vulnerability of pastoral systems to ceg kathleen a. galvin department of anthropology and natural...
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Vulnerability of Pastoral Systems to CEG
Kathleen A. GalvinDepartment of Anthropology and Natural Resource Ecology Lab
Colorado State UniversityOrganizational Meeting for GECAFS Vulnerability of Food Systems Research Network
Oxford, UK17-18 May 2006
Outline
Pastoral adaptation and vulnerability
Integrated modeling, linking PHEWS to Savanna
Scenario analysis of climate variability
Implications for the coupled human-environmentalsystems
New research: DRU
Ecosystem Services
• Focus of interest in resource use has switched from energy people get from the environment to the “services” the environment provides to people, including food (energy).
• What roles do ecosystem services have on the provisioning of key economic goods and in the services that sustain, regulate and support life on Earth
• Interest in the state and changes in ecosystem services for humans and the ecosystems.
Access to Ecosystem Services
An estimated 852 million people were undernourished in 2000–02, up 37 million from the period 1997–99
Per capita food production has declined in sub-Saharan Africa
Some 1.1 billion people still lack access to improved water supply, and more than 2.6 billion lack access to improved sanitation
Water scarcity affects roughly 1–2 billion people worldwide
Ecosystem services and poverty reduction
•Pattern of winners and losers has not been taken into account in management decisions
– Many changes in ecosystem management have involved the privatization of what were formerly common pool resources often harming individuals who depended on those resources
– Some of the people affected by changes in ecosystem services are highly vulnerable
– The reliance of the rural poor on ecosystem services is rarely measured and thus typically overlooked in national statistics and poverty assessments
• Critical concern: Dryland systems– Development prospects in dryland regions of developing
countries are particularly closely linked to the condition of ecosystem services
– People living in drylands tend to have the lowest levels of human well-being, including the lowest per capita GDP and the highest infant mortality rates
– Drylands have only 8% of the world’s renewable water supply
Ecosystem services and poverty reduction
Adaptation
• Adjustments in social and economic systems made in response to climate effects– Movement– Species-specific herds– Diversifying economic strategies– Emigration
Constraints to Adaptation
• Land tenure and land use changes and other
forms of fragmentation
• Declining livestock populations
• Human population increases
Vulnerability
• Characteristics of individuals or groups in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of environmental change
Measures of Vulnerability
• A combination of poverty indicators with a measurement of the diversity of resources
• Sensitivity indicators of socio-economic variability– Food sensitivity– Ecosystems sensitivity– Settlements/infrastructure sensitivity– Human population health sensitivity
Integrated AssessmentA methodology which can be used to understand the interaction and effects of policy, climate, and development on pastoral populations
•Spatial-dynamic computer modeling, geographic information systems, remote sensing, climate forecasts and field studies are used to understand the effects of rainfall on vegetation, cattle and human welfare for pastoralists in Africa
Integrated Assessment
• PHEWS (Pastoral Household and Economic Welfare Simulator): tracks the flow of cash and dietary energy following a simple set of rules.
• Linked to Savanna: objectives are to model landscapes or regions; ecological processes, livestock and wildlife; competition (plants, animals
• Investigate scenarios of changes that may impact pastoralists and their ecosystems
Drought scenarios
• To pick out low rainfall that were possible in NCA– Took rainfall records for 55 sites and sorted in
ascending order and then took the 1st percentile of this distribution.
– This was 250 mm which is mean rainfall minus 2SD
– 1978 was a 1yr drought; 1978-79 was the 2yr drought
Summary output over 15 years for the three household types for the control run and the two drought scenarios
Poor Medium Rich
CONTROL RUN
Total own grain consumed (% in diet)
16.2 12.5 17.1
Total gifts/supplements (% in diet)
13.4 8.4 0.0
Own food available (%) 41.1 44.5 57.6
Average TLUs per Adult Equivalent
1.07 1.65 4.40
Poor Medium Rich
ONE-YEAR DROUGHT
Total own grain consumed (% in diet)
14.7 11.3 15.5
Total gifts/supplements (% in diet)
14.2 9.0 0.0
Own food available (%) 39.5 43.2 56.2
Average TLUs per Adult Equivalent
1.06 1.63 4.36
Poor Medium Rich
TWO-YEAR DROUGHT
Total own grain consumed (% in diet)
13.3 10.3 14.1
Total gifts/supplements (% in diet)
14.9 9.5 0.1
Own food available (%) 37.9 41.8 54.9
Average TLUs per Adult Equivalent
1.05 1.62 4.32
Is the system resilient?
• 2 yrs of drought had a small impact on calories available to the household
• Livestock populations are thought to be under some long-term carrying capacity due to disease
• Resilience may be an effect of Savanna overly simulating regrowth of vegetation.
