water resources 101 arizona’s municipal: water future
TRANSCRIPT
Water Resources 101
Arizona’s Municipal:
Water Future
Water Resources 101
Arizona’s Municipal Water Future
Questions for the near and long-term:
Where will our water be used?
Where will it come from?
When will we run out?
Water Resources 101
Water Resource Planning Drivers
Water Planning in the Western States:•Growing population•Drought and climate change•Overuse of groundwater supplies•Endangered species concerns•River ecosystem protection•Over-appropriation•Competing Uses
Overview of Water Planning in Western StatesNew Mexico Office of the State EngineerFebruary 2009
Water Resources 101
Status and Trends
Arizona’s population will continue to grow – and spreadClimate change may impact supply reliabilityNear-TermExisting Supplies will become fully utilizedNew water transfer projects will be implementedLong-Term“Next bucket” will take decades to plan/implementWhat is out there? What steps are being taken? Planning + Investment = Reliability
Water Resources 101
Where’s the Demand?
“Red Dot” maps (source: Maricopa Association of
Governments)
2010 through 2040Population projections converted to demands for water
How does projected water demand compare to water availability?
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2010
Water Resources 101
Population Growth
Water Resources 101
Population & Municipal Demand Trends Total State population projected to grow
from 6 million to 12.8 million by 2050 Municipal water demand to increase by
110% - to a total of almost 3 MAFRegional Notes Pinal County projected to grow by 400% Water usage rates not necessarily intuitive:
highest per capita use in Yuma County at 250 GPCD
State-wide municipal water use still dominated by three-county CAP service area: 85% of total in 2050
Water Resources 101
Climate Change in the News
Do we need to know the cause to plan for
the effects?
Water Resources 101
Climate Change DriversRapidly growing population “in all the wrong
places” east, central and west coastal areas and desert.
Aging infra-structure that is stressed to provide either water supply or energy supply during periods of even moderate climate deviationUrban Heat Islands (UHI) associated with large population areas are a real “man-made” climate change impact.
Beyond Stationarity – Climate changes due to natural variability are far beyond 30-yr climate design assumptions.
Water Resources 101
Spaghetti Planning?IPCC 4 multi-model ensemble
Water Resources 101
Cone of Uncertainty
Climate modeling suggests natural variability explains little for future climate…
Natural Variability
Time
Climate Model Projections
Cone of Climate Uncertainty Waage, 2009
Water Resources 101
Changes ahead
Water Resources 101
Where’s the Surface Water?
Salt/Verde System & SRP
Water Resources 101
Where’s the Surface Water?
Colorado River & CAP
Water Resources 101
Where’s the Groundwater?
AMAs & Basins
Water Resources 101
GroundwaterAvailability
Extra: more water available after 200 yearsModerate: some water, but not a lotRisk: about to run outEmpty: overdraft will occur if not carefully managed
Water Resources 101
Groundwater Availability
Dark Red: Stressors are causing overdraft conditionsWhite: Projected stressors are not causing problems
Opportunities for inter-basin transfers & new pipelines?
Opportunities for shifting projected populations based upon water availability?
Water Resources 101
Water Resources 101
What About Reclaimed?Current• Landscape and golf course irrigation• Groundwater recharge • Wetlands, wildlife habitat, stream
augmentation• Industrial / power plant cooling processes• Surface irrigation of orchards and vineyards• Vehicle washing
Water Resources 101
Supply Augmentation and Demand Management
•Conservation•Water Harvesting•Gray water•System Efficiency
Balanced Water Supply
Groundwater
Surface Water
Reclaimed Water
HomesCommercial
Losses
Industry
Parks
New Supplies
Water Resources 101
So, What are Some of the Current Plans and Possibilities to Meet Demands?
Water Resources 101
Proposed GroundwaterTransfers
Red Gap RanchBig ChinoMcMullen, Butler, and HarquahalaBlack MesaBrackish Supplies
Red Gap Ranch
Big Chino
Black Mesa Pipeline
Wilcox Basin
McMullen, Butler, and Harquahala
Yuma Brackish
GW
Water Resources 101
Reclaimed Water Prospects
Effluent exchangesCAGRD purchasesIndian water settlementsGrowing reclaimed water service areas
Water Resources 101
Surface Water Concepts
C.C. Cragin in Payson (East Clear Creek Basin)Metro Water District, Marana, Oro Valley, and Flowing Wells Irrigation District (Allocated CAP)Green Valley, Sahuarita, and Surrounding Interests (Allocated and Unidentified CAP)Sierra Vista CAP Extension (Unidentified CAP)Lake Powell Pipeline in Northern Arizona (Unidentified Colorado River Water)
Colorado River/CAP are Fully Allocated
Water Resources 101
What’s Next?
•Allow/encourage water availability to influence where development occurs?•Conservation by design (increase the way infrastructure shapes water use)?•Changes to rules/regulations to increase Arizona’s flexibility to meet water demands?•Move water from where it is, to where it needs to be – large water transfer projectsWhat about the long-term?•Developing the “Next Bucket”
Water Resources 101
Augmenting the State’s Supplies:The “Next Bucket”(s)
Surface Water•ADD Water
Reclaimed Water•New uses•Indirect Potable Reuse
Seawater Desalination
………Salmon, Catfish, and Polar Bears?
What supplies areout there?
Water Resources 101
ADD Water
CAP created Project Acquisition, Development and Delivery (ADD) Water•Response to its 2006 Strategic Plan to:
• Establish a collaborative process• Encourage fair competition• Eliminate perceptions of unfair advantage
Determine when new supplies need to be acquired and what
entities get those supplies
Water Resources 101
Seawater Desalination
•Mexico, California, or both?•Technologies•Conceptual Study at Rocky Point
Water Resources 101
Grand Designs…
Salmon?
Importation from the Yukon and/or Columbia RiversCatfish?
The Mississippi River BasinPolar Bears?
What about towing icebergs (get them while they last!)
Water Resources 101
Arizona’s Municipal Water Future
Questions for the near and long-term:Where will our water be used?State-wide, but 85% in Maricopa, Pinal, and
PimaWhere will it come from?Groundwater, Surface Water, Recycling, and
Beyond
When will we run out?When we decide to stop planning and fail to invest in our water infrastructure
Answers