vietnam market pulse q2 2015 - worldwide | nielsen · vietnam market pulse q2 ... nielsen asia...
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Vietnam Market Pulse Q2 2015
VIETNAM MARKET PULSE Q2 2015
Prepared by Nielsen Vietnam -
STANDING OUT DURING THE SLOW-DOWN
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THE ECONOMY KEEPS UP THE GOOD MOMENTUM IN Q2’15
Source: Vietnam General Office of Statistics (www.gso.gov.vn)
H1’15 GDP
+6.28% vs YA, the fastest first-half-of-
the-year growth rate in the past 5 years
H1’15 CPI +0.86% vs YA, still under
control
PETROL AND ELECTRICITY’S PRICE INCREASE slightly bring up CPI
MANUFACTURING sector performed
strongly, +9.5% vs YA
AGRICULTURE
+2.4% vs YA, slower growth may
dampen rural income growth
STABLE FOOD PRICES keeps CCI under control
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… BUT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECREASES CCI Q1’ 2015 growth is a result of positive macro economy signs and Tet
Source: Nielsen Asia Pacific Consumer Confidence Index – Q2’15
98 102
106
112
104
Q2 2914 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
VIETNAM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
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# CONCERN
1 HEALTH
2 THE ECONOMY
3 JOB SECURITY
4 INCREASE UTILITY BILLS
5 WORK LIFE BALANCE
…MAINLY DRIVEN BY PETROL PRICE AND ELECTRICITY PRICE INCREASE
21390 19930
17570 15670
17280
20430 21710
Q1 2015 Q2 2015
PETROL PRICE (RON 92) – NOV’14 – JUN’15
SINCE 16.03.2015, ELECTRICITY
PRICE INCREASE FOR 7.5%
TOP 5 CONCERNS IN VIETNAM
DECREASE IN RANKING
INCREASE IN RANKING
THE SAME IN RANKING
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-2.8%
1.0%
-1.2% -2.3%
-5.2%
-1.9%
1.1%
0.5% 2.9%
0.0% 0.5%
2.3% 2.4% 1.4%
-2.0%
0.5%
3.1%
1.8%
3.4%
0.9%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
AFTER A STRONG TET SEASON, FMCG STAGNATES IN Q2’15 WITHOUT VOLUME GROWTH
Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS DYNAMICS – TOTAL 6 CITIES
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12.1
13.8
12.5
7.8
13.5
5.6
14.1 14.0
6.0
11.6
2.4 1.4
-2.0
0.5
3.1
1.8
3.4
0.9
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
Retail sales (excl. service) Growth vs YA FMCG Nominal Growth vs YA 6 CTs
THE SEASONAL PICK UP IN Q1 DID NOT LAST, WHICH HAPPENED ACROSS THE RETAIL MARKET
Source: Retail Sales (excl. service) taken from Vietnam General Statistic Office (www.gso.gov.vn)
FMCG Nominal growth from Nielsen Retail Audit Data
VIETNAM RETAIL SALES (EXCL. SERVICE) vs FMCG NOMINAL GROWTH 6 CITIES
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GROWTH IS UNDER EXPECTATION ACROSS APAC
Soủrce: Nielsen Growth Reporter Q2 2015
FMCG GROWTH RATE
Volume > Value Growth Volume = Value Growth Volume < Value Growth
FMCG Volume Growth Rate (in%)
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Avg. (Q1 2015
& Q2 2015)
INDONESIA 0.3% 2.5% 1.4%
VIETNAM 3.4% 0% 1.7%
HONG KONG 2.2% 1% 1.6%
THAILAND 4.3% 4.5% 4.4%
INDIA 5.2% 7.4% 6.3%
CHINA 0.9% -0.5% 0.2%
AUSTRALIA 0.3% 1% 0.7%
TAIWAN -1.2% 0.1% -0.6%
SINGAPORE 1.4% 3.6% 2.5%
KOREA -1.6% -0.3% -1%
PH 3.6% 2.2% 2.9%
NZ 2.8% 1.9% 2.4%
MY 3.9% -0.4% 1.8%
JAPAN -3.4% 5.5% 1.1%
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FORECASTING SHOWS THE TOUGH TIMES FOR FMCG ARE SET TO CONTINUE
Source: Nielsen Syndicated Forecasting
• EXPECTED AVERAGE FORECAST as the most likely scenario , 95% chance will be within 2-3% of this scenario • EXPECTED MAX FORECAST most likely happens in optimistic market, with the signal of:
• Big increase in FDI. • Strengthening Forex • Big increase in consumer confidence.
