Use of Satellite

Scatterometer-Wind & Altimeter-Wave Observations for Operational Forecasting

in Southern Hemisphere GMDSS MetAreas

Stan WilsonNOAA Satellite & Information Service

On behalf of the CEOS OSVW & OST Constellations JCOMM-III, Marrakech, 9 November 2009

Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

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NASA’s QuikSCAT has given us an increased awareness of the pervasiveness of

extra-tropical Hurricane Force Winds

kts

Intense, non-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force windsFeb 23, 2008, North Pacific

Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

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119

23

14

24 23

15

22

37

33 3134

64

51

39

49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Cyclones

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

Atlantic

Pacific

Hurricane-Force Extratropical Cyclones Trend in Detections & Warnings using QuikSCAT

WARNINGCATEGORIES

Pre-Q’SCAT1. GALE 34-47 kt

2. STORM >48

Q’SCAT ERA1. GALE 34-47 kt

2. STORM 48-63 kt3. HURCN FORCE

> 64 kt

QuikSCAT Launch Jun 99

Hurricane Force Wind WarningInitiated Dec 00

12.5 km QuikSCATAvailable May 04

25 km QuikSCATAvailable in N-AWIPS

Oct 01

Improved Wind Algorithm and Rain Flag Oct 06

244235

Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

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Hurricane-Force Winds in Extratropical Storms – 2001-2008

• Much more frequent than thought• Detection linked to algorithm & resolution

improvements and forecaster experience• Can predict where and when they will occur with

appreciable skill at 48 hrs…but limited at 96 hrs• Intensity forecast skill still underestimates

development rates for most intense storms and will under predict their winds

• Maximum strength of winds is still unknown

Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

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Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensitySep-May 2000-2007

Major Shipping RoutesNorth Pacific6,000/yr container1,500/yr bulk transits

7-yr annual average number of extratropical cyclones observed (contoured) with hurricane force winds for the years 2001 - 2008

Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

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Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensitySep-May 2000-2007

Major Shipping RoutesNorth Atlantic4,000/yr container1,000/yr bulk transits

7 yr annual average number of extratropical cyclones observed (contoured) with hurricane force winds for the years 2001 - 2008

QuikSCATThick Solid Line

NCEPThin Solid Line

ECMWFThin Dashed Line

Along-track Wave Number Spectra

Surface wind fields are poorly resolved in NCEP & ECMWF surface analyses over the open ocean on all scales ≤ ~1000 km, even though both assimilate QuikSCAT.

From Chelton et al. , 2006, Mon. Wea. Review

1000 km

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Scatterometers

• Scatterometers in Orbit– U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos)– EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational

Observations of Hurricane Force WindsObservations of Hurricane Force WindsOct 2007 – Aug 2008Oct 2007 – Aug 2008

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38

2

168

4

195

Courtesy of Khalil Ahmad, NOAA/NWS/OPC

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QuikSCAT + ASCAT

Combined Coverage (low-moderate winds)

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QuikSCAT + ASCAT

Combined Coverage (high winds)

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Scatterometers

• Scatterometers in Orbit– U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos)– EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational– India (ISRO) Oceansat-2 – just launched

LaunchedSept 23

Day 285~ Oct 12

LaunchedSept 23

Day 285~ Oct 12

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Scatterometers

• Scatterometers in Orbit– U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos)– EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational– India (ISRO) Oceansat-2 – just launched

• Scatterometers in Development– China (SOA) HY-2 series – early 2011– Russia (Roshydromet/Roscosmos) Meteor-M#3 – 2012– China (SOA)/France (CNES) – CFOSat – 2013/14

6-Hour

Revisit

Mean Revisit Time versus Latitude and Combinations of Scatterometers

Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)

• Planning the space arm of Global Earth Observation System of Systems

• Has 29 space agency & 19 associate members• Introduced the concept of Virtual Constellations

– Timely access to data for the public good – Inter-calibration between missions– Common data products and formats– Operational utilization of data products– Development of improved products – Harmonize orbits to optimize coverage– Serve as focus for GCOS Essential Climate Variables

WMO Executive Council June 2008

• Requested that efforts be made…to ensure that… ocean surface meteorological observations be routinely collected and disseminated via the GTS…

• Requested…participation of space agencies in that scheme.

• Recognized that severe coastal inundation events from extreme sea state conditions occurred in many parts of the world…where coastal and ocean surface meteorological observations were…limited or absent.

• Requested JCOMM...to address this issue as a matter of priority.

Approach

• Two of the most easily understood products relating to the ocean surface derived from satellite observations are:– Surface Vector Winds (SVW) from scatterometers– Significant Wave Height (SWH) from altimeters

• Two of the most important products required by a marine forecaster for a surface analysis are: – SVW – wind speed and direction– SWH – or sea state

• Therefore, when engaging with users, include consideration of SWH along with SVW

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Altimeters

• Altimeters in Orbit– France (CNES)/U.S. (NASA) Jason-1 & Jason-2– Europe (ESA) ENVISAT

• Altimeters in Development– Europe (ESA) Cryosat-2 – early 2010 – India (ISRO)/France (CNES) SARAL – 2010– China (SOA) HY-2 – early 2011 – Europe (ESA) Sentinel-3A – 2013 – 1st of two – Europe (EUMETSAT)/U.S. (NOAA) Jason-3 – 2013 – U.S. (Navy) GFO-2 – 2013

User Community Engagement

• Promote the use of scatterometer-derived SVW and altimeter-derived SWH in operational marine forecasts world-wide for the protection of life and property at sea

• Focus initially on GMDSS MetAreas in the Southern Hemisphere

• Assess whether responsible forecast centers have timely access to, and routinely use, SVW and SWH

• Depending on what is learned, proceed accordingly…

Global Maritime Distress and Safety System

GMDSSMet Area

High-SeasOperational

ForecastResponsibility

Data routinely used in operational forecasts?If so, how are they accessed?

