u.s. trends and speculations about the future
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U.S. Trends and Speculations about the Future. Are recent outdoor activity trends continuing or deviating from first decade trends—NSRE? Do recent trends in time outdoors by youth continue or deviate from early trends observed in the National Kids Survey? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
U.S. Trends and Speculations about the Future
Athens GA
• Are recent outdoor activity trends continuing or deviating from first decade trends—NSRE?• Do recent trends in time outdoors by youth continue
or deviate from early trends observed in the National Kids Survey?• What do projections of recreation participation
show? (Forest Service’s 2010 decennial Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) national assessment)• What is projected for natural resource,
population, and recreation resource availability?• Observations and speculations about reported
trends and projections?
Athens GA Research Connections• Connections---The current research we report here
has a number of connections to past research• Surveys---FEVS, PARVS, IMPLAN for Recreation,
NRS, CUSTOMER and NVUM• Partners have included UGA, UT, NOAA, NASPD,
States, ERS, EPA, COE, NPS, NFS, BLM, CRS, …..• Work with these partners led to the
NSRE and the National Kids Survey (NKS)
• Much of the research has been tied to FS RPA national assessment
NSRE• National RDD survey – Started 1960 – Continuous since 1999– Last birthday – 140,000+
• Survey’s contain:– Core modules (recreation & demographics)– 2-3 others modules
• Data is weighted (using Census)• National, regional, state & within state strata
• September 2007 through spring 2012• Build a national baseline about kid’s time and
activities outdoors• Without a baseline, one cannot monitor trends• The National Kids Survey is a companion to the
National Survey on Recreation and the Environment The NSRE is a general population survey of 16+
• A proxy household member 20 or older represented kids 6-15
• Teens 16 to 19 interviewed directly• More than one child in household, the
one with the last birthday was selected
National Kids Survey
The RPA Assessment The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act
(RPA) of 1974 mandates that every 10 years: national assessment of conditions/trends of natural resources all forest and rangelands, public and private
A snapshot of current U.S. forest and rangeland conditions and trends; identifies drivers of change; 50+ scientists w. shared databases, and projects 50 years into the future (2010-2060)
The Assessment includes outdoor recreation, fish/wildlife, wilderness, forests, water, range, urban forests, and potential impacts of climate change on resources
http://www.fs.fed.us/research/rpa/2010rpa
Published research from Athens Group for the 2010 Assessment:1. County Population
Projections by scenario2. Recreation Demand Trends
and Futures in the U.S. and its regions to 2060
3. Natural Amenity Effects on Rural Population Migration in the U.S.
4. Recreation & Protected Land Resources & Futures
5. Participation Projections
Trends and Futures
What had we been reporting as Population and Recreation Trends?
Change in persons per square mile since 1990
Change in Demographics Since 1990
Age Group
United States
%change
Under 6 25,082.3 12.0
Age 6-10 19,897.3 10.2
Age 11-15 20,346.1 21.5
Age 16-24 38,373.4 13.8
Age 25-34 40,931.6 -5.2
Age 35-44 42,501.1 13.5
Age 44-54 44,372.1 77.0
Age 55-64 33,686.2 59.5
Age 65+ 38,869.7 25.0
Total 304,059 22.2
Race/ Ethnicity
United States
%change
White 199,491.5 5.9African American 37,171.8 26.8
American Indian 2,329.0 29.6
Asian or Pacific Islander
13,672.3 95.4
2 or more races 4,451.7 .