• EXPECTED MIN FORECAST most likely happens in pessimistic market, with the signal of: • Recession – 2 periods of declining GDP growth • Tax hikes – introduction of GST, gas prices tax increase • Political turmoil
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16%
38%
15%
BEVERAGE MILK BASE FOOD
Unit Value change Volume change Nominal growth
THERE IS A DIFFERENT PICTURE AMONG SUPER GROUPS. BEVERAGES CONTINUE TO BE THE STAR
Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago
-2.5% -2.8%
-0.9% -4.4%
5.2%
-2.5% -3.9%
2.5%
8.2% 9.7% 9.6% 6.7%
-2.4% -0.5%
-0.6%
-0.1%
-3.0%
-3.5%
SUPER CATEGORY CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – TOTAL 6 CITIES
Milk Powder , Spoon Yoghurt, Sweetened Condense Milk, Ready to drink milk
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CIGARETTE PERSONAL CARE HOME CARE BABY CARE
Unit Value change Volume change Nominal growth
THE MARKET REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR OTHER KEY CATEGORIES
Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago
0.7% 3.0%
4.5%
-0.6% 3.4%
-0.3% 0.0%
0.8%
5.6% 3.9%
7.1%
2.1% -2.0% -2.2%
-2.8%
-5.2% -4.8%
-4.0%
12.8%
4.3%
0.6% -10.8%
-11.2%
-5.9%
6% 9% 13%
4%
SUPER CATEGORY CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – TOTAL 6 CITIES
Baby Cereal Baby Diaper
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1.1%
3.5%
-1.5%
2.1%
4.6% 4.1% 3.7%
1.6%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Total Urban
Unit Value change Volume change Nominal growth
Source: Nielsen Retail Audit – Versus year ago Note: This slide only includes Feminine Protection, Hair Conditioner, Shampoo, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Personal Wash, Dishwashing Liquids, Fabric Softener, Laundry Products, Bouillon-MSG, RTDM, Soft Drink, Packaged Water, Energy Drink, RTDT, Cigarette, Sport Drink and Sweet Condensed Milk
RURAL SHOWS BETTER GROWTH THAN URBAN IN THE LAST 2 QUARTERS
-0.2%
1.5%
-4.0%
-1.9%
0.2%
-0.7%
3.5% 2.7%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Total Rural
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS DYNAMICS – URBAN vs RURAL
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AND 11/18 CATEGORIES HAVE POSITIVE GROWTH RATE IN RURAL, PROVING THE RURAL POTENTIAL Especially Beverage super group and small categories
54%
Rural
Urban
CATEGORIES’ VALUE GROWTH IN RURAL – H1 2015 vs YA VAL URBAN vs RURAL – MAT TY
Source: Nielsen Retail Audit Note: This slide only includes Feminine Protection, Hair Conditioner, Shampoo, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Personal Wash, Dishwashing Liquids, Fabric Softener, Laundry Products, Bouillon-MSG, RTDM, Soft Drink, Packaged Water, Energy Drink, RTDT, Beer, Cigarette, Sport Drink and Sweet Condensed Milk
BEVERAGE FOOD MILK BASED PERSONAL CARE HOME CARE
68%
POPULATION FMCG
CIGARETTE
