VI C. National Migration

[See text, Chapter 7, pp. 355-360 and 363-368.]

ECON 3508 November 2015

AgendaNational Migration

A. Why do People MigrateA. People’s Motivations

B. Underlying Forces

B. The Migratory ProcessA. Varieties of migration

C. The “Harris-Todaro Model” of Migration

D. Is Internal Migration Desirable?

E. Policy Implications

International Migration

A. Why do People Migrate

People’s Motivations :

Push factors: real income, security, opportunity:Environmental factors (drought, land degradation, salinization)

Population pressures on the land (excessive land fragmentation; land ownership patterns)

Political instability and civil conflict (e.g. Colombia)

Non-economic Factors: To break the bonds of traditional rural society

Pull factors: real income, security, opportunityUrban employment opportunities

Income possibilities

Urban amenities; water electricity, modern housing, quality of life, cultural

A. Why do People Migrate

Underlying Forces

– Structural Change

– Technological Change

– All factors affecting agriculture and rural development relative to urban development

– All factors affecting the location of economic activity

B. The Migratory Process

• Who Migrates?

• Varieties of Migration• Rural to urban• Rural to rural• Urban to urban• Urban to rural?• Seasonal• Commuting

Components of Migration in Selected Countries

C. The “Harris-Todaro Model” of Migration

Intuitive version or verbal version;– Migration is a rational decision– The decision depends on expected rather than actual

wage differentials– The probability of obtaining a city job is inversely

related to the urban unemployment rate– High rates of migration are outcomes of rural urban

imbalances

Graphical version: OMITTED

OMIT: The Graphical Model

Economic Implications of Migration– Accommodating structural change in an

economy– Permitting shifts from low to higher

productivity economic activities – Shifting of “surplus labour”– Relief of rural population pressures– Migrants are presumably better off and usually

or else they would return if they were not

– Socioeconomic costs on urban areas– Socioeconomic costs for areas of origin

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable?A. From the perspective of the migrants?

B. From a societal perspective?

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable?B. From a societal perspective NOTE: AN ECONOMIC ANALYISIS WOULD FOCUS ON

BOTH PRIVATE AND PUBLIC (OR SOCIAL) COSTS AND BENEFITS.

The Positives• Surplus labour leaves the land;

• Rural population pressures are relieved;

• Structural change in the economy is made possible;

• Higher productivity made possible in urban activities;

• Higher incomes for migrants

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable?

B. From a societal perspective?

The Negatives: Unemployment and underemployment in urban areas

Inundation of people into informal sector activities

Overcrowding & congestion;

Shanty-towns and inadequate housing;

Crime and social dysfunction?

Overburdened infrastructure

Increased taxes to accommodate new-comers

Higher costs of infrastructure as cities expand further

Environmental costs

D. Is Internal Migration Desirable? Cont’d:

• Rural-to-urban migration was viewed positively until recently

• The current view is that this migration is greater or more rapid than the urban areas’ abilities to– Create jobs

– Provide social services

• Therefore, slow down the migratory process in those countries where it is very rapid.

HOW?

E. Policy ImplicationsSlow down rural-urban migration. HOW?

• Create a better urban-rural balance; Reduce “Urban Bias”

– Eliminate all “biases” favouring large cities at the expense of small towns, rural areas and regions;

– Eliminate factor price distortions that favour “capital” industry and urban areas;

– Emphasize rural infrastructure

• Promote rural and regional development

– Expand small-scale, labor intensive industries in rural areas small towns and secondary cities;

– Broaden the economic base of rural areas; Programs of integrated rural development should be encouraged to generate rural jobs and higher incomes;

– Decentralize authority to cities, towns and neighborhoods;

F. Policy ImplicationsSlow down rural-urban migration. HOW? Cont’d

• Choose appropriate labor-intensive technologies of production where possible;

• Modify carefully the linkage between education and employment;

• Reduce population growth;

• Urban job creation is insufficient for reducing urban unemployment;

– Improve rural incomes and jobs as well

– Urban wage subsidies can be counterproductive, merely inducing more migration and unemployment

– Avoid “Induced Migration” by trying to create urban jobs while neglecting rural areas;

International Migration

NOTE: This topic is deleted due to a lack of time. If you would like to examine it yourself, please see the World Mogration Rewport, 2015 here: World Migration Report 2015 – Migrants World Migration Report 2015 – Migrants and Cities: New Partnerships to Manage Mobilityand Cities: New Partnerships to Manage Mobility