v&a -aproach-may 12 2006 subod sharma

7/31/2019 V&a -Aproach-May 12 2006 Subod Sharma

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Outline

Context

Indias Concerns

Status of Knowledge

Studies in Initial NATCOM

Features and Limitations

Approaches for Second NATCOM

Approach to Mainstreaming V&A


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Context and Concerns

NATCOM is a reporting obligation under Article 12 of the UNFCCC

Current understanding indicates that adverse impacts of climate changewill be on

Water resources

Agriculture - food security

Natural ecosystems such as forests

Coastal zones

Human health

and

Consequent impact on economic development


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The Setting

India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km)

Human population of > 1000 million and livestock

population of 475 million

Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas,

Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau

and islands

Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support

16.2% of the worlds human population

Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon

Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and

ecological regions

Agriculture is less than 25% of GDP and supports

650 million people

Coal is the dominant source of energy (47% of total

commercial energy)

Under such diverse natural conditions, abillion people speaking different

languages, following different religions,

inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in

harmony under a democratic system


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Status of Current Knowledge

Fragmentary

High degree of uncertainty with all impact projections

Uncertainties arise because of

-Limited understanding of many critical processes in the climate

system

-Existence of multiple climatic and non-climatic stresses

-regional scale variations and non-linearities

-Future itself is not easy to predict with confidence


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Spatial patterns of projectedseasonal surface air temperaturechange (C) by HadRM2 for 2050srelative to 1990s, under transientincrease of greenhouse gasconcentrations. (SRES A2 & B2)

Temperature and Precipitation Projections in 2050s

Spatial patterns of projected seasonalprecipitation change (mm) by HadRM2 for2050s relative to 1990s, under transientincrease of greenhouse gas concentrations(SRES A2 & B2)

Seasonal Temperature projections Seasonal Precipitation projections


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Water resources: An Overview

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Mahanadi

Brahmani

Ganga

Godavari

Cauvery

Narmada

Tapi

Krishna

Pennar

Mahi

Luni

Sabarmati

River Basins

Changefromc

urrenttofutu

re%

Ra in fa ll Ru no ff E T

Acute physical water

scarce conditions

Constant waterscarcities and shortage

Seasonal / regular

stressed conditions

Rare water shortages

Change (%) in water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios


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General decrease in rice yield with

increase in temperatureIso-yield line of wheat shift northwardsand reduces in area

Eastern regions projected to be mostimpacted by temperature increase &reduced radiation, resulting in fewergrain yield and shorter grain fillingduration

In Northern India, the potential

reduction in yields will be offset byhigher radiation, lessening the impactsof climate change

Addition CO2 may benefit crops but willbe nullified by increase in temperature

Agriculture: An Overview

2.5t/ha(Control)

4.5/ha(ClimateChange)

4.5t/ha(Control)

2.5/ha(ClimateChange)


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Coastal Zones: An Overview

Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

Hazard based analysis of impacts of cyclones on districts indicatesJagatsinghpur in Orissa to be the most vulnerable


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Forestry : An overview

Expected biome types under

climate projections in 2050.Present Biome Types

Dry savannah

Xeric Shrub land

Xeric woodland

Tropical Seasonal

Forest

Boreal Evergreen

Tundra

Forest types are likely to shift

Xeric Shrubland and Xeric woodlands are likely to be thedominant species under enhanced temperature situations


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ROURK ELA

MANDLA

CHENN AI

CARNIC OBAR

SONAP UR

KHEDA

HARDW AR HALDW ANI

SHAHJA HANPUR

ALLAHA BAD

TW Open for months

4-6

7-9

10-12

N.A

CARNICOBAR

4-6

7- 9

10-12N.A

TW Open for months

(a) (b)

Transmission windows of malariain different states of India (a) in2000 and (b) in 2080

Health: An Overview

Malaria may penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and somecoastal areas.

10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vectorbreeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000


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Vulnerability and Adaptation inNATCOM-1


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Features / Limitations NATCOM 1

Impacts and Vulnerability Studies

Impact assessment is made using climate changeprojections based on a single model outputs (RCMHad RM2) and single scenario

Uncertainty in projections of climate parameters atregional level

Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts atregional level (forests, crop production, water)


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Features / Limitations NATCOM 1

Adaptation

Preliminaryassessments made for different sectors;including assessment of current policies andprogrammes in relation to vulnerability

Further analysis needed to identify adaptation

technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs

Constrained by

Limited data availability

Limited time (


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Need for improving future V&A studies

Need for improved and reliable regional climate models

and climate projections for impact assessment

Need for improved climate change impact or responsemodels - Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated

Appropriate data generation for modeling

Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification ofvulnerable regions, socio-economic systems

Development of adaptation strategies and a framework of

Adaptation

Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained

research teams

Financial and institutional support needed


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Proposed Approach for theSecond National Communication

The scope of work in SNC contemplates

Generation of climate change scenarios derived from therecent generation of regional or global climate models(HadRM3, PRECIS, and other AOGCMs) and mapping ofclimatically vulnerable regions.

