vision 2050 summary final

8/7/2019 Vision 2050 Summary Final

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Vision 2050: The new agenda or business – in brie

This is a brief synthesis of the full

Vision 2050: The New Agenda or

Business report. It provides a quick

overview of the Vision 2050 findings

while the longer report provides more

detailed information on the actions

needed to get to our vision for 2050

and the oppor tunities this presents

for business. This brief report follows

the content structure of the longer

report, starting with a Message

from the co-chairs and an Executive

summary followed by the Business-as-

usual Outlook, the Vision, Pathway,

Opportunities and Conclusion.

Under the Vision 2050 project o

the World Business Council or

Sustainable Development (WBCSD),

29 WBCSD member companies

developed a vision o a world wellon the way to sustainability by

2050, and a pathway leading to

that world – a pathway that will

require undamental changes in

governance structures, economic

rameworks, business and human

behavior. It emerged that these

changes are necessary, easible

and oer tremendous business

opportunities or companies that

turn sustainability into strategy.

The Vision 2050 project addresses

three questions: What does a

sustainable world look like? How

can we realize it? What are the roles

business can play in ensuring more

rapid progress toward that world?

Vision 2050 is the result o a

collaborative eort. The projectwas governed by our co-chair

companies, and the content

developed by 29 companies

through working with each other,

with hundreds o representatives

rom business, government

and civil society, with regional

partners and with experts. It

also builds on WBCSD reports

and work done by others. This

brie report is complemented by

murals, presentation decks and

a toolkit. The Vision 2050 work

provides a basis or interaction

with other enterprises, civil society

and governments about how a

sustainable uture can be realized.

We hope to challenge companies

to rethink their products, services

and strategies, envisioning new

opportunities that put sustainability

at the center, to communicate with

and motivate employees and their boards, and to develop leadership

positions in the wider world. We

invite governments to consider the

policies and regulations needed to

guide and organize society and give

markets incentives to move toward

sustainability, and people to make a

dierence in their daily lives.

A platorm or dialogue – not a

blueprint

Vision 2050 does not oer a

prescriptive plan or blueprint but

provides a platorm or dialogue, or

asking questions. Its highest value

may be in our narrative o the gap

between Vision 2050 and a business-

as-usual world, and the queries and

dilemmas it raises.

For business and others, the biggestunanswered questions are “How

do we get there?” “What orm o

governance will make the changes

needed happen at the speed and

scale required?”

On these issues, we indicate our

willingness, support and leadership,

and invite all stakeholders – business,

government and civil society – to

join the exploration and eort.

Project co-chairs

Samuel A. DiPiazza Jr.,

PricewaterhouseCoopers

Idar Kreutzer, Storebrand

Michael Mack, Syngenta

International

Mohammad A. Zaidi, Alcoa

Project member companies

Accenture, Alcoa, Allianz, ArcelorMittal,

The Boeing Company, Duke EnergyCorporation, E.ON, Eskom, Evonik

Industries, FALCK Group, Fortum

Corporation, GDF SUEZ, GrupoNueva,

Holcim, Inosys Technologies, Osaka

Gas Co., PricewaterhouseCoopers,

The Procter & Gamble Company, Rio

Tinto, Royal Philips Electronics, Sony

Corporation, Storebrand, Syngenta

International, The Tokyo Electric Power

Company, Toyota Motor Corporation,

Umicore, Vattenall, Volkswagen,

Weyerhaeuser Company

Core project team

Per Sandberg, Project Director

([email protected])

Nijma Khan, Project Manager

(seconded rom Accenture)

Li Li Leong, Project Manager

(seconded rom

PricewaterhouseCoopers)

About Vision 2050



Vision 2050: The new agenda or business – in brie 1

Many o the 29 WBCSD member

companies that have laid out this

vision have been operating or more

than a century and have seen the

uture come and go, many times.

As business leaders, we are used to

planning or the uture and making

assumptions about what it will be like.

But never beore has the uture held

as many questions, and with such

serious consequences depending on

the answers. And never beore has

the shape o the uture depended

so much on what we – business,

government, citizens – do today.

The Vision 2050 project has been

a collaborative eort among the

29 companies, supported by the

WBCSD secretariat, the wider business community and regional

network partners around the

world, in mapping out not what

we think will be, nor what we ear

will be, but what could be. Given

the megatrends o climate change,

global population growth and

urbanization, and given the best

eorts o business, governments

and society, Vision 2050 is a picture

o the best possible outcome or the

human population and the planet it

lives on over the next our decades.

In a nutshell, that outcome would be

a planet o around 9 billion people,

all living well – with enough ood,

clean water, sanitation, shelter,

mobility, education and health to

make or wellness – within the limits

o what this small, ragile planet can

supply and renew, every day.

This vision is supported by a

pathway, nine key areas o action,

and “must haves” that will need to

be navigated to achieve it.

The best news is that we ound thepathway and its elements marked

by massive opportunities: to do

more with less, to create value,

to prosper, and to advance the

human condition. For us, these are

a key takeaway, because, at the

undamental level, opportunity

is what makes business grow

and prosper. And many o these

opportunities will be in emerging

markets.

An equally rm nding is that

business-as-usual cannot get us to

sustainability or secure economic

and social prosperity; these can

be achieved only through radical

change, starting now. To play its role,

business will still need to do what

business does best: innovate, adapt,

collaborate and execute. These

activities will change along with the

partnerships that we orm with other

businesses, governments, academia

and non-governmental organizations

in order to get it right or all. And we

must get it right.

We would like to thank our colleaguesin the member companies who

worked so hard and skillully

in producing this report, and

to thank the members o the

WBCSD secretariat and the many

consultants, experts and regional

contributors who supported and

advised us.

Message rom the co-chairs

Samuel A. DiPiazza Idar Kreutzer

CEO, PricewaterhouseCoopers Group CEO, Storebrand

(Retired)

Michael Mack Dr. Mohammad A. Zaidi

CEO, Syngenta EVP and CTO, Alcoa




In 2050, around 9 billionpeople live well, and withinthe limits of the planet

Just 40 years rom now, some 30%

more people will be living on this

planet. For business, the good

news is that this growth will deliver

billions o new consumers who

want homes and cars and televisionsets. The bad news is that shrinking

resources and potentially changing

climates will limit the ability o all

9 billion o us to attain or maintain

the consumptive liestyle that is

commensurate with wealth in

today’s afuent markets.

In the WBCSD’s Vision 2050 project,

29 global companies representing

14 industries tackled this dilemma.

They developed a vision, based

on dialogues in 20 countries with

several hundred companies as well

as experts, o a world on-track

toward sustainability by 2050. This

will be a world in which the global

population is not just living on the

planet, but living well and within the

limits o the planet. By “living well”,

we are describing a standard o

living where people have access to

and the ability to aord education,

healthcare, mobility, the basics o

ood, water, energy and shelter,

and consumer goods. By “living

within the limits o the planet”,

we mean living in such a way

that this standard o living can be

sustained with the available natural

resources and without urther harm

to biodiversity, climate and other ecosystems.

At rst this Vision may read like a

utopian ideal, considering how ar it

seems to be rom the world o today.

