,.

VALUE LINE FORECASTS VERSUSOTHER ANALYSTS' FORECASTS

Eugene F. Brigham and Steve R. Vinson

Public Utility Research CenterUniversity of Florida

October 1980

Value Line provides both historical and projected

data on a large number of companies, and these data are

widely used in financial studies. For example, both

Malkiel and. Brigham & Shame, in their risk premium papers,

used Value Line forecasts for the Dow-Jones stocks as a

basis for some of their reported risk premiums. l ~owever,

as both Malkiel and Brigham/Shame acknowledge, the accuracy

of these risk premiums depends upon whether or not the.-

Value Line forecasts are representative of the views of

most investors.

The accuracy of the Value Line forecasts versus

projections based on time series data were studied exten-

sively by Brown and Rozeff, who concluded that the

Value Line analysts were clearly and definitely able to

produce better forecasts, based on both historical data

and information on such things as rate case status, than

could be made based on historical data alone: 2

"The very general .•• analysts' superiority."(Page 12)

It ••• our evidence of analyst superiority overtime series models means that analysts' fore­casts should be used in studies of • • • costof capital until forecasts superior to thoseof analysts are found." (Page 14)

1BurtonG. Malkie1. "The Capital Formation Problem in theUnited States," Journal of Finance, May 1979. pages 291-306.Eugene F. Brigham and Dilip K. Shame. "The Risk PremiumApproach to Estimating the Cost of common Equity Capital,"paper presented at the Iowa State Regulatory Conference, May 1980.

2L • D. Brown andM. S. Rozeff. "The Superiority of AnalystForecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings,"Journal of Finance, March 1978.

-2-

Brown and Rozeff's work suggests that Value Line

forecasts are better than time series projections, but

the question of the consistency between Value Line and

other analysts remains. This paper deals with that issue.

We compared Value Line's earnings per share forecasts

with the EPS forecasts of other investment advisory services

as reported in the Standard & Poor's Earnings Forecaster of

October 10, 1980. The Earnings Forecaster is a compilation

of EPS forecasts fOJ;.publicly traded firms. S&P obtains

these forecasts from 57 different national and regional

investment advisory firms. While all investment services

do not make forecasts for each and every stock, there is

generally a representative sample.

We compared Value Line's most recent EPS forecast

to those contained in the Earnings Forecaster for companies

in the Dow-Jones 29 Industrials, the Dow-Jones 11 Electrics,

American Telephone and Telegraph, and General Public Utilities.

Our sample companies provided.us with 189 paired comparisons

between Value Line and other forecasters. The results are

shown in Table 1. Based on this sample result, Value

Line's forecasts appear to be, on average, very much in

line with the forecasts of others.

As an example of how the comparisons were made,

consider the AT&T results. From Page 3 of Exhibit 1,

-3-

TABLE 1

VALUE LINE FORECASTS VERSUS THOSE OF OTHER ANALYSTS

Value Line's EPS forecastwas less than those of otheranalysts

Value Line's EPS forecastwas greater than those ofother analysts

Value Line's EPS forecastwas equal to those ofother analysts

Total comparisons

Number

80

81

28

189

Percent

42.3%

42.9

14.8

100.0%

-4-

we obtain the forecasts of these organizations:

Bache, Halsey, Stuart, ShieldsD. A. Davidson & CompanyE~ F. Hutton & Companyunited Business ServicesStandard and Poor's

From Page 1 of Exhibit 2 we obtain Value Line's forecast.

The results are shown in Table 2. As this table shows,

for AT&T we have eight paired comparisons between Value

Line and the other services. In seven of these comparisons,

Value Line forecasts "a lower EPS than do the others.

In one case, (D. A. Davidson for 1980), Value Line has

the same forecast. This same procedure was applied to

companies in the Dow-Jones 29 Industrials, the

Dow--Jones 11 Electrics, and General Public Utilities

to obtain the results given earlier in Table 1.

-5-

TABLE 2

A COMPARISON OF VALUE LINE'S FORECASTS FOR AT&T WITHTHOSE OF OTHER ANALYSTS

AT&T EPS FORECASTS FOR 1980

Bache, Halsey, Stuart, Shields

D. A. Davidson & Company

E. F. Hutton &.~ompany

United Business Services

Standard & Poor's

VALUE LINE

AT&T BPS FORECASTS FOR 1981

Bache, "Halsey, Stuart, Shields

D.A. Davidson & Company

Standard & Poor's

VALUE LINE

$8.00 .

7.90

8.15

8.00

8.05

$8.45

8.25

8.50

$7.90

$7.70

Exhibit 1Page 1 of 4

OCTOBER· 10,1980

CUMULATIVE MASTER-LIST

• STANDARD & POOR'S

··EARNIN.GSFORECASTER

PUBLISHED WEEKI.Y (USPS517-640)

Devoted

to providing

,," cr fLGR1 D.4 • ,the financial community

~."'.".. .. </,'j..~"c..' . ~; .... '-

:q.....J . ~i' .\ "th·~,. ~WI

I:.:~'~"" " ', ",'" ," ~~~~,\_

i=:§t· . \U)\

f f ~OCTa3 1900 al cprrent report\ \ "\\.. , . }:Jea.rnings estima.tes

" .~ "." -...... ~~'~ I d"..........~\\,J' ..y £la Ino..... '" t~ S.:.\.J .\- 0

....-.:." - ,.

investment organizations

1 ?:;. • c., ") /': 1.-..-.,.Jv -' -.- ....,J v"'

-~ .. ... _ Vol. 14, No. 41'. ",.. '}t?S-s

{Reference to ;$'$VM dated Sept. 26, 1980·& Ode 3, 1980 is no longer necessary) 1 Section. Section 1

5TANDARD & POOR'S EARNINGS FORECASTER

THIS \VEEK'$ 1980 ESTIMATE CHANGES (§ denotes 1981 Estimates)Chang.es .\le been incorporated in Master List

Page 2 of 4

5

--AODITIONS--

Company Estimate ($)

---ADDITIONS---Contributor Company Estimate ($) Contributor

t3.154.25

13.25. to.50

4.5515.5512.90

§03.002.90

IQ3.7511.50f4.7011.20t2.60t4.0014.5011.35t3.45to.90f3.70• 2.5002.95

• <;4.2515.01)~5.96

.6.. 001.40/1.50

2.00U.20

1.30,1.30

KANEB SERVICESKERR-MCGEEKIDDE INC

LEGGETT & PL.l\TTLIBERTY KATL LIFE INSLOUISIA~A LANO/E~P

MADISON GAS & ELECMARATHON OIL~o!ARLEY COt"AYER (OSCAP) r, CO

Mel COMMUNICATIONS

r4EENAN OIL~ERRILL LY~H

MESA PETROLEUM:-U~ STEAl'.:NL INDUS

~OB~E AFFILIATESOCE~N DRILL & EXPLPAPERC~AFT CORPPARiCER DRILUNGPAYLESS CA$RWAYSPIO~:EER CORPPROPRIETCRSCORPPUPITAN-EENNETTRE.l\:)ING & BATES

RIVAL MFGROWAN COSRTE CORPRUSSELL COP?RUSSELL STOV CANDIESS!\NTA FE INT'L

SCHLU~BERGEP., LTD

SE.ISCOMDELTA

SIKES CORP CL A

SIL'!EC CCRP

~3.00 Robert W. Baird & Co.~7.50 St~ndard & Poor's07.25 Butcher & Singer~08.10 Butcher & Singer~1.50 B. C. Christopher & Co.~3.80 sterne,Agee & Leach,f5.25 Standard & Poor'st2.20 Robert ~. Baird & Co.t8.50 star.dard & Poor·st3.50 B. C. Christopher & Co.

