vehicle emission status and roadmap standard
TRANSCRIPT
Contact => KPBB:Sarinah Building 12th Floor, Jalan MH Thamrin # 11 Jakarta Indonesia 10350Phone: +62-21-3190 6807 Fax: +62-21-315 3401e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected], www.kpbb.org
Better Air Quality - Sustainable Transport Solution for the City13 November 2018Borneo Convention Centre Kuching Sarawak, Malaysia
Vehicle Emission StandardVehicle Emission Standard
Status and roadmap
in IndonesiaAhmad Safrudin - KPBB
Motor Vehicle Growth
Total Sales (2017): 1.1 mil units of car and 7 mil units of motor cycle p.a.
Global Vehicle Sales, 2016
Total sales of motor cycle, passenger car, bus, and truck
Share Gasoline vs Diesel Car
Growth of Vehicle Number and forecasting up to 2030
Best method : ARIMA(1,2,1) Best method : ARIMA(1,2,1)
Error measure (RMSE) : 232634.60 Error measure (RMSE) : 176449.44
Best method : ARIMA(2,2,1) Best method : Double Exponential Smoothing
Error measure (RMSE) : 69296.34 Error measure (RMSE) : 787400.81
Source : CBA Fuel Economy in Indonesia, USEPA-UNEP-KLH-KPBB, 2012
Nat’l total selling: 1.1 million cars, and 7 million motor cycles, p.a.Nat’l total population: ~ 22 million cars and 65 million of motor cycles, 2016
Status Fuel Economy
L/1
00
KM
118 grCO2/Km
NDC - Indonesia Nationally Determined Contributions
2020 – 2030Based on Paris Agreement Dec 2015
• Indonesia commitment
on COP 21 - UNFCCC =>
NDC
• To reduce GHG 29%
(unconditional) to 41%
(conditional) with
baseline on BAU GHG in
2030 ~2.82 GtonCO2e.
• Sectors: Energy (include
transportation), LULUCF,
IPPU, Agriculture, and
Waste.
GHG mitigation needs to be elaborated to implement Paris Agreement => include sub-sector transportation
Road Transportation Emission (Gton CO2e)
0.173 GtonCO2e (2017)
200 gr/km of CO2
LCEV: technology-mix approach (ICE improvement tech, flexi-Car, EV)options with tax feebate/rebate scheme base on grCO2/km level.
2011 2012 2013 2020 20252030LCEV Technology:
• EV (BEV, PEV, FCEV, trolley
bus/pantograph EV)
• Hybrid (HEV, PHEV)
• ICE:
• Tech improvement
• Flexicar Tech/biofuels
• CNG/LGV/LNG
LCGCCV Based
PlatformSpesification Tax Incentive
• Fuel Economy
3.57L/100Km
• CO2 emission 85
gr/km
• Discount Luxury Goods Tax
• Vehicle Tax (excise)
Feebate/Rebate base on Carbon
Emission Level
• Fuels Excise base on Carbon
Emission Index
Spesification Tax Incentive
• Fuel Economy
5L/100 Km
• CO2 emission
118 gr/km
• Discount Luxury Goods Tax
• Vehicle Tax (excise) Feebate/Rebate base on
Carbon Emission Level
• Fuels Excise base on Carbon Emission Index
Spesification Tax Incentive
• Fuel Economy 5L/100
Km
• CO2 emission 118
gr/km
100% Disccount Luxury
Goods Tax
Status1. Presidential Decree (Perpres No 22/2017) toward National Energy Planning mandates to formulate Fuel
Economy Standard and implemented by 2020.2. Government Decree No 41/2013 mandates to adopt LCEV3. Policy option on LCEV:
• LCEV Technology: direct leapfrog to EV versus technology-mix approach (ICE improvement tech, flexiCar, EV)
• Fiscal incentive: discounted luxury goods VAT versus Carbon Excise with feebate/rebate scheme • To reform Government Regulation PP No 41/2013 toward Luxury Goods VAT mandates to adopt
LCEV with discounted luxury goods VAT• Non fiscal incentive => Market base incentive:
• Fuel Economy Labeling• Shifting urban mobility to mass public transport and non motorized mobility (walking and cycling).• Scraped Car.