But that is neither the intention o

this report, nor the reality. With or

without Vision 2050, lie in 2050

will be radically dierent or all o

us. Vision 2050 is the best available

star to steer by today, based on

the observations, projections and

expectations o the companies and

experts who contributed to this

eort. This guiding star is an attempt

to help leaders across governments,

businesses and civil society avoid

repeating mistakes o the past –

making decisions in isolation that

result in unintended consequences

or people, the environment and

planet Earth. Vision 2050 seeks to

provide a common understanding soleaders can make the decisions that

deliver the best outcomes possible or

human development over the next

our decades. It is also a platorm

or ongoing dialogue, so we can

continue to raise the important

questions we must answer in order

to make progress in this uncharted

territory.

Attaining the Vision:

The pathway

A pathway was developed and nine

elements o this pathway detailed

to connect this sustainable uture

with the present. The goal was to

see what a real, global attempt at

sustainable development – with

all the radical policy and liestyle

changes this would entail – would

mean or business and marketsin general and or the individual

participating sectors. The elements

o the pathway demonstrate

that behavior change and social

innovation are as crucial as better

solutions and technological

innovation. All types o ingenuity will

be needed over the next 40 years.

Although distinct, the elements

also show the interconnectedness

o issues such as water, ood and

energy – relationships that must

be considered in an integrated and

holistic way, with tradeos that must

be understood and addressed.

The critical pathway includes:

Addressing the development•

needs o billions o people,

enabling education and economic

empowerment, particularly o

women, and developing radically

more eco-ecient solutions,liestyles and behavior

Incorporating the cost o •

externalities, starting with carbon,

ecosystem services and water

Doubling o agricultural output•

without increasing the amount o

land or water used

Halting deorestation and•

increasing yields rom planted

orests

Halving carbon emissions•

worldwide (based on 2005 levels)

by 2050, with greenhouse gas

emissions peaking around 2020

through a shit to low-carbon

energy systems and highly

improved demand-side energy

eciency

Providing universal access to low-•

carbon mobility

Delivering a our-to-tenold•

improvement in the use o

resources and materials.

Executive summary




E xec ut i ve s um

mar y

Making these changes – and more –

will enable us to consume just over

one planet’s worth o ecological

resources in 2050, as opposed to the

2.3 planets we will be using i we

continue on the business-as-usual

path we are on today.

Vast opportunities

The transormation ahead represents

vast opportunities in a broad range

o business segments as the global

challenges o growth, urbanization,

scarcity and environmental change

become the key strategic drivers

or business in the coming decade.

In natural resources, health and

education alone, the broad order o

magnitude o some o these could

be around US$ 0.5-1.5 trillion per

annum in 2020, rising to betweenUS$ 3-10 trillion per annum in 2050

at today’s prices, which is around

1.5-4.5% o world GDP in 2050.

Opportunities range rom

developing and maintaining low-

carbon, zero-waste cities, mobility

and inrastructure to improving and

managing biocapacity, ecosystems,

liestyles and livelihoods.

Enabling these changes will also

create opportunities or nance,

inormation/communication

technology and partnerships. There

will be new opportunities to be

realized, dierent external priorities

and partners to be engaged and

a myriad o risks to navigate and

adapt to. Smarter systems, smarter

people, smarter designs and smarter businesses will prevail.

A radical new landscape or

business

There will be a new agenda or

business leaders. Political and

business constituencies will shit

rom thinking o climate change and

resource constraints as environmental

problems to economic ones related to

the sharing o opportunity and costs.

A model o growth and progress will

be sought that is based on a balanced

use o renewable resources and

recycling those that are not. This will

spur a green race, with countries and

business working together as well as

competing to get ahead. Business

leaders will benet rom this change

by thinking about local and global

challenges as more than just costs

and things to be worried about, and

instead using them as an impetus or investments that open up the search

or solutions and the realization o

opportunities.

The transormation will bring with

it huge shits in terms o regulation,

markets, consumer preerences,

the pricing o inputs, and the

measurement o prot and loss;

all o which will impact business.

Rather than ollow change, business

must lead this transormation by

doing what business does best:

cost-eectively creating solutions

that people need and want. The

dierence is that the new solutions

will be based on a global and local

market place with “true values and

costs”, the “truth” being established

by the limits o the planet and

what it takes to live well withinthem. Business, consumers and

policy-makers will experiment,

and, through multi-stakeholder

collaboration, systemic thinking

and co-innovation, nd solutions to

make a sustainable world achievable

and desirable. This is opportunistic

business strategy at its best.

Business leaders must also run

their companies successully under

present ramework conditions while

helping to lead society toward

the new ramework conditions o

sustainability, working closely with

political and social leaders in doing

this. It will mean new partnerships

or business with governments

and civil society groups and more

systemic thinking and approaches

to manage challenges and

opportunities such as a doubling

o urban populations by 2050.Business leaders will need to manage

companies through unprecedented

transormational change, in parallel

with governments getting the right

policies and incentives in place.

It can be done

The participating companies

strongly believe that the world

already has the knowledge, science,

technologies, skills and nancial

resources needed to achieve Vision

2050 but the oundations or much

o what is required will need to be

laid at speed and scale in the next

decade. At the same time, the map

is ar rom complete. There are

still many signicant questions to

be answered about governance,

global rameworks or commerce,

roles and responsibilities, and risks.Nevertheless, these can be answered

in time or progress to be made.

“Humanity has largely had an exploitative relationship with our planet;we can, and should, aim to make this a symbiotic one.” Michael Mack, Syngenta




We have what is needed to live well,

within the limits o the planet: the

scientic knowledge, proven and

emerging technologies, nancial

assets and instant communications.

Nevertheless, today our societies

are on a dangerously unsustainable

track. The story is one o growth in

populations and consumption (in

most countries) compounded by

inertia stemming rom inadequate

governance and policy responses

necessary to manage this growth.

The result is degradation o the

environment and societies.

Growth: Population,

urbanization and consumption

Between now and 2050 the global

population is expected to increase

rom 6.9 billion to more than 9 billion,with 98% o this growth happening

in the developing and emerging

world, according to UN estimates. The

global urban population will double.

Meanwhile, populations are aging

and stabilizing in many developed

countries. Local demographic patterns

will become increasingly diverse.

There have been improvements in

recent decades in terms o economic

growth in many parts o the world,

as well as in areas such as inant and

maternal mortality, ood supply, and

access to clean water and education.

However, extreme poverty continues

to persist.

