vlgc outlook for 2016 - avance gas · 13 storebrand life & health insurance 1.99 14 gjensidige...
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January 15th, 2016VLGC outlook for 2016
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Avance Gas has been included in the OBX Index, consisting of the 25 most traded shares on Oslo BørsOBX Index constituents H1 2016
Shareholder composition
No Name Industry Weight %1 Statoil Integrated Oil & Gas 17.972 Telenor Integrated Telecommunication Services 14.483 DNB Diversified Banks 13.954 Norsk Hydro Aluminum 5.755 Yara International Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 9.316 Seadrill Oil & Gas Drilling 0.927 Marine Harvest Packaged Foods & Meats 5.038 Subsea 7 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 2.279 Norwegian Air Shuttle Airlines 1.1210 Orkla Packaged Foods & Meats 7.4411 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Comp Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 2.0912 Schibsted ser. A Publishing 3.1313 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.9914 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.6315 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 1.0616 DNO Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 0.6217 REC Silicon Semiconductor Equipment 0.4418 Opera Software Internet Software & Services 0.9119 Frontline Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 0.2420 Schibsted ser. B Publishing 3.4421 Nordic Semiconductor Semiconductors 0.9222 Bakkafrost Packaged Foods & Meats 1.4523 Avance Gas Holding Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 0.3924 Det norske oljeselskap Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 0.7625 BW LPG Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 0.70
Daily liquidity vs peers, last twelve months (USDm)
7.0% 7.0%
6.8%
79.1%
Stolt-Nielsen Gas Limited
Sungas Holdings Ltd
Hemen Holding Limited
Free float
4.5 4.3
2.6
0.9
Avance Gas BW LPG Dorian LPG Aurora LPG
AvanceBuilt: 2003Capacity (cbm): 82,557Yard: Kawasaki (JPN)
Iris GloryBuilt: 2008Capacity (cbm): 83,783Yard: Daewoo (KOR)
Thetis GloryBuilt: 2008Capacity (cbm): 83,783Yard: Daewoo (KOR)
Venus GloryBuilt: 2008Capacity (cbm): 83,765Yard: Daewoo (KOR)
ProvidenceBuilt: 2008Capacity (cbm): 84,597Yard: Daewoo (KOR)
PromiseBuilt: 2009Capacity (cbm): 84,597Yard: Daewoo (KOR)
MistralBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)
MonsoonBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)
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BreezeBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)
PassatBuilt 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)
SiroccoBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)
LevantBuilt 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)
ChinookBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)
PamperoBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)
Fleet Overview
• Banking group with leading global shipping banks
• Further capacity for growth • Average debt to fleet value ~54%• Average ~14.8 year repayment profiles• Includes $50 million revolving credit capacity
Strong bank support gives attractive Cash Break Even
Cash Break Even breakdown
• Average OPEX improving as fleet is fully delivered
• Attractive credit margins and debt repayment profiles
• Fully delivered fleet reducing administrative costs per ship day
• Focus on further reducing cash break even
36%
7%17%
38%
3%OPEX
A&G
Interest payments
Installments
Dry dock
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Low “all-inclusive” Cash Break Even ~22 500/day Attractive financing structure
Syndicate of leading global shipping banks
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Middle East exports
• US$ 270/ton on HFO equals US$ 10 800/day
• US$ 1 000/day equals US$ 1/day
US Gulf exports via Cape
• US$ 10/ton on HFO equals US$ 425/day
• US$ 1/ton on freight equals US$ 470/day
• US$ 1 000/day equals US$ 2.15/day
US Gulf exports via Panama
• US$ 10/ton on HFO equals US$ 390/day
• US$ 1/ton on freight equals US$ 640/day
• US$ 1 000/day equals US$ 1.55/day
9Source: Waterborne
10Source: Waterborne
11Source: Waterborne
12Source: Waterborne
US Gulf VLGC Exports by end November 2015
13Source: Waterborne
14Source: Waterborne
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Avance Gas Spot VLGC Index Avance Gas Spot VLGC Index 2015
Source: Company Estimates
# of ships to move 1m tons annually
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42%
VLGC Market – 2016 and 2017
• Strong freight markets expected with higher upside than downside
• Cash break-even ~US$ 22 500 /day
• Middle East exports stable
• US Gulf exports growing
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