us navy fleet numericalpp

8/14/2019 US Navy Fleet NumericalPP

1/16

Fleet Numerical MeteorologyFleet Numerical Meteorology

and Oceanography Centerand Oceanography Center

Mike Clancy and Ranjit PassiMike Clancy and Ranjit Passi

FNMOCFNMOC

7 Grace Hopper Ave., Stop 17 Grace Hopper Ave., Stop 1Monterey, CA 93943Monterey, CA 93943


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The principal operational weather prediction center within theThe principal operational weather prediction center within the

Department of Defense (DoD).Department of Defense (DoD).

Supports thousands of customers around the world with aSupports thousands of customers around the world with asophisticated and integrated suite of global and regionalsophisticated and integrated suite of global and regional

meteorological and oceanographic models, fed by one of themeteorological and oceanographic models, fed by one of the

worlds most complete realworlds most complete real--time met and ocean data bases.time met and ocean data bases.Operates powerful supercomputersOperates powerful supercomputers

and sophisticated product distributionand sophisticated product distribution

capabilities 24x7.capabilities 24x7.

Has close ties to NRL, the NavysHas close ties to NRL, the Navys

Corporate R&D LaboratoryCorporate R&D Laboratory

Fleet NumericalFleet Numerical


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MissionMission

To combine innovative technology with the best availableTo combine innovative technology with the best availablescience in order to provide the best weather andscience in order to provide the best weather and

oceanographic products, data and services to the operatingoceanographic products, data and services to the operating

forces of the DoD anywhere, anytime.forces of the DoD anywhere, anytime.

CustomersCustomers

US Navy & Marine CorpsUS Navy & Marine CorpsDoDDoD

NOAANOAA

US Coast GuardUS Coast GuardOther U.S. GovernmentOther U.S. Government

AgenciesAgencies

(CIA, NASA, DoE, etc.)(CIA, NASA, DoE, etc.)

Allied ForcesAllied Forces

The General PublicThe General Public


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Global ModelsGlobal Models

NOGAPSNOGAPS (Navy Operational Global(Navy Operational GlobalAtmospheric Prediction System)Atmospheric Prediction System)

T239L30 (239 Spectral Waves, 30T239L30 (239 Spectral Waves, 30vertical levels)vertical levels)

~55 km resolution (~55 km resolution ())

240 Processors, 8240 Processors, 8--10 min/forecast10 min/forecastdayday

Improved low level winds,Improved low level winds,

precipitation and tropical cycloneprecipitation and tropical cyclonetrackstracks

EFSEFS (Ensemble Forecast System)(Ensemble Forecast System) 10 day forecasts10 day forecasts --10 NOGAPS10 NOGAPS

membersmembers Perturbed initial conditionsPerturbed initial conditions

Ensemble meanEnsemble mean -- more skill atmore skill atlonger time scaleslonger time scales

WW3WW3 (Wave Watch III)(Wave Watch III) ~55 km resolution (~55 km resolution ())

Forced by NOGAPSForced by NOGAPS


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Global Models (continued)Global Models (continued)

OTISOTIS (Optimum Thermal(Optimum ThermalInterpolation SystemInterpolation System))

11 resolutionresolution

Temperature andTemperature andsalinity, 0salinity, 0--4000 m4000 m

Anomalies fromAnomalies fromclimatologyclimatology

Popular El Nino sitePopular El Nino site

TOPSTOPS (Thermodynamic(ThermodynamicOcean Prediction System)Ocean Prediction System)

11 resolution, 0resolution, 0--400 m400 m Ocean thermal structureOcean thermal structure

(especially the surface(especially the surfacemixed layer)mixed layer)

Surface currentsSurface currents


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Regional ModelsRegional Models

COAMPSCOAMPS (Coupled Ocean(Coupled OceanAtmosphere MesoscaleAtmosphere Mesoscale

Prediction System)Prediction System) StateState--ofof--thethe--art mesoscaleart mesoscale

forecast system, includingforecast system, including

data assimilationdata assimilation

Triply nested at 54Triply nested at 54--1818--66

km resolution withinkm resolution within

NOGAPSNOGAPS

WW3WW3 (Wave Watch III)(Wave Watch III)

Coupled to regionalCoupled to regionalCOAMPS at matchingCOAMPS at matchingresolutionresolution

Nested within GlobalNested within GlobalWW3WW3


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Regional Models (continued)Regional Models (continued)

GFDNGFDN (Geophysical Fluid(Geophysical FluidDynamics LabDynamics Lab--Navy)Navy)