Most o the economic growth will

happen in developing or emerging

economies. Many people will bemoving up the economic ladder toward

a middle class standard o living,

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population in millions

� Urban - Less developed

� Rural - Less developed

� Urban - More developed

� Rural - More developed

0

China

United StatesIndiaBrazil

MexicoRussia

IndonesiaJ apan

United King dom

Germany

10,000

20,000

30,000GDP 2006 US$ b

n

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

0

2005 2030

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

400 million

1.2 billion

Percent of global population

� Sub-Saharan Africa

� South Asia

� Middle East and North Africa

� Latin America and the Caribbean

� Europe and Central Asia

� East Asia and the Pacific

Figure 1: Outlook to 2050 – Growth

Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008

Source: Goldman Sachs, BRICs and Beyond , 2007

Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects , 2007

Global economic power is shiftingTop 10 economies by GDP in 2050

The world population is increasingly urbanGlobal population by type o area and by region – 1950-2050

The global middle class is rapidly expandingPopulation in low- and middle-income countries earning US$ 4,000-17,000 per capita

(purchasing power parity)

Business-as-usual outlook to 2050




B us i nes s -as -u

s ual out l ook t o 2 0 5 0

1970

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtCO2eq

� Rest of the world

� BRIC (Brazil,Russia, India, China)

� OECD

0

2030

2005

2030

2005

2030

2005

500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Millions of people

2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

ROW

BRIC

OEC

D

� Severe

� Medium

� Low

� No

0%

2000

Forecast post-peak decline rate

2005

Campbell

LBST

Peak Oil Consulting

Energyfiles

Uppsala

Total

BGR

Shell

Miller

Meling

OPEC

IEA

USEIA

2010 2015 2020 2025

Forecast date of peak

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Greenhouse gas emissions keep risingGHG emissions by regions

Environmental degradation jeopardizespeople’s quality of lifePeople living in areas o water stress by level o stress

The world could be running out of some resourcesGlobal supply orecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverableresources o conventional oil, date o peak production and the post-peakaggregate decline rate

Figure 2: Outlook to 2050 – Degradation

ource: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008

ource: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008

ource: UKERC, The Global Oil Depletion Report , 2009

consuming many more resources per

capita. As this growth and development

takes place, substantial changes will

be required in all countries in order or

9 billion people to live well, within the

limits o one planet by 2050.

Inertia and inadequate

governance

The governance and policy responses

to manage this growth oten happen

in silos and are limited by short-

term, localized political pressures,

and thus all short o the level o

commitment needed to make

signifcant progress. In addition,

the choices countries, companies,

communities and individuals make

are oten characterized by inertia

due to short-term goals and sel

interest. Continuing to invest inpolluting or energy-inefcient types

o inrastructure and opting or

high-ootprint consumer liestyle

preerences are examples o such

choices that perpetuate the status quo.

Degradation:

Climate change and

deteriorating ecosystems

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

ound that 15 o the 24 ecosystem

services they evaluated have been

degraded over the past hal century.

A rapid and continuing rise in the

use o ossil uel-based energy and an

accelerating use o natural resources

are continuing to aect key ecosystem

services, threatening supplies o

ood, reshwater, wood ber and sh.

More requent and severe weather

disasters, droughts and amines arealso impacting communities around

the world.




Box 1: Meeting the dual goals o sustainability – High human development and lowecological impact

© Global Footprint Network (2009). Data rom Global Footprint Network National Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP Human Development Report, 2009

The chart sums up the challenge o sustainable development: meeting human demands within the ecological limits o the planet. It

is a snapshot showing how di erent countries perorm according to the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human

Development Index (HDI) and Global Footprint Network’s Ecological Footprint. In countries to the let o the vertical line marking

a score o less than 0.8 on the HDI, a high level o development, as dened by UNDP, has not been attained. Countries above thehorizontal dotted line and to the right o the vertical line have achieved a high level o development but place more demand on

nature than could be sustained i everyone in the world lived this way.

In order to move toward a sustainable uture the world will need to address all dimensions o this chart – the concepts

o success and progress, the biocapacity available per per son, as well as helping countries either improve their levels o

development or reduce their ecological impact (several countries ace both challenges). In Vision 2050 we have identied

ve types o major changes that will be required:

1. Buy into the vision: accept the constraints and opportunities o a world in which 9 billion people live well and within

the limits o the planet

2. Redene success and progress at national, corporate and individual levels

3. Get more out o the planet by increasing bioproductivity

4. Develop solutions to lower ecological impacts while maintaining quality o lie in countries that have high human

development but are overusing ecological capacity5. Improve levels o human development in countries below the threshold or high human development without increasing

their ecological impact beyond acceptable limits.

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

World average biocapacity per person in 2006

World average biocapacity per person in 1961 U

NDP threshold for high human development

High human developmentwithin the Earth’s limits

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ecological F

ootprint (global hectares per person)

United Nations Human Development Index

African countries

Asian countries

European countries

Latin American andCaribbean countries

North American countries

Oceanian countries



“Vision 2050 lays out the challenges, pathway and options that business can use to create an opportunistic strategy, both regionally and globally, that will lead to a sustainable world.” Mohammad A. Zaidi, Alcoa




In 2050, some 9 billion people

live well, and within the limits o

the planet. The global population

has begun to stabilize, mainly due

to the education and economic

empowerment o women and

increased urbanization. More than

6 billion people, two-thirds o the

population, live in cities. People

have the means to meet their basic

human needs, including the need or

dignied lives and meaningul roles

in their communities.

Diversity and interdependence

Countries and cultures remain

diverse and heterogeneous, but

education through secondary school

and universal connectivity have

made people more aware o the

realities o their planet and everyoneon it. The “One World – People

and Planet” ideal is embedded and

practiced globally, emphasizing

interdependence among all people

and dependence on the Earth. There

are still conficts, disasters, shocks,

crime and terrorism, but societies

are resilient, able to withstand

disruption and quickly recover.

People, companies and governments

are orward looking, problem

solving, resilient and experimental –

understanding that security is

achieved through working together

and adapting rapidly in a ast-

changing world.

A dierent economic reality

Economic growth has been

decoupled rom ecosystemdestruction and material

consumption, and re-coupled with

sustainable economic development

and societal well-being. Society has

redened the notion o prosperity

and successul liestyles, as well as

the bases o prot and loss, progress

and value creation to include more

long-term considerations such as

environmental impacts and personal

and societal well-being.

The global economic landscape also

looks dierent rom that o the turn

o the century. The term “developing

country” is rarely used, as most

economies are either developed

or emerging. Asian and American

countries and companies play a

more signicant role in and infuence

the norms o international trade,

nance, innovation and governance

alongside a ew o the nations thathave established their success in

the previous 100 years. Multiple

perspectives are integrated. Capital,

ideas, best practices and solutions

disseminate in all directions.

Multi-partner governance

Nations and the roles o

governments continue to evolve.

Governance systems skillully

make decisions at the most

appropriate local level. Nations

“pool sovereignty” where necessary

to manage international systems

and challenges such as disease,

climate, water, sheries, conficts

and commons. They encourage

local governance and connect

neighborhoods to a mosaic o

partners, be they grassroots groups

or international organizations, tohelp local groups manage issues like

adaptation to climate change and

access to water and sanitation. Much

governance happens at community,

city and regional levels. It is a

complex yet eciently connected

world.

In markets: Innovating and

deploying solutions

Governance also enables and

guides markets by clariying limits

and establishing rameworks that

promote transparency, inclusiveness,

internalized externalities, and other

characteristics o sustainability.

These systems dene targets,

create a level playing eld and

eliminate barriers, enabling business

to innovate and to develop and

deploy solutions. For business,

this level playing eld means that

true values, including externalitiessuch as environmental impact and

the benet o ecosystem services,

are built into the marketplace or

all competitors. Reward systems

recognize sustainable behavior

and as a result business can deliver

solutions that are both sustainable

and competitive. Consumers can

choose sustainable products not just

because they are sustainable but

because they deliver better value.

Dealing with climate change

Society prepares or, and adapts

to, climate change; this adaptation

is achieved largely through joint

eorts between di erent countries

and communities. Integrated and

systemic approaches are used to

manage agriculture, orestry, water

and urban transport, energy andcommunications.

