 24.973 33.190 132 176 5,1% 32,9% 19,6 14,7 5,6 5,2 3,2 3,0 16,7 21,1
Telekomunikasi Indonesia BUY 3.210 4.600 317.990 20.659 24.510 209 247 232 260 10,7% 18,6% 15,4 13,0 5,0 4,7 3,1 3,0 20,3 23,3
Indosat BUY 6.200 7.000 33.690 -717 1.761 -132 324 -197 -3 145,7% 345,6% (47,0) 19,1 4,1 3,7 2,8 2,8 (5,8) 14,6
XL Axiata BUY 2.030 3.300 21.771 1.042 1.971 97 184 98 157 180,1% 89,2% 20,9 11,0 2,6 2,4 1,0 1,0 5,1 9,0
Tow er Bersama HOLD 2.570 1.950 58.228 1.108 1.897 49 84 49 84 35,2% 71,3% 52,6 30,7 18,5 14,9 9,2 7,8 19,6 27,5
Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 1.115 1.400 56.881 2.881 3.051 56 60 56 60 23,0% 5,9% 19,7 18,6 13,2 13,2 5,5 5,0 30,1 28,0
Transportation 2.454 1.059 2.026 149 285 108,6% 91,3% 2,3 1,2 8,1 4,9 1,1 1,0 47,6 86,6
Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal BUY 530 600 964 17 55 9 30 9 30 -87,4% 224,6% 56,6 17,4 11,7 3,6 0,8 0,8 1,5 4,7
Jasa Armada Indonesia BUY 282 425 1.490 1.042 1.971 197 373 17 18 180,1% 89,2% 1,4 0,8 7,0 6,0 1,3 1,2 94,0 169,0
Trade 13.048 1.017 1.203 253 300 42,0% 18,3% 12,8 10,8 7,6 6,7 1,5 1,4 11,9 13,3
AKR Corporindo BUY 3.250 3.700 13.048 1.017 1.203 253 300 253 300 42,0% 18,3% 12,8 10,8 7,6 6,7 1,5 1,4 11,9 13,3
EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE
Equity
Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, May 05, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
LEADERS Price as on
Code 04-May-21 03-May-21 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Timah TINS 1.840 1.720 7,0 16,1 21,5 23,9 HOLD
Vale Indonesia INCO 4.880 4.570 6,8 12,7 10,2 (4,3) BUY
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 1.285 1.205 6,6 4,0 0,4 (31,1) BUY
Harum Energy HRUM 5.300 4.990 6,2 10,0 7,1 77,9 SELL
Aneka Tambang ANTM 2.620 2.520 4,0 9,6 19,1 35,4 BUY
Barito Pacific BRPT 1.000 965 3,6 4,7 4,2 (9,1) HOLD
United Tractors UNTR 21.575 20.950 3,0 (0,1) (2,8) (18,9) BUY
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 9.675 9.425 2,7 3,5 (6,1) (21,5) BUY
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1.470 1.435 2,4 (0,3) (5,2) (0,7) BUY
Wijaya Karya WIKA 1.470 1.440 2,1 2,1 2,8 (25,9) BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on Code 04-May-21 03-May-21 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Tower Bersama TBIG 2.570 2.700 (4,8) (5,5) 26,0 57,7 HOLD
Surya Citra Media SCMA 1.525 1.570 (2,9) 3,0 (11,6) (33,4) HOLD
Summarecon Agung SMRA 955 980 (2,6) (5,9) 5,5 18,6 BUY
Unilever UNVR 5.750 5.900 (2,5) (4,6) (11,2) (21,8) HOLD
Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 780 800 (2,5) (1,3) 4,0 (1,3) BUY
Charoen Pokphand CPIN 6.825 7.000 (2,5) (0,4) (3,9) 4,6 HOLD
Alam Sutera ASRI 190 194 (2,1) (4,5) (11,2) (21,5) HOLD
Chandra Asri Petrochemical TPIA 9.700 9.900 (2,0) (2,8) (11,8) 6,9 HOLD
Japfa Comfeed JPFA 2.030 2.070 (1,9) 7,4 (1,5) 38,6 HOLD
Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal IPCC 530 540 (1,9) (1,9) (7,8) - BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, May 05, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ Adhi Karya: The latest major project is doing well
▪ United Tractors: Komatsu 2021 sales target revised up ▪ Aneka Tambang: Better earnings from the gold and nickel division
▪ Surya Semesta Internusa: Positive turnaround from undeveloped land sales ▪ Surya Citra Media: Officially Back To Green
▪ Malindo Feedmill Indonesia: Higher revenues but lower margins
▪ Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Still Negative, More Waiting ▪ Sarana Menara Nusantara: Balancing efficiently repricing of towers, solid BUY
▪ Perusahaan Gas Negara: Despite all, PGN is buoyant for growth ▪ Telco: Misaligned strategies, no clear winner
▪ Adaro Energy: Signs of recovery in the coal prices
▪ Bukit Asam: Soft 1Q21 earnings ▪ Mayora Indah: Above estimates on strong top line
▪ Gudang Garam: Mediocre results ▪ Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate: with limited land Another quarter sales
▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: More landed handover, lower opex
▪ Kalbe Farma: Steady performance ▪ Telkom Indonesia: Solidifying core businesses, strong 4Q20 finish by data
▪ Dharma Satya Nusantara: Lukewarm Start To 2021 ▪ Japfa Comfeed Indonesia: Resilient feed margin amid higher input costs
▪ Triputra Agro Persada: Young and Tech-Savvy Planters ▪ Unilever Indonesia: The tepid top line hampered earnings
▪ HM Sampoerna: Lower earnings but better than expected
▪ Tower Bersama: Steady sequential growth ▪ Vale Indonesia: The allure remains undimmed
▪ Puradelta Lestari: Breaking three years of 1Q weak profits ▪ Poultry: Pressure on livebird price after Lebaran
▪ Bank Mandiri: Banking on digital growth
▪ XL Axiata: Solid 1Q21 earnings and set for revenue recovery ▪ AKR Corporindo: Beating estimates supported by land sales
▪ Bank Negara Indonesia: Starting to Recover ▪ Matahari Department Store: In a Better Position
▪ SIDO MUNCUL: 1Q21 earnings: Meeting expectations ▪ Telco: TLKM building advantages while waiting M&A
▪ Astra Agro Lestari: Solid Core Profit, Blemished by Forward
▪ Bank Central Asia: Limited Upside ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Benefitting from low policy rate environment
▪ BTPN Syariah: Decent results with further improvements expected ▪ Adhi Karya: Making good progress
▪ Astra International: Sign of quarterly improvement
▪ Kino Indonesia: Profits plummet in 2020 ▪ Mayora Indah: Risks stem from higher raw material prices
▪ United Tractors: Strong quarterly earnings, but below expectations ▪ Strategy: Managing Expectation
▪ HM Sampoerna: Risks remain
▪ United Tractors: Strong operational numbers in Mar 21 ▪ Mitra Adiperkasa: On Track to Profitability
▪ Alam Sutra Realty: Improving but still booking losses ▪ Ciputra Development: Strong revenue recognition amid COVID-19
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, May 05, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PT BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
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Stefanus Darmagiri
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[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3509 Retail, Media, Plantation
Thalia Kadharusman
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3124
Muhammad Naufal Yunas
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3507 Healthcare
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, May 05, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
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