Fuel Economy RoadmapAnd Carbon Tax scheme
LCEV
LCEV
Technology-mix Approach –GtonCO2e Reduction Road-transportation
❑ National Green House Gas BAU 2030 ~ 2.82 GtonCO2e❑ Road-transportation will share 0.470 GtonCO2e
(16.66%):❑ 0.212 GtonCO2e Gasoline❑ 0.257 GtonCO2e Diesel
❑ Scenario Fuel Economy Standard or Low Carbon:❑ 2012 (applied)
❑ 9.34 L/100 Km ~ 219.96 grCO2/Km Gasoline❑ 8.33 L/100 Km ~ 216.99 grCO2/Km Diesel
❑ 2020❑ 5 L/100 Km ~ 117.75 grCO2/Km Gasoline❑ 5 L/100 Km ~ 130.25 grCO2/Km Diesel
❑ 2025❑ 3.57 L/100 Km ~ 84.07 grCO2/Km Gasoline❑ 3.57 L/100 Km ~ 92.99 grCO2/Km Diesel
❑ Total reduction by above-mentioned scenario (2030) is 0.280 GtonCO2e or 59% of BAU:❑ > target NDC (41%)❑ Improve competitive advantage of nat’l auto industry at
regional/global market (4.4 L/100 Km). ❑ Equal to fuel saving by 59.86 million KL p.a. Gasoline,
and 56.00 million KL p.a. Diesel Fuel on 2030 ~ Rp 677 trillions.
Vehicle Emission StandardLocal Air Pollution: PM, CO, HC, NOx, SOx, O3, Heavy Metal (Pb, Mn, Fe)
• Euro 2 (2005)• Euro 3 (2013) motorcycle only• Euro 4 (2018) gasoline car• (2021) diesel car
Cost Benefit and EffectiveVehicle Emission Standard
20015-2030
Cost Benefit Cost Effective
• Implementing Vehicle Emission Standard/Euro 4 by 2021 (Option 1) would be gain Total Economic Benefit IDR 1,970 T (health cost, production saving and fuel saving).
• Acceleration on implementing Euro 4 Standard by 2016 (Option 9) would be improve double Total Economic Benefit to be IDR 3,973 T and cut the cost of emissions reduction by 21.30%.
Gasoline - Series RON
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Chart Title
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Gasoline - Series Sulfur
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Diesel Fuel 48 - Series Cetane Index
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Standar Nasional
Diesel Fuel 48 - Series Sulfur
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Standar
Nasional
Euro 4 Standard
Scenario Local Air Pollution ReductionVehicle Emission Standard Roadmap
Euro 2 Vehicle Emission Standard (2007), Euro 4 (2018), Euro 6 (2021)
Consist on applied Vehicle Emission Standard: Euro 2 (2007), Euro 4 (2018), Euro 6 (2021) will reduce total emission load of PM, HC, CO, NOx, SOx
by ~ 65%, 70%, 55%, 75%, 60% on 2030 respectively
Scenario Local Air Pollution Reduction2
Vehicle Emission Standard RoadmapEuro 2 Vehicle Emission Standard (2007), Euro 4 (2018), Euro 6 (2021)
Conclusion and Recommendation1. Indonesia is an emerging market for automotive, event though it is necessity to adopt
lower emission vehicle (LEV) and low carbon emission vehicle (LCEV) to control air pollution and CO2.
2. Economic Benefit of LEV and LCEV:– Adopt Vehicle Emission Standard: Euro 2 (2007), Euro 4 (2018), Euro 6 (2021) consistently will be reduce
total emission load PM, HC, CO, NOx, SOx and gain economic benefit at least IDR 3,973 T through fuel efficiency, production saving and public health improvement.
– Adopt fuel economy standard/low carbon emission vehicle: 5L/100 Km (2020) dan 3.57L/100 Km (2025) will be reduce 0.28 GtonCO2e atau 59% road transport emission, and gain economic benefit IDR 4,444 T on 2030 through fuel efficiency, production saving and public health improvement.
3. Urban life style – green mobility needs to be implemented parallel to technological approach :– Shifting to Mass Public Transport and Non Motorized Mobility (walkability city, TOD, cycling), gain
economic benefit IDR 3,566 T (2030).– Scraped Car, gain economic benefit IDR 2,077 T (2030).– Infrastructure Improvement (appropriate road, traffic management)
4. Legal binding the roadmap on Vehicle Emission Standard and Low Carbon Emission Vehicle Standard as guideline to adopt its all potential technology option.
5. International collaboration to set up co benefit on air quality improvement and greenhouse gas.
TerimakasihAhmad Safrudin
Contact => KPBB:Sarinah Building 12th Floor, Jalan MH Thamrin # 11 Jakarta Indonesia 10350
Phone: +62-21-3190 6807 Fax: +62-21-315 3401Mobile: +62 816897959 (WA, Line)
Skype: a_safrudinTwitter: @Mas_Puput
FB: Ahmad Safrudine-mail: [email protected]; [email protected], www.kpbb.org