The Vision




T h e V i s i on

Eorts to mitigate urther changes in

climate continue. Harmul emissions

have been signicantly reduced

and a low-carbon society has been

enabled through the ecient use o

clean energy and resources.

Circular, closed-looped and

networked designs that help

people to live well, within one

planet drive successul industry

and reduce the need or primary

resource extraction. Closed-loop

systems make the concept o waste

obsolete. They use waste as an input

and resource, eliminating waste

accumulation on land, in air or in

water. Used products and materials

can be reengineered to unction

again or multiple and distinct

purposes or reduced to raw materialsor manuacturing other products.

The ecient use o materials,

including waste and pollution

management, is many times greater

than at the turn o the century,

enabled by collaboration and

knowledge sharing. Improvements

in areas such as water consumption

eciency and reuse, energy,

wastewater treatment, orest

management and agriculture keep

humanity on track toward living

within the carrying capacity o the

planet. Ecosystem degradation

has been reversed, and ecosystem

services are valued, maintained

and enhanced; biodiversity is being

better managed, is fourishing, and

continues to enable societies to

prosper.

An evolved workplace and

evolved employers

The leading companies are those

that, through their core businesses,

help society manage the world’s

major challenges. They have worked

through the radical transormation

o both internal corporate values and

external market restructuring that

has occurred in the our decades

leading up to 2050, a transormation

that many other companies have not

survived but in which multitudes o

new ones have been spawned.

As survivors, these companies

are more fexible, more adept at

engaging with diverse partners

and customers, and more skilled

at responding to rapid changes

on all ronts. As operations, theyhave demonstrated a ocused and

proactive culture o eliminating

energy and materials waste. They

have discovered that this circular,

closed-loop culture not only reduces

pollution: it also makes them more

collaborative and competitive. As

employers, these businesses have

helped train and develop a more

creative society that is better able to

manage the conficting challenges

o creating and maintaining

sucient jobs while improving

labor productivity. Training has also

resulted in a sucient pool o talent

available to implement the changes

needed. People, as employees, have

learned to be more fexible too, and

to move easily to where jobs exist.




A pathway is a set o descriptions

that illustrates the transition to a

certain scenario, in this case Vision

2050. The pathway outlined in this

chapter gives a macro perspective o

the move toward a more sustainable

world. Nine elements o this

pathway, or critical areas in which

actions need to be taken over the

next our decades, provide a more

detailed picture. The nine areas

covered are values and behaviors,

human development, economy,

agriculture, orests, energy and

power, buildings, mobility and

materials. The pathway and its

elements neither prescribe nor

predict, but are plausible stories

the companies have created by

“backcasting”, working back rom

the vision or 2050 and identiyingthe changes needed to reach it.

We see two timerames: the

Turbulent Teens, rom 2010 to 2020,

and Transormation Time, rom 2020

to 2050. The Turbulent Teens is a

period o energy and dynamism or

the global vision o sustainability. It

is a ormative decade or the ideas

and relationships that will take place

in the 30 years to ollow.

From 2020 to 2050, the traits

ormed during the rst decade

mature into more consistent

knowledge, behavior and solutions.

It is a period o growing consensus

as well as wrenching change in many

parts o society – climate, economic

power, population – and a time or

undamental change in markets thatredenes values, prots and success.

Turbulent Teens (2010-2020):

Crisis, clarity, action

The global nancial crisis at the

end o the previous decade rocks

people’s aith in business and

governments, spurring a quest or

renewal o trust and cooperation.

This takes the orm o a mix o

new alliances to rebuild trust and

nd answers to many o the tough

questions society aces (see box 2).

Government, academia, business

and a range o stakeholders,

including society, work closely

together on trade and economic

development, the design o systems

and metrics to measure progress,

climate change solutions, technology

deployment, improving orest and

arm yields, urban renewal, health

and education, and shiting valuesand behaviors toward sustainability.

During this period, it becomes clear

that swit, radical and coordinated

actions are required at many levels,

by multiple partners. This new

sense o urgency helps establish the

conditions needed to move global

growth onto a more sustainable path.

Crucial among these is a carbon price

and a network o linked emissions

trading rameworks, along with

policies to avoid deorestation and

promote agricultural research. These

developments also help nance the

transition to a low-carbon economy

in developing countries. Better

management o ecosystem services

and deployment o technologies

improve eco-eciency and

bioproductivity. Greenhouse gasemissions peak and start to all and

biodiversity begins to fourish.

Rebuilding the economy, with new rules

Eorts begin to develop rameworks

that decouple economic growth

rom resource consumption and

ecosystem degradation. How to

measure success and progress is

reconsidered. Markets move toward

true-value pricing and long-term

value creation. Tax strategies shit

towards incentivizing job creation and

healthier products and discouraging

negative external actors like pollution

and environmental damage. The

case or long-term investments

and opportunities in areas such as

renewables, energy eciency and

capacity building, particularly in

poorer countries, becomes more valid.

Born o environmental and economic

crises and spread by education and

the media, these initiatives encourage“One World – People and Planet”

behavior in society and individuals.

Business works to make sustainability

an easier choice

Business plays a key role in inorming

the development o rameworks,

policies and innovations. Companies,

policy-makers and customers

experiment with ways to make

sustainable living easier while

improving human well-being.

Products and services that translate

aspirations and values into

sustainable liestyles and behaviors

are increasingly co-created by

enterprises and consumers.

Transormation Time (2020-

2050): Success builds

confdence and momentumActions begun in the previous

decade gain momentum: it is a time

Pathway to 2050




P at h way t o 2 0 5 0

o more-ecient homes, arms,

buildings and vehicles, low-carbon

and renewable energy systems and

smarter electricity grids and water

management. There are continuing

shits in the “sotware” o society:

governance systems, markets and

business models. Governments,

cities, civil society and business nd

themselves collaborating in new

ways to deal with the challenges o

the times.

Innovation, renewal and systems

change

The new value-based economic

architecture catalyzes an era o

innovation in solutions and social

change. Newly competitive, cleaner

and more decentralized energy

technologies are developed anddisseminated to complement

centralized systems. A greater ocus

on ood eciency, security and

ootprint allows societies to meet

rising demand or ood, including

meat and sh. More recycled water

is used or agriculture and energy

and the concept o virtual water

spreads urther. Forestry and arming

are better organized and more land-

ecient. Other natural systems –

rees, wetlands, watersheds and

open seas – are also better managed.

New business models fourish on

networks, institutional renewal and

systems change. Closed-loop systems

create business opportunities. Co-

creation, open source and other

types o intellectual property regimes

exist alongside more traditional

licensing and patenting.

People are healthier and wealthier

Basic needs are increasingly met.

Former least-developed countries

begin to thrive in new trade regimes

that benet all. Education, healthyliving and inclusion accelerate.

There are sucient jobs, and high

levels o labor productivity through

technological advances and skilled

labor. Liestyles that support “living

well within the limits o one planet”

are more popular.

A dynamic path or business

Successul businesses adapt to

changing market realities and

regulatory environments. They have

learned when to lead and when

to ollow. And they have reached

out to new resources, both natural

and human, in order to transorm

themselves and their products to

serve a new world.

Experimentation and creativity

have been the most renewable

and sustainable resources or this

transormation. Creativity has

been sought and ound in product

development, as always. It has

also been sought rom customers,

governments, suppliers, neighbors,

critics and other stakeholders.

