vlgc outlook for 2016 - avance gas · 13 storebrand life & health insurance 1.99 14 gjensidige...

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January 15th, 2016 VLGC outlook for 2016

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Page 1: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

January 15th, 2016VLGC outlook for 2016

Page 2: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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Avance Gas has been included in the OBX Index, consisting of the 25 most traded shares on Oslo BørsOBX Index constituents H1 2016

Shareholder composition

No Name Industry Weight %1 Statoil Integrated Oil & Gas 17.972 Telenor Integrated Telecommunication Services 14.483 DNB Diversified Banks 13.954 Norsk Hydro Aluminum 5.755 Yara International Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 9.316 Seadrill Oil & Gas Drilling 0.927 Marine Harvest Packaged Foods & Meats 5.038 Subsea 7 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 2.279 Norwegian Air Shuttle Airlines 1.1210 Orkla Packaged Foods & Meats 7.4411 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Comp Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 2.0912 Schibsted ser. A Publishing 3.1313 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.9914 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.6315 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 1.0616 DNO Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 0.6217 REC Silicon Semiconductor Equipment 0.4418 Opera Software Internet Software & Services 0.9119 Frontline Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 0.2420 Schibsted ser. B Publishing 3.4421 Nordic Semiconductor Semiconductors 0.9222 Bakkafrost Packaged Foods & Meats 1.4523 Avance Gas Holding Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 0.3924 Det norske oljeselskap Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 0.7625 BW LPG Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 0.70

Daily liquidity vs peers, last twelve months (USDm)

7.0% 7.0%

6.8%

79.1%

Stolt-Nielsen Gas Limited

Sungas Holdings Ltd

Hemen Holding Limited

Free float

4.5 4.3

2.6

0.9

Avance Gas BW LPG Dorian LPG Aurora LPG

Page 3: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

AvanceBuilt: 2003Capacity (cbm): 82,557Yard: Kawasaki (JPN)

Iris GloryBuilt: 2008Capacity (cbm): 83,783Yard: Daewoo (KOR)

Thetis GloryBuilt: 2008Capacity (cbm): 83,783Yard: Daewoo (KOR)

Venus GloryBuilt: 2008Capacity (cbm): 83,765Yard: Daewoo (KOR)

ProvidenceBuilt: 2008Capacity (cbm): 84,597Yard: Daewoo (KOR)

PromiseBuilt: 2009Capacity (cbm): 84,597Yard: Daewoo (KOR)

MistralBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)

MonsoonBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)

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BreezeBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)

PassatBuilt 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)

SiroccoBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)

LevantBuilt 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)

ChinookBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)

PamperoBuilt: 2015Capacity (cbm): 83,000Yard: Jiangnan (PRC)

Fleet Overview

Page 4: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

• Banking group with leading global shipping banks

• Further capacity for growth • Average debt to fleet value ~54%• Average ~14.8 year repayment profiles• Includes $50 million revolving credit capacity

Strong bank support gives attractive Cash Break Even

Cash Break Even breakdown

• Average OPEX improving as fleet is fully delivered

• Attractive credit margins and debt repayment profiles

• Fully delivered fleet reducing administrative costs per ship day

• Focus on further reducing cash break even

36%

7%17%

38%

3%OPEX

A&G

Interest payments

Installments

Dry dock

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Low “all-inclusive” Cash Break Even ~22 500/day Attractive financing structure

Syndicate of leading global shipping banks

Page 5: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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Page 6: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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Page 7: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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Page 8: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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Middle East exports

• US$ 270/ton on HFO equals US$ 10 800/day

• US$ 1 000/day equals US$ 1/day

US Gulf exports via Cape

• US$ 10/ton on HFO equals US$ 425/day

• US$ 1/ton on freight equals US$ 470/day

• US$ 1 000/day equals US$ 2.15/day

US Gulf exports via Panama

• US$ 10/ton on HFO equals US$ 390/day

• US$ 1/ton on freight equals US$ 640/day

• US$ 1 000/day equals US$ 1.55/day

Page 9: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

9Source: Waterborne

Page 10: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

10Source: Waterborne

Page 11: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

11Source: Waterborne

Page 12: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

12Source: Waterborne

Page 13: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

US Gulf VLGC Exports by end November 2015

13Source: Waterborne

Page 14: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

14Source: Waterborne

Page 15: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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Page 16: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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Page 17: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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Avance Gas Spot VLGC Index Avance Gas Spot VLGC Index 2015

Page 18: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

Source: Company Estimates

# of ships to move 1m tons annually

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Page 19: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

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42%

Page 20: VLGC outlook for 2016 - Avance Gas · 13 Storebrand Life & Health Insurance 1.99 14 Gjensidige Forsikring Multi-line Insurance 3.63 15 Petroleum Geo-Services Oil & Gas Equipment &

VLGC Market – 2016 and 2017

• Strong freight markets expected with higher upside than downside

• Cash break-even ~US$ 22 500 /day

• Middle East exports stable

• US Gulf exports growing

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