Latino or Hispanic 46,943.6 109.8
Consistent with existing outdoor rec literature Black (neg) Native American (pos) Asian (neg) Hispanic (neg) – except for Day Hiking Educ (neg) – consumptive & motor activities Educ (pos) – nonconsumptive & challenge Income (pos) – most activities Gender – boys still play more outside Population density (neg) – crowding or urban effect? Resource availability (positive) Climate (generally negative)
Demographic Change Influences
Hells Canyon WA, Sonja and Matt Reeves, April 2012
Nature-based Outdoor Recreation Growth (number of people & annual participation days, 2000–2009)
2000 2009100
150
200
250
20
40
60
196 210
37
52
Number Who Participate (million)Number of Activity Days (billion)
Year
Mill
ions
who
par
ticip
ate
Bill
ions
of d
ays
+40.1%
+7.1%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Visit Recreation And Historic Sites Viewing/Photographing NatureBackcountry Activities Motorized ActivitiesHunting And Fishing Non-Motor BoatingSnow Skiing And Boarding
Year
Mov
ing
aver
age
inde
x
Current Situation and TrendsRecent Recreation Activity Trends
http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/40453
Wildlife Watching 1996-2006 (population 16 years or older, numbers in millions)
1996 2001 20065860626466687072
Year
Mill
ions
Source: U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service
What does an update show? (2005-09 and 2010-11 (NSRE))
ActivityPercent participating
2005-2009 2010-2011Walk for pleasure 85.0 84.7Family gatherings outdoors 74.0 74.4 +Swimming, diving, etc. 61.3 66.1 +Sightseeing 52.7 60.8 +View/photograph other wildlife 50.2 54.1 +Picnicking 51.7 47.5View or photograph birds 35.7 41.4 +Boating 35.5 38.2 +Bicycling 37.5 35.6Fishing 34.2 35.0 +Snow/ice activities 24.9 26.6 +Developed camping 23.8 21.7Primitive camping 14.5 12.4
What is the Outdoor Foundation Survey Showing?Outdoor Recreation Participation Report 2011
General Findings• More young people got outside• Most significant increases were females,
African Americans, and Hispanics• More adult participants than non-
participants had had physical education or outdoor experience as youth, 60 percent versus 21 percent
Source: Outdoor Foundation
From the Physical Activity Council 2012 Participation Report and the Outdoor Industry Association® (OIA):
• Outdoor activities were the only ones out of 119 to see an increase in overall participation.
• Participation in outdoor activities, like camping and hiking, rose 2 percent
• Overall participation in sports, fitness and related physical activities leveled off or slightly dropped from 2010 to 2011
• Core participants, those who participate on a regular or frequent basis, remained steady for outdoor activities
• The number of “inactives”, none of the 119 activities — rose to 68.1 million, or 24 percent
• For inactives, camping, hiking and running are among the top activities they aspire to undertake. Fishing and canoeing are also among “aspirational sports”
Participation in Passive Outdoor ActivitiesAll Americans, Ages 6 and Older
How many days in 2010 did you participate in passive outdoor activities, such as picnicking, unstructured play time, visiting a community park, kite flying, lunch outdoors at a park bench or a short walk at lunch?
57.8 daysaverage annual number of passive outdoor outings per outdoor participant
37.1 daysaverage annual number of passive outdoor outings per outdoor non-participant
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Greatest One-year Change(2009-10, Age 6 through adults)
Activity Percent Change
Boardsailing/Windsurfing +43Whitewater Kayaking +35Bicycling +31Telemarking (Downhill) +23Sea Kayaking +21
Climbing +20Scuba +15Running/Jogging +13Snowboarding +10
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Activity20061000s
20101000s
Bicycling 39,688 42,347
Bird watching 11,070 13,339
Camping 43,123 42,301
Hiking 29,863 32,496
Hunting 15,097 14,007
Running/ Jogging 38,719 50,159
Walking for fitness 101,229 114,068
WildlifeViewing 20,294 21,025
Five-Year TrendSource: Outdoor Foundation
Activity20061000s
20101000s
Canoeing 9,154 10,553Fishing - freshwater
43,100 38,860Fishing - saltwater
12,466 11,809Kayaking–recreational
4,134 6,465Jet skiing 6,918 7,753Sailing 3,390 3,869Water skiing 5,273 4,836
Activity 2006 2010
—thousands (rounded)—
Running or jogging
38,700 50,200
Fishing 49,700 45,400
Biking 39,700 42,300
Camping 43,100 42,300
Hiking 29.900 32,500
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Participation in Gateway Activities5-Year Change
Use of Information Technology in Outdoor Recreation
Technology Female Male— percent of all participants, any age —
Computer for information 54 50Computer or mobile technology to organize
47 44
Mobile/internet to make it easier
41 40
Share experiences with others
39 31
Mobile technology when participating
35 32
Use GPS/map applications 18 18
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Activity
PercentNon-
Hispanic HispanicView/photograph natural scenery 67.8 59.3
View/photograph flowers, etc. 54.7 52.4
Sightseeing 56.0 50.4
View/photograph other wildlife 53.6 47.4
Boating 37.9 30.7
Gather mushrooms, berries, etc. 35.2 30.0
View or photograph birds 40.1 29.9
Percent participating in activities favored more by Non-Hispanics
NSRE Aug 2009 – Oct 2011
Activity
Percent participating
Non-Hispanic Hispanic Visit a beach 48.1 54.6 Swimming lakes, ponds, etc. 45.0 52.3
Visit historic sites 45.8 50.5 Bicycling 35.0 42.3 Visit a farm setting 35.4 38.8
Visit prehistoric sites 20.3 28.0
Mountain biking 17.5 21.2
Percent participating in activities favored by Hispanics
NSRE Aug 2009 – Oct 2011
And how about Kids Participation?Up? Down? What is the Trend?