Surface Vector Winds Significant Wave Height

QuikSCAT(to go on GTS)

ASCATJason-1 & Jason-2

ENIVSAT(to go on GTS)

VMarine Meteorological Service, Brazilian Navy

YesFTP

No No No

– National Institute for Space,

Brazil YesFTP

No No No

VIServicio Meteorológico

Nacional, Argentina SomeFTP

NoSomeFTP

No

VIISouth African

Weather ServiceNo No No No

VIII-SMauritius Meteorological

ServiceNo No No No

XAustralian Bureau of

MeteorologyYesFTP

YesFTP

YesGTS

YesFTP

XIV-N Fiji Met ServiceYesFTP

YesFTP

No No

XIV-S Met Service of New Zealand YesFTP

YesFTP

No No

XVServicio Meteorológico de la

Armada, ChileNo No No No

Comments on Some Present High Seas Forecasting

• Operational centers in these countries base their high seas forecasts on model output as follows: o Chile – uses FNMOCo Argentina – uses NCEP or ECMWF o South Africa – uses UK Met Office

• But recall that present operational analyses do not capture the spatial variability of the wind field ≤1000 k and they significantly under-report the speed of hurricane-force winds

We have been observing SVW and SWH for well over a decade…

Why such low operational use?

• Unaware of the capabilities 5 different satellites• Unable to access the GTS• Unable to decode BUFR files on GTS & each is different• Must sort through files on the GTS that have little

correspondence to areas of interest • Must write a proposal to get ftp access• Must go to 5 different ftp sites, each with different

format• Don’t know when products become available on each • Difficult to integrate OSVW & SWH products into

analyses• Forecasters don’t know how to use the products

Issues for the Satellite Providers

• Data policy to enable timely operational access• Each country needs to be willing to share data in a timely

manner for the public good

• If access is provided separately for each satellite• GTS – separate BUFR decoder for each• FTP – document procedures for each• Each new source requires a new linkage to all users

• But if there were a single point of access – ‘one-stop shopping’ – for each variable• Only one set of procedures is needed for the user• A common operational product could be available in a single

self-describing, hardware-independent format • Products could be packaged specific to each area of interest to

offer a very low data rate• Each new source could be easily incorporated into service

Issues for Users

• Initial Training Course– To develop an initial course based on direct and immediate

feedback from operational users– To focus on accessing and using SVW and SWH in operational

analyses and forecasts– To include – for each country – an operational forecaster and

(where possible) a research user of SVW and SWH

• Subsequent Courses – Once the curriculum has been tested in the initial course, to be

given in the developing countries where student participation can be maximized

– To be organized in close collaboration with JCOMM, WMO, IOC and the operational forecast services

– To evolve in response to growing forecaster familiarity with operational use of SVW and SWH products

Use of Satellite Wind and Wave Products in Marine Forecasting

• A initial training course focused on the use of scatterometer-derived surface vector winds and altimeter-derived significant wave heights in operational forecasting for the high seas

• Co-led by NOAA & EUMETSAT in collaboration with and hosted by the IOC Project Office for IODE in Oostend, Belgium – December 14-18, 2009

• For information on the course as it develops: http://hosting1.iode.org/moodle/mod/resource/view.php?id=565

Instructors

• Europe – EUMETSAT– Met. Operations………………..– User Services…………………….

• France – MeteoFrance…………….• Netherlands – KNMI……………….• New Zealand Met. Service……….• Norway – MetNo……………………..• U.S.A. – NOAA

– Ocean Prediction Center…...

– Cen. Pacific Hurricane Ctr…– Satellite & Info. Service……..

• U.S.A. – U. of New Hampshire….

• Julia Figa• Henk Verschuur• Stefane Nirola• Ad Stoffelen• Mark Schwarz• Gunnar Noer

• Joe Sienkiewicz• Rick Knabb• Paul Chang• Zorana Jelenak• Doug Vandemark

Students• Argentina – SMN…………………….• Argentina – UBA……………………..• Brazil – SMM…………………………..• Brazil – INPE…………………………..• Chile – SMA……………………………..

• Chile – UdeC……………………………• Fiji Met Service……………………….• India Met. Dept……………………….• India Space Research Org………• Mauritius Met. Service……………

• So. African Weather Service……

• Deborah Souto• Martin Saraceno• Silvia Regina• Rosio Camayo• Gonzalo Espinosa• Luis Vidal• Andres Sepulveda• Amit Singh• A.K. Sharma • Raj Kumar• Ganessen Virasami• Mamad Beebeejaun• Carlton Fillis• Jacqueline Riet

Initial Performance Metrics – How will we measure success?

All Southern Hemisphere centers with responsibility for operational forecasts for GMDSS MetAreas will routinely utilize SVW from all current scatterometers and SWH from all current altimeters in marine analyses and forecasts – i.e., all boxes in the matrix will be colored green.