Where companies have succeededin tapping new sources o creativity,

success has come rom these new

directions, and it has happened

because the business culture has

been open to new ideas.

Box 2: Tough questions and dilemmas

Over the next our decades societies will grapple with dicult questions and t radeos, or which answers will need to be

ound through collaboration. Tough questions include:

Who will (or should) be the rst mover – people, governments or business? Or as we suggest in this project, do all need to•

move at once? Where is business ready to move orward with other stakeholders?

How can business, governments and society work together to encourage the desired value shits and behavior changes?•

Who will dene the incentives and mechanisms?•

Who nances the transition?•

Trust and long-term thinking are “must have” ingredients or addressing such issues and building inclusive decision-making

processes. These requirements raise some important questions:

How can we achieve this level o trust?•

How can we give/create the right incentives or leaders o companies and countries to prioritize long-term stability and•

progress over short-term success?How can policy-makers and business carr y out the economic restructuring needed both quickly and without incurring•

job losses and economic insecurity?

“The radical changes highlighted in Vision 2050 demand a different perspective from business leaders, requiring them to rethink how they operate to stay on-track for a sustainable future.” Samuel A. DiPiazza, PricewaterhouseCoopers




True value,true costs,true profits

Basic needs of all are met

"One World –People &Planet

Enough food& biofuelsthrough anew GreenRevolution

Cost of carbon, water & other ecosystemservicesinternalized

Billions of people liftedout of poverty

Sustainabilityembedded inall products,services &lifestyles

Agriculturaloutputdoubled byimproved land& water productivity

True valueshelp driveinclusivemarkets

Ecosystems &enterpriseshelp createvalue

Sustainableliving becomesmainstream

Growth inglobal trade,crop yield &carbonmanagement

Redefiningprogress

New measures of success

Economic empowerment of women

Access to basicservices

Opportunitiesfor an agingpopulution

Global, local &corporateleadership

Training of farmers

Freer & fairer trade

Yield gains

Water efficiency

More agri R&D

New crop varieties

Deeper local &environmentalunderstanding

Incentives for behavior change

Buildingtrust,entrepreneur-ialism,inclusiveness

Understanding& encouragingchangethroughcooperation

Cultivatingknowledge-intensiveagriculture

EconomyHuman

development

People’s

values

Removal of subsidies

Commitment totrue value pricing

Long-termfinancing models

Dissemination of technologies

Integrated urbanmanagement

Agriculture

To a sustainable

From business

Transform

ation Tim

e

2050

Turbulent Te

ens

2020

“Must have

s” by 2020

Key them

es fo

r

Turbulent

Teen

s

Key them

es

for Transform

ation

Times

Measures

of success

Our Vision





Recovery&regeneration

Secure &sufficientsupply of low-carbonenergy

Close to zeronet energybuildings

Safe &low-carbonmobility

Not aparticle of waste

Deforestationhalted, carbonstocks inplantedforest doubledfrom 2010

CO2 emissionsreduced by50%worldwide(based on2005 levels)

All newbuildings usezero netenergy

Near universalaccess toreliable andlow-carbonmobility,infrastructure& information

Four totenfoldimprovementin theeco-efficiencyof resources &materials from2000

Momentumgrows for forestprotection &efficientproduction

Greenhousegas emissionspeak & decline

Smarter buildings,wiser users

Smarter mobility

Closing theloop

Commitment tocarbon cuts

Yield gains

Water efficiency

Global carbonprice

Agree on how tomanage GHGs

Cost of

renewableslowered

Energy awareness

Toughenergy-efficiencyrules

Infrastructure investment

Biofuelsstandards

Integratedtransportsolutions

More efficient &alternativedrivetrains

Innovation with consumers

Energy efficiencyin production

Business modelsintegrate allactors

Demand-side efficiency

Landfillsphased out

Closed loopdesign

Value chaininnovation

Drivingprogressthrough carbonincentives

Tilting &leveling theplaying field for energy

Turning themarket towardenergyefficiency

Improvingoveralltransportthrough aholisticapproach

Doing morewith less

Forests Energy and

power

Buildings Mobility Materials

world in 2050

as usual

The pathway and itsnine elements that leadus to Vision 2050




ECONOMIC ESTIMATES

The potential magnitude o the global

business opportunities that could

arise rom realizing a sustainable

uture is considerable. This section

looks at estimating the global order o

magnitude o potential sustainability

related business opportunities in key

sectors in 2050.

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has,

as part o their contribution to the

Vision 2050 project, prepared an

illustrative analysis o the order o

magnitude o some o the global

business opportunities that might

arise i the vision o a sustainable

uture in 2050 is realized. They

adopted a top-down macroeconomic

approach, making use o existing

bottom-up analysis by the

International Energy Agency (IEA) in

the climate change area. The analysis

ocuses on required additional

investment or spending in two key

areas highlighted in the Vision 2050

study: natural resources, and health

and education. Other sectors were

not included due to the absence

o any clear basis or producing

quantied estimates, but they would

be expected to add urther to the

scale o business opportunities.

Illustrative estimates (see table 1)

suggest that the sustainability related

global business opportunities in

natural resources (including energy,

orestry, agriculture and ood, water

and metals) and health and education

(in terms o social sustainability) could

build up steadily to around US$ 3-10

trillion annually in 2050 at constant

2008 prices, or around 1.5-4.5% o

world GDP at that time. By 2020 the

gure could be around US$ 0.5–1.5

trillion per annum at constant 2008

prices (assuming a broadly linear build-up o these opportunities over

time as a share o GDP).

Approach

Natural resources: Estimates of

required additional investments in the

energy sector related to reducing carbon

emissions are based on projections in

the IEA’s 2008 Energy Technology

Perspectives report; estimates for other

natural resource sectors are benchmarked

against these energy estimates, taking

into account the relative size of different

sectors and a broad judgmental assessment of the required scale of the

transformation in each sector to achieve

desired Vision 2050 outcomes.

Health and education: Estimates

are based on raising emerging economy

health and education GDP shares to

2005 G7 (Canada, France, Germany,

Italy, Japan, the UK and the US) levels

by 2050 (bearing in mind that G7

education and health spending shares

of GDP will probably have increased

further by then), then making a

broad judgmental assumption on the

proportion of the increased health

and education spending in emerging

economies that will translate into

increased spending on private sector

goods and services.

Table 1: Illustrative estimates o the global order o magnitude o potential additional

sustainability related business opportunities in key sectors in 2050Sectors Annual value in 2050

(US$ trillion at constant 2008prices: mid-points with ranges

shown in brackets)

% o projected world GDPin 2050

Energy 2.0 (1.0-3.0) 1.0 (0.5-1.5)

Forestry 0.2 (0.1-0.3) 0.1 (0.05-0.15)

Agriculture and ood 1.2 (0.6-1.8) 0.6 (0.3-0.9)

Water 0.2 (0.1-0.3) 0.1 (0.05-0.15)

Metals 0.5 (0.2-0.7) 0.2 (0.1-0.3)

Total: Natural resources 4.1 (2.0-6.1) 2.0 (1.0-3.0)Health and education 2.1 (0.8-3.5) 1.0 (0.5-1.5)

Total 6.2 (2.8-9.6) 3.0 (1.5-4.5)

Source: PwC estimates drawing on data rom IEA , OECD and the World Bank





ECOLOGICAL ESTIMATES

In collaboration with the Global

Footprint Network, we calculated

the Vision 2050 ecological ootprint

against business-as-usual. We ound

that by 2050, despite increases in

population, humanity will be using

the equivalent o just over one

planet, based on the changes weembrace in Vision 2050, as opposed

to the 2.3 planets we would be using

i we continued on the business-

as-usual path we are on today (see

fgure 3). The world will be in a much

better position i we maintain the

course implied in the pathway and

its elements, with the possibility o

getting to one planet by around the

end o the 2050s, early 2060s.

