washington, 18 - 20 june, 20131 lessons from the southern african swfdp and mozambique nms by moises...

Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013 1

Lessons from the Southern AfricanSWFDP and Mozambique NMS

BYMoises Vicente Benessene

Chair of Meteorological Association for Southern Africa -MASA

Sustaining NMSs-Strengthening WMO Regional Global Centers


• SADC Background• Status of regional Met institutions• What is MASA?• MASA Achievements • Priority development needs of NMSs in SADC Region• Critical Factors For Successful Implementation• Resources requirements

• Lessons from the Southern African SWFDPin Mozambique

• Mozambique Vulnerability• Role of INAM• Lessons learned from the major floods in 2007 and

2013• Conclusions

OutlineOutline


• Weather and climate affects all economic sectors• SADC is among global regions affected by severe

impacts of climate variability and change• Hydro-Meteorological Disasters impacts likely to

increase in frequency and severity in SADC (IPCC-AR4)

• SADC Meteorological Master plan and MASA Strategy

addresses challenges of demand for timely and quality services :

• facilitating regional cooperation, • strengthening national capacities and • ensuring compliance with international

commitments

BackgroundBackground


SADC Climate Services Centre: Services are constrained due to:

– Insufficient personnel; and– Inadequate infrastructure (Office &Equipment).

Regional Instruments Calibration Centre : not fully operational due to:– Aged calibration tools; and– Inadequate trained personnel.

Regional Met Training Centres in Angola and RSA (new) : don’t meet demand largely due to:

– Inadequate trained personnel; and– Inadequate infrastructure ( office & equipment)

Status of Regional Met. InstitutionsStatus of Regional Met. Institutions


Members of MASA

Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Affiliation: WMO, SADC and UK MET OFFICE.

Meteorological Association of Southern Africa (MASA) - is an SADC Association concerned with regional cooperation in weather, climate and water. It was established in 2007 with a governing constitution.

Vision of MASA MASA was formed against the background of the important role which meteorology plays in socio-economic development of the SADC region, the protection of life and property and the sustainable management of the environment.

Objective

MASA was formed because of the important role which meteorology plays in socio-economic development in the SADC region, the protection of life and property and the sustainable management of the environment.

What is MASA?What is MASA?


• MASA Constitution;

• MASA Strategic Plan (2011 – 2015), aligned to WMO RA1 Strategy and SADC long- term plans;

• MASA Board Charter;

• WMO’s SWFDP and the SARFFGS;

• ISO Certification (sharing best practices);

• Capacity building workshops; and • Needs analysis in all SADC Countries.

MASA achievements MASA achievements


Priority order1. Observing Networks2. Data management3. Meteorologist training/NWP4. Instruments calibration5. Climate Modeling6. DPFS7. Telecoms8. Products generation9. Aviation Met10. Air quality

Priority development needs of NMSs in SADC RegionPriority development needs of NMSs in SADC Region


Success will depend, among others, on:

– Availability of resources both financial and human;

– Member States and SADC give the sector high priority in their respective plans;

– Development partners/stakeholders be supportive in

relevant projects/activities;

– NMSs and regional institutions fulfilling their respective mandates; and

– Collaboration of SADC, the WMO and the MASA is considered critical for the success.

Critical Factors For Successful ImplementationCritical Factors For Successful Implementation


No Strategic goal/interventions Amount required 2012 – 2027 US$

1 Strengthening of observational network 85,629,000

2 Improvement of Meteorological Telecommunications 4,230,000

3 Improvement of level of technical capacities (DPFS, DM , Training )

8,440,000

4 Improving the understanding of economic benefits and use of climate information and products

2,155,000

5 Strengthening institutional capacity of the NMSs 10,770,000

6 Enhancing capacity of regional units (CSC, MASA, and RMTCs, RICC)

8,970,000

7 TOTAL 120,194,000

The SP (2011-2015) the estimated Total Budget $ 65m US

Resources Requirements 2012 -2027 Resources Requirements 2012 -2027


• 2006 to 2007 - Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe (5 countries).

• 2008 to 2013 - Angola, Botswana, Comoros, DRC, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe (16 countries and 8 of them the LDCs).

• RSMC Pretoria

The benefits of the SWFDP project and its operational implementation to all Southern African countries are numerous: Increased visibility, credibility, and value of meteorological services.

Members of MASA agreed to take ownership of the SWFDP.

Southern African SWFDP Beneficiaries CountriesSouthern African SWFDP Beneficiaries Countries


• MASA made a modest contribution to co-fund the 2012 SWFDP-SA Capacity Building Workshop

• MASA will be exhibiting in the upcoming High Level Investors Conference to be held in Maputo, Mozambique (In attendance 3 African Heads of States and 28 Ministers)- Early Warnings Systems (SWFDP)

Southern African SWFDP Beneficiaries Countries (2)Southern African SWFDP Beneficiaries Countries (2)


Lessons from the Southern African SWFDP in Mozambique


Mozambique VulnerabilityMozambique Vulnerability

Mozambique is very vulnerable country because of it’s localization in tropic, downstream of the 9 bigger rivers and very long cost line.

