weather risk in production agriculture

Weather Risk in Production Agriculture

May 19, 2021Eric Snodgrass

[email protected] @ag_weather

Nutrien Science FellowPrincipal Atmospheric Scientist

Nutrien Ag Solutions

mailto:[email protected]


3-Day

5-Day

7-Day10-Day


A brief discussion about the limits of predictability (what we are capable of doing…)Arctic Outbreak: February 2021

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Did Seasonal Forecasts from 2020 Find the Flash Drought Early?


Bow Echoes


Saturday Aug 15, 2020 Waiting on NDVI imagery to show change

~700 miles, Avg Speed 55 mph, 14 hours 500+ Severe Wind Reports, quarter to golfball sized hail


Bosart and Gausini 2016

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https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0256.1.xml


But we need this type of storm system…Majority of Summer rainfall comes from them. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/5/jcli-d-18-0559.1.xml

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/5/jcli-d-18-0559.1.xml


Week #2 ECMWF


June 2021 ECMWF “Weeklies”


Summer Drought Concerns


Best Yielding Years - 2017, 2016, 2009, 2005, 2004, 1994, 1992 (retrograding ridge)

What happens? • Jet stream Stays South • High Momentum in

Westerlies • Resists Blocking and

Stagnation


Worst Yielding Years - 2013, 2012,1995, 1991, 1988, 1983 (triple ridge)

What happens? • Jet stream Migrates

North • Westerlies Lose

Momentum during July and August

• Triple Ridge Block Develops


Is there a cycle to Cornbelt drought?


Are there pre-season indicators?

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.

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PACIFIC MERIDIONAL MODE (1980 - 2021)

34-60

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Iowa Corn Yield Anomaly

Series2


What do those cool ocean temps historically mean? (-PMM)


ENSO Forecast


June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (ECMWF)


June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (NMME)


June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (IRI - Columbia)


New Climate “Normals” 1991-2020


Primary Corn and Soybean Belt: 70 year Temperature and Precipitation Trends

Maximum Temperatures (-0.5°F) Minimum Temperatures (+2°F) Average Temperatures (+.9°F)


Observed Impacts of Temperature Change

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-length-growing-season US Climate Assessment

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-length-growing-season


Increased Precipitation VariabilityApril-October +5.5” of Total Rainfall


https://info.nutrien.com/snodgrass_weather

https://info.nutrien.com/snodgrass_weather

weather risk in production agriculture

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