1.f-O COmpany Officialt2.25/2.50 Company OfficialO.~O Rauscher Pierce Securities

CorpD~tcher & Singerunited Business ServoSta~dard & Poor'sD.A.Da~idson & Co•~~tcher & SingerB'.1tcher & Singer'Robert w. Baird & Co.Robert W. Baird & Co.Butcher & Sir.qerunited Business ServoB. c. Christopher & Co.Standard & Poor '.$

Robert W. Baird & Co.B. C. Christepb,er & Co.Robert w. Baird & Co.Standard & POQr'sB. C. Christopher & Co.Robert W. Baird &co.Robert W. Baird & Co.Sterne,Agee &.Leach,B. C. christopher & co..RobertW. Baird & Co ..Robert W. Baird & Co•standard 8 Poor'sRobert W. Baird SCo.Standard & Poor'sRauscher Pierce securities

Corp -RaY8~nd,James& Associates,Raymond,James& Associates,Shearson,Loeb Rhoades,Shearson,~oeb Rhoades,

SMITH (A.C.) COPPSMlTH :IN'I'L

SOUTHERN BANCORP (ALA)SO'N NAtt RESOURCES

STANDARD OIL OF CALSTANilARD OIL OH:IOSTERLU;G DRU~

S~AWBRIDGE/CLOTRIER

SUI,LAIR CORP

SUN CO :I!\CSONAIR ELECTRONICSTAt-.'DY CORP

TAYLOR RENTALTEXAS EAST-N CORPTHIO.KOL CORPTIME n.cTR.~OR I~

TRANSCO COSmlION O:IL OF CAL.IFUNITED EnRGY RiSUNITED TELECOM (Y.AN)

UNIVER SAL FOODSVEECO n!S'l'RUM~N?S

VULCAN MATERIALS

WAP.N'EP. .EUC BRAKEW£I:Gif-TRCt-lIX,INCWENOY·S INT'LWESTIN CASUALTY& SORWESTERN CO NO AMSR

WEYEtlBERG SHOE MFGwlcoa, I:;CWISCOUSUiPUBLIC SVWOLVERI~E WORLDWIDEYELLOw FREI::;aT •. SYS

t2.2~

t4.~5

~4.00

f2.t'0,1.0016.60

f13.SIJ:f8.50t2.20t5.50

2.70~3. 30t2.85.7.75

2.1014.90

.2.85t9.35t3.60t6.00

2.55

t5.00.4.50§6.(\0

'Q2.6S2.60

.,.801.655. SO

,6. SO,4.45fl.15f2.25t8.00+2.9513.25~1.ln

f3.10+3.00f3.50f2.00

Rotert w.. r:aird &Co~

Robert w. Satrd & Co.Standard & ?oor' sSterne,Agee ~ Leach,Sterne,Agee & Leach,Standard & Poor'sStandard & Poor'sStandard & Poor'sButcher & SingerNewcold's (~;.H.)Son & Co••

IncB. C.Christopher & Co.8. C. Christopher & Co..Shearson,Loeb Rhoa:ies,Standard SPoor'sRaymond,J'Cimes & Associat.es,Rauscher Pierce Securities .

CorpD.A.DaVidson & Co.Standard & Poor'sButcher & SingerUnited !usiness ServoRauscher P:'erce securities

CorpStandard & Poor'sS~andard ~ ~oor's

Standard & Poor'sB. C. Christopher & Co.Rauscher Pierce Securities

CoreRocert R. Baird & Co.Butcher & SingerSterne,Agee & Leach,Sterne.,Agee & Leach,Robert w.eaird (; Co•B. C. ChristoFher & Co.Robert W. Eaird t Co.B. C. Christopher & Co.Robert ~. Faird & Co.Standard &i>oor'sRobert .,,:. I:aird t Co.P.ocert w•. faird to Co.PocertW. faird & Co.E. C. Chr:'st.opher & Co.B. C.Christopher & eo.

Q-FUllY DilUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE. §-1981. ESTIMATE. OTHER SYMBOLS SEe JNStDE·FRONT.COVER.

----.CONTRIBUTORS TO THE EARNINGS FORECASTER----

Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder, Inc., New York, New YorkBache Halsey Stuart Shieldslnc.~New York, N.Y.

.Bacon, \Vhipple & Co., Chicago, Ill.Robert W. Baird & Co.~ Milwaukee, \Vis.Baker, \VaUs & Co., Baltimore, Md~Bateman Eichler, Hill Richards, Los Angeles. Calif.J. C.Bradford & CO.t Nashville. Tenn.Rutcher. & Singer Inc., Philadelphia, Pa.The Chicago Corp., Chicago, Ill.B. C. Christopher & CO.t Kansas City, Mo.Company.officialCimarron Research. Dallas. Tex.Craig-Hallum, Inc.• Minneapolis, Minnt:sotaD. A. David30n at Co., Great FaUs, Mont.Drysdale Securities Corp., New York, N.Y.A.G. Edward &50ns, St.Louis. Mo.Frederick Research Corp., New York, N.Y.Gruntal& Co., New York,N~Y.

Herzfeld & Ster." N~-:w York, N.Y.J. J. B. Hilliant-\'\!. 1... Lyons., Inc., Louisville, Ky.Hopper Soliday &: Co.• Philadelphia, Pa.Howard. Weil, Lab.1uisse, Freidrichs, Inc., New Orleans. La.E. f. Hulton & Co., New York,N.Y.Interstate Securitiea Corp., Charlotte, N.C.Josephthal &. Co., New York, N.Y.

. laidlaw. Adams&. Peck Inc., New York. N..Y.Legg Mason Wood Waiker Inc., BaIt., Md.

A. E. Masten &. Co.~· Pittsburgh, PawMoore, Leonard & Lynch, Pittsburgh, PawMoore &.Schley.Cameron&. Co., New York, N.Y•Morgan. Keegan & ~o., Memphis, Tenn.Morgan, Olmstead. Kennedy & Gardner, Inc., Los Angeles. Calif.John Muir &. Co., New York, N.Y.Newbold's f\V.H.) Son &. Co., Inc., Philadelphia, Paw

.Newhard, Cook & Co., St. Louis, Mo.Oberweis Securitiest Inc., Aurora, ilLThe Ohio Co., Columbus. OhioPiper, Jaffray & Hopwood, Inc." Minneapolis, Minn.Rauscher Pierce Refsnes, Inc., Dallas, Tex..Raymond, James & AssoCiates, Inc., St. Petersburg, Fla.\Vm. C.Roney & Co., Detroit. fvlich.Salkin Welch & Co., Inc., Lutherville. Md.Savings &. Loan Investor•. Long Beach, Calif.

. Schacnen, FeUerman, Peck & Co., New York,-N.Y.Scott & Stringfellow, Inc., Richmond, Va.Shearson, Loeb Rhoades, Inc.,· New York, N.Y.Standard & Poor's· Corp.,. New York, N.Y.Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., Birmingham, Ala.Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc.• St.L()uts~Mo.Sutro .&. .Co., Los Angeles, Calif.Thomson McKinnof) Securities Inc., New York~ N.Y.United Business Serv.~ Boston. Mass.Wheat, First Securities, Inc., Richmond. Va.WiUametteManagement AssociatC$. Inc~, Portland. Ore.

51ANDARD & POOR'S EARNINGS FORECASTER 7CO,~PANY &. FISCAL YEAR

ESTIMATOR

APPX. PIEPRICE S RATIO

I EST.DATE

-EARNINGS PER SHARE $-.0.1979 E1980 E1981

COMPANY 8. FISCAL YEAR

ESTIMATOR

APPX. PIEPRICE S RATIO Page 3 of 4

I eST. I -EARNINGS PER SHARf S-DATE .0.1979 E1980 El981

.~~RACA HESS(Qe~) 37 6BdC'n~ HalseySt,uart Shields Jun 23Gru~~al & Co Jul 24Shearscn,Loeb Rhoades, Aug 6

6.0136.005.756.60

6.00

6.75

-A.P.tER BOIST/DElUUCK(NoV) 21

Josetrithal & CO.,Piper,Jaffray & Hopwood ..

