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Fleet Numerical MeteorologyFleet Numerical Meteorology
and Oceanography Centerand Oceanography Center
Mike Clancy and Ranjit PassiMike Clancy and Ranjit Passi
FNMOCFNMOC
7 Grace Hopper Ave., Stop 17 Grace Hopper Ave., Stop 1Monterey, CA 93943Monterey, CA 93943
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The principal operational weather prediction center within theThe principal operational weather prediction center within the
Department of Defense (DoD).Department of Defense (DoD).
Supports thousands of customers around the world with aSupports thousands of customers around the world with asophisticated and integrated suite of global and regionalsophisticated and integrated suite of global and regional
meteorological and oceanographic models, fed by one of themeteorological and oceanographic models, fed by one of the
worlds most complete realworlds most complete real--time met and ocean data bases.time met and ocean data bases.Operates powerful supercomputersOperates powerful supercomputers
and sophisticated product distributionand sophisticated product distribution
capabilities 24x7.capabilities 24x7.
Has close ties to NRL, the NavysHas close ties to NRL, the Navys
Corporate R&D LaboratoryCorporate R&D Laboratory
Fleet NumericalFleet Numerical
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MissionMission
To combine innovative technology with the best availableTo combine innovative technology with the best availablescience in order to provide the best weather andscience in order to provide the best weather and
oceanographic products, data and services to the operatingoceanographic products, data and services to the operating
forces of the DoD anywhere, anytime.forces of the DoD anywhere, anytime.
CustomersCustomers
US Navy & Marine CorpsUS Navy & Marine CorpsDoDDoD
NOAANOAA
US Coast GuardUS Coast GuardOther U.S. GovernmentOther U.S. Government
AgenciesAgencies
(CIA, NASA, DoE, etc.)(CIA, NASA, DoE, etc.)
Allied ForcesAllied Forces
The General PublicThe General Public
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Global ModelsGlobal Models
NOGAPSNOGAPS (Navy Operational Global(Navy Operational GlobalAtmospheric Prediction System)Atmospheric Prediction System)
T239L30 (239 Spectral Waves, 30T239L30 (239 Spectral Waves, 30vertical levels)vertical levels)
~55 km resolution (~55 km resolution ())
240 Processors, 8240 Processors, 8--10 min/forecast10 min/forecastdayday
Improved low level winds,Improved low level winds,
precipitation and tropical cycloneprecipitation and tropical cyclonetrackstracks
EFSEFS (Ensemble Forecast System)(Ensemble Forecast System) 10 day forecasts10 day forecasts --10 NOGAPS10 NOGAPS
membersmembers Perturbed initial conditionsPerturbed initial conditions
Ensemble meanEnsemble mean -- more skill atmore skill atlonger time scaleslonger time scales
WW3WW3 (Wave Watch III)(Wave Watch III) ~55 km resolution (~55 km resolution ())
Forced by NOGAPSForced by NOGAPS
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Global Models (continued)Global Models (continued)
OTISOTIS (Optimum Thermal(Optimum ThermalInterpolation SystemInterpolation System))
11 resolutionresolution
Temperature andTemperature andsalinity, 0salinity, 0--4000 m4000 m
Anomalies fromAnomalies fromclimatologyclimatology
Popular El Nino sitePopular El Nino site
TOPSTOPS (Thermodynamic(ThermodynamicOcean Prediction System)Ocean Prediction System)
11 resolution, 0resolution, 0--400 m400 m Ocean thermal structureOcean thermal structure
(especially the surface(especially the surfacemixed layer)mixed layer)
Surface currentsSurface currents
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Regional ModelsRegional Models
COAMPSCOAMPS (Coupled Ocean(Coupled OceanAtmosphere MesoscaleAtmosphere Mesoscale
Prediction System)Prediction System) StateState--ofof--thethe--art mesoscaleart mesoscale
forecast system, includingforecast system, including
data assimilationdata assimilation
Triply nested at 54Triply nested at 54--1818--66
km resolution withinkm resolution within
NOGAPSNOGAPS
WW3WW3 (Wave Watch III)(Wave Watch III)
Coupled to regionalCoupled to regionalCOAMPS at matchingCOAMPS at matchingresolutionresolution
Nested within GlobalNested within GlobalWW3WW3
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Regional Models (continued)Regional Models (continued)
GFDNGFDN (Geophysical Fluid(Geophysical FluidDynamics LabDynamics Lab--Navy)Navy)
MovingMoving--nest tropical cyclonenest tropical cyclone
modelmodel Multiple stormsMultiple storms
