u.s. pear trends

Trends in U.S. Pear ProductionTrends in U.S. Pear Production

Chris ZanobiniChris ZanobiniCalifornia Pear Advisory California Pear Advisory

BoardBoardSacramento, CaliforniaSacramento, California

[email protected]@calpear.comm

Rachel B. ElkinsRachel B. ElkinsUniversity of California University of California Cooperative Extension,Cooperative Extension,Lakeport, CaliforniaLakeport, [email protected]@ucdavis.edu

Presented atPresented at

Great Lakes ExpoGreat Lakes Expo

December 8, 2009December 8, 2009

Many Thanks To:Many Thanks To:

Tara Baugher, PA State UniversityTara Baugher, PA State University

Steve Castagnoli, OR State UniversitySteve Castagnoli, OR State University

Bob McClain, CA Pear Advisory BoardBob McClain, CA Pear Advisory Board

Tim Smith, WA State UniversityTim Smith, WA State University

Daniel Suenram, UC Cooperative Extension, Daniel Suenram, UC Cooperative Extension,

Lake CountyLake County

David Sugar, OR State UniversityDavid Sugar, OR State University

North American Pear ProductionNorth American Pear ProductionUnited States 95%United States 95%

West Coast 98% of US ProductionWest Coast 98% of US Production• Washington 50%Washington 50%

• California 27%California 27%

• OregonOregon 23% 23%

Other Notable StatesOther Notable States• New York New York

• MichiganMichigan

• PennsylvaniaPennsylvania

Mexico & Canada 5%Mexico & Canada 5%

Source: Chris Zanobini, California Pear Advisory Board

U.S. Pear ProductionU.S. Pear Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Acres

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Production

1,000 Tons 1,000 Acres

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

1980 – 2007:1980 – 2007:

27% reduction in total acres27% reduction in total acres

3% reduction in total tons3% reduction in total tons

1980: ~11 tons per acre1980: ~11 tons per acre

2007: ~14.7 tons per acre2007: ~14.7 tons per acre

25% increase in production per acre25% increase in production per acre

897,400 Tons

81,000 Acres

873,000 Tons

59,500 Acres

Bearing AcreageBearing Acreage


1,000 Acres

25.524.4 24

16

20 19.2

16.217.8

1.221 1

0.80.80.85

0.90

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Washington California Oregon

New York Pennsylvania Michigan

2% 20% 9%

40% 20% 11%

US Pear Production by StateUS Pear Production by State1998-20081998-2008


1,000 Tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Washingon

California

Oregon

New York

Pennsylvania

Michigan

3%

25%

20%

10%

60%

43%

U.S. Pear Crop Utilization U.S. Pear Crop Utilization

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fresh

Processed

1,000 Tons


Fresh pear market has increased 60%increased 60%

Processed pear market has decreased 42%,decreased 42%, down 33% in the last 10 years alone!

More people are buying fresh pears, fewer are buying canned!

Per Capita ConsumptionPer Capita Consumption

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Canned Fresh Dried

Pounds

People are eating fewer pears!


There has been a 22% decrease22% decrease in total pear consumption,

especially canned pears!

USAUSA

Bartlett (Williams) PearBartlett (Williams) Pear

Approximately 22,240 acres Approximately 22,240 acres Largest produced variety in the US Largest produced variety in the US

(55%)(55%) 421,634 tons ( 5 year average)421,634 tons ( 5 year average) 35% Fresh Market 35% Fresh Market 59% Canned Fruit59% Canned Fruit 6% Baby Food, Dried and Juice6% Baby Food, Dried and Juice


Total US Bartlett (Williams) Total US Bartlett (Williams) ProductionProduction

2003-20082003-2008

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA

There has been a 16% decrease16% decrease in production in the last 10 years.

587

448423

0

100

1,000 Tons

200

300

400

500

600

700

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Anjou Pear ProductionAnjou Pear Production

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Million

Boxes

Source: Final Crop Reports, Winter Pear Control Committee

There was a 165% increase165% increase in Anjou pear production from 1971 to 1995!

Bartlett (Williams) Utilization Bartlett (Williams) Utilization by Marketby Market

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA

0

100

200

300

400

500

MARKETING YEAR

1,000 Tons

There has been a 28% increase28% increase in demand for fresh Bartlett pears.

There has been a 30% decline30% decline in the demand for processed Bartlett pears.

Canned Pear TrendsCanned Pear Trends(million cases)(million cases)

Canned Pear Data 2005 2006 2007

Starting I nventory 2.6 2.4 2.5Pack 6.4 7.0 6.5Total Supply 9.0 9.4 9.0Year End I nventory 2.4 2.5 2.6

Processors Sales 6.7 6.9 6.4

Exports 0.6 0.4 0.3US Domestic Sales 6.0 6.5 6.1I mports 1.5 1.6 1.5

Total Domestic Usage 7.5 8.2 7.6


Bartlett 55%

Anjou 31%

Bosc 8%

Reds* 4%

Comice

Seckel

Other**


U.S. Production by VarietyU.S. Production by Variety

*Reds Include: Red Clapp, Rubaiyat, Red Angelo, Red Comice, Regal Red, Crimson Gem, Red Silk, Red Satin, California, Cascade**Other includes: Packham, Forelle, Nelis, Taylor's Gold, Concorde

U.S. Imported PearsU.S. Imported Pears

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Argentina

Chile

China

South Korea

New Zealand

Others

1,000 Tons


67%

34%

1.6m%

970%

47%

78%

Imported Pear UtilizationImported Pear Utilization

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Fresh Canned Dried

(Percent of Domestic Market)


Increase in Imported PearsIncrease in Imported Pears

Fresh imported pears have increasedincreased

54% in the last 10 years.