7

Aug 26Sep 8

3.6003.13

03.1303.CO

>A=-1EiUC.!\N AGRONOMICS (tIOv) 11 19 0.35Raymond,James & Associates, Sep 18

-AMERICAN AIRLINES(~e) 8 w1 xl.26Shears~,Loeb Rr..:.ades, Aug 6Wheat .. First Securi'ues, Jul 22

11<; $1.37, '79

AMEH ?~ & TRUST CO PA(Dec) 15"cpper Soliday & Co. Aug 20

AMER EA~<ERS 1:-1" FLA (Dec) 7John Muir & Co Sep 18

5

5

02.65

00.60

d2.00dl.10

2.90

1.60

1.00dl.50

2.00

-A.~R HO~E pl\ooucrs (Dec) 30A. G. Edwards & SonsShearson.,Loeb Rhoades,Thomson MCKinnon SecuritiesUnited Business ServoStandard & Poor's

-AMER HOSPITAL SUP (Dec) 1J5A.G. ECwards & SonsShearscr.,Loeb Rhoades,Thomson McKinnon SecuritiesUnited Business ServeStcU1dard & Poor's

11Jal 11Aug 6Aug 26OCt 6

•If.J

Jul 11Aug 6Jul 9OCt 6

'"

2.51

2.78

2.802.80

, Z'.852.802.75

3.103.252.853.253.20

3.153.20

-.\MER. SI.:JG M.!\INTEN (OCt) 17Sutro & Co. Sep 2

-AMZ;R SaCAOCASTUJG (Dec) 35B4che Halsey Stuart Shields Jun 23Standard & Poor's •

-i\MUrCAN CAN(Dec) 33O.A.Oavidson& Co.StandardS Poor·s

~w SO. 26, '79

>A:~?. BUSINESS PPOD(Oec) 14!.F.Sutton & Co,Morqan,F.eeqan & Co.~h~at,First~curities,

2.75

Q8.758.85

01&.004.00

Q4.003.85

2.25

1.00

0.60

1.4007.30

7.407.40

P3.170:'3.00

1.50

2.59

w6.17

S1.07

wsl.65

Sep 15Sep 1SS~p 2

•

20Aug 14

Sep 18

11Auq 21Sep 18Aug 6

•

56 14

24 24Jul 23

AMERICA!\ MICROSYS (Dec)E.~.Hutton & eo,

-A.-..ER MECJ:CA.I. INT'L (Aug)

Bateman Eichler, HillRichards

J. C. Eradford & Co.Sutro & CO.Standard & Poor's

MER ItIn GaOUP(Dec) 18Laidlalo>,AdamS& PeekJohn Muir &. CoShearscn,I.oebRhoades,Standard & Poor·s

AMER INaA~ LIEEINS(Dec)15John Muir & Co

• AMERICAN INVES'fMEN'l' (DeC) 12A.G. Edwards & Sons

2.75

6.00

2.50

5.805.30

5.255.50,_

2.002.152.25

013.00013.00

12.85

1.92

6

7

7 2.24

7 5.67

6 2wl0.96

Jul 23Sep 18Jul 22

Sep 18

*

Aug 20Jul 23Aug 25

82• AH1!RIC.!\N 9AANDS (DectHopper Soliday & Co.E.F .Eutton & Co,United Business servo2,., Sl.Cf.J,'79

5 Pl.63OP1.57

·~~£RICA~ CYANA~ID{Oec) 28 8Bache Ealsey Stuart Shields Jul 4Pi~e:,Jaffray& Hopwood, Sep 8uni-cedBusinessserv. Jul14Standard & Poor's *

;\;.tERGREETINGSU'eiJ) ,.; 7I!'\che Ealsey StU.:lt't:: Shielcs Sep 1D.A.Davidson& Co. Sep 18~e·oIbold·s('ti.H.}Son··6Cu.,I~ Sq ~

Thomson McK~nnor.SecuritiE'S Aug 62.65

8.458.25

8.50

6.70

11.5~

05.00

01.25dl.0t:'

1.35

2.302.15

6.20

8.007.908.158.008.05

4.75

10.7510.30

4.00Q3.10

d4.00ci4.00d4.75

1.18

2.11

8.04

9.52

3.1603.01

0.70 0.80

0.25

4w5.134.55/4.60 6.00/6.10

5.006.CO4.5Q 6.255.. 10 5.90/6.00

82.24052.07

xS.76Ox5.74

5

6

6

7

6

9

60

Sep 22Sep 3

Aug 28Sep 18Jul 23OCt 6

•

Sep 18

Sep8

Aug 28Aug 6Sep 2,.

Jul 23Auq 6,.

8

5

Aug 25

30 1lJSep 18Jut 2-

18 5

70 7Oct 2

•

savings & Loan InvestorShearscn,Loeb Rhoades,

h~ER UNDERWRITERS(Oec)8acon, ~hipple& co.

E. F.Hutton & CO,Shearscn,Loeb P.hoades ..Standard & Poor's

United Business Sexy.

-A.MI:: TEK, I NC (Dec)Eacon, Whi~ple & co.Gruntal& Co

-1\.~ES DEPT STORES (.:Jan,

AME~:::CrlN SECURITY CORP(Dec) 33Whe~t,First Securiti~s, Jul 22

AMER QUASAR PETROLEUM (DeC) 42Rauscher Pierce SecuritiesCor~sep29

-.a.MER SV & LN lFI..!\) (Sep) 22

.~~E?!CA~ STA~DARO(Dec)

t!utcher &:iingerStandard & Poor's

-AMERICAN MOTORS(Sep)

-<\MER NAtuRAL RES. (Dec) 45Bache Halsey Stu~rt ShieldsShearson,Loeb Rhoades,Sutrc & Co.Standard & Poor's

4W $1 •. 34, '79

2.40

2.25

-A,,"iERICAN STCRES(Jant 29___ I p!pcr,Jaffray & HOpwood ..

[

.lU'lERICAt' TEL & TEL(Dec} 53

4. as ..••.. .0.d'.(",~t•.e Halse.y

.,5. t.ua.(t ShieldsD.A.Davidson&Co.E • .lo'.t1utton & Co,

1.00,\\., United Business Servo.. ,; Standard & Poor's

3.75

3.35

6.006.00

Q6.25

'2.402.40

02.25Q1.80

4.83

2.102.00

2.00Z.05

0.75

2.002.40

5.355.255.205.35

4.35

2.753.00

2.70

2.352.352.40

<16.00Q6.5U6.60

1.88

2.73

3.523.25/3.30

3.';03.603.00

2.29

'-'2.43

\.6.f.0Qwo ,14

4

6

7

7Aug 21Sep 18Aug 25

•

Aug 6Jut 22

•

Sep 15

8

10Jul 23Aug 22

8 ,.Jul 23Aug 21

38

B~(::.~Hdlsey St.",,-.n: 5hields Jun 23L·.li:jlaw, Ad<a:n~,~ 1,.'t:X: l,uq 2'Standard & Poor's *

M1!'::f> FLETCHER C(~~? (:h:c; 17Hilliard-Lyon!;, Sep 15

A."I~iHCAN FIL'!'RONA(I)~c.) 12~hA.itt,First Securities, Jul 22

.\t·WI<ICAN FURNI'l'tlf<e(NOv) 5h~:P.dt, F!rst Secut:ities, Jul 22

•.\~!::~ GEN'L CORP fO.,..C) 4{\

·A.":'l'. FA~ILY COp-Ppec)E~E.Hutton& Co,L~idl~w,Adams & Peck

Bateman Eichler, HillRichards

AM~ CITY BANK L.A. (Dec) 8

,.;~"ia:P. ELEC'!PIC PWR (Dec' 18Shearson .. Loeb Rhoades,Hheat .. i'irst secudties..sta~ddrd t Poor's

··A~RICAN EXPR:::SS (Dee)r,..).idlaw, Adams & PeckJ.)h~ ~ui r & COUr.ited Business ~rv.

