use of fod for estimation of methane emissions from municipal solid waste in the eu25:...
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Under contract with the European Environment Agency. Use of FOD for estimation of methane emissions from municipal solid waste in the EU25: ‘Outlooks’. Alejandro Villanueva [email protected] European Topic Centre on Resources and Waste Management. What is the goal of the ’outlooks’ project?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Workshop on Inventories and Projections of Greenhouse Gas
Emissions from Waste
8-9 March 2006, EEA, Copenhagen
Use of FOD for estimation of methane emissions from municipal solid waste in the EU25: ‘Outlooks’
Under contract with the European Environment
Agency
Alejandro [email protected]
European Topic Centre on Resources and Waste
Management
What is the goal of the ’outlooks’ project?
EU25
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Met
hane
gen
erat
ion/
reco
very
(m
illio
n to
nnes
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MS
W g
ener
atio
n/la
ndfi
lling
(m
illio
n to
nnes
) Total MSW generation
Total MSW landfilling
Total methane generation from MSW
Methane from MSW recovery
Net methane emission from MSW
Outline
1. Background for the projections What information did we use to estimate CH4
generation from landfills? – IPCC methodology– MSW only!
2. Key parameters• Activity data:
• Composition of the landfilled waste• Amounts landfilled: 1950-1990 and 1990-2005
• Methane recovery ratios• IPCC methane oxidation parameters: MCF & OX
3. Future workUnder contract with the European
Environment Agency
Background for the projections
• FOD Methane emission contributions using FOD, food waste
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gg
met
han
e/yr
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Background for the projections
• FOD vs massbalance - food wasteFood waste, Denmark
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
18,00
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
total using FOD Gg/yr total using massbalance Gg/yr
Background for the projections
• FOD vs massbalance - wood wasteWood waste, Denmark
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
total using FOD Gg/yr total using massbalance Gg/yr
Fractile of methane emissions from previous years
0102030405060708090
100
195019601970198019902000
% o
f to
tal m
eth
ane
po
ten
tial
Food wasteWood wastePaper waste
Background for the projections
• FOD vs massbalance: 15-35 years back needed
Background for the projections
• FOD • A modification of the draft IPCC
spreadsheet
Background for the projections
• FOD• A modification of the IPCC spreadsheet • Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) only !
The reason: An econometric model has been developed in the ETC/RWM, but for MSW only
MSW generation projections
EU15 MSW generation per capita (tonnes/cap/year)
0,000
0,100
0,200
0,300
0,400
0,500
0,600
0,700
0,800
0,900
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
at
be
de
dk
es
fi
fr
gr
ie
it
lu
nl
pt
se
uk
Biodegradable waste amounts captured
Under contract with the European
Environment Agency
Origin TreatmentWaste fraction
Households
Source - Separated fractions:
Mech-Biol. Treatment
Export
Incineration
Recycling (incl. composting)
In MSW (contains 20-50% biowaste and 10-25%paper)
Sewage sludge
Markets, commerce and offices
Park and garden waste
Sewage sludge
Biowaste
Wood
Paper
?
Stabilisation (composting, AD)
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
L a
n d
f i
l l
i n
g
Industry Industrial biowaste ?
4 Key parameters
• Activity data:• Composition of the landfilled waste• Amounts landfilled: 1950-1990, 1990-
2005, and 2005 -2020
• Methane recovery ratio • Oxidation rates: MCF & OX
Under contract with the European
Environment Agency
1. Composition of the landfilled waste
• Typically in reports from national research institutions / consultants
LANDFILLED WASTE COMPOSITION
OXIDATION IN THE LANDFILL (MCF, OX)
CH4 RECOVERY
1995
1975
1985
1965
1955
2035
2025
2015
2005
DATA CERTAINTY
WASTE AMOUNTS
% TO LANDFILL
1
2
3
4
2. Amounts landfilled
2.1 Total amounts generatedEU15 MSW generation per capita (tonnes/cap/year)
0,000
0,100
0,200
0,300
0,400
0,500
0,600
0,700
0,800
0,900
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
at
be
de
dk
es
fi
fr
gr
ie
it
lu
nl
pt
se
uk
2. Amounts landfilled
2.2 Percentage of MSW to landfillPercentage of BMW landfilled in the EU25
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
AustriaBelgiumCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUnited Kingdom
The Landfill Directive targets
MSW generation and BMW landfilling trend in the EU15
Under contract with the European
Environment Agency
OBS!: Only MUNICIPAL biodegradable waste: no sludge, no industrial waste
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
10
00
to
nn
es
= G
g
MSW generation
BMW generation (As % ofMSW)
BMW landfilled
BMW landfilled likelyscenario
Landfill Directive targetsfor BMW
Landfill Directivereference
Historical Projected
1999: Directive enters into force
68 %75 %
50 %35 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Per
cent
age
of r
efer
ence
(gen
erat
ion
in 1
995)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Landfill Directive targets
Under contract with the European
Environment Agency
Are MS on the way to meet the LD targets?