• National Kids Survey (Forest Service, University of Tennessee and University of Georgia)
• Outdoor Foundation Participation Survey
In collaboration with Susan Schexnayder and Mark Fly(Associate Director and Director, Human Dimensions Research Lab, University of Tennessee)
“Are the trends reported previously continuing, or is there deviation?”
None <1/2 hour/day
~1/2 hour/day
~1 hour/day
2-3 hours >4 hours0
10
20
30
40
50
Weekday Weekend day
Perc
ent
Percent of Youth 6 to 19 by time outdoors per day on weekdays and weekend days (2007-2012)
Day of WeekYouth who
participate in team sports
Youth who do not participate in team sports
Youth who do not participate in any
outdoor sports
Weekdays 150.7 108.9 103.0Weekend days 177.2 148.2 141.6
Team sports = playing or practicing team sports such as soccerbaseball, field hockey or footballOther sports = playing other sports such as tennis, golf, archery,or yard games
Average time outdoors in minutes per day by participation in sportsNKS
Time in places that are mostly natural
Male Female All Youth
- Percent -
None of it 30.4 59.6 42.3
About 1/4 of it 8.2 14.2 10.5
About 1/3 of it 5.3 3.5 4.8
About 1/2 of it 6.3 16.3 10.4
More than 1/2 of it 49.8 6.4 32.2Places that are mostly natural: in a woods or meadow, at a river or pond, at a nature center or on a greenway trail, or at a park.
Proportion of time outdoors spent in places that are mostly natural by genderNKS
Time in mostly natural places
6 to 9 years old
10 to 12 years old
13 to 15 years old
16 to 19 years old
- Percent -
None of it 54.63 37.50 48.72 38.89About 1/4 to 1/2 of it 23.61 39.77 32.05 32.48Over 1/2 of it 21.76 22.73 19.23 28.63
Places that are mostly natural: in a woods or meadow, at a river or pond, at a nature center or on a greenway trail, or at a park.
Percentage of youth by age and by amount of time in natural places
NKS
ActivitiesMale Female
- Percent participating -Just playing or hanging out outdoors 83.3 78.6Biking, jogging, walking, skate boarding, etc. 79.5 76.7Mobile devices outdoors---Listening to music, watching movies, networking, etc.
52.4 58.2
Reading, studying while outdoors 42.8 52.2Attending camps, field trips, outdoor classes 34.8 36.5Playing or practicing team sports 60.1 33.7Swimming, diving, snorkeling, etc. 29.5 30.9Playing other sports 37.9 30.0Hiking, camping, fishing, etc. 36.3 26.5Bird watching, wildlife viewing, etc. 30.1 25.6Riding motorcycles, ATVs, other off road vehicles
28.7 19.9
Percentages of Youth 6-19 by activity and gender
Other activities surveyed include boating, jet skiing, water skiing, rowing, kayaking, canoeing, surfing, snow skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing, etc.
NKS
Time outdoors
6-9 year old
females
16-19 years old females
All ages & both genders
- Percent -None 5.0 6.7 5.2<1/2 hour/day 9.3 15.9 5.02-3 hours/day 25.1 29.5 25.7>4 hours/day 42.6 25.3 45.5
Females with highest percentages spending less than 1/2 hour, and lowest percentages spending 2
or more hours on weekend daysNKS
Time outdoors
6-9 year old
females
13-15 years old
females
16-19 years old
females
All ages & both genders
- Percent -None 17.8 3.0 1.1 4.6<1/2 hour/day 10.6 13.9 13.3 6.02-3 hours/day 27.6 34.9 32.3 34.8>4 hours/day 13.8 19.3 15.2 23.7
Age and sex with highest percentages spending less than 1/2 hour, and lowest percentages spending 2 or
more hours outdoors on weekdaysNKS
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120
10
20
30
40
50
None 1/2-1 hour/day2-3 hours/day >4 hours/day
Years
Perc
ent
Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012. NONE = 0 to less than ½ hour per day.