-7.5 -3.3 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 -0.3
0.7 1.8 2.1 2.7 5.2 5.6 6.2 7.0 7.5 8.0
14.5
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
46
46 53 49 47 53
58
47 50 34 49 57 67 46 42 51 63
60
Top 5 fastest growing categories
in Rural
X Rural contribution in total Nationwide – MAT TY
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RURAL IT’S EASIER SAID THAN DONE
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RURAL SHOWS HIGH VOLATILITY IN GROWTH When the economy was weaker (2014) , Rural consumers declined in consumption, however they re-cover with a more positive macro situation (H1 2015)
Source: Nielsen Retail Audit – Value Growth vs YA
-1.7% -1.6%
-11.1%
-1.9%
2014 2015 H1
-2.1% -1.0%
-9.9%
4.5%
2014 2015 H1
PERSONAL CARE
HOME CARE
4.5% 3.7%
-1.0%
5.4%
2014 2015 H1
MILK BASED
2.3%
9.1%
1.4%
5.5%
2014 2015 H1
BEVERAGE
-7.6%
-3.1%
-10.0%
0.5%
2014 2015 H1
CIGARETTE
VALUE GROWTH VS YA IN RURAL – BREAKING DOWN BY SUPER GROUP
URBAN
RURAL
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LOCAL MANUFACTURERS PLAY AN IMPORTANT PART IN RURAL CONSUMER’S LIFE …demonstrating the large opportunity for MNCs in the rural market
Source: Nielsen Retail Audit data
Note: all the number is rounded Local Players = Non-Multi National Companies
CONTRIBUTION OF LOCAL PLAYERS IN RURAL OFF vs URBAN OFF – MAT TY
10%
PERSONAL CARE
30%
HOUSEHOLD CARE
77%
MILK BASE
28%
BEVERAGE
80%
BEER
45%
CIGARETTE
25%
03%
55% 65%
15% 13%
Rural Urban Rural Urban
Rural Urban
Rural Urban
Rural Urban Rural Urban
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LIMITED JOB OPPORTUNITIES
LIMITED INCOME
SEASONAL INCOME
MORE EDUCATED
MORE WEALTH
A MIX OF CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES REQUIRES PROPER ROUTE TO MARKET PLAN
Source: GSO 2012; Nielsen Rural study 2014
44% INCOME PER CAPITA
GROWTH VS 33% IN URBAN (2010 – 2012)
2.5 times MORE COLLEGE GRADUATES
(2014 vs. 2009)
70% RELY ON FARMING/FISHING
AND HIRED LABOR
1.5M MONTHLY INCOME PER
CAPITA IN 2012 (0.5X URBAN)
3% UNDEREMPLOYMENT
(3X URBAN)
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WHAT WORKS IN URBAN MAY NOT WORK IN RURAL Different ways to reach the same consumer – eye on TV and WOM
affects brand purchase decision
being a trustworthy source
product information (specification/function)
information source only
88% share of
total time spent on media usage
3.4 hours
spent on watching TV
daily
A SOURCE OF ENTERTAINMENT • A RELIABLE
SOURCE OF PRODUCT
INFORMATION
MOST TRUSTWORTHY
SOURCE
A SOURCE OF INOFRMATION
A SOURCE OF PRODUCT
INFORMATION
Source: Nielsen Rural Study 2014
29%
40%
69%
69%
69%
57%
38%
47%
50%
42%
20%
20%
36%
48%
16%
18%
WOM TV PRINT INTERNET
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MORE ROOM TO PUT MORE SKUS IN RURAL STORES Rural consumers want a variety of choice but rural stores handle less SKUs (despite having a larger selling area).