• In 2006, fresh imported pears captured

almost ¼ of the U.S. market

Imported canned pears have

increasedincreased 382% in the last 10 years.


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07

Twelve Month Total Pear ImportsMillions of Cases

All Countries Excluding Thailand

2007 Canned Pear Imports2007 Canned Pear Imports

68%

25%

2%3%

2%

China

Thailand

Spain

South Africa

Others

•U.S. Imported 42,195 tons

•5.5 times the amount of exports

•Australia and South Africa displaced by China

•Quality of Chinese product is and issue

•Thailand is not a producer, but a packager

Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

“Cheap imported pears from China and Thailand are taking an increasing bite out of the market for canned pears in the United States.”

Chinese Canned Pear ExportsChinese Canned Pear Exports

7,487 8,955

11,680 13,386

13,700 19,352

15,536 22,568

19,368 20,403

23,536 41,579

0 25,000 50,000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

U.S.A.

World

•China is impacting the world

•Imports to the U.S. have increased 214% in the last five years

•Mainly foodservice market

•Questionable quality



0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07

Twelve Month China Pear Imports-CasesTwelve Month Moving Large China

Twelve Month Moving Small China

U.S. Pear ExportsU.S. Pear Exports

0

1020

304050

607080

90100

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mexico Canada Others Russia Taiwan Venezuela

1,000 Tons


Change in Top Export MarketsChange in Top Export Markets

59%59%56%56%7%7%

65%65%32%32%49%49%

45%45%966%966%86%86%

28%28%34%34%46.5%46.5%

4.7%4.7%10%10%6.6%6.6%

55%55%34%34%135%135%

TaiwanTaiwan

CanadaCanada

VenezuelaVenezuela

RussiaRussia

OthersOthers

MexicoMexico

1997-20071997-20072002-20072002-20071997-20021997-20025yr avg5yr avg 5yr avg5yr avg 10yr avg10yr avg


U.S. Imports vs. ExportsU.S. Imports vs. Exports

020406080

100120140160180200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Imports Exports Export Trend Import Trend

1,000 TonsExports

Imports

Exports have remained relatively steady while imports have increased.

U.S. pear exports still out number imports.


Exports:• There was a 15.25% increase15.25% increase from 1997 to

2002.• There was a 12.9% decrease12.9% decrease from 2002 to

2007.• There was an over all increase of 0.4%increase of 0.4% over

the last 10 years. Imports:

• There was a 0.25% decrease0.25% decrease between 1997 and 2002.

• There was a 37.25% increase37.25% increase from 2002 to 2007.

• There was an increase of 37%increase of 37% over the last 10 years.

U.S. Imports vs. ExportsU.S. Imports vs. Exports


• Around 3% of total Around 3% of total

productionproduction

• 7,800 tons7,800 tons

• Canada and Central Canada and Central

America largest America largest

marketmarket

• Product to Thailand is Product to Thailand is

repackaged and repackaged and

exported backexported back

Canned Pear ExportsCanned Pear Exports

47%

4%2%2%

14%

9%

23%

Canada Venezuela Thailand MexicoAustralia Costa Rica Other


050

100150200250300350400450500

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

1,000 Tons

ExportsExportsU.S. vs. ChinaU.S. vs. China

China 317%

U.S. 0.4%

Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA

NC140 trials in California, Oregon, Washington, New York, NC140 trials in California, Oregon, Washington, New York, Nova Scotia (Canada), Chihuahua (Mexico)Nova Scotia (Canada), Chihuahua (Mexico)

Keys to Future ProfitabilityKeys to Future Profitability

• Evaluation of Potential New, Size Controlling Rootstocks for European Pears

Efficient Cost-Effective ProductionEfficient Cost-Effective Production


• Mechanization – reduce dependence on Mechanization – reduce dependence on

manual labormanual labor




• Pest managementPest management


• Post-harvest qualityPost-harvest quality

Innovative, high quality productsInnovative, high quality products

• Cultivar breeding and evaluationCultivar breeding and evaluation

Keys to Future ProfitabilityKeys to Future Profitability Innovative, high quality productsInnovative, high quality products


•Value-added productsValue-added products

Innovative, high quality productsInnovative, high quality products


Innovative, high quality productsInnovative, high quality products•Value-added productsValue-added products

Effective marketing Effective marketing

• Domestic, exportsDomestic, exports

• Inter-generationalInter-generational

• Multi-culturalMulti-cultural


New CultivarsNew Cultivars

Hailey Red™(c.LT1)A sport of the Bartlett pear, Hailey Red is the best Red Bartlett discovered to date. It is just like the Bartlett, except it has an exceptional red color. It ripens the same time as the Bartlett. It is very juicy with white flesh. It does not need a pollinizer. Storage life is better than Bartlett, and holds red color better than other red pear varieties.

Thank YouThank You

u.s. pear trends

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pear exports source

tons source

pears source

anjou pear production

us pear production

canned pear imports

acres source

bartlett williams pear