Vision 2050 assumptions suggest

a reversal o the growing

consumption and ecological

degradation paradigm. We would

see a signicantly lower ecological

ootprint in 2050 and indeed steady

improvements in biocapacity ater

around 2015.

Approach

The Vision 2050 ecological footprint

assumptions are compatible with the

measures detailed in the pathway

developed by the project. They

are based on median population

projections for 2050 of 9.2 billion

(United Nations – UN), a 50%

reduction from 2005 levels of carbon

emissions by 2050 (International

Energy Agency Energy Technology

Perspectives, IEA ETP – 2008, Blue

Map Scenario), improvements in forest

yields through managed forests and

an increase in forest areas after 2030

( Vision 2050 project assumptions),

an increase in average global crop

yields of 2% a year or more above recent historical levels as a result of

the dissemination of best practice and

high levels of innovation ( Vision 2050

project assumptions). Global average

food consumption is similar to current

Costa Rican food consumption levels

(Food and Agriculture Organization –

FAO). The assumptions for the

business-as-usual path are the same

for population and food consumption,

while those for carbon emissions,

forests and crop yields differ. Carbon

emissions increase with increased

population and economic growth (IEA ,

ETP 2008, Business-as-Usual Baseline

Scenario); forest areas continue to

follow the 1950-2005 linear trends while forest plantation and crop

yields remain constant. Carbon

emissions are shown in the ecological

footprint through the carbon footprint

component. This translates the amount

of carbon dioxide emissions into the

amount of productive land and sea

area required to sequester said carbon

dioxide. The date by which we hit one

planet is calculated based on a linear

extrapolation of trends between 2040

and 2050.

2.3 Earths (BAU)

1.1 Earths (Vision 2050)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Number of Earths

Year

� Carbon footprint

� Cropland

� Grazing land

� Forest land

� Built-up land

� Fishing ground

Figure 3: Vision 2050 ecological ootprint against business-as-usual – How many Earths do we use?

Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010




Eorts toward sustainability in the

coming decade could create many

large business opportunities in three

general categories: building and

transorming where and how we live,

improving and managing biocapacity

and ecosystems, and developing new

nancial and collaboration structures

to help enable the changes required

in the rst categories.

Building and transorming cities

More people live in cities than in rural

areas, and this trend will continue.

Urban expansion will accentuate the

eects o energy, land and resource

shortages in and around cities as

developing countries change rom

arm-based economies to product

and service economies. Some

estimates suggest that by 2030 US$40 trillion will need to be invested in

urban inrastructure worldwide. Cities

must be designed and retrotted

to minimize waste in all orms, to

help biodiversity and ecosystems to

fourish and to provide inhabitants

with the basic elements o human

well-being in a resource- and

energy-ecient manner. However,

cities vary, and one size does not t

all. Re-envisioning the design and

management o buildings, spaces and

inrastructure systems will be central

to this urban evolution.

Dierent types o cities with varying

attributes and prospects present

dierent types o challenges and

opportunities (see table 2). In the

coming decade sustainable urban

planning and design will fourish

as new “green”, planned cities,

such as Masdar in the United Arab

Emirates or Dongtang in China, with

aspirations or zero waste, are built

rom scratch. “Brown” (London, UKand Seoul, Korea) and “blue” (Dhaka,

Bangladesh and New Orleans, USA)

cities will not only reintroduce nature

into their plans, but also retrot old

buildings with improved recyclable

materials and inormation exchange

systems. “Red” cities, like Mumbai,

India and Soweto, South Arica, with

booming populations but inadequate

resources, present opportunities to

develop aordable, scalable and

eco-ecient solutions that improve

quality o everyday lie.

Eciency standards or heating,

cooling and electric appliances will

be continuously improved while

smart meters that monitor energy

use and send price signals indicating

best operating times will increase

energy conservation. How citizens

live and commute will continue

to be critical to building and

space management that reduces

greenhouse gas emissions.

Urban mobility oers business

opportunities as urban planning

integrates mobility with the socio-

economic environment, creating

transport options while tempering

Table 2: Types o cities, their attributes and opportunities

Brown Red Green Blue

Example London, Seoul Mumbai, Soweto Masdar, Dongtang Dhaka, New Orleans

Development Gradual : Aginginrastructure,slow to change

Ad-hoc: Highlypopulated, stillgrowing, withinadequateinrastructure

Deliberate: Citiesplanned or optimalsustainability

At-risk locations:Low lying,at risk rom rising sealevels

O

pportunity

Buildings New constructionand retrot

Aordable and lowecological impacthousing

Holistic design Adaptation

Waste Waste mining, recycling and collection

Water andSewage

New constructionand retrot

Leaprog Closed loop design Maintaining supply

Energy Cleaner energy Access to reliable energy “Smarter” systems Maintaining supply

Mobility New constructionand retrot

Access to low-cost andlow-carbon mobilityand inrastructure

Smarter mobility Maintaininginrastructure o privateand public transport

Opportunities




Oppor t uni t i e

s

“Sustainability will become a key driver for all our investment decisions.” Idar Kreutzer, Storebrand

travel demand. More ecient vehicles

are needed or expanding global

markets. Adequate investments in

transport inrastructure will

create a diverse mix o options and

ecient trac fow, while intelligent

transportation systems allow people

to combine dierent means o

transport that minimize waiting times.

Options include light-duty vehicles,

airplanes, shipping, trains, buses,

motorcycles, bicycles, other two and

three-wheeled vehicles, walking and

inormation and communications

technology-enabled connectivity.

Consumers will need accurate

inormation to make transportation

decisions. Urban reight transport will

continue to have special fexibility and

load capacity requirements.

Building and transorming

energy inrastructure

OECD/Global Insight estimates

required inrastructure investments

at US$ 10.3 trillion until 2015. Just

under a third (US$ 3.2 trillion) o this

will be or new capacity, while US$

7.1 trillion is needed or reinvestment.

Energy inrastructure will be made

low carbon, and greater demand

or energy will drive innovation and

investment in its supply, transmission

and distribution. The market or

renewables is expected to more than

double rom around US$ 115 billion

in 2008 to just over US$ 325 billion

within a decade, according to Clean

Edge Research. An estimated US$

13 trillion in investments will need to

be made to upgrade transmission anddistribution networks worldwide by

2030.

Demand will grow or solutions

that help users manage energy

consumption, including multi-

way inormation exchange and

telecommunications. Pricing

signals, which orm the basis o a

dynamic energy pricing regime, will

encourage time-shiting o energy

use to spread electricity loads more

evenly over a day.

Water will still be a billion-dollar

business at the national level and

a multi-million dollar business at

the city level. New solutions will

continue to be needed or treating,

conserving and improving access to

water, and an estimated US$ 200

billion in annual investments will be

required up to 2030. Meeting the

UN Millennium Development Goalsor drinking water and sanitation will

require US$ 11.3 billion per year.

