Using Records to Troubleshoot Transition Cow

Performance

Greg Bethard, Ph.D.G&R Dairy Consulting, Inc.

DRMSBlacksburg, VA

greg.bethard@gmail.com

Concepts

• Benchmarking is a bad idea– Goal Setting and tracking makes a lot

of sense• Pay attention to what is being

measured and how it is measured• Economics trumps Biology

What is Transition Success?

• Healthy Transition• Cows ready to get pregnant• Good start to lactation

What Are the Questions?

• Important to formulate questions appropriate for the dairy

• Strive to develop monitoring systems to answer questions quickly

• Can’t afford to dig a hole it takes months to dig out of

Parity Differences

• Must consider Lact=1 and Lact>1 separately in all transition metrics.

• Issues are different, physiology is different, solutions are different.

Watch-outs

• Repeats?– Activity Intervals in PCDART– Event Gaps in Dairy Comp

• Too few cows• Ignoring Failures• Inconsistent diagnosis of disease

Watch-outs

• Inaccurate milk weights (Test Day or parlor meter errors)

• Dairy Culls• Misleading metrics

Misleading metrics

• Peak Milk– Lagging, too much momentum,

ignores failures, vague, imprecise• 1st Test Day Milk

– Range error, Average error• Conception Rates• Fat test as proxy for health

Misleading metrics

• Metrics with Variation– Too few cows…

• Metrics with Bias– Ignoring animals…conception rate

• Metrics with Momentum– Too much time..

• Metrics with Lag– Too long to measure..

Variation• One number can greatly distort the

results• Small herds are a big problem• Example: DA Rate

– 10 cows calved in Jan– No DA’s (0%)– If 1 DA, increases to 10%

• Solution: Add more time (calvings) to calculation

Transition Numbers with Variation…

• Crude Rule of Thumb: Any number with <50 observations

Momentum

• When too much time goes into the calculation, changes are difficult to detect, or take too long to detect.

• Large changes can have a small impact on parameter

Transition Numbers with Momentum…

• Peak Milk• Days Open• Calving Interval

Bias

• Errors that occur when data is ignored or not used in the calculation

• Using the wrong subset of cows, not including all of the cows, or not recording all of the data.

First service conception rate – A Biased Number

• 2 breeding pens with 100 heifers each

• Pen 1– 50 heifers bred, 40 conceived– 80% 1st service conception rate

• Pen 2– 100 heifers bred, 60 conceived– 60% first service conception rate

• 20 more pregnant heifers in #2

Transition Numbers with Bias…

• 1st service Conc rate• Peak Milk• Days Open• Calving Interval

What Are Some Questions Related to Transition

Success?

• Three Areas1. Healthy Transition2. Cows ready to get pregnant3. Good start to lactation

Healthy Transition: Questions

• How many cows are leaving in early lactation?

• How many cows are getting sick?• Are cows eating?• What do they look like?

Healthy Transition Metrics I like….

• 30 and 90 day cull rates – Cohort vs monthly– Goals

• 3% and 7% for lact=1• 5% and 10% for lact>1

• DA, RP, MET, and MAST rate– Set goals for each dairy

• % cows <40 DIM that are <50 lbs

Healthy Transition Metrics to use with

caution…

• DMI for close-up• DMI for fresh pen

Healthy Transition Metrics I don’t like…

• Fat percent of fresh cows• Fat:Protein ratios for fresh cows

Healthy Transition Future metrics?

• BHB in milk• Body Weight in Fresh Cows?• Temp in Fresh cows?

Cows Ready to Get Pregnant: Questions

• Are cows losing too much body condition?

• Do cows have adequate body condition by 50 DIM?

• How many cows are inseminated within 21 days of the VWP?

• How many cows are pregnant within 21 days of the VWP?

Getting Cows Pregnant, Metrics I like…

• 1st cycle Preg Rate for recent calvings

• 1st cycle service rate for recent calvings

• Scatter-plot of Days to 1st breeding vs. date

• % Preg by 100 DIM and 150 DIM

Getting Fresh Cows Pregnant, Metrics to use

with caution…

• Conception rates– 1st service– By DIM

• Conception rates are potentially biased, so you need to understand the bias

Getting Fresh Cows Pregnant, Metrics I don’t

like…

• Days Open• Calving Interval

Fresh Cow Milk:Questions

• Are cows ramping up quickly in milk?

• Do they milk during the peak window?

• How many cows are “falling through the cracks”

Fresh Cow MilkMetrics I like…

• Week 4 Milk• Week 8 milk• % over 100 lbs in herd• % of cows <40 DIM that are <50

lbs• 305ME projection at 2nd test day

Fresh Cow MilkMetrics I don’t like…

• Peak Milk• 1st TD milk• Lactation curves

Why do we ignore components when

assessing performance?

Biological measure of efficiency vs economics

• Biology– 3.5% Fat corrected Milk

• (0.515 x milk lbs) + (13.86 * fat lbs)

– 4.0% Fat corrected Milk• (0.40 x milk lbs) + (15.00 * fat lbs)

– Energy Corrected Milk• (0.323 x milk lbs) + (12.82 * fat lbs) + (7.13 x prot lbs)

Biological measure of efficiency vs economics

• Economics– Money Corrected Milk™

• Value of milk produced relative to 3.5% fat, 3.0% protein and static component values

• Units: pounds per day

Example

Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids

Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids

Which Fresh Cow is better?

Example

• Component Prices– Fat: $2.50/lb– Protein: $3.00/lb– Other Solids: $0.15/lb

Example

• Milk check adjustments– Quality: $0.50/cwt– Hauling: -$1.00/cwt– Promotion: -$0.15/cwt– Basis: $2.00/cwt

Which Cow is better?

Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids

Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids

Which cow is better?

Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 98.7 lbs

Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 109.8 lbs

FCM = 3.5% Fat Corrected Milk

Which cow is better?

Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 98.7 lbs• ECM: 99.3 lbs

Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 109.8 lbs• ECM: 105.2 lbs

ECM = Energy Corrected Milk

Which cow is better?

Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 98.7 lbs• ECM: 99.3 lbs• MCM: 103.3 lbs

Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 109.8 lbs• ECM: 105.2 lbs• MCM: 103.3 lbs

MCM = Money Corrected Milk

Which cow is better?

Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 98.7 lbs• ECM: 99.3 lbs• MCM: 103.3 lbs• Income/day = $20.61

Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 109.8 lbs• ECM: 105.2 lbs• MCM: 103.3 lbs• Income/day = $20.61

Conclusions

• Understand what you are measuring

• Be sure there are enough cows to determine differences

• Look at the cows• Don’t ignore components

Questions?