vulnerability and adaptation assessment hands-on training workshop integration of v&a analysis
TRANSCRIPT
Outline
Integration of results General points Cross sector and multisector integration Setting priorities
Vulnerability Adaptation
Why is Integration Important?
Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect
another Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly Others just indirectly Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the affect
of climate change in another sector In addition, integration is necessary for ranking
vulnerabilities and adaptations
Main Types of Integration of Results
Cross-sector integration Link related sectors
Multisector Economy or system wide
Integrated assessment models Economic models
Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect
In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate changeIn one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture
Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
CLIMATEPrecip.,Temp.,
Solar Rad.
WEAPEvaluationPlanning
CROPWATRegionalirrigation
CERESCrop water
demand
WATBALStreamflow
PET
SCENARIOSGCM
SCENARIOSPopulation, Development,
Technology
Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
Indicator 1990 2060-Opt 2060-PesPopulation 54156 122% 122%GDP Ag 1143 96% 135%GDP non-Ag 4878 617% 224%Food price index 1.16 6.90% -3.40%
(1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990)
Regional/National Economic Models
Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with nonmarket impacts
Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models
Require much data Can be expensive Can be complex Communication of assumptions can be a
challenge
A More “Simple” Approach
Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple
end points Impacts may be measured with different
metrics Need to account for many sectors Does not capture sectoral interactions
Estimates of Damages for India
Sector Damages ($ billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry +0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -$1.2
Coastal Resources -0.1
Can Also Measure Number of People Affected
“Millions at Risk” study did this Global burden of disease
At a Minimum
Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts
If crops can be examined, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production
Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
It can be quite useful for Focusing adaptation measures Monitoring Adaptation
Process is as Important as Outcome
This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise
Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities
Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT
Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
System/Region/Hazard
Social impacts
Economic impacts
Environmental impacts
Political impacts
Ranking
A
B
C
OECD Method
Table 5.5. Nepal ranking
Resource/ranking Certainty of
impact Timing of
impact Severity of
impact Importance of
resource
Water resources (flooding) High High High High Agriculture Medium-low Medium-low Medium High Human health Low Medium ? High Biodiversity Low ? ? Medium-high
Multicriteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan
Objective #1:
Food Security
Objective #2:
Exports
Objective #3:
Maximize Production
Objective #4: Sustainable
Agricult.
Objective #5:
Protect Env.
Objective #6:
Prevent Desertifi-
cation
Objective #7: Genetic
Diversity
Objective #8:
Employment
Measures Scenario: 5 2 3 5 2 3 1 4 Score
Current Current 4.00 0.70 1.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 4.50 4 74.9
Policy GFDL 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 1 32.5
+3; 0% 1.5 0.7 0.5 1.5 3 3 3 2 43.9
+2; +20% 3.5 1 1 2.5 4 4 4 3.5 73
Pest Current 5 2 3 3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 96
Forecast GFDL 2 1.5 0.7 1.5 2 3.3 3 1.1 43.9
+3; 0% 2.5 1.5 0.7 2 3 3.3 3 2.1 54.9
+2; +20% 4.5 2 1.5 3.5 4 4.3 4 3.6 87.8
Regional Current 5 1.5 2 2.5 4 4 5 4 87.5
Centers GFDL 1.00 1.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 5 1 35.5
+3; 0% 1.5 1 0.5 1.5 3 3 5 2 46.5
+2; +20% 3.5 1.5 1 2.5 4 4 5 3.5 75
Rules for Current 5 3 3.5 3 4 4 4.5 4 97
Free GFDL 1.3 1.1 0.8 2.5 2.5 3.5 3 1.3 47.3
Market +3; 0% 2 1.1 1 3 3.5 3.5 3 2.3 59.9
+2; +20% 4.5 1.7 2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 3.9 96.5
Reduce Current 5 3 5 5 5 5 4.5 4 116.5
Soil GFDL 2.5 1.5 1.5 3 4 3.5 3 1.2 61.3
Erosion +3; 0% 3.2 1.5 1.5 3.5 4.5 3.7 3 2.2 72.9
+2; +20% 4.3 2 2.2 4.5 5 5 4 3.8 98.8
Ranking Based on Scenario
Culture of Water Capture Runoff Use Different Building MaterialsCurrent Climate 1 2 3
Hotter and Drier 2 3 1
Hotter and Wetter 1 2 3
Benefit-Cost Analysis
Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs
Monetary values often used Difficulty: what to do about nonmarket
benefits or uncertainties Difficulty: requires much data and analysis