Development of socio economic scenarios at national level,

analogous to the relevant SRES scenarios capturing Indias

developmental path.

Improvement of the impact assessments of climate change on

water resources, agriculture, forestry, natural ecosystems,

coastal zones, human health, energy and infrastructure

carried out in INC.

Contd.


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Development of integrated vulnerability frameworks and

adaptation options (and hence adaptation frameworks) toestablish linkages between

socio economic scenarios and water resources andagriculture productivity and hence food security;

human health associated with climate change and thechanging profile of extreme events;

vulnerabilities due to the impacts on forests and other

natural ecosystem products;

sea level rise and vulnerabilities of a coastal zone

an assessment of the vulnerabilities of energy systems

and infrastructure

Approaches in Second NationalCommunication


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Integrated Vulnerability Assessment

In order to develop the integrated frameworks, case studies will

be carried out in the identified hotspots to

Assess the associated physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities;

Aanalyse the current coping mechanisms operational at the locallevel (indigenous strategies / policies and programmes / institutionalmechanisms /technological options and risk sharing measures) tocombat climate variability;

Identify the incremental measures required to cope with the adverseimpacts of climate change and

Develop adaptation frameworks for these case studies) that will

provide inputs for the development of national framework for

adaptation, and hence help devise adaptation strategies through

linkages to the Adaptation Learning Mechanism


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Socio-EconomicScenarios

Climate Change

& VariabilityWater

Food security

Agriculture

Livelihood

Livelihood Health

Coastal Zones Livelihood

Infrastructure

Forests

Livelihood

NaturalEcosystems

Water &Climate

Integrated Vulnerability Assessment AConceptual Framework

K T k f Add i V l bili d


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Key Tasks for Addressing Vulnerability andAdaptation Needs

Geographic

HierarchyStrategies

Local National Regional/ Global

Capacity Building Monitoring, observation

Awareness/assessment

at state/ district/

community levels

Scientific assessment,

measurement,

models, national

research agenda

Participation in global/

regional modeling and

assessments

Knowledge/

Information

Locale specific

databases, scenarios

and assessment, local

monitoring networks

Research networks,

National databases

(e.g. NATCOM),

scientific and policy

models, nationalscenarios, technology

inventory

Interface with IPCC

assessments,

interfacing with

regional/global

databases, scenariosand assessments,

technology inventory

database

Continued

K k f dd i l bili d


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Key tasks for addressing vulnerability andadaptation needs

Geographic

Hierarchy

Strategies


Institutions/

Partnerships

Community initiatives,

Early warning

networks

Stakeholders

networks, public/

private programs

FCCC processes,

trans-boundary

impacts assessment

Policy/ Instruments Local specific

adaptation plans,

community based

adaptation programs

Science-policy

linkage, economic

instruments (e.g.

insurance, R&D

funds), integration with

national development/

planning process

Adaptation funds,

trans-boundary

regulations

Continued

K t k f dd i l bilit d


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Key tasks for addressing vulnerability andadaptation needs

Geographic

Hierarchy

Strategies


Technology Locale specific

technology adaptation

Targeted R&D,

Technology transfer

protocols,

demonstration/ pilot

projects

Scientific exchange,

technology transfer


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Approach to Mainstreaming V&Ain NATCOM

A broad based Participatory approach involving concernedstakeholders through

Focused thematic training workshops for enhancing theassessment capacities of researchers;

Inter-sectoral workshops to facilitate integration of theassessments;

Conduct workshops to sensitise the policymakers, media, andNGOs about the outputs of the assessments;

Disseminate results amongst the general public using web-basedand print media

Establish synergies with other ongoing V&A projects


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Natcom Web site

NATCOM Web site

A website has been created and it

houses information on all the activities

carried out under the aegis of

NATCOM including information on

NATCOM network,events organized,presentations, publications and

related web links and now the national

communication

www.natcomindia.org


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BROCHURES BOOKS


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v&a -aproach-may 12 2006 subod sharma

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