Source: Nielsen Rural Study 2014, Nielsen Retail Audit Data and Nielsen Retail Establishment Survey 2014
77% ALWAYS WANT TO TRY
NEW PRODUCTS
95% ALWAYS LIKE A WIDE
RANGE OF PRODUCTS TO CHOOSE
WHAT RURAL CONSUMERS WANT Super
category Category
No. of SKUs Handled per Store - MAT TY
36 CTs Off Premise
Rural Off Premise
Ratio Urban vs Rural
Homecare
Laundry 9.0 5.6 1.6
Dishwashing Liquid 5.4 3.7 1.5
Fabric Softener 11.8 7.8 1.5
Personal Care
Shampoo 20.8 14.0 1.5
Personal Wash 15.1 6.9 2.2
Hair Conditioner 6.4 4.2 1.5
Feminine Protection 9.4 4.3 2.2
Toothpaste 8.4 5.2 1.5
Toothbrush 4.5 2.7 2.2
Food MSG-Bouillon 7.3 5.8 1.5
Beverage
Energy Drink 4.2 3.4 2.2
RTD Tea 4.6 3.7 1.6
Soft Drink 10.3 6.0 1.2
Milk Based RTD Milk 16.0 9.8 1.3
Cigarette Cigarette 13.4 7.3 1.8
Average area of TGC
(m2)
Rural 27.4
Urban 36 CTs 23
URBAN RETAILERS HANDLE MORE SKUS THAN RURAL COUNTERPARTS
RURAL STORES IS LARGER THAN URBAN ONES
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WINNING RETAILERS’ HEART IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS
Source: Nielsen Rural Study 2014
90% retailers recommend
products to shoppers
31% shoppers buy products
that are recommended by retailers
27.5M shoppers receive
retailers’ recommendations daily
8.5M shoppers potentially
buying products because of retailers’ recommendations daily
RURAL RETAILER THE BOTTLE NECK
Rural retailers are a bottleneck not only for distribution, but also for consumer purchase decision
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT H1 2015
+6.28% vs YA
INFLATION H1 2015
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS LANDSCAPE
RURAL HIGHLIGHT
11/18 CATEGORIES GROW POSITIVELY
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Q2 2015
104
54% VALUE OF FMCG COMES FROM RURAL
OPPORTUNITY IN RURAL
+0.84% vs YA
TOTAL FMCG IN 6 KEY CITIES IN Q2’15 STAGNATES IN VOLUME GROWTH vs YA AFTER A PICK UP IN TET HOLIDAY RURAL SHOWS A BETTER MOMENTUM vs URBAN IN THE LAST 2 QUARTERS
HEALTH IS THE TOP CONSUMERS’ CONCERN
ECONOMY RANKS SECOND AND JOB SECURITY RANKS THIRD
• LIMITED JOB OPPORTUNITIES AND SEASONAL INCOME MAKE RURAL A CHALLENGING MARKET
• WORD OF MOUTH IS KEY TO SUCCESS IN RURAL
• WIN RURAL RETAILERS TO WIN IN RURAL
THANK YOU
APPENDIX
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26 Source: Vietnam General Statistic Office website (www. gso.gov.vn)
Note: (Average CPI YoY is considered inflation of the year
8.3 8.5
6.3 5.2
6.8 5.9
5.3 5.4 6.0
6.3
7.5 8.3
23.0
6.9
9.2
18.6
9.2
6.6
4.1 0.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
GDP Growth (%) Annual Average Inflation
*GDP 2015 Q2 = 6.44%
VIETNAM GDP GROWTH RATE AND ANNUAL AVERAGE INFLATION 2004 – 2015 H1
THE ECONOMY KEEPS UP THE GOOD MOMENTUM IN Q2’15
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-5.3%
4.0%
-7.4%
-1.0%
4.4% 5.0% 3.4%
3.4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
On Premise - 6 cities
Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago On-Premise Categories include Soft drinks, Gums, Beer, Energy Drinks, RTDM, RTDT, RTDC, Fruit Juice, Package Water, Sport Drinks and Cigarette Off -premise retrieved for all on-going tracking categories
ON PREMISE DRIVES RECENT FMCG GROWTH
2.6% 2.2%
-0.2% 1.0%
3.0%
1.1%
3.8% 0.8%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Off Premise - 6 cities
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS DYNAMICS – ON vs OFF PREMISE
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28 Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago (*): MT excludes Saigon Coopmart