Wastewater will be increasingly

seen as a resource. Circular water

systems will recycle water within

city systems rather than releasing it

into rivers and seas. Opportunity will

lie in the design and management o

these new, closed water systems.

On the demand side, many

opportunities will arise in reducing

absolute water use through

eciency and conservation. Globally,

agriculture is currently responsible or

70% o reshwater use, but the water

productivity o agriculture can be

dramatically improved or all crops.

New green cities can constructadvanced sewage systems that

recycle nutrients, ensure rainall

collection and secure water supplies.

Urban wetlands can enhance city

cooling and food prevention while

increasing urban biodiversity.

Mining waste can recapture

materials and reduce the demand

or raw resources. For example,

aluminum product recycling rates are

currently quite high, but only 10%

o aluminum oil is recovered and

recycled. With the global aluminum

oil market at around 2.8 million

tonnes, the opportunity to recover

oil is worth US $5.6 billion, at US$

2,000 per tonne. As new materials

become increasingly scarce and

environmentally costly, economics

will encourage the recovery o

landll waste and by-products

such as methane gas. As a zero-waste mindset replaces an “end o

lie” mentality, there will be many

opportunities or recycling, including

specialized systems or collecting

the usable components o discarded

waste and separating them according

to demand or materials.

Building and transorming

livelihoods and liestyles

There are opportunities in helping

people live more sustainably.

Improving access to healthcare

and education, as well as a more

outcome-ocused approach to such

services, will improve livelihoods in

both rich and poor countries.

The low-carbon, service-centric

economy o the uture will depend

on scaled-up education programsthat build skills among existing

labor pools, empower new sources




o labor and entrepreneurialism,

such as women and the elderly,

and drive more inormed choices

among consumers. Governments

and business will invest in education

inrastructure and expand content

to increase people’s knowledge o

natural systems (natural literacy) so

they can improve their consumption

patterns. This education growth will

increase opportunities to develop and

supply acilities, curricula, technology

and other products and services.

Approaches to health will shit rom

treatment to care and prevention.

Investments will be made to ght

diseases, with aordable diagnosis,

drugs and vaccines, and additional

healthcare acilities, particularly in

developing regions. This responsewill need to ocus on prevention,

which will require new products and

services to help people avoid getting

sick, and on controlling health system

costs. Healthcare in most countries

will change rom hospital-centric to

patient-centric preventive care.

Bridging healthcare gaps will

require more primary, secondary and

tertiary healthcare acilities, rom

simple medical acilities in rural areas

to urban hospitals oering a ull range

o care. The number o private clinics

will rise considerably, and improved

health insurance systems will acilitate

their development. Sae water,

sanitation, clean air and housing will

be priorities or emerging economies.

By 2020 people aged 65 and abovewill account or about 20% o the

global population. Each month,

around 1.9 million people will

join the ranks o the over-65s.

These people will seek goods and

services that help them maintain

independent, integrated lives.

Sae nancial products that give

over-65s greater income security

and suitable technology and

communication tools that help them

stay in touch with society, riends

and amily will be in high demand.

Online social networks will be

popular, providing access to dierent

communities and oering the

possibility to share experience with

other cultures and younger people.

The desire to continue to learn and

develop skills ater retirement will

create demand or online content

and or schools and universities tocontinue to teach the elderly.

The global middle class will grow

rom some 1.7 billion people today

to 3.6 billion by 2030, with most o

this growth in emerging economies.

Unless consumers choose the right

products and use them properly, it

will be hard to achieve sustainability

by 2050.

Consumers seeking products and

services that let them reduce their

carbon ootprint in ways that

are easy, desirable and seamless

will demand more product

inormation. New business models

that provide consumers with desired

experiences via sharing or leasing will

thrive as consumers place less value

on ownership. Multi-purpose devicesand technologies will help consumers

to make more inormed choices.

Improving biocapacity and

managing ecosystems

Agricultural productivity will need

to grow 2% annually to eed, clothe

and provide energy or the world’s

population by 2050. Net investments

in agriculture must top US$ 83 billion

per year, up roughly 50% rom

current levels. Better seeds will be

developed to increase yields per

drop o water and nutrients, and

resist pests and diseases. New arm

and orestry techniques will improve

the management o competing

vegetation and application o

nutrients. Best practice solutions

will be spread via new knowledge

platorms. Shared distribution

networks among dierent companies

and sectors o society will help bridge

distribution gaps to ensure thatremote armers are able to use the

best technology and know-how.

The degradation o ecosystems due

to deorestation means that each year

the world loses natural capital worth

between US$ 1.9 and 4.5 trillion. The

bioproductivity o armland will

increase in ways that allow the return

o spaces to wildlie and complement

the productivity o natural systems.

Planting trees, improving orest

productivity, restoring degraded

land, and avoided deorestation will

help mitigate climate change, and,

through conservation payments plus

payments or ecosystem services, will

contribute to economic development.

Some estimates suggest that

ecosystem markets or productsrom certied orests could grow

rom an estimated US$ 15 billion




Oppor t uni t i e

s

in 2010 to around US$ 50 billion

in 2050. For certied agricultural

products, estimates suggest

ecosystems markets could grow rom

US$ 42 million in 2005 to around

US$ 97 billion in 2012 (assuming

an annual growth rate o 15%),

potentially increasing by a actor o

10 to US$ 900 billion in 2050.

Helping change happen

Sustainability requires some key

enablers that present signicant

opportunities or businesses involved

in nancing, inormation and

transparency, risk management and

complex coalition building. While

governance, including policies and

regulation, is also critical, there are

ways business can act directly.

Traditional fnancing models will

not suce, and more innovation

is needed to create instruments

that are robust enough to adapt

quickly to conditions o need:

scalable, practical, aordable, easy

to implement and suitable or mass

replication. For large inrastructure

projects, collaboration could

provide new sources o unding.

For example, the lie insurance and

pension industry believes that with

the appropriate regulatory and risk

assessment rameworks, 2-5% o

assets under management by the

European lie insurance industry

could be allocated to inrastructure

projects. This equates to billions

o dollars. At the other end o the

spectrum, microfnancing (loans

o typically less than US$ 250) willcontinue to grow in both developed

and developing economies, targeting

women or higher returns, as

their prots are returned to amily

and community. Micro, small

and medium enterprises that

create jobs will increasingly need

dependable and aordable sources

o capital to systemically and rapidly

generate the jobs needed to realize

Vision 2050.

More capital fowing among

increasingly larger groups o

collaborators and growing

regulatory and compliance

requirements will need increased

transparency. This will generate

a need or proessional services

related to reporting, accounting

and assurance coupled with

inormation technologies to acilitate

global real time data collectionand analysis. Inormation and

communication technologies,

particularly mobile ones, and

access to aster, more reliable and

convenient orms o Internet access

will continue to drive innovation

in business models and economic

development in emerging economies

and the developing world. Today,

an extra 10 mobile phones per

100 people in a typical developing

country, or example, boosts GDP

growth by 0.8%, according to the

World Bank.