MovingMoving--nest tropical cyclonenest tropical cyclone

modelmodel Multiple stormsMultiple storms

Nested within NOGAPSNested within NOGAPS

PIPSPIPS (Polar Ice Prediction System)(Polar Ice Prediction System) Arctic seaArctic sea--ice model withice model with

underlying ocean modelunderlying ocean model

Ice thickness, concentrationIce thickness, concentrationand driftand drift

OTIS/TOPSOTIS/TOPS Same as global models, but atSame as global models, but at

1/41/4oo resolution (~27 km)resolution (~27 km)


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UpcomingUpcoming

Model ImprovementsModel ImprovementsNOGAPSNOGAPS

Navy version of 3D variational assimilationNavy version of 3D variational assimilation --NAVDASNAVDAS

AMSUAMSU--A Radiance AssimilationA Radiance Assimilation

HighHigh--resolution marine wind analysisresolution marine wind analysis

Improved cloud parameterizationImproved cloud parameterization

COAMPSCOAMPS

Resolution IncreasesResolution Increases

Dynamically moving TC nestsDynamically moving TC nests Various physics improvementsVarious physics improvements

33--D ocean MVOI analysisD ocean MVOI analysis

NAVDAS, AMSUNAVDAS, AMSU--AA Improved upper boundary conditionImproved upper boundary condition


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Upcoming ModelUpcoming Model

Improvements (Continued)Improvements (Continued)NCODA: NRL Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation SystemNCODA: NRL Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System

Presently under transition to FNMOCPresently under transition to FNMOC

33--D Multivariate Optimum Interpolation SystemD Multivariate Optimum Interpolation System

Nested Domains capability for use with COAMPSNested Domains capability for use with COAMPS

Permits various grid projectionsPermits various grid projections

In data sparse regions, supplements subsurface temperature/salinIn data sparse regions, supplements subsurface temperature/salinity withity withsynthetic profiles using MODASsynthetic profiles using MODAS

Currently, NCODA configured forCurrently, NCODA configured for

Doubly nestedDoubly nested northWATLnorthWATL (mercator) and north WPAC (Lambert Conformal)(mercator) and north WPAC (Lambert Conformal)

T239 Gaussian grid for NOGAPST239 Gaussian grid for NOGAPS

Spherical 1 deg (GLBL) and deg (HRES) globalSpherical 1 deg (GLBL) and deg (HRES) global

Spherical Polar Ice RegionsSpherical Polar Ice Regions


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11/16

DoD HPC ModernizationDoD HPC Modernization

Program (HPCMP)Program (HPCMP)Fleet Numerical was designated an HPCMPFleet Numerical was designated an HPCMP

Distributed Center in FY03.Distributed Center in FY03.

Has resulted in the installation of a 256Has resulted in the installation of a 256--processorprocessor

SGI Origin 3900 system at Fleet Numerical.SGI Origin 3900 system at Fleet Numerical.

The Fleet Numerical Distributed Center system isThe Fleet Numerical Distributed Center system is

being used to support development and testing ofbeing used to support development and testing ofvery high resolution (2very high resolution (2--3 km) operational3 km) operational

implementations of COAMPS, as COAMPSimplementations of COAMPS, as COAMPS

transitions into the Weather Research andtransitions into the Weather Research and

Forecast (WRF) mesoscale modeling framework.Forecast (WRF) mesoscale modeling framework.

Support for atmospheric transport and dispersionSupport for atmospheric transport and dispersion

modeling and coastal ocean modeling is a primarymodeling and coastal ocean modeling is a primary

motivation for seeking the higher resolutionmotivation for seeking the higher resolutionCOAMPS/WRF.COAMPS/WRF.


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GODAE ServerGODAE Server

With oversight from the U.S. Global Ocean Data Assimilation ExpeWith oversight from the U.S. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experimentriment

(GODAE) Steering Committee and funding from the Office of Naval(GODAE) Steering Committee and funding from the Office of Naval ResearchResearch

(ONR), Fleet Numerical hosts the U.S. GODAE Monterey Data Server(ONR), Fleet Numerical hosts the U.S. GODAE Monterey Data Server..

Development of the U.S. GODAE Server is being done through a parDevelopment of the U.S. GODAE Server is being done through a partnershiptnership

of Fleet Numerical andof Fleet Numerical andNOAA'sNOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Lab (PMEL).Pacific Marine Environmental Lab (PMEL).

The server is intended to support GODAE ocean modelling and dataThe server is intended to support GODAE ocean modelling and dataassimilation research.assimilation research.