Unite Value change Volume change Nominal growth
However, both channels declines after Tet holiday
10.3%
5.2%
20.1% 23.2%
2.1%
-0.1% 2.5%
2.3%
9.3%
6.2%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%MT 6 cities (excl. CIG) (*)
MT SHOWS A BETTER GROWTH THAN TT CHANNELS
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS DYNAMICS – MT vs TT
1.6% 1.8% 3.7%
2.1%
-0.5%
1.2%
3.1%
0.9%
3.0%
0.1%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%Traditional Trade Off 6 cities
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Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago Note : Categories retrieved for Rural: Personal Care (Shampoo, Hair Conditioner, Toilet Soap, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Feminine Protection); Household Care (Laundry, Dishwashing Liquid, Fabric Softener); Beverages (Soft Drink, Energy Drink, Packaged Water, RTD Tea, Sport Drink) ; Milk Base (RTD Milk, Sweet Condensed Milk); Food (MSG-Bouillon) and Cigarette
Unit Value change Volume change Nominal growth
Beverages Cigarettes Milk Base
CIGARETTE STARTED TO BOUNCE BACK
4.3%
-0.2%
-3.7% -4.4% -3.7% -1.2%
-1.8% 2.0%
7.2% 3.9%
7.6% 6.9%
-3.7%
2.7% 2.2% 3.2% 7.9%
4.5%
29% 31% 15%
SUPER CATEGORIES CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – TOTAL RURAL
RURAL
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Unit Value change Volume change Nominal growth
Food Household Care Personal Care
Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago Note : Categories retrieved for Rural: Personal Care (Shampoo, Hair Conditioner, Toilet Soap, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Feminine Protection); Household Care (Laundry, Dishwashing Liquid, Fabric Softener); Beverages (Soft Drink, Energy Drink, Packaged Water, RTD Tea, Sport Drink) ; Milk Base (RTD Milk, Sweet Condensed Milk); Food (MSG-Bouillon) and Cigarette
WHILE OTHER SUPER CATEGORIES SLOW DOWN
-14.0%
-7.8% -0.5%
-1.8% 2.8%
-2.6%
-15.4%
-10.3% -6.0%
-3.4% 7.7% 3.1%
-15.7% -14.1% -6.8%
-6.1%
6.8% 4.3%
9% 9% 7%
SUPER CATEGORIES CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – TOTAL RURAL
RURAL
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31 Source: Banners’ official website
Number of Store
ONLY SHOP&GO AND CIRCLE K MANAGE TO EXPAND NUMBER OF STORES
44
70
83 84 87 87
100 100 103
97 103
117
128
41
50
62
74
94 95 97 95 91
15 20
37 40
51 56
62
70
78
88
97 104
110
1 6
13
34
42 48
62 67 65
8 10 10
Shop & Go B's mart Circle K Family Mart Aeon Citimart B&B
CONVENIENCE STORES’ EXPANSION
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32 Source: Banners’ official website
Number of Store
WHILE MINIMART KEEPS EXPANDING TO SERVE VARIOUS CONSUMER NEEDS
FOOD STORES
HEALTH & BEAUTY STORES
15
27
51 53 55 57
70 72
79 83
87 87 89
0 5
18 19 23 24
32 35
39
45 45
52
60
8 8 8 12 12
16 16
22
31 33 35 39
0 4
16 17 18 18 18 18 21 23 25 27
30
Co.op Food Satra Food Medicare Guardian
MINIMARTS’ AND HEALTH & BEAUTY STORES’ EXPANSION
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
33
Number of Store
COOP, BIG C AND AEON CITIMART INCREASE THEIR NUMBER OF STORES STEADILY
Source: Banners’ official website
50
55
60 61 63
68 68 69 71 72
74 74
79
13 17
21 22 24 25 25 26
28 28 30 30 31
15 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 20
17 19 18
20
13 16
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
2 2 4 4
6 6 6 7 7 7 10 10 10
Co.op Mart Big C Aeon Citimart Metro Lotte Mart
SUPERMARKETS’ EXPANSION