Vulnerability of Mozambique is higher because more than 50% of the population lives below the poverty line. They don’t have coping capacity to overcome the impacts of natural disaster.

The base of our economy is agriculture (80% of population), which is very sensitive to floods, drought, tropical cyclones, fires, erosion, etc.

Mozambique


Impact of Recent Mozambique Major FloodsImpact of Recent Mozambique Major Floods 2000

At least 700 people died, 650,000 were displaced and 4.5 million were affected, totalling a quarter of Mozambique’s population. The economy was brought to a standstill.

2007 Major cities and infrastructure are threatened by floods

and had led to the displacement of tens of thousands of people.

2013 Heavy rains in January 2013 caused flooding in

Mozambique, destroying houses, schools, health centers and crops, forcing the affected populations to leave their homes in search of safer areas.

These floods have affected more than 230,000 people, displaced 180,000 and killed more than 110 people since the beginning of the rainy season in October 2012.


The Meteorological Services in Mozambique was established in 1908

The main role of INAM is to provide weather and climate services to prevents loss of life and reduces the economic and material impact of natural hydrometeorological disasters.

Before 2006:

Although the awareness of hazards and their impact gained more visibility after the 2000 floods, the NMS was challenged by:

• Lack of ability to forecast severe weather events;• Inadequate lead-time of warnings and alerts of severe

weather events;• Poor interaction between NMS, DMCPAs and Media,

before and during events;• Poor skill of the forecasters in the use of NWP products

from Global Centres and satellite derived products;

The Role of National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)The Role of National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)


The implementation of SWFDP, from 2006, allowed the NMS – Mozambique Improvement on the:• Ability to forecast severe weather events;• 5 day lead-time on warnings when needed;• Interaction with DMCPAs and Media;• Improved skills of the operational forecasters in the use of

NWP products from Global Centres (deterministic) through training provided by regional centres and sharing of experience among forecasters;

• Feedback on NWP, EPS, guidance• The public awareness increased after outreach activities

and public education through the media and exhibition.

Implementation of SWFDP in MozambiqueImplementation of SWFDP in Mozambique


We consider responsibility at local levels to communicate warnings received to those at risk in detail, and for facilitating community actions to prevent loss and damage.

The existence of an Early Warning System in place that includes:

Flood Warning System; Cyclone Warning System; and Strong co-ordination of government officials & civil defense. Local DRM committees with responsibility like:

• Warning and dissemination• Evacuation• Management of shelter area• Rescue• First aid and medical sanitation.

Mozambique’s Good PracticesMozambique’s Good Practices


• The model guidance correctly indicated landfall 5 days in advance where, and movement towards Zimbabwe

• Mozambique NMSs in coordination with INGC and DNA issued warnings 5 days in advance:

• 2007: – Provinces were put on alert levels, 2 to 3 days in advance– The public responded well and major loss of lives were

prevented – though 9 people died;• 2013:

– Public received early warnings by Local DRM committees, radio, TV, newspapers 5 days in advance

– BUT… the public did not react until the last time – more than 100 people died (attributed to slow reaction by Disaster Management)

Lessons learned from floods 2007 and 2013

Lessons learned from floods 2007 and 2013

Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013 1919Washington, 18-20 June 2013

The monitoring of severe weather events, the sufficient lead-time In the issuance of alerts and advice/alerts/warnings for heavy rainfall, strong winds and severe thunderstorm, boosted the visibility of the NMS and the all EWS.

Visibility of INAM after 2007Visibility of INAM after 2007


• Observing network and telecommunication system• Use of NWP products in graphical format (Visualization tool)• Reliable internet service• Training opportunity for all forecasters (roving and/or training

desk)• Nowcasting (e.g. severe thunderstorm), in order to avoid case

like last rainy season where 39 of 117 deaths were caused by lightning stroke

• Improvement of awareness campaign (drill excise) before rainy season

• Strengthen the interaction with media

• Continuous learning and capacity building by forecasters at national level;

• Verification of warnings and forecast

ChallengesChallenges


• SWFDP products are fully incorporated in the operationally forecasting processes;

• Since the introduction of the SWFDP, they have especially demonstrated to be one of the best and helpful tools used to predict severe weather events;

• The portal web based is an efficient way to delivery guidance and information of a SWFDP ;

• There is a need for continuous training and improvement on the use of Nowcasting system; and

• Enhancement of the exchange of information between neighbouring countries will improve the EWS.

Summary Summary


Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention


Priority order1. Observing Networks2. Data management3. Meteorologist training/NWP4. Instruments calibration5. Climate Modeling6. DPFS7. Telecoms8. Products generation9. Aviation Met10. Air quality

Priority development needs of NMSs in MozambiquePriority development needs of NMSs in Mozambique

washington, 18 - 20 june, 20131 lessons from the southern african swfdp and mozambique nms by moises...

Documents

vision of masa masa

sadc countries

frica masa

objective masa

sadc association

collaboration of sadc

members of masa angola

sadc climate services