Ref.
2006
2009
2016
2. Amounts landfilled
2.2 Percentage of MSW to landfillPercentage of BMW landfilled in the EU25
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
AustriaBelgiumCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUnited Kingdom
LANDFILLED WASTE COMPOSITION
OXIDATION IN THE LANDFILL (MCF, OX)
CH4 RECOVERY
1995
1975
1985
1965
1955
2035
2025
2015
2005
DATA CERTAINTY
WASTE AMOUNTS
% TO LANDFILL
1
2
3
4
3. Methane recovery
Methane recovery as % of the total emitted
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
3. Methane recovery
Trends in MSW landfilled and methane generation, Denmark
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
Met
han
e em
issi
on
s (G
g/y
r)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Was
te g
ener
ated
/lan
dfi
lled
(G
g/y
r)
Total MSW
Total MSW tolandfill
Totalmethanegenerated
Methanerecovery
Net Methaneemission
LANDFILLED WASTE COMPOSITION
OXIDATION IN THE LANDFILL (MCF, OX)
CH4 RECOVERY
1995
1975
1985
1965
1955
2035
2025
2015
2005
DATA CERTAINTY
WASTE AMOUNTS
% TO LANDFILL
1
2
3
4
4. Oxidation in the landfill
Estimated evolution of MCF in landfills in Denmark
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Uncategorised
Managed
Unmanaged, deep
Unmanaged, shallow
LANDFILLED WASTE COMPOSITION
OXIDATION IN THE LANDFILL (MCF, OX)
CH4 RECOVERY
1995
1975
1985
1965
1955
2035
2025
2015
2005
DATA CERTAINTY
WASTE AMOUNTS
% TO LANDFILL
1
2
3
4
Interim results
Under contract with the European
Environment Agency
+ + + ….
EU25
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Met
han
e g
ener
atio
n/r
eco
very
(m
illi
on
to
nn
es)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MS
W g
ener
atio
n/l
and
fill
ing
(m
illi
on
to
nn
es)
Total MSW generation
Total MSW landfilling
Total methane generation from MSW
Methane from MSW recovery
Net methane emission from MSW
0
0,01
0,02
0,03
0,04
0,05
0,06
0,07
0,08
0,09
19
50
19
60
197
0
198
0
199
0
20
00
20
10
20
20
203
0
Ye ar
Me
tha
ne
em
iss
ion
s (m
illio
n t
on
ne
s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Was
te g
en
era
ted
/land
fille
d (
mill
ion
tonn
es
)
Total MSW generation
Total MSW landfilling
Total methane generationf rom MSW Methane f rom MSW
recovery Net methane emissionf rom MSW
Trends in MSW landfilled and methane generation, Denmark
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
198019
851990
19952000
2005
201020
1520
2020
2520
30
Yea r
Me
than
e e
mis
sio
ns
(G
g/y
r)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Wa
ste
gen
era
ted
/la
nd
fill
ed
(G
g/y
r)
Total MSW
Total MSW tolandfill
Totalmethanegenerated
Methanerecovery
Net Methaneemission
0,00000
0,10000
0,20000
0,30000
0,40000
0,50000
0,60000
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
Year
Me
th
an
e e
mis
sio
ns
(m
illi
on
to
nn
es
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Wa
ste
ge
ne
rate
d/la
nd
fille
d (
millio
n t
on
ne
s)
Total MSW generation
Total MSW landf il ling
Total methane generationf rom MSW Methane from MSWrecovery Net methane emissionf rom MSW
Future work in the ETC/RWM
1. Refinement of the 4 key parameters
2. Extension of the projections to: 1. Other landfilled organic waste fractions
1. Industrial waste 2. Sewage sludge
2. Other waste treatment technologies (composting, incineration)
Under contract with the European
Environment Agency