New orms o risk sharing and

transer (beyond traditional insurance

models) will emerge. At the base o

the pyramid, the size o the potential

market or microinsurance and

other commercial opportunities indeveloping countries is estimated

to be 1.5-3 billion policies. Annual

growth rates have been over

10%. The Microinsurance Centre

estimates that over the next decade

the microinsurance market could

grow sevenold, to one billion

policyholders. Dierent types o

partnerships involving a variety o

actors rom dierent geographical

regions, industries, sectors o society

and specialties will be pivotal in

determining the most appropriate

hedge to these types o big

investments.

Demand will grow or those able

to build and manage complex

coalitions. Systems and structures

including housing, mobility, energy,

water and waste management

do not and cannot operate in

isolation. The interdependentnature o these elements will be

increasingly important, inorming the

development and design o solutions.

Similarly, the range o issues to be

aced during the transition to a

sustainable uture will cross borders,

sectors and industries. Inormation

and communications technologies

will continue to increase the speed

and scale o inormation exchange

and will play a signicant part in

eciency improvements.

Sophisticated early warning

systems, as well as ongoing risk

monitoring and management at all

levels, are likely to evolve. These

systems will oer opportunities not

only or the provider o the service,

but also to the users who stand to

gain substantially rom increasedmonitoring and inormation-sharing

capabilities.




Crisis. Opportunity. It is a business

cliché, but there is truth in it.

The perect storm we ace, o

environment, population, resources

and economy, will bring with it

many opportunities.

In this report we’ve identifed many o

these, and ways in which to leverage

them as the world addresses its

challenges: inrastructure to build,

medicine to discover, technology to

develop, new strains o ood to create

and grow to eed a growing population.

What has driven this report, rom its

beginning, is one opportunity that

trumps them all: our Vision 2050 o

9 billion people living well, within

the limits o one planet. While we

have the world’s attention, while theglobal ocus is on environment and

economics, we can act boldly to break

the unsustainable model o growth-by-

depletion. By 2050, we can replace it

with a model o growth based on the

balanced use o renewable resources

and recycling those that are not.

The pathway to this sustainable world

contains opportunities and risks,

and will radically change the ways in

which companies do business. Many

companies will change and adapt,

while others will be challenged to

make the transition.

Moving toward Vision 2050 will

require business to engage more

closely than ever beore with both

government and civil society. Key

questions will need to be deliberatedand sorted: Who denes the incentives

and mechanisms? Who nances the

transition processes (especially research

and development, and enhanced

technology deployment)? Who will

or should be the rst mover in various

activities? How will success be dened?

Complex systems will provide

the oundation

Our fndings suggest that there is no

simple, single path, but rather the need

to design, build and transorm complex

systems (e.g., energy, fnance, ood,

orests, transport and cities) that will in

turn provide the oundation or survival

and human development throughout

the 21st century and beyond.

History can teach us much. Revisiting

the key concepts, assumptions and

approaches that have underpinned past

business and market success, and its rolein enabling societal progress and human

development over the past 50 years, will

be important. As in the past, this will

require external enabling conditions. It

will also require enlightened leadership

and imagination, because there will be

much uncharted territory where history

has less to oer us.

Business cannot do it alone

The window or action could be

closing, and much will need to be

done in the next decade. Progress

must be secured across many

dierent domains, sectors and

regions. Business will be a key player

in this endeavor, yet business by

itsel, or as we know it today, will not

be enough. Government, civil society

and the public at large must be

equally committed. Delaying actionwill make the already ambitious

targets that much harder to achieve.

In rearming the role o business in a

society on track to a sustainable world,

we have stressed that there will be

signicant opportunities that warrant

urther exploration, as well as risks to

manage. These all into three key areas:

New business opportunities derived1.

rom Vision 2050 or the decade

ahead. This learning helps set the

new internal agenda or business:

strategic priorities, skills and capacity

building, new business development

and possible portolio priorities.

New external relations priorities,2.

derived rom a review o business

opportunities and an analysis o what

is required by government and other

stakeholders to realize these business

opportunities. This will help business

defne its new external agenda:stakeholder relations priorities, new

topics to engage on and a new

agenda or business associations.

New risks to monitor and address,3.

based on the actions o other

stakeholders and on critical and

pertinent risks rom the risks and

wild card analysis.

The journey begins now

This report represents the rst step

in a 40-year journey. It is a call or

urther dialogue, and it is a call or

action. Collaboration, conviction and

courage will be required to visualize

and implement the radical changes

needed or long-term prosperity while

succeeding in current conditions.

Business leaders will want, and need,

to lead toward sustainability, and we

invite political and civil society leadersto join us in this challenging and

exciting journey.

Conclusion and way orward




Acknowledgements

Many people have contributed tothe Vision 2050 project during the

past 18 months. Key among these

have been the project co-chairs,

project member companies and the

core team who are acknowledged

at the beginning o this brie report.

The project has benetted rom

working with leading consultants,

advisers and writers: Ged Davis

(lead consultant), Angela Wilkinson;

University o Oxord (adviser), Bradley.R. Fisher (writer), Lloyd Timberlake

(writer) and Robert Horn (visualizer/

synthesizer). Individual and corporate

experts, WBCSD Regional Network

partners, companies, WBCSD staers

and interns, and various stakeholder

groups, in particular the Global

Footprint Network and the Alliance

or Global Sustainability, have also

contributed signicantly. The project

has collected regional viewpoints

and tested its ndings in some 30

dialogues around the world. In

addition, the project companies have

called upon the expertise o many

people working within their respective

organizations. Full acknowledgment

is given in the ull report Vision 2050:

The new agenda for business .

To all contributors – named as wellas unnamed – we express our sincere

thanks.

About the WBCSD

The World Business Council or Sustainable Development (WBCSD)

is a unique, CEO-led, global

association o some 200 companies

dealing exclusively with business

and sustainable development. The

Council provides a platorm or

companies to explore sustainable

development, share knowledge,

experiences and best practices,

and to advocate business positions

on these issues in a variety o orums, working with governments

and non-governmental and

intergovernmental organizations.

Vision 2050 contacts

Project Director: Per Sandberg,

[email protected]

Assistant Program Manager:

Kija Kummer,

[email protected]

Project Manager: Nijma Khan,

[email protected]

Project Manager: Li Li Leong,

[email protected]

For urther inormation and resources

on Vision 2050, please check our

website at www.wbcsd.org/web/

vision2050.htm

Disclaimer

This report is released in the nameo the WBCSD. It is the result o an

18-month collaborative eort among

representatives rom 29 member

companies and supported by the

WBCSD secretariat. Like other WBCSD

projects, Vision 2050 has involved

a broad range o stakeholders

in locations around the world.

Developed in close consultation with

the project members and several

other consultants/advisers, the reportwas reviewed by all project members

to ensure broad agreement with its

principal views and perspectives.

However, this does not mean that

every member company necessarily

endorses or agrees with every

statement in the report. Use o and

reliance on the report shall be at the

discretion o the readers.

Copyright © WBCSD, February 2010

ISBN: 978-3-940388-57-5

Design: Services Concept

Photo credits: iStock, Flickr, photos.com,

UNFPA, Dreamstime, Stora Enso,

Titan, Arcelor Mittal, Shell, Word Bank

Printer: Atar Roto Presse SA,

Switzerland. Printed on paper

containing 40% recycled content and

60% rom mainly certied orests(FSC and PEFC). 100% chlorine ree,

ISO 14001 certied mill.

vision 2050 summary final

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