St·:m<'!.:Jrd & Poo;!" S

a;~~R DIS':P.ICT '!'!:'LEG(Oec' 28z.F.Huttcn & Co,.:Joseph thal & Co.,

APPX. PIePRICE S RATIO Page 4 of 4

I EST. -EARNINGS PER SHARE S-DATE Al979 El980 E1981

ESTiMATOR

COMPANY 8. FISCAL YEAR

STANDARD & POOR'S EARNINtiS tUKt:<..A::>i tKAPPX. PIE

PRICE S RATIO

I esT. 11 -EARNINGS PER SHARE S-DATE Al979 E1980 El981

CO."\PANY 8. FISCAL YcAR

ESTIMATO~

16 4 w4.Q1Qw3.10

28 2~ 0.92Aug 6

2.252.75

E.5C

E.• 95

7.SC;

13.50

Q5. 7 5

Q2.• 75

11.50Q12.0Oc

11.5')

C.85o.eo

5.00

5.005.50

~.oo

5.005.25

04.~O

C;.lC

5.10

05.255.00

Q1.8502.35Q2.30

2.10

dO.05'dO.lS

11 ... 00

10.00Q1'.20

10.50

1.531.70/1.15

1.70

1.05

4.00'3.80

_ 03.90/4.00 4.40/4.5~

03.95

2.502.502.'52.~O

3.95 4.45/l.10 4.60/4.'=4.00

1.45

3.52

0.68

7.34

2.12

4.71Q4.1&3

3.12Q3.C3 .

06.14

3.6603.55.

sl.31

4.2003.96

~a3.50

9

12

27

Sep 22Sep 3

9

7

20

Aug 6Aug 1

21

Sep 17

sep 15Aug 6

*

13

sep 29Aug 6

9

sep 24

Sep 15Sep 15

Jul 7

25Sep 18Sep 2

Jul 23Aug 6OCt 6

•

Aug 14

Aug 6OCt 6

*

Aug 215ep 18

9

93

52

29 12Jul 23Aug 6oct 6

•

D.A.~avidson & Co. Sep 18E.F.Hutton & CO, Jul 23Thomson MCKinnon Securlties AueJ 4Standard & Poor's *

GENERAL REINSURANCE(Dec) 58Laidlaw,Adams & PeckJohn. Muir & Co

GEN' L SEMICONDUCTOR (Nov) 20Cimarren ResearchFrederick Research

E.F.Hutton & CO"Shearscn"Loeb Rhoades"united 2Usiness serv.Standard & Poor's

Robert W. 2aird & Co.2ateman Eichler" Hill

RichardsHilliard-Lyons"MOore &. Sehle.y, Cameron

& Co.Rauscher Pierce Securities

Cort:Shearscn,Loeb Rhoades,

-GIBRALTAR FIN-L CAL (Dec) 10savings & LOd.n Ir.,vestorShearscn,Loec Rhoades,

-GETTY OIL (Dec)Arnhold and· S.

Bleichroeder,·BatelJ'an Eichler, Hill

RichardsShearscn,Loeb Rhoades,Standard & Poor's

-GERBER SCIENTIFIC (Apr)Shearsen,Loeb Rhoades,Wneat"First securities"4w~O~03,'SO '$w SO.21,'79

-GIDDINGS & LEWIS(DeC) 36

Bache Halsey Stuart Shields Sep 25Robert W. Baixd & Co. Sep 24COMJ;anyofficial Sepl1Shearscn, Loeb Rhoades, Aug 6Standard & Poor's -

-GEORGIA-PACIFIC (Dec) 27

-GEOSOURCE INC (sep) 101

-GENUINE PARTS (DeC)E.F.Hutton & CO"Shears¢n"Loeb Rhoades"united Businessserv.Standazd & Poor'S

-GENElU\L STEEL IND(Dec)A.G. Edwards & Sons

-GENERAL SIGNAL(Dec)Shearscn,Loeb Rhoades~

United Business ServoStandard & Poor's

-GENtL TIRE & RUBBER(NOV) 20Standard & Poor's

:Sa SO.06" '79

GENRAD, INC(Dec) 28 17Shearscn,Loeb Rhoades, seo 3Thomson McKinnon securities Jui 23United Business Serve sep 15

3.80

1.20

s.oo

2.75

5.15

7.00

1.80

2.252.50

01.60

'.00

4.00

Q2.60Q2.40

06.006.255.75

5.255.505.50

3.603.50

0.34

6.406.356.506.50

1.51

1.701.1381.70

7.757.807.757.751.50

'.254.404.50

1.20 1.45

0.30

3'..00 3.00/3.052.902.95

d].OOd2.00

Q6.25Q6.2506.50

A3.31

dl.88

A3.62

02.4002.25

Pw5.47

2.19

1.13

f.85

2.tl2

6.20

0.17

10.04

5.90Q5.41

1.93Q1.13

_3.30

dO.22

. 5.12

1

6

9

1 os3.24Qasl.14

1 3.23

12

20

Aug 6*

AU1 6Ali'] 2S

*

Sep 8

*

Sep 9sep 8

*

Jul 22

*

Aug 6Aug 25

Sep 24Sep 8Auq 6

Sep 15Aug 6Aug 25

Sep 18Jul 22

86 14

54 8Jul 11Jul 23oct 6

*

69 9,Aug 15Sep 15Aug 6Sep 2

*

Aug 14Sep 15Sep 2

25 8 w1 2.24Ju]. 23OCt 6

*

41 24Sep 24

Shearson,Loeb Rhoades"United Business ServoStandarq & Poor's

A.G. Edwards & Sonstlewhard,Cook & Co."Stifel"Nicolaus & Co.

John ~ui r & CoWheat, First s~curities,

GEN'L DATACCM:lot IND(5eP)Shearson,L~b Phoades,

GE:I'L AUTOt"(j'r' E PTS(Dec) 32Shearson .. Loab ~hoades"

United Business Serve

-CEN?;RAL !olULS (May) 21Piper,Jaffray & Ho;;:;wood,

-GENEPAL MOTO? S(I>P.c) 52Shearson" LO"'!'b .Rtoades,Standard SPoor's

Standard & Poor's

-GENERAL I NS'rRtt~MT (Feb)

GENERAL H1EALTH SERV (Auq) 29

GE~:£RAL DEVICES (nec) 4 15Thomson McKinnon securities Aug 8

-GEtlERAL FOOOS (Mar) 31Herzfeld & Sterr.Piper,Jaffray & Hopwood,Standard & Poor's

GENl::RAL ENERGY.(Dec) 24 71Wheat, First securities, Ju122

- GENE?-ALDYNAMIC $(.DeC)A.G. Edwards & .sons

. Newhard,Cook & Co. ,Shearson"Loeb Rhoades,Stifel,Nicolatls& Co.