The server hostsThe server hostsInIn--situsitu oceanographic dataoceanographic data

Atmospheric forcing fieldsAtmospheric forcing fields

suitable for driving ocean modelssuitable for driving ocean models

Unique GODAE data sets,Unique GODAE data sets,

including demonstration oceanincluding demonstration ocean

model productsmodel products


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FNMOC IN TRANSITIONFNMOC IN TRANSITION

In long run, FNMOC committed to a coupled atmosphereIn long run, FNMOC committed to a coupled atmosphere--oceanocean--iceice

forecast system, with data assimilation as a part of operationalforecast system, with data assimilation as a part of operationalNWPNWP

suite for Navysuite for Navy

Need to respond to constraints on budget and available computerNeed to respond to constraints on budget and available computer

cycles; no 6.4 funds for POP transitioncycles; no 6.4 funds for POP transition

Interim step, maintain/develop minimum/necessary infrastructureInterim step, maintain/develop minimum/necessary infrastructure

towards couplingtowards coupling

consider loose coupling between NOGAPS running at FNMOC andconsider loose coupling between NOGAPS running at FNMOC and

NCOM running at NAVONCOM running at NAVO

Transition and run NCODA operationallyTransition and run NCODA operationally Channel limited resources toward direct support of a limited numChannel limited resources toward direct support of a limited number ofber of

key warfighter questionskey warfighter questions


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Coupled Ocean/AtmosphereCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere

Modeling ExperimentsModeling Experiments NRL and FNMOC ran oneNRL and FNMOC ran one--way coupled ocean/atmosphereway coupled ocean/atmosphere

modeling experiments with POP (ocean model) andmodeling experiments with POP (ocean model) and

NOGAPS (atmosphere model)NOGAPS (atmosphere model)

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

The value of using forecastThe value of using forecast--analysisanalysis--forecast incremental updateforecast incremental update

cycle similar to the meteorological data assimilation processcycle similar to the meteorological data assimilation process

Low resolution (1/2 degree) ocean model shows measurableLow resolution (1/2 degree) ocean model shows measurable

forecast skill (temperature and currents) out to 7 daysforecast skill (temperature and currents) out to 7 days

Experience will be useful for future fully coupled modelExperience will be useful for future fully coupled modelimplementations using different models, e.g., NCOM andimplementations using different models, e.g., NCOM and

NOGAPS; HYCOM and NOGAPSNOGAPS; HYCOM and NOGAPS


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Summary and OutlookSummary and Outlook

Fleet Numerical operates a number of global and regional meteoroFleet Numerical operates a number of global and regional meteorological andlogical and

oceanographic models, and related satellite processing capabilitoceanographic models, and related satellite processing capabilities.ies.

Although the warfighter is the primary customer, many products aAlthough the warfighter is the primary customer, many products are currentlyre currently

available to the scientific community and the general public, pravailable to the scientific community and the general public, primarily through theimarily through theGODAE Server.GODAE Server.

Product distribution is increasingly based on leadingProduct distribution is increasingly based on leading--edge application of Webedge application of Web

and eand e--businessbusiness--like technology.like technology.

Guided by Sea Power 21 principles andGuided by Sea Power 21 principles and

consideration of key warfighter decisions it canconsideration of key warfighter decisions it can

influence, Fleet Numerical is transforming itselfinfluence, Fleet Numerical is transforming itself

into a more focused and flexible organization.into a more focused and flexible organization.Less general, more focusedLess general, more focused

Less volume, even more qualityLess volume, even more quality

Less scheduled, more flexibleLess scheduled, more flexible

Fleet Numerical will participate fully in numerical weather predFleet Numerical will participate fully in numerical weather prediction initiatives withiction initiatives withAFWA and NCEP (e.g., WRF), and ocean modeling efforts with NAVOCAFWA and NCEP (e.g., WRF), and ocean modeling efforts with NAVOCEANOEANO

(e.g., NCOM, HYCOM).(e.g., NCOM, HYCOM).


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A Typical Day In The OfficeA Typical Day In The Office

Joint METOC ViewerJoint METOC Viewer

(pre(pre--formatted charts)formatted charts)

82,192 daily82,192 daily

METCAST ChartsMETCAST Charts

(customer(customer--tailored)tailored)

13,150,684 daily13,150,684 daily

Remote CustomerRemote Customer

Modem DialupModem Dialup


Aviation FlightAviation Flight

Plans(OPARS)Plans(OPARS)

240 daily240 daily

Hurricane/TropicalHurricane/Tropical

Satellite ProductsSatellite Products

100 daily100 daily

INTEL CommunityINTEL Community

Classified UsersClassified Users


High Volume (FTP) CustomersHigh Volume (FTP) CustomersSpecialized ProductsSpecialized Products

(Air Force, NAVO, NOAA, others)(Air Force, NAVO, NOAA, others)

84,144

INTERNET Products:INTERNET Products:~1 million/day avg~1 million/day avg

(100 K(100 K-- 5 M Web hits5 M Web hits//day)day)84,144

13,340,917 products provided daily; ~150/sec13,340,917 products provided daily; ~150/sec

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