wander jager
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Wander Jager. An updated conceptual framework for integrated modelling of human decision making: The Consumat II. Jacob van Ruisdael (1628/29–1682), Sailing Vessels in a Thunderstorm. Social Complex Systems. Ability to learn and adapt Communication is essential Forecast affects outcome. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Wander Jager
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An updated conceptual framework for integrated modelling of human decision
making: The Consumat II
2Jacob van Ruisdael (1628/29–1682), Sailing Vessels in a Thunderstorm
Social Complex Systems• Ability to learn and adapt• Communication is essential• Forecast affects outcome
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Sometimes turbulent periods, where prediction is difficult, but management critical
Social environmental problems
• Farming• Fisheries• Transportation• Waste• Energy use• Air quality
Simulation Models
• Can help in understanding the dynamics of social environmental systems
• May serve as a testbed for developing policy
• Behaviour often is the cause but also the solution of problems
• There is a need to include behaviour in environmental models that
- captures some essential behavioural processes - connects behaviour with policy tools
Social simulation
• The key challenges are
- Developing valid rules for agent behaviour based on sound theory
- Parameterise models on the basis of empirical data
- Validation using e.g. micro-level process data (life histories)
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Consumat model
Human Needs• Subsistence
• Social
• Personality8
Satisfaction of needsDiscount function:
NyOxt = Σ t..t=n f(t) * (UyOxt) In which: - NyOxt = Need satisfaction of need y (one of the three) for using opportunity Ox at the current time step t- t..t=n is the time frame considered- f(t) describes the decay function if decreased weighting of utility over time-UyOxt = Utility for need y of opportunity x at time t-Uncertainty about future outcomes
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Decision Making
• Repetition: consider only the behaviour that one is performing now.
• Imitation: consider all behavioral options performed by peers (strong links).
• Inquiring: consider all behaviour performed by all other agents (weak links).
• Optimising: consider all possible behavioural options available. Here also opportunities are considered that are not yet used by other agents.
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repetition optimising
imitation inquiring
Satisfaction (involvement)
Uncertainty
(much information)
high
high
low
lowIndividual strategies
Social strategies
Low cognitive Effort
High cognitive Effort
Decision Making
Communication in simulation models
• Communication is critical - With whom: social networks, in- and outgoing
influence similarity, expertise - How: observation, norms, information, various
channels - When: involvement, uncertainty, social relevant outcomes
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Networks are critical, and can be seen as emerging from interactions.
Influencing processes in networks (management) requires an understanding of these interactions, and hence the communication between people
Model implications
• Emergent and dynamic networks based on similarity
• Innovation theory is implicit: low importance social needs results in stronger tendency to try new behavioural options.
• Heterogeneity in needs importance is relevant in describing different types of personalities and/or cultures
• Simple set of rules that can be applied to many situations
Management
• In turbulent times classical prediction becomes risky, yet management is essential.
• Serious gaming: exploring managerial strategies.
• Flightsimulator: not predicting where you land (or crash) but learning how to navigate to a goal and foresee (early warning) and adapt to threats and chances
• Changing the attributes of behavioural options and communication strategies
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A future for policy gaming?A simulation model parametrisized on the basis of empiricaldata to represent a particular system, e.gSocial-ecological
Each player is assigned a role (stakeholder), and faces the challenge to reach his/her goal using available strategies
http://www.rug.nl/gcscs
Management of social complex systems
Adaptive policy may help in preventing problems!
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