Week days — Trend in percentage of youth 6-19 by time outdoors across 4 data collection periods
NKS
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120
10
20
30
40
50
None 1/2-1 hour/day2-3 hours/day >4 hours/day
Years
Perc
ent
Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012. NONE = 0 to less than ½ hour per day.
Weekend days — Trend in percentage of youth 6-19 by amount of time outdoors on weekend days across 4 data collection periodsNKS
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120
102030405060708090
100
Weekend >2 hours/day Week day >2 hours/day
Years
Perc
ent
Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012.
Trend in percentage of youth 6-19 spending time outdoors on weekend and on week days by time periodNKS
Footnote---Aiken and Harris (FWS) found a 15-year modest up-trend in youth hunting participation
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120
20406080
100120140160180200
Male Week days Male Weekend daysFemale Week days Female Weekend days
Years
Aver
age
Min
utes
Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012.
Trend in average minutes outdoors per day, weekdays and weekend days across 4 time periods
NKS
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-1202468
101214161820
Males Females
Years
Hou
rs p
er W
eek
Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012.
Trend in average hours of per week outdoors per person by males and females across 4 time periods
NKSNKS
ActivitiesPercent of 16-19 years old
Mobile devices for messaging, music, movies, etc. 68.6Just playing or hanging out outdoors 67.2Reading, studying while outdoors 56.2Attending camps, field trips, outdoor classes 34.1Bird watching, wildlife viewing, etc. 21.7
Outdoor activities offering potentials for connecting with late teenage youthNKS
Youth Participation—Outdoor Foundation Survey
• Participation by 6-12 year olds did not fall• Adolescents and young adults grew 1 percent• Female participation grew, those 18-24 by 5
percent• Parents with children participate more, 52
percent versus 46 percent without children• Overall, participation rates for young people
stopped falling because• 6-12 year olds remained level• 13-17 year olds grew from 60 to 62 percent
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Motivation HispanicAfrican-
American Asian Caucasian— percent of ages 6 to 17 —
It’s Cool 54 45 40 52Exercise 37 34 31 46Something new
36 33 40 31
Household participates
35 33 34 46
What Motivates Youth Participants
to Get Outside?
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Photo by Babs McDonald 2012
Youth Use of I/T
Technology
Technology 6-12 13-17 18-24
— percent —Use computer for outdoor activity information
26 40 62
Use technologies to plan
24 42 59
Share experiences 20 48 52
Use mobile technologies when participating
20 45 49
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Photo by Babs McDonald 2012
Forecasts---Recreation DemandJ.M. Bowker, H. Ken Cordell, Carter Betz, and Stan
Zarnoch, Southern Research StationAshley Askew and Lynn Seymour, UGA Dept of Statistics
2010 RPA Assessment Roll-Out Briefing
ObjectivesDevelop household-based models of recreation
participation and consumption (days)17 popular outdoor activities or aggregatesNational level Forecast activity participation and consumption
2008 - 20603 RPA Future Scenarios with climate alternatives:
Population growthDemographic changeEconomic growthLand use change…and 4 Climate alternatives for each
DataNSRE FS/UGA/UT (1999-2009)
90,000+ potential observationsHousehold-based Post-sample weightedDemographic variables
RPA Supply variables Recreation variables (various sources compiled by
Cordell FS, NORSIS, wilderness.net, etc.) Dave Wear RPA land use projections for A1B, A2, B2
RPA Forecasts and Woods & PooleEconomic dataPopulation Forecasts (Zarnoch and Cordell) Climate Data---Linda Joyce RPA Prism, Various
Simulations 2010 RPA Assessment Roll-Out Briefing
2010 RPA Assessment Roll-Out Briefing
DaysModel Step
Hurdle Model Prob part * mean days per participant E(Daysk ) = Probk * Daysk (Days>0)
SD= age, ethnicity, gender, education, income
Q= relevant supply, e.g., forest land w/i 100C= climate variables (temp, aridity index, etc)
Yields per capita days equations (Daysik)
Simulation StepDayskt based on projected SDkt Qkt Ckt
Combine Dayskt & participating populationktCreate index based on predicted totalsScale NSRE baselines (2005-2009 avg.) by index
Participation Model Influences Consistent with existing outdoor rec literature
Black (neg)Native American (pos)Asian (neg)Hispanic (neg) – except for Day HikingEduc (neg) – consumptive & motor activitiesEduc (pos) – nonconsumptive & challenge Income (pos) – most activitiesGender – boys still play more outsidePopulation density (neg) – crowding or urban effect?Resource availability (positive)Climate (generally negative)
Findings—across all scenarios and climate alts.Participation declining on per-capita basisParticipants increasing (pop change > per-capita)Days similar storyMore total recreation days and participants
2010 RPA Assessment Roll-Out Briefing
Highest growth rates for participant numbers : Developed skiing (50 to 127 percent) Equestrian activities (44 to 110 percent) Challenge activities (47 to 90 percent)D Day hiking (45 to 88 percent) Swimming (47 to 85 percent).