Nested within NOGAPSNested within NOGAPS
PIPSPIPS (Polar Ice Prediction System)(Polar Ice Prediction System) Arctic seaArctic sea--ice model withice model with
underlying ocean modelunderlying ocean model
Ice thickness, concentrationIce thickness, concentrationand driftand drift
OTIS/TOPSOTIS/TOPS Same as global models, but atSame as global models, but at
1/41/4oo resolution (~27 km)resolution (~27 km)
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UpcomingUpcoming
Model ImprovementsModel ImprovementsNOGAPSNOGAPS
Navy version of 3D variational assimilationNavy version of 3D variational assimilation --NAVDASNAVDAS
AMSUAMSU--A Radiance AssimilationA Radiance Assimilation
HighHigh--resolution marine wind analysisresolution marine wind analysis
Improved cloud parameterizationImproved cloud parameterization
COAMPSCOAMPS
Resolution IncreasesResolution Increases
Dynamically moving TC nestsDynamically moving TC nests Various physics improvementsVarious physics improvements
33--D ocean MVOI analysisD ocean MVOI analysis
NAVDAS, AMSUNAVDAS, AMSU--AA Improved upper boundary conditionImproved upper boundary condition
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Upcoming ModelUpcoming Model
Improvements (Continued)Improvements (Continued)NCODA: NRL Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation SystemNCODA: NRL Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System
Presently under transition to FNMOCPresently under transition to FNMOC
33--D Multivariate Optimum Interpolation SystemD Multivariate Optimum Interpolation System
Nested Domains capability for use with COAMPSNested Domains capability for use with COAMPS
Permits various grid projectionsPermits various grid projections
In data sparse regions, supplements subsurface temperature/salinIn data sparse regions, supplements subsurface temperature/salinity withity withsynthetic profiles using MODASsynthetic profiles using MODAS
Currently, NCODA configured forCurrently, NCODA configured for
Doubly nestedDoubly nested northWATLnorthWATL (mercator) and north WPAC (Lambert Conformal)(mercator) and north WPAC (Lambert Conformal)
T239 Gaussian grid for NOGAPST239 Gaussian grid for NOGAPS
Spherical 1 deg (GLBL) and deg (HRES) globalSpherical 1 deg (GLBL) and deg (HRES) global
Spherical Polar Ice RegionsSpherical Polar Ice Regions
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DoD HPC ModernizationDoD HPC Modernization
Program (HPCMP)Program (HPCMP)Fleet Numerical was designated an HPCMPFleet Numerical was designated an HPCMP
Distributed Center in FY03.Distributed Center in FY03.
Has resulted in the installation of a 256Has resulted in the installation of a 256--processorprocessor
SGI Origin 3900 system at Fleet Numerical.SGI Origin 3900 system at Fleet Numerical.
The Fleet Numerical Distributed Center system isThe Fleet Numerical Distributed Center system is
being used to support development and testing ofbeing used to support development and testing ofvery high resolution (2very high resolution (2--3 km) operational3 km) operational
implementations of COAMPS, as COAMPSimplementations of COAMPS, as COAMPS
transitions into the Weather Research andtransitions into the Weather Research and
Forecast (WRF) mesoscale modeling framework.Forecast (WRF) mesoscale modeling framework.
Support for atmospheric transport and dispersionSupport for atmospheric transport and dispersion
modeling and coastal ocean modeling is a primarymodeling and coastal ocean modeling is a primary
motivation for seeking the higher resolutionmotivation for seeking the higher resolutionCOAMPS/WRF.COAMPS/WRF.
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GODAE ServerGODAE Server
With oversight from the U.S. Global Ocean Data Assimilation ExpeWith oversight from the U.S. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experimentriment
(GODAE) Steering Committee and funding from the Office of Naval(GODAE) Steering Committee and funding from the Office of Naval ResearchResearch
(ONR), Fleet Numerical hosts the U.S. GODAE Monterey Data Server(ONR), Fleet Numerical hosts the U.S. GODAE Monterey Data Server..
Development of the U.S. GODAE Server is being done through a parDevelopment of the U.S. GODAE Server is being done through a partnershiptnership
of Fleet Numerical andof Fleet Numerical andNOAA'sNOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Lab (PMEL).Pacific Marine Environmental Lab (PMEL).
The server is intended to support GODAE ocean modelling and dataThe server is intended to support GODAE ocean modelling and dataassimilation research.assimilation research.