Resilience and Vulnerability
• NCA system seems to be resilient to drought and it seems that the Maasai are not very vulnerable to climate variability
• First, a perturbation to a system rarely acts alone
• Second, the impact of perturbation is based on initial conditions
Vulnerability
• For the droughts there is no home-grown maize
• % of needed food in some months in poor households goes up to 70-80% of all calories
• The current Maasai economic situation in the NCA is precarious and food insecurity is prevalent even without drought
•Biophysically the system does seems tobe resilient over thelong run.• Human food security over the short-term is terrible.• To assess vulnerabilitywe need to understandthe complex interactionsamong climate, ecological,demographic, political and economic systems.
DRU. Decision-making in Rangeland systems: an integrated Ecosystem-Agent-based
Modeling Approach to Resilience and change (DREAMAR)
Infrastructure
Household Decision-making
Political Economy, Institutions
Change Scenarios
Climate and other Environmental Influences
Land Use
Economy
Land Tenure
Ecosystem services
Cooperation/Enabling Mechanisms
Demography
Mitigation
Adaptation Strategies (long-term)
Coping Tactics (short-term)
T1 Household goals, Initial conditions
Resilience / V
ulnerability
6
5
1
4
2
3
Great Plains and Northern Great Plains, USA 1=land tenure
2=infrastructure
3=cooperation/ enabling mechanisms
4=demography
5=economy
6=ecology
Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania
6
5
1
4
2
3
NW Province, South Africa (communal)
6
5
1
4
2
3
NW Province, South Africa (commercial)
6
5
1
4
2
3
Jinst Sum and Bayan Ovoo Sum, Mongolia
6
5
1
4
2
3
Kajiado, Kenya
6
5
1
4
2
3
Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania
6
5
1
4
2
3
1=land tenure
2=infrastructure
3=cooperation/ enabling mechanisms
4=demography
5=economy
6=ecology
SAVANNA DAYCENT
Cell attributes• plant mass• nutrients• livestock• crops
Agent
Information Actions
Model of itself: attributes, decisions, ...
Model of world: natural world,other agents, livestock, ...
Other agents Interactions
Direct: conflicts, trade, gifts, information, ...
Indirect: markets, externalities, ...
Updateattributes
www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/dru
Household m
Household n
Quality of grazingLocationRelative success
ConflictsSocial statusRelatednessGifts made
Relative wealthLivestockMoney
SAVANNA / DAYCENTEcosystem Models
Distributions of livestock by speciesconsidering forage quality, quantity, distance to water, etc.,plus restrictions on use due to land tenure and status
Distribution of crops
Habitat suitability for livestock, by species Suitability of lands for cultivationSuitability for other types of diversificationOther attributes reflecting ecosystem services (water quantity,
quality for cultivation, soil quality)
DECUMAAgent-Based
Household Model
The basic dietary energy flow in PHEWS
Milk energy
Own maize available
Dead, edible animals
Probabilistic slaughter
Sugar and tea energy
If household energy needs aremet, stop
If not, can the household purchasethe balance and maize?
If yes, purchase the balance and stop
If not, buy what the household can afford
The balance is made up of ‘relief’
Household herds
Household cash box
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F i g u r e 1 . C o n d i t i o n i n d e x f o r c a t t l e , s h e e p a n d g o a t s f o r t h e f i r s t 1 1 y e a r s o ft h e r u n : o n e - y e a r d r o u g h t ( t o p ) , t w o - y e a r d r o u g h t ( b o t t o m )
Figure 2. Average monthly percentage of dietary calories from relief in poorhouseholds over 15 years for three scenarios
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988
Year
Av M
on
thly
% R
eli
ef
in D
iet
Control run
1-year drought
2-year drought
Create Ecology
Shepard (Agent)Parent
Alive
Children
Tribe
Rank
ComType (Communication)
Resources
Crit (Critical Thinking)
Rancher (Model)Sim
Shepards (How Many)
Ecology
Stats
Stats (Object)
StatisticsShepard’s Alive
Cattle pre-Shepard
Histogram
Ecology (Object)Climate
Resource Production
Sim (Object)Map Size
Boundaries
Resources Usage
Shepard location
Cycles
Create Map
Create Shepard
Create Stats
Get Shepard
Update Ecology
Process Turn
Update Shepard
RepeatForEachCycle
Get Shepard
Process Stats
Create Livestock
Shepard (Agent)Parent
Alive
Children
Tribe
Rank
ComType (Communication)
Resources
Crit (Critical Thinking)
Resources (Object)
Livestock
Cash
Livestock (Object)
Species
Population
Location
Create Resources
Species (Object)Type
Intake
Birthing
Population (Object)
Number
Male
Female
Age
Create Livestock
Create Population
Get Resources
Get Livestock
Get Species
Get Population
Return Population
Return Species
Return Livestock
Return Resources