·St.;mdard & Poor- s

-GE~E?AL ELECTRIC(Pec)A.G.Edwards & SOnsE.F. Hutton & Co,United Business ServoStandard & Poor's

)GENERAL EXPLORATION(Dec) 3Wheat"First securities"

-GENERAL BANCSHARES(Dec)

-GENERAL CI~~(OCt)

E.F.Hutton & CO"United Business servestandard & Poor's

lW $0.11" '79

-GE~'L AM OIL T£XAS(Jun) 78Standard & ~OGrts

-GELCC CORP(Jul) 39,Robert W. Eaird& Co.lPiper,JaffrdY g Ho~ood,

'Shearson,L~b Rhoades,

-GEICC CORPfDec) 16

-GEA~HART IND(Jan)Robert w. Bdi:.l & Co.Howard,~eil,LaboJ~sse,

Freidrichs,shearson,Loeb Rhoades,United Business servo

GEN't. OHIU :i & L (Dl':!c)

Sa"tinqs & J..o.ln Investor

16 16

Sep 22

2.30CJ2.11

0'.00

-GILLEtTE CO(Dec)United Business ServoStandal:d·& POOr's

28Jun 30

•1 . 3.H

4.251&.25

EXPLANATION Of

eGENERJ\L .rCll'l'L\N~(!)f~C)

United fl'l:,ir;ns~ SO? rv.Standard I; P-.:or'!l

Zw SQ. 51, '7"}

l·· eGt

.N.ER~L PfJ.f\L1C..'J'!'u,.(oeclx... • Shearsor"Lc~b Jotho,tdes,T"" Uni ted BtlSi~~s.s ~e rv.

22

5

Jul 28

Aug 6lo\ay 1

wZ 3.31

1.'56

3.002.15

0.751.30

4.00 -GINO'S IllC(DeC)Standard & Poor's

-GK T'ECH~CLOGIES (Dec)

Standard & Poor's

-$oEE INSIDE FRONT COVER

11

44

•

•

.., d{!.l6

9 _x4.?;Qax!J.19

1.70

..

)

AMERICAN TELEPHONE N'fSE.r =,r 53 mlO &.1 <:=, m~:~~ 9.&%<::·=-a "h'Higl~~70.5 63.5 62.8 58.4 58.1' 53.9 53.9 53.5 55..0 53.0 52.0 64.8 65.6 64.8 ....64.8_ 55.8 _ 208 :'X ~bitLo~- 60. T I 49.8 49.8 ,48.0 48.5 40.~40.8 41.1 46.4 J 39.8 ,44.8 I 50.9 68.4 58.9 51.6 45.0 ,2

6. 158 P 1.' I Options age2·for·1 split_~i -+-_-+-__-+__~ Trade On 1-4--~-~1~.23~X-O""1 -11-.-..-,,~...~--1--~-""'·_-+--1!----f---+---+---1--188 0 f 2

a ._+ I I I CBO ......,.f....-..... _ 111+_•. ....;. II

1 6O·'·"::!:::~:::,.l..;0 ~.r l---1.-..--t... t- .. .....', ....,..;.'~:... "'::;,..~- i~C+'~+-"58 +--~.... i ·-··J.~,··t··_·· ··.. 1·.... · . I •~'I~ ,~ II "lui III . :"1" - 50. T~ Price'~ 5040,.--4-.. , ..,-'-," . ._ ..---i---->---LL..r-- --=---"" ". .' 48 1982198311984 t 1985.. , I··, i . Ii: ,.. "-' !-........... . . 38'3_0l)~2tS~~===±==::::::!:===~~t=:t:=:t:::j::··E=··:·t:=ReIIiti=,~.;;Pftc:e. -- ". 25 n(:::.".,...£.SSPedorm- 3 A-'Insider Decisions 1980 . • ---.. • .

MA M J J A SON DfJ F MA M I: .: :. :.L..-'+---I---4--~-4---+-.:s;~:_·"'·.J,,··~~'.-.:.~ ....-"""'-28 .. Ntat 12 Mol. )

:=g::ggg~gg~:g~~g~-~-4-~~-~-+~~--~-+-~-~~-~15~m 1~~ (Scale; 1 fofithest to 5 Lowest.

Institutional Decisions Est'd Ann" Tot'! Retum: '21'-''''' .-':. . 11 .1Q'79 2Q'79 3Q'" ~ 10'SO %Oua to 'l'ielct 1.6S} , . . f l t '-~,..- .....--4--""'+,- IlTA.l0··'-·

to Buv • 159 167 177 157 '149 %Ouat G 0WIh· ..41f ,..,.. Pen:ant.9 I 11~iIIlltl !toSeU 118 146 153 133 171 0 I. . shltes '6..11 IIh, ,.! &_ 11980 Vat UHklg's(OOOJ36853140283140907142761139039 %.Duetol'/ECllange: -.lft.~" ,traded ~3 , ,'; ~ --... •. '. va ne196411965: 196611967 i 19681 1969} 1970119711197211973 197411975il91619n 1918 19791980 i 198'1 ............. c... ... 83"'5£

19.13! 20.88! 22',.50.j 24,,04125.67'28.55\ 30.87133.70 31".151 42..37 46.1&1 49.15i 54.0356.35 61.23 64.14 61.55f l1,4.5~,'. 4Mfsb . 83.465.99l 6.461 6.9.6! 7.a9,! ,.63.1 8.22l 8.6Oi 9.02., 9.80~11 10..9.6. 1t8,44{ 12.00t 13.31,', 14..52 .15.91 16..6.1 ,I.. tilt, 11. Ii.It "Cash,• Flow'.'per. sA 2(J.4IJ3.211 3.41 1 3.69~ 3.79i 3.75! 4.001 3.~91 3.911 4.34 4.98 S.27( 5.13 6.05 6.97 7.148.04 1.101 1.1~aiamitlppersA l'll2.00! 2.051 2.20~ 2.251 2.401 2.45i 2.601 2.60\ 2.10 2.87 3.24i 3.40 3.80 4.2(J 4.60 5.005.00t 5.2gtC)Qjv'ds Decl'd oersh. 8.'86.73i 1.40! 7.71,1.9Sf8.63! 10.14; 12.lfsf13.12 14.99116.35 17.541'6.01 16.05 11.44 20.01 22.26 22.85 21.4111 Cap't$fmutiftrpersh ! noo

35.421,31.051 37.88j39.761 40.611 42.081 43.331 44.67 46.32i 48.2950.161 51.43 53.43 55.94 58.76 61.37 63.511 65.4slotTaacUJte8ookValueshl 84.1JfJ522.391529.841539.421541.19;549.26 549.26~549.271549.31.553.71j555.28 559.701582.02 601.41 647.6J669.5S 701.3714IJ.8IJi71(J.11(J elComotMShsOutst'r 1815.'0

2t.71 19.6l15.1j '~:l 13.8! 13.31 11.7! 11.7 10.4\ 10.18.8j 9.4 9.4 8.9, 7.97.3 Boldf~, "cAnn'IP(ERatio ! 1.$2.9%1 3.1%' ·4.0~: .4.1 "'.6"! 4.8GJ. 5.6%1 5.1% 6.0$1 5.7% 7.0%1 7.0!! 8.7% 6.81. 7.6" 8.6% weVL ~jmateS .'cAml'tOft'dY"tttcI I. ,.'"

