using data to play (and forecast) the future - play the future - strata data conference nyc 2017

Parisa Foster, Co-founder Play The Future

Using data to play (and forecast) the future

Friday, 6 October, 17

Buzzword warning: “wisdom of the crowd”


The Good Judgement Project


!


Play The Future: turning big data into entertainment


If it can be measured, it can be played


What makes a good prediction?


InformativeSpecific

Context

Data

Entertaining

Dissecting a “good” predictive question


Can we accurately predict the future?


Numerical input Slider input


Accuracy points based on accuracy percentage


The initial calculation for numerical....and its problems

|outcome value - predicted value|% accuracy = 100% - x 100%

outcome value


The revised calculation for numerical input

|outcome value - predicted value|% accuracy = 100% - x 100%

range max - range min


Slider: based on position...much simpler!

Position % accuracy

1 100

2 0

For 2 choices:

Position % accuracy

1 100

2 85.7

3 71.4

4 57.1

5 42.9

6 28.6

7 14.3

8 0

For 8 choices:


So....can we accurately predict the future?


68.7%

75.7%

80.4% 80.8%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

70.0%

72.0%

74.0%

76.0%

78.0%

80.0%

82.0%

Futurists Avg. Futurists Med. Dr. Tim Chartier SuperFuturists

March Madness prediction tournament: accuracy


Results Dr. Tim Chartier’s Research Team

Tournament Winner Angela O.

Which team will win the NCAA Men’s Division Tournament? North Carolina Gonzaga Gonzaga

How many total points will be scored in the final NCAA Tournament game?

136 132 130

In the final tournament game, how many points will the highest scoring player score?

22 22 22

In MM:SS, how long will the NCAA.com video of Saturday’s Dunks of the Day be?

00:56 1:03 1:03

At 13:00 ET on Saturday, what % of people on NCAA.com will think Oregon will win vs. NC?

58% 46% 47%

In °F, what will the temperature be in Phoenix, AZ at 11ET on Sunday?

57° 67° 67°

What will the point difference be at the end of the year’s NCAA championship game?

6 6 6

How many combined Twitter followers will this year’s NCAA finalists have at 11 ET, Sunday?

702,756 689,999 690,000

Who will be named the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player?

Other (Joel Berry II) Nigel Williams-Goss Nigel Williams-Goss

In MM:SS, what will the time on the clock be when the last 3-pointer is scored?

17:34 16:45 16:45

How many total steals & blocks will Monday’s NCAA Championship winner have?

15 12 12

What will the difference in field goals made be between the winners of each semifinal game?

4 5 5


“Usually, the person who wins the whole thing won’t be an expert. Why? Experts will go with the best odds on many

items and life involves both odds but then luck. If you have thousands or even hundreds of entries, often someone who

has randomness can win. Why? They have some skill, as they have to, but they capture the randomness through luck

on their own. There is skill though in knowing how much luck to integrate—unless you just got exceedingly lucky!”

Dr. Tim Chartier


43.7%

86.4%

70.1%

95.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Futurists Avg. Futurists Med. Ben Zauzmer SuperFuturists

Tony Awards prediction tournament: accuracy


64.9%

79.8%

91.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Futurists Avg. Futurists Med. SuperFuturists

Oikos branded predictions: accuracy


What differentiates the “SuperFuturists”?


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other

Gut feeling

Statistical models

Calculator

Ask/collaborate with a friend

Expert's prediction (when available)

Online research

Second hint

First hint

SuperFuturists

Futurists

Tools or methods used to accurately predict


Is prediction a skill learned over time?


70.00%

72.00%

74.00%

76.00%

78.00%

80.00%

82.00%

84.00%

86.00%

88.00%

90.00%

1

48

95

142

189

236

283

330

377

424

471

518

565

612

659

706

753

800

847

894

941

988

1035

1082

1129

1176

1223

1270

1317

1364

1411

1458

1505

1552

1599

1646

1693

1740

1787

1834

1881

1928

1975

2022

2069

2116

2163

2210

2257

2304

2351

2398

2445

2492

2539

2586

2633

2680

2727

2774

2821

2868

2915

2962

3009

3056

3103

3150

3197

3244

3291

3338

3385

3432

3479

3526

3573

3620

3667

3714

3761

3808

3855

3902

3949

3996

4043

4090

4137

4184

4231

4278

4325

4372

4419

4466

4513

4560

4607

4654

4701

4748

4795

4842

4889

4936

4983

5030

5077

5124

5171

5218

5265

The avg. of SuperFuturists’ accuracy increases over time


70.00%

72.00%

74.00%

76.00%

78.00%

80.00%

82.00%

84.00%

86.00%

88.00%

90.00%

1

48

95

142

189

236

283

330

377

424

471

518

565

612

659

706

753

800

847

894

941

988

1035

1082

1129

1176

1223

1270

1317

1364

1411

1458

1505

1552

1599

1646

1693

1740

1787

1834

1881

1928

1975

2022

2069

2116

2163

2210

2257

2304

2351

2398

2445

2492

2539

2586

2633

2680

2727

2774

2821

2868

2915

2962

3009

3056

3103

3150

3197

3244

3291

3338

3385

3432

3479

3526

3573

3620

3667

3714

3761

3808

3855

3902

3949

3996

4043

4090

4137

4184

4231

4278

4325

4372

4419

4466

4513

4560

4607

4654

4701

4748

4795

4842

4889

4936

4983

5030

5077

5124

5171

5218

5265

Erratic beginning followed by steady increase over time

70.00%

72.00%

74.00%

76.00%

78.00%

80.00%

82.00%

84.00%

86.00%

88.00%

90.00%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

300thavg:80%

600thavg:81%

2500thavg:82%

4000thavg:83%

First 20 predictions


60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

70.0%

72.0%

74.0%

76.0%

78.0%

80.0%

1 8 15

22

29

36

43

50

57

64

71

78

85

92

99

106

113

120

127

134

141

148

155

162

169

176

183

190

197

204

211

218

225

232

239

246

253

260

267

274

281

288

295

302

309

316

323

330

337

344

351

358

365

372

379

386

393

400

407

414

421

428

435

442

449

456

463

470

477

484

491

498

505

512

519

526

533

540

547

554

561

568

575

582

589

596

603

610

617

624

631

638

645

652

659

666

673

680

687

694

701

708

715

722

729

736

743

750

757

764

771

778

785

792

799

806

813

820

827

834

841

848

855

862

869

876

883

890

897

904

911

918

925

932

939

946

953

960

967

974

981

988

995

Similar trend applies to regular Futurists...

20thavg:68%

100thavg:70%

250thavg:72%

500thavg:73%

750thavg:74%

1000thavg:75%


To conclude...


If it can be measured, it can be played

The crowd isn’t wise; but a select group are

Practice makes (almost) perfect

We predict you’ll remember:


[email protected]

Let’s predict the future by playing it!


mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

using data to play (and forecast) the future - play the future - strata data conference nyc 2017

Data & Analytics