Findings—across all scenarios and climate alts.Averaged over all RPA scenarios and climate alts. greatest total days increase over the next 50 years: Nature viewing (13,597 to 14,635 million) Swimming (2,298 to 2,446 million) Day hiking (1,366 to 1,470 million) Developed site use (1,185 to 1,294 million) Birding (1,141 to 1,246 million).
Loss to least total days increase over next 50 years: Snowmobiling (-27 to 16 million) Hunting (-8 to 14 million) Undeveloped skiing (-5 to 29 million) Challenge activities (86 to 89 million) Floating (83 to 128 million).
Forecasts---U.S. Natural Resources
• Land development will continue to threaten the integrity of natural ecosystems.
• Climate change will alter natural ecosystems and affect their ability to provide goods and services.
• Competition for goods and services from natural ecosystems will increase.
• Geographic variation in resource responses to drivers of change will require regional and local strategies to address resource management issues.
Forecasts---U.S. Natural Resources
Urban and developed land use area increases across all scenarios.
Forest and rangeland use area declines in all scenarios, as do cropland and pasture use areas.
Land use change by RPA scenario2010-2060, conterminous United States
FYI---These forecasts are at county scale
Forecasts---U.S. Natural Resources
Change in nonfederal forest area, 2010-2060, conterminous United States
Forests are most impacted by urban and developed uses, with up to 8% of the forest land base in the South lost by 2060.
Public Land Threatened by Development
Housing growth in and near NFS and NPS lands, 1940-2000.
Low density development threatens ecosystem integrity.
Probability of annual
water shortage
Climate Change2060, A2-CGCM Current
2060, A2-MIROC
The vulnerability of the U.S. water supply will increase, especially in the Southwest and Great Plains.
Changes in temperature, precipitation, habitat quality, and habitat area will cause further stress on terrestrial wildlife habitat and affect the ability of species to migrate.
Climate change will have broad, lasting effects
Mean Terrestrial Climate Stress Index based on the average across alternative futures.
Forecasts of resource availability per capita by 2060
Instead of this table, use the new one Shela is
creating using U.S. totals from tables 7.2 – 7.10 in
the Supply GTR
Type of ResourceTotal acres
(thousand), 2008Per capita acres,
2008Projected per capita
acres, 2060Proportion of 2008 projected for 2060
Federal and State Park Land 627,319.2 2.06 1.40 0.68Total Water Area 164,252.7 0.54 0.37 0.68Non-Federal Forest 355,507.5 1.27 0.80 0.63Non-Federal Open Range and Pasture 497,090.9 1.70 1.11 0.66Ocean/Great Lakes Coastal Area 709,507.4 2.33 1.59 0.68Mountains 379,817.3 1.25 0.85 0.68Snow County Area 580,893.0 1.92 1.30 0.68Designated Federal Land 157,887.5 0.52 0.35 0.68
Businesses ( 2007) Businesses/capita Businesses/capita Proportion in 2060Recreation Businesses 267,920.0 0.88 0.60 0.68
Summary---U.S. Trends and Futures
Athens GA
• Are recent outdoor activity trends continuing or deviating from first decade trends--NSRE• Do recent trends in time outdoors by youth continue
or deviate from early trends observed in the National Kids Survey• What do projections of recreation participation
show? (Forest Service’s 2010 decennial Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) national assessment)• What is projected for natural resource
population and recreation resource availability• Observations and speculations about reported
trends and projections
Nature-based Outdoor Recreation Growth (number of people & annual participation days, 2000–2009
2000 2009100
150
200
250
20
40
60
196 210
37
52
Number Who Participate (million)Number of Activity Days (billion)
Year
Mill
ions
who
par
ticip
ate
Bill
ions
of d
ays
+40.1%
+7.1%
What does an update show? (2005-09 and 2010-11 (NSRE))
ActivityPercent participating
2005-2009 2010-2011Walk for pleasure 85.0 84.7Family gatherings outdoors 74.0 74.4 +Swimming, diving, etc. 61.3 66.1 +Sightseeing 52.7 60.8 +View/photograph other wildlife 50.2 54.1 +Picnicking 51.7 47.5View or photograph birds 35.7 41.4 +Boating 35.5 38.2 +Bicycling 37.5 35.6Fishing 34.2 35.0 +Snow/ice activities 24.9 26.6 +Developed camping 23.8 21.7Primitive camping 14.5 12.4