=t:':T:~:Laso.:.~~'Y':S6.5bill. 169551'8511 20904! 23~21 26174t2895132816 36495 4OS9345408 5fJtJIJ45$"~($mi!O r~tJJ111IT Debt $38.4 bIll. LT tnttmt .$2.6 bill. 12189.412239.7 2.532.1 i2946.7 3170.053147.7 3829.24543.9 5212.6 5614.3 585. 6tJI1IlNet ''''iUSmUn i 8MExcl. debt'of unconsolidated subs.: Sl.4 bdt. 41.1%l38.9$ 39.1$i39.4% 39.6%t} 40.3~ 40.6" 38.8%34.0%36.2~ J6.1i~ 36.lJIJncomeTallate .; i 35.fJ1'(LTinterestearned: 4.4xl 12.9%112.1% 12.1%112.5% 12.1"'.10.9~ 11.7% 12.5% 12.9% 12.5% 11.7% 16.11 NetProfitMartift lIUJ"leases, Uncapitalized Annual .rentals 5523 mill. 41.8%1 43.7% 45.3%i 46.0%.' 47.4$f 47.S$46.6~ 44.3% 43.9% 43.8%. 44.5" .44.5'" t.on,..Term Debt Ratio i 41.5%PensionUabilityr:~i8mtii In '79 V5. S387 m~IL 56.3%! 51.7%49.5%147.5% 46.4%j46.3~ 48.0% 51.0% 51-1% 52;0$ 52.1J" .52.tffli Comlao.Q£a1lityRatio ! 58.5"Pflt Stock S2.0 bill> PfdOiw'd S156.1 milt. 43141~ 48484 5284615780661950,66425 69143 73391 78618.85567 '35fJ111""~ ($mill) .. ! 33MIJIncl. 8.6.2 mill shs. S4pfd. cv. i~co 1.05 com. 42550147197526oo! 58568 64935 70442 75922 82398 90362 99858 IIJI1'.,I1J111JIfet"-lCSmUn : 5t11J1Jfjshs.; 10 mill.5hs. S3.64 ~fable S53. sinkIng 6.3%1 5.9% 6.2%1 6.6ft 6.1$ 6.4%1 1.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% Lin" 1.$1 $£ataedTotalCap'l l 7.5%~~~: :~3~:i~k?:94;fU~'~=~ ~;8:.3~~SC:·9.0%f 8.5% 9.0%} 9.7% 10.0% 9.3% 10.5% 11.5% 12.3% 12.2% 11.. 11.In' $EarnedHetWOfttI.1 145%par, cum~ . 9.0%! 8.7% 9.101.. 10.0% 10.2~ 9.5% 10.8% 11.7% 12.6% 12.4% 12.11%' U.5% $ Eamect Comm ECluity! fe.5%Minority Interest: S1.6 bill 3.1%~ 3~0% 3.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5~ ~7% $RetaiaedtoComm~ 3.5%CommonStock710.640.000shs. 65%1 66% 64% 61% 64% 69% 65% 62%61% 63% 64"1. 681 $AllDiv'dstoNftProft 68"CURRENT POSITION 1978 1979 3131/80 BUSINESS: The ~merican Telephone at Tele-most telephone equip. for the sYStem. contributesn-.. 1426.4 1372 graph Co. and its subsidiaries provide telephone about 11% of net income. BeU Labs undertakesCash Assets 1973.4 and. related communications· services throughout research and development. Est'd plant age: 10 yrs.Other 6234.4::~~:~ ~ U.S. Serves 138 million telephones, . 99% Has 1.0 mill emp~3.0mill shrhklrs. LaborCurrent Assets 8207.8 8308 capable of direct dialing; transmits 508 million costs: 48% of revs,. '79 ~prec.rate: 5.0%. Chrmn.:Acccs Payable 3544.5 3818.8 3351 conversations a day. Local service accounts for C. Brown. Pres.: W.Elhnghaus•. Inc.: New Yoric.Debt Due 3772.0 4106.1 4377 about 45% of revenues. Western Electric makes Address: 195 Broadway, N.Y.. N.Y. 10007.Otner. 4879.6 5236.2 5447Current Liab. 12196.1 13161.1 13'11SCOSt cutting and. rate hikes are playing a more than 9.5%, a 100% cost of living adjust..

332% . big role in this year's earnings. The llell ment,and cost· of living adjustments forFix. Chg. CO". 333% 349% System is out to offset the effects of the reces- pensioneers, as weU) and the further falloff inANNUAL RATES Past Past ~ :~~~~ sion by pulling tightly on its belt and· by growth as the recession deepens, are likely toof change (pet sht 10 Y1I 5Yrs petitioning the rate commissions for as much. cause profits to slide at yearend.!;\~::~~~~w" ,~:: ,~:~~ ~:~~ help as possible. Indeed, operating costs rose;'A··p'pofi'llsUd.e I·S e"'~~.ed·. ne"';t year bu'tEarnings 7.0% 9.5% 3.0% by just 11.2% in the second fiscal quarter: .' "'. '. • •.. ,..•~".. ..., ...,'.'Dividends . 7.0% 9~S'" 5.0% compared to 14,5% in the prior period. That .there may be.a dtvlf:iend btke nevertheless.B~k Value '..• ,3.5%. ,4.0% . (:~5% translates into a savings of about 13~ a share .qur profit estlmate.1s based on t!te eXJ>.eCta-V::, .QUARTERLY.,. R.£Yet.,UtS, tS mill, IA~ for. the qua.rte.r. As for.. r.ate hik.es, inc1u.din,.g -,tton.. tha~ ,the low tn.. the, recession Wi.. n,' beEnds Feb.28 May 31 Aq.31 NOY.30 •• Year an interstate rate boost of $499 million, $980 reached In the first. quarter of 1981; that· a1917 8558 89]6.. 9151 .94.27, 136112

1' .mi,l,lion has been· a.PP..roved·,.so£ar. thoisyea.r up g.rad,.ual recov.e.ry .Wi,n.,fono.\N •.•• an.d. that

1978 9674 10143 10374 10513140704 f () 1 th $800 '11' & 11 f 1979 'F ~here is a limit to belt tightening and rate19791067811194 11492 11655 45020' r mess an ml lOntOrao '. or l:.·k N hI 'f' . 1 d' .1980 i1188512363121lJ1J 12152 491001 these reasons, despite the growth slowdown, ~~les. evert e ess,' 1 caP.lta. spen mg IS1981112810 136011 14000 14530 ;55000' current period's earnings could well match re.duced some and depreciation. rates are

,~i'£CII EARHtKGS lttRSflAR£ IAtfull last year's. . poosted, eashcould be more plentiful,. allow-l~~ Feb.28 May 31 Aug. 31 Noy. 30118f~~~1 But the growth slowdown and a coming ~ng AT~T to payout a larger percentof earn-19171 1.55 1.80 1.82 1.71 6.88 wage pact may have the final say. mgs. -19781 1.80 1.92 2.09 1.907.11 Excludin~ rate hikes, reVenues grew at be- Growth may come more slowly in the1979 11.89 2.01 2.08 2.00 1.98 tween 9.2% I;ind9.7% in each period last year. future. AT&T's current earnings may be1980 1.93 1.99 2.08 1.90 1.90 thenata9.4%rateinthisyear'sfirstquarter. partly at the expense of future growth. By1981 ,1.80 ' .. 95 2.05 "gO 1.10 I tho It t ··t h·, th '.' . . ·h d h·h ·h· hCal. QUAfHERlY DIVIDENOS PAlO 8ful( ne.a es •quar er, ~wever, . e recession ralsmg .r~tes now, .t e .oor t. rou~ W lC·

.. M' 31' J ')0. ·S.... 30 D 3'1c" .. was eVident, growt.h shd to an 8.1% rate. competition enters IS Widened. 'Vh.de AT&Ten",,, Jr, • lilA. ......, te. t hear Wh'l th ., h'k d b 1 t'ht .. . . I'k I be 11 d'k h1976 .85.95' .95.951 3.70 . Ie e rate 1 esan e t Ig. enmg IS ley to a~we mto ne~~ar ets, sue ,1977 95 10.5' 105 1051410 referred to above, may offset thiS de- as data processmg.compehtlve pressures1978. 1:05 1:,'5,' ':1.5 ',:,54:50 eeleratio.n. t,hiS pe.n·od, .th-e c,ost Of., the new there promise to .beso fierce, too, that, o.ver"1919 1.15 1.25 1.25 1.254.90 labor pact due this summer (telephone work.. all the System may lose more than it gains.1980 I 1.25 1.25 125 ers are askin~ for an annual wage increase of A ~ ~L/,\;f,S_

(AlC~lendar vears. Qmv· repc)rts are'19. $3.05. Next·egs. re~t: mId-Sept. rtghts for cony. pfd. shs.in '11 ..• O'1V'd CQf11.Mfty'.Finencial Strength A++based on 12·mooUt pttflod endmg Noy. (C)Next d"ld meet'g about Aug. 13.fEtlnlf.st. pl.n av'bI. (5% disc·t.). {Ol Ej(cl. StOCk'. Price St.·bfli..y 10030. (8) Olluted eam,ngslsh. El«;.1. Be ,ex'(i()es elt abou,t.Aug.2Si .. Ollf'd pay",'t Intangibles. In '79= $2.06Ish. (~)In 1TI11I.. Pric.Gt'Owt"'~eral.t..... ;~tra. In '13. Esrd cons~nt:doUaregs./sh.; dates; Jan.·2. Apr. 1. July 1, Oct. 1. Plus adj. for stk sphts 1& d,v·ds. hrnmga PtedlCtllbtl•..,

FlCt\la' mat.rlal .. QQca.nedfrom ·lOUtCea 1MIlev.o 10 1M ,.t..blebut cannot be ~teed.

