war in yemen_ saudis enter the fray _ the economist

27/03/2015 WarinYemen:Saudisenterthefray|TheEconomist

http://www.economist.com/news/middleeastandafrica/21647280kingdomstartsbombingitssouthernneighboursaudisenterfray 1/3

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AliAbdullahSaleh

Aden

SaudiArabia

Sana'a

Yemen

Mar26th2015|DUBAI| MiddleEastandAfrica

WarinYemen

SaudisenterthefrayThekingdomstartsbombingitssouthernneighbour

SAUDIArabiawasonlygoingtotoleratetheadvanceoftheIranianbackedHouthirebelsinneighbouringYemenforsolong.EarlyonthemorningofMarch26ththekingdomsaidithadlaunchedamilitaryoperationtopushbacktheHouthisandreinstatethelegitimategovernmentofPresidentAbdRabboMansourHadi.

InitialairstrikeshittheShiarebelgroup'spositionsinSanaa,theYemenicapital,includingtheairportandthegroupspoliticalheadquarters.TheyalsotargetedmilitarybasescontrolledbyloyalistsofAliAbdullahSaleh,Yemensformerpresident.Hewasoustedin2011andsubsequentlyhasbeenbackingtheHouthisastheyhavetakenoverswathesofthedesperatelypoorcountryof24m.LaterreportssuggestedbasesofSalehloyalistmilitaryunitsintheotherareasofthecountryhadalsobeenstruck.

AdelalJubeir,theSaudiambassadortoAmerica,saysthestrikesareanopeningsalvoinacampaigninvolvingtencountriesmainlybelievedtobefellowGulfstates.TheWhiteHouseannouncedshortlyafterwardsthatAmericawouldprovidelogisticalandintelligencesupport.JordanandEgypthaveofferedtotakepart.

In2013theHouthisburstoutoftheirstrongholdinnorthernYemenandmovedsouthtoSanaa,eventuallyseizingitinSeptemberlastyear.LastmonthMrHadi,whoisbackedbybothAmericaandtheSaudis,fledHouthicaptivityinSanaaforAden,aportcitythatwasoncecapitalofanindependentSouthYemen.

BythetimetheHouthisadvancedonAdenthisweek,aftertakinganimportantmilitaryinstallation60kmnorthwestoftheport,MrHadiwasrumouredtohavefledtoRiyadh,theSaudicapital.HecalledformilitaryinterventionfromthesixmemberstatesoftheGulfCooperationCouncil.

SaudiArabiahasansweredhiscall.ButbyleadingamilitarycampaigntoreinstallMrHadiaspresident,RiyadhmaycatalyseYemenslongpredictedcollapseintowhatJamal

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Benomar,theUNenvoytoYemen,hasdescribedasanIraqLibyaSyriascenario.

TheHouthis,areligiousrevivalistgroupturnedmilitia,arebackedbyIran,aShiapower,withwhichSaudiArabia,aSunnibulwark,competesforregionalhegemony.TheHouthis,likemostofYemen'sShia,followtheZaydisectofIslam,asopposedtothe"Twelver"formofShiawhichpredominatesinIran.NonethelessaSunniledinterventionislikelytoincreasesectariandivisionswithinYemenwherethedistinctionsbetweenSunniandShiameantlittleuntilrecentlyandtoaggravatethemregionally.

MilitantSunnigroupshavealreadycarriedoutblatantlysectarianattacks.YemenishometoalQaedaintheArabianPeninsula(AQAP),alQaedasdeadliestbranch,andIslamicState(IS),whichclaimedresponsibilityforthesuicidebombingsoftwoZaydimosquesinSanaaonMarch20th,whichleftmorethan140peopledead.

TheairstrikeshavealreadylaidbarethedivisionscausedbytheHouthis'rise.InYemen'ssouthandinthecentralbelt,territorieshometomainlySunnipopulations,peoplearecheerleadingtheSaudiledcampaign.TheyarehopingitwillhaltprogressoftheHouthis,whohadlookedsettoenteroilrichMareb,incentralYemen,aswellasAden,untilthestrikeswerelaunched.TheantiHouthigroupsinterestisnotwhetherornotMrHadiamanwhocededcontrolofthecapitalwithoutafightsixmonthsagohaslegitimacyratherthattheHouthimenacebebroughttoheel.

Inthenorthofthecountrymanyaredismayedbytheforeignbombardment,includingsomeoftheHouthis'sternestcritics:theybelieveitwillonlyleadtomorefighting.SaudiArabiaisfuckingourcountry,saysaSunnitribesmanwhospentthenightcoweringwithhisfamilyinSanaaasblastsechoedthroughthecapital.ManyYemenisbelieveSaudiArabiawillhappilyreducetheircountrytodusttodefeattheirenemies.

FortheHouthis,theSaudiledoperationisapublicrelationscoup.TheyhavelongaccusedMrHadiofworkingfortheinterestsofforeignpowers.InavitriolicandparanoidspeechonMarch20ththeirleader,AbdelmalekalHouthi,accusedtheGulfArabstatesandAmericaofplottingtodestabilisethecountryinordertoreinstallMrHadiasapuppetleader.

MrHadihasstruggledtobuildaconstituencysincebeingmadeinterimpresidentin2012.WhatsupporthehasfoundsinceleavingSanaahasbeenbasedlargelyonhisoppositiontotheHouthis.FromAdenMrHadihadbeenintheprocessofforminga20,000strongSaudibackedmilitia.Whenhewent,thecountry's"legitimategovernment"leftwithhim.

TheSaudiscampaignmaynotbeeasy.TheHouthishaveevolvedintoahighlyeffectiveguerrillaforceafteradecadeofwaragainstMrSalehandSaudiArabia.WiththebackingofSalehloyaliststheyarelikelytoproveatoughenemy.

LasttimeSaudiArabiaintervenedagainsttheHouthisinYemen,itsufferedblowback.InresponsetoSaudiairstrikesagainsttherebelsinandaroundthenorthernregionofSaada,HouthifighterscrossedovertheSaudiborder,seizingdozensoftownsandvillages.(Ironically,thosestrikesweretosupporttheregimeofthenpresidentMrSaleh,whichwasstrugglinginitssixthcampaigninasmanyyearsagainsttheHouthis.)

TheHouthishaveonceagainthreatenedtotakethefightacrosstheborder.ThiswillbejustlikethesixthwarinSaadawhentheSaudislostSauditerritory,saysaHouthimaninSana'a,referringtothe2009offensive.ItisnotjustYementhatmaycometoregrettheSaudislatestforeignadventure.

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war in yemen_ saudis enter the fray _ the economist

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