What is the Outdoor Foundation Survey Showing?Outdoor Recreation Participation Report 2011
General Findings• More young people got outside• Most significant increases were females,
African Americans, and Hispanics• More adult participants than non-
participants had had physical education or outdoor experiences as youth, 60 percent versus 21 percent
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Activity20061000s
20101000s
Bicycling 39,688 42,347
Birding 11,070 13,339
Camping 43,123 42,301
Hiking 29,863 32,496
Hunting 15,097 14,007
Running/
Jogging 38,719 50,159
Walking 101,229 114,068
Wildlife
Viewing 20,294 21,025
Five-Year TrendSource: Outdoor Foundation
Activity20061000s
20101000s
Canoeing 9,154 10,553Fishing - freshwater 43,100 38,860Fishing - saltwater 12,466 11,809Kayaking–recreational 4,134 6,465Jet skiing 6,918 7,753Sailing 3,390 3,869Water skiing 5,273 4,836
None <1/2 hour/day
~1/2 hour/day
~1 hour/day
2-3 hours >4 hours0
10
20
30
40
50
Weekday Weekend day
Perc
ent
Percent of Youth 6 to 19 by time outdoors per day on weekdays and weekend days (2007-2012)
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120
102030405060708090
100
Weekend >2 hours/day Week day >2 hours/day
Years
Perc
ent
Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012.
Trend in percentage of youth 6-19 spending time outdoors on weekend and on week days by time periodNKS
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-1202468
101214161820
Males Females
Years
Hou
rs p
er W
eek
Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012.
Trend in average hours of per week outdoors per person by males and females across 4 time periods
NKSNKS
Youth Use of I/T
Technology
Technology 6-12 13-17 18-24
— percent —Use computer for outdoor activity information
26 40 62
Use technologies to plan
24 42 59
Share experiences 20 48 52
Use mobile technologies when participating
20 45 49
Source: Outdoor Foundation
Photo by Babs McDonald 2012
Findings—across all scenarios and climate alts.
Participation declining on per-capita basisParticipants increasing (pop change > per-capita)Days similar storyMore total recreation days and participants
2010 RPA Assessment Roll-Out Briefing
Averaged over all RPA scenarios and climate alts. greatest total demand increase over the next 50 years: Nature viewing (13,597 to 14,635 million) Swimming (2,298 to 2,446 million) Day hiking (1,366 to 1,470 million) Developed site use (1,185 to 1,294 million) Birding (1,141 to 1,246 million).
Forecasts for the U. S. • Land development will continue to threaten the integrity of
natural ecosystems.• Climate change will alter natural ecosystems and affect
their ability to provide goods and services.• Competition for goods and services from natural
ecosystems will increase. • Geographic variation in resource responses to drivers of
change will require regional and local strategies to address resource management issues.
• Recreation resources per capita is projected to be about 2/3 what it/they are now by 2060.
• Yet, demand will rise substantially by that year.
Published research from Athens Group for the 2010 Assessment:1. County Population
Projections by scenario2. Recreation Demand Trends
and Futures in the U.S. to 2060
3. Natural Amenity Effects on Rural Population Migration in the U.S.
4. Recreation & Protected Land Resources & Futures
5. Participation Projections
Trends and Futures
The RPA Assessment The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act
(RPA) of 1974 mandates that every 10 years: national assessment of conditions/trends of natural resources all forest and rangelands, public and private
A snapshot of current U.S. forest and rangeland conditions and trends; identifies drivers of change; 50+ scientists w. shared databases, and projects 50 years into the future (2010-2060)
The Assessment includes outdoor recreation, fish/wildlife, wilderness, forests, water, range, urban forests, and potentials of climate change on resources
http://www.fs.fed.us/research/rpa/2010rpa
Snake River, Hells Canyon, Matt Reeves, 2012END