-I

...,...~r··...r· .- .i·... :-(. .

GENERAL PUB. UTILITIES NYSE· RECENT 5 siplE 264("- u>1olv·o. N"I"t=,·Jlll_H;gh-.~40.837.8 34.2 32.2 32.4 25.5 25.,GP~4.0 ~~~~E 20.3 • 17.5RA~~5 21~6 ;~/ 1~~9.YI£~~ I J,tir.US IIlow- 34.4 26.1 26.4 25.0 22.8 18.8 20.8 20.5. 17.0 9.5 10.4 15.6 18.0 16.8 7.0 3.4

~~~. t.' _-r--+--, , -\. 1-'1 _-=----.t----r-.-.+-.-I--.+-.. --.oL.-:~_._h.__.-- - .....__...-l .1 tl 95 x 0........ It... - -_.-. . . 40h,.".~.fl'I·I,~'l·:~~~"fi'1 I .dn 1 ....•Jlrr I ---r.. I_- ~.~ ~•.-'.. _..~' __ ~_aqe ~. of 2 30.

~:=Fi-t:~t=r-r "~I ~P~~' +:';,:1\, .," .... ~",;iif'i .....* ~i~~__ \S 7.82..,1~~SF:.·.~J=_...I..L-~~~ -. -1--'tI\- \1 T.JM~U".~ss 5.'---s.InsiderOecisions 1980 ..•••.••' ..... .'. . • •••• [.JI. a (fWIIM PIQ ....... ). .

M J J A SON 0lJ F MA MJ J ,_ -;,::-r; .::::: •••••-:-.;.. \ :. •••• '.' ••••• 2~· -.,/ .I.L 1ftC• .Hut·12 Mu. .to Buy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01- -_... 1-. . . •.•...__.•__••. • ". Ill''' •.SAfETY 3 A-.to Se" 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ._- 1---- ~-_._._. - ,... .,,~.~.~~~_. ····1·- :\ 5 .. (Scale: 1 Hitftut to 5 "'tlInstit~tiorra•.Decis~n.. ~n'80." Est'fjAM1To(I~tum: fl5-1I" ._- ,~ .-i rl- '- 4 BETA .15m:n Xl2J ~ 1Q'80 ~ %OuatoYltfd: •• l. _ f ..... ~.,.

~: :~: J: ~~. 2~ 2: 2g %OuatoGt~: l.ft' l.6W.ft ::::1~:o-'__-!L.Ti"' t...:dfi-r-r.·.·:1Ii- til. .fff.il··..·p.-..Hfci9·s(OOOI 6839 6485 5923 5385 4886 %o.toP/ECIt.,.: '45-1116 traded 1.0'." rBi-·1-- Oct. 3. 1880 V.lue line1964 I 1965 1966 1967 196B 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 19" 1978 1979 1980. 1981 c ................c...... 83-85£10.~ 11.33 11.67 12.54 13.03 13.38 14.00 14.86 14.81 15.38 18.21 17.2e 19.34 20.9E 11.16 24.32 29.'fJU'$ Revtnuesp.fSft 43.283.11 3.31 3.34 3.62 3.62 3.60 3.37 3.54 3.58 3.63 3.92 3.14 4.08 4.30 4.42 4.22 2.1' J.4IJ "CasbE"''' per sa 1.251.85 1.95 2.04 2.09 2.11 2.00 1.83 2.08 2.21 2.25 2.25 2.0C 2.20 2.50 2.30 1.56 .41 .1'tAJEarmncs per sJl 2..tJ(J1.3C 1.37 1.43 1.52 1.57 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.SO i 1.60 1.68 1.Sa 1.68 1.70 t.77 1.2C Nil Ni'~lOiY'dsDecf4Del'$h till.3.90 5.29 6.56 7.11 7.77 8.85 9.30 9.24 9.42 a.81 1.66 6.34 6.63 6.89 6.69 5.73 5.tJtJ 6.251Cap'U"ndincptr sll 5.26

18.33 16.71 17.78 18.34 19.21 19.56 19.50 19.81 20.31 20.51 19.37 lB,SC 18.8~ 19.04 1~.:!.~ t6;99'6-'.!.!!.:.!8.,'!!!CJ~TlfIanCiible8OH. ,,,sit ~1J.8tJ23.84 23.84 24,81 24.81 26.05 27.40 29.76 34.19 39.12 43.06 47.36 54.7E 5.5.26 59.12 SO.97 61.26 61.2661.2iTCQminonSMOvt$t'! ~6f.2i19.41S.1 15.3 14.2 13.3 13.2 11.3 11.0 9.9 8.8 6.1 7.4 8.1 S.D 8.1 1.4BoldfigurnA'CAM'IP/£lblie 1.11

3.6% 3.7% 4.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.1% 7.7% 1.0% 7.3%· 8.1% 12.3% 1'..3% 9.5% 8.5% 9.5% 10.4% .... VL ..tinqtn AftAmt10iv'4Yitfd 1/1.5.

CAPITAL sraucruRE •• of 6/30/80 : 416.S 507.9 .519.3! 662.3 862.4 942.C ·'068.8.1252.0.1326.6 1490],825 lIJIJIJ Rtvenues(SmiII) 2,5/JTotaIDtbt52456.8miu.DuainSYrsS601.1 mill. 51.8 73.7 99.01 116.0 125.9 133.2 160.9 133.5182.7 139A.7.6 'L$N.tProfittWl 165LT Debt $2169.7 milf. LT Intemt 5156.0 mill _... 3.7% t1.2%i 13.8% 18.0% 28.1% 3.0.4% 31.5". 28.3% 31.2%.. 15.8 Z4ft IacometuRatt 26.8(Inc!. $44.8 milt. parent comp~y debt.) 12.4% 14.5% 17.1"111.5% 14.6% 14.1% 15.1% 14.7% 13.8% 9.4% .J~7t: 4~.'" N.tPr~ilt"2"

~~:e_';f~5~/m~f1.in '79 v. S109.7 63.9% 57.30/0S3.6"! 52.5% 51.9% 51.3% 52.7% 51.3%51.8" 53.0%$2.$~ S3.1JJ tonc·TfnnDebtRatio 54.'"mill in '78 . . 31.0% 33.7%34.2%135.0% 35.6% 35.L~~r!~~.9% 35.1%34.4% 35.~ 36:8~ C.9mm9J!Ej1qitJRttiLJ!!1S

Pfd Stock. $SOB.6 mill PfdDi,'cl 543.5 mill. ~022.6 2164.92490.0 2119.3 2908.5 3236.9 3497.5 3751.23891.9 4052.1·4116' 411$ Total ca,ibl($miI). 46254.287.912 shares 3.70% 10 13.50~katlcum. h946.22191.1 2496.42198.03056.33298.93560:03850.54121.34268.4 4325 4426 Net Ptaatltmilll 5fJ(JJJand $100 par. Calf. at 104 to 113.50; ·50 5· S·SfJL 61fJL 59Gl 6501 68al 61et.· 55:. 3o.$1Il AIIIIl Gr· ~-·"""r·ot-I.l". 'I 6.$"3.400.000sns. 8.75% to 9'l'. cum•• nO par. 3.9% . % .6% ... ... ... .... '. .. ... ..~.111 .,. .,.fI,. :.OUf'_ •.• wI) .••call. 27.19 and 27.25 ash. Incl. i04.000 shs. 1.1 % 8.0% 8.6% 9.0% 9.0% 8.5% 9.1" 10.0% 9.7" 7.3~ 3.1JJ 4.51(, C$ EamedNetWortit "11"10.88% to 13.sew.. call t 11 to 113.50. 1.7% 9.0% 9.4~ 9.8% 9.8% 8.9% 10.3% 10.9% 10.2% 6.9% 1.5J 3oII1$tDJ<ft Earned Comm £q1rilv 11.6"sinking fund ends 611/99. .5% 2.2% 2.1%2.8% 2.4% 1.4% 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.6% 2.ft 3."" Retained toComtn.Eq305''Common 510«6t.263,654 shares 94% 79% 77% 71% 80% 88% 82% 75" 82% 84% N" 58", All Div'ds toHtt 'roII 6'"

OPERATING STATISTICS BUSINESS: General Public Utilities Corp. has '79rept'd deprec. rate: 3.2%. Est'dplantage: 719n 1978· 1979 three operating subsidiaries which sell· electricitv yrs. Prime fuels:coaJ. 51 %: oil and gas. 8%; nuc-