The server hostsThe server hostsInIn--situsitu oceanographic dataoceanographic data
Atmospheric forcing fieldsAtmospheric forcing fields
suitable for driving ocean modelssuitable for driving ocean models
Unique GODAE data sets,Unique GODAE data sets,
including demonstration oceanincluding demonstration ocean
model productsmodel products
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FNMOC IN TRANSITIONFNMOC IN TRANSITION
In long run, FNMOC committed to a coupled atmosphereIn long run, FNMOC committed to a coupled atmosphere--oceanocean--iceice
forecast system, with data assimilation as a part of operationalforecast system, with data assimilation as a part of operationalNWPNWP
suite for Navysuite for Navy
Need to respond to constraints on budget and available computerNeed to respond to constraints on budget and available computer
cycles; no 6.4 funds for POP transitioncycles; no 6.4 funds for POP transition
Interim step, maintain/develop minimum/necessary infrastructureInterim step, maintain/develop minimum/necessary infrastructure
towards couplingtowards coupling
consider loose coupling between NOGAPS running at FNMOC andconsider loose coupling between NOGAPS running at FNMOC and
NCOM running at NAVONCOM running at NAVO
Transition and run NCODA operationallyTransition and run NCODA operationally Channel limited resources toward direct support of a limited numChannel limited resources toward direct support of a limited number ofber of
key warfighter questionskey warfighter questions
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Coupled Ocean/AtmosphereCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere
Modeling ExperimentsModeling Experiments NRL and FNMOC ran oneNRL and FNMOC ran one--way coupled ocean/atmosphereway coupled ocean/atmosphere
modeling experiments with POP (ocean model) andmodeling experiments with POP (ocean model) and
NOGAPS (atmosphere model)NOGAPS (atmosphere model)
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
The value of using forecastThe value of using forecast--analysisanalysis--forecast incremental updateforecast incremental update
cycle similar to the meteorological data assimilation processcycle similar to the meteorological data assimilation process
Low resolution (1/2 degree) ocean model shows measurableLow resolution (1/2 degree) ocean model shows measurable
forecast skill (temperature and currents) out to 7 daysforecast skill (temperature and currents) out to 7 days
Experience will be useful for future fully coupled modelExperience will be useful for future fully coupled modelimplementations using different models, e.g., NCOM andimplementations using different models, e.g., NCOM and
NOGAPS; HYCOM and NOGAPSNOGAPS; HYCOM and NOGAPS
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Summary and OutlookSummary and Outlook
Fleet Numerical operates a number of global and regional meteoroFleet Numerical operates a number of global and regional meteorological andlogical and
oceanographic models, and related satellite processing capabilitoceanographic models, and related satellite processing capabilities.ies.
Although the warfighter is the primary customer, many products aAlthough the warfighter is the primary customer, many products are currentlyre currently
available to the scientific community and the general public, pravailable to the scientific community and the general public, primarily through theimarily through theGODAE Server.GODAE Server.
Product distribution is increasingly based on leadingProduct distribution is increasingly based on leading--edge application of Webedge application of Web
and eand e--businessbusiness--like technology.like technology.
Guided by Sea Power 21 principles andGuided by Sea Power 21 principles and
consideration of key warfighter decisions it canconsideration of key warfighter decisions it can
influence, Fleet Numerical is transforming itselfinfluence, Fleet Numerical is transforming itself
into a more focused and flexible organization.into a more focused and flexible organization.Less general, more focusedLess general, more focused
Less volume, even more qualityLess volume, even more quality
Less scheduled, more flexibleLess scheduled, more flexible
Fleet Numerical will participate fully in numerical weather predFleet Numerical will participate fully in numerical weather prediction initiatives withiction initiatives withAFWA and NCEP (e.g., WRF), and ocean modeling efforts with NAVOCAFWA and NCEP (e.g., WRF), and ocean modeling efforts with NAVOCEANOEANO
(e.g., NCOM, HYCOM).(e.g., NCOM, HYCOM).
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A Typical Day In The OfficeA Typical Day In The Office
Joint METOC ViewerJoint METOC Viewer
(pre(pre--formatted charts)formatted charts)
82,192 daily82,192 daily
METCAST ChartsMETCAST Charts
(customer(customer--tailored)tailored)
13,150,684 daily13,150,684 daily
Remote CustomerRemote Customer
Modem DialupModem Dialup
10,506 daily10,506 daily
Aviation FlightAviation Flight
Plans(OPARS)Plans(OPARS)
240 daily240 daily
Hurricane/TropicalHurricane/Tropical
Satellite ProductsSatellite Products
100 daily100 daily
INTEL CommunityINTEL Community
Classified UsersClassified Users
13,151 daily13,151 daily
High Volume (FTP) CustomersHigh Volume (FTP) CustomersSpecialized ProductsSpecialized Products
(Air Force, NAVO, NOAA, others)(Air Force, NAVO, NOAA, others)
84,144
INTERNET Products:INTERNET Products:~1 million/day avg~1 million/day avg
(100 K(100 K-- 5 M Web hits5 M Web hits//day)day)84,144
13,340,917 products provided daily; ~150/sec13,340,917 products provided daily; ~150/sec