!i6Change Sales (KWH) + 3.9 + 5.0 + 2.3 in Pennsylvania and New. Jersey. Serves area of lear 190/.: pur. pwr.• 22%. Fuel costs 37% of reve·Avg. Resid'! Use (KWH) 7709 7921 7800 24.200 sq. miles; population of 4.0 mill. Ele~tric nues; labor costs. 9%. Employs 11.159; 169.258Avg. Revs. per KWH (i) ·4.20 4.24 4.65 rev. sources:resid'I, 40%: comm'l. 24%: IOd'l. ·common shareholders. Chai-rman: W.G. Kuhns.Caracity at Peak (Mw) 7038 7190 6556 29%; other, 7%. Principal industrial customers are President: H.M. Oieckamp. Inc.: Pa. Address: 260Peak Load, WintertMwl· 57605898 6173 the primary metals and paper and allied products. •Cherry Hill Rd•• Parsippany, N.J. 07054.

Annual load fl¢tor(,,) 64.4 65.8 64.5 Th· Pl' C· . . ·h·;'-' ·Gp·U fl. '. l·ffl . . ,f'n t th t t f~ Change C~tom.rs (yr"end) +1.4 +1.8 +1.7 • e ennsy vania OmID1SSI0~. as re~.- manCla o leer, ac~or""t".go eex. 0.. ... edMet Ed's emergency rate mcreasere- the rate order, that speCIfic aS$urancecouldIlled Charge Cov. (%) 150 1:'77~~: quest•••• Metropolitan Edison, a GPUsub- not be given that such interim revenues:~UAl ~AT£:..r:;t :~: to '83-'85 sidiary' and owner of a 50% .interest in the would not be used to fund TMI clean-up. ItR c enge ,., 55: 11.5% Three Mile Island (TMOnuclear plant,· had appears certain thatcloser-than-normal"C::::uF~:W" 2:0% ;:~~ 3.5% asked the Pennsylvania Public Utility scrutiny will be. applied to Met Ed'sE~r!,ings .5% -1.0,*, :~g: Com.mission for $35 million of interim rate testimony for the permanent increase as well~~v~~e~~~e -.5% :~:~~ '.5" relief as part of its $76.5 million permanent as to that of Pennsylvania Electric (Penelec),

Cal. QUlltm., R£Y£HUES ($ mil) full rate application filed July 29th. In rejecting another subsidiary of GPU and owner· of aendar Maf.31 June 30 Sept. 30 Dec.31 'fur Met Ed's request, the Commissio~ stated ?5% interestin TMI! which is also req~~st..

t---+---------=-----4--....f that the company "•.• had not sustamed the 109 a permanent rate mcrease of $67.4 mtlhon~:~~ 51t: ~i;:~~~~:~ 3g;:~ g~~:~ statutotty burdend.placed u

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t1979 384.9 335.4 383.9386.0 ~490.2 IJ.1ent o. extraor. lI~aryraere let.. .!1 a. 1- to . gm on . ct•.. t·. lor •.en~ e~ an •. c •1980 1448.1 425.0 415 416.31825 tIon, the Commlsslon added that m Its Vlew 27th for Met Ed. The CommlsSlon lsreqUlred1981 50fJ 43fJ 53$ 53$ 120tJlJ U ••• the major thrust of this petition is to to act on these applications by April 27, 1981.ttl· . (AJlltlHGSPER SHARf. '~Ifull make availab.le fund~ dir.ectly o.r i.ndirectly, We estimatethatth.e utilities will be award­

endar Maf.31 lunl30 Stitt. 30 OlC. 311 Yetf for dean up of TMI.'· In mid-1979, the Com- ed about 50% of their request.1977 .73 .45 .73 .59 [2.50 mission ruled that rate-payers would not be Hearings on an operating license Cor the1978 .65 .45 .63 .57 2.30 required to provide funds for the clean-up. undamaged TMI 11 unit have been197\1 .59 .33 .42 .2.211.56 The CQsts for the damaged #2 unit are es- scheduled for Oet. 15th before the Nuclear~::~ 5~ d:~~ :i: :~g I ::: timated.. ~t around $500 million, of whi,ch ~egulatorYCommis~ion.We believethatth~Cal. . QUAIU£RU OtVIOEHDS PAID I full $300 mllhon would. be recovered. fr~m ~n- hcense probably wll~ not be awarded untd

tnd.r M.,.31 Jun. 30 Stf)t.30 Ote. 31' Yat ~urance. Me~ Ed has appeale~ t.hlS mte.nm late 1981, at the earhest. . .~*-+-_~,;,,;:.;;;:..;.:;..:.:;~~:..:..:.:.~la::.l;;;:l.:.:....j Increase dental and the restnctlO:R agamst GPU shares appear too rlsky Cor the

""""). ., ~~: ;:~ .:~ .:~ .:~ ~.;~ the dean-up to the courts. typical electric. utilityinvesto~. We don't-p'. I 1978 :... :... :... :45 1:77 •••. a.n~ has. chaUeng~ t~at utility's believe thatGPU will b~ permitted to. faU", . 1979 .45 .25 .25 .25 1.20 credIbility. No doubt entermgmto the Com- into much serious financI~l tro.uble. but. on

1980 mission's decision was a statement made bv a (Contmued on pa1(€ 141)

I C.AI eased.. on BVI.. sh•. O.utst"g. N...ext e9.s .. IC.·)E. x.ci. .'".tanq.·~bl. assets &. de.fen.e.. d~[·'. 9: N.J.•. 13.25~: Pa. 13.1%; earn. on Com#any's Fin.nc'.1 Sttength B+rep't: late. Oct. Est'd constant·doUar c.b.erges. In·79:S5.7S/sh.COl Rate base: avg. com. eq.: 6.9%. Reg. Oimat.: Below Stoc;k'. Pr~ Stability 50eos./sh.: '79. d20c. (8J last dtv'd paldor~COS\; Rate allowed on com. .QUI" In Avg. Prica Growth Pa.ra.atence 25NQY. 26. 1979. • .. ,. I .- £.,,"ln9.• Predictabd,ty S5

hewat mata"at is obUlIMd from .cJUIC.. bebeV.. to be raMble but CMnO& .. guar.........

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