U.S Drought Highlights Since U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2005October 2005

Douglas Le ComteDouglas Le Comte

NOAA/CPCNOAA/CPC

31st Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop31st Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

October 23-27, 2006October 23-27, 2006

OutlineOutline

•Drought HighlightsDrought Highlights

• Major development in the Southwest last winterMajor development in the Southwest last winter

• Plains states by summerPlains states by summer

• Near-record monsoon rains relieve Southwest drought. Near-record monsoon rains relieve Southwest drought.

•Drought ForecastsDrought Forecasts—How are we doing?—How are we doing?

The West Flip-Flops Once Again!The West Flip-Flops Once Again!

Recent Cold Season (2005-06)

Previous Cold Season (2004-05)

October vs April DroughtOctober vs April Drought

Cold Season PrecipitationCold Season Precipitation

Driest Dec-Feb in AZ2nd driest in NM and OK

Snow Water Content April 2006Snow Water Content April 2006

Less than 10%!

Streamflow Forecasts April 1, 2006Streamflow Forecasts April 1, 2006

Spring-Summer ChangesSpring-Summer Changes

117 deg. F on 7/15 in Pierre SD

NM = wettestJun-Aug

Peak Drought Past 12 MonthsPeak Drought Past 12 Months

Corn and Soybean ProductionCorn and Soybean Production

Corn Belt did fine again

Drought Affected CottonDrought Affected Cotton

Major Drought Impacts to Crops in the Plains—Major Drought Impacts to Crops in the Plains—Lesser in the SoutheastLesser in the Southeast

• Durum wheat production dropped 47% from last year (mainly North Durum wheat production dropped 47% from last year (mainly North Dakota drought)Dakota drought)

• Oat production down 18%--lowest on record!Oat production down 18%--lowest on record!

• Barley, down 15%, lowest since 1936!Barley, down 15%, lowest since 1936!

• Hard red winter wheat dropped 27% (mainly Kansas to Texas)Hard red winter wheat dropped 27% (mainly Kansas to Texas)

• Texas wheat down 65%! (over $200 mil.); sorghum down 26%Texas wheat down 65%! (over $200 mil.); sorghum down 26%

• Oklahoma sorghum dropped 35%; wheat down 36%Oklahoma sorghum dropped 35%; wheat down 36%

• Alabama corn dropped 52%Alabama corn dropped 52%

• Corn in Texas and South Dakota dropped 20%Corn in Texas and South Dakota dropped 20%

• Texas peanuts dropped 43%; upland cotton down 36%Texas peanuts dropped 43%; upland cotton down 36%

Record Modern-Day Fire SeasonRecord Modern-Day Fire Season

Lake McConaughy NE June 2006Lake McConaughy NE June 2006

Water should Be up to the boom

Man standing

Changes to October 17, 2006Changes to October 17, 2006

Global Vegetation ImageGlobal Vegetation ImageOct 15, 2006Oct 15, 2006

Devastating drought

The Seasonal Drought OutlooksThe Seasonal Drought Outlooks

Selected Good-Performing Drought Outlook Selected Good-Performing Drought Outlook ToolsTools

• 2-Week Soil Moisture2-Week Soil Moisture

• Ensemble CCA and CASEnsemble CCA and CAS

• UKMET SeasonUKMET Season

• NCDC Palmer Drought Amelioration Probability MapsNCDC Palmer Drought Amelioration Probability Maps

Better Summer Forecast Tools in 2006Better Summer Forecast Tools in 2006

How Are We Doing?How Are We Doing?

Latched on to S Plains Drought Early Latched on to S Plains Drought Early December 2005 and SW Drought mid-DecDecember 2005 and SW Drought mid-Dec

Keyed in on N Plains Development early July Keyed in on N Plains Development early July 20062006

Time Series of Verification ScoresTime Series of Verification Scores

Mean Pct Correct = 51% (was 59% last year)Mean Improvement over Persistence = 14% (was 14%)

Drought Outlook Verification Score

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul'03

Oct'03

Jan'04

Apr'04

Jul'04

Oct'04

Jan'05

Apr'05

Jul_r'05

Sep'05

Nov'05

Jan'06

Apr'06

Jul_r'06

Date of Forecast

Pe

rce

nt

of

Are

a C

orr

ec

t

Percent of Area Correct Persistence Score MEAN SCORE MEAN Persistence

Seasonal ScoresSeasonal Scores

• Forecasts made in NDJ = 63Forecasts made in NDJ = 63

• FMA = 45FMA = 45

• MJJ = 46MJJ = 46

• ASO = 48ASO = 48

Verification Scores vs CPC LL Verification Scores vs CPC LL Precipitation OutlooksPrecipitation Outlooks

• Correlation of Drought Outlook Scores with HSS Correlation of Drought Outlook Scores with HSS for CPC 3-month precipitation outlooks = .33 (34 for CPC 3-month precipitation outlooks = .33 (34 Outlooks)Outlooks)

• When Drought Outlook Scores exceed 60, mean When Drought Outlook Scores exceed 60, mean HSS = +5HSS = +5

• When Drought Outlook Scores less than 40, mean When Drought Outlook Scores less than 40, mean HSS = -1HSS = -1

• Better seasonal precipitation forecasts would Better seasonal precipitation forecasts would help! (Mean HSS = +3)help! (Mean HSS = +3)

Selected Future ImprovementsSelected Future Improvements

• NCEP-CPC-EMC-CTB-NLDAS-NASA collaboration NCEP-CPC-EMC-CTB-NLDAS-NASA collaboration effort to support NIDISeffort to support NIDIS

• Collaboration with Univ. of WA and Princeton to Collaboration with Univ. of WA and Princeton to improve soil moisture monitoring and forecastingimprove soil moisture monitoring and forecasting

• Improved multi-model seasonal forecastsImproved multi-model seasonal forecasts

• Research leading to improved understanding of Research leading to improved understanding of the underlying causes of drought (e.g., air-sea and the underlying causes of drought (e.g., air-sea and ground-air interactions)ground-air interactions)

Parting WisdomParting Wisdom

• ““Just as in being chased by a bear, when Just as in being chased by a bear, when you only need to be faster than the next you only need to be faster than the next guy, in forecasting, you don’t have to be guy, in forecasting, you don’t have to be right all the time, just better than the right all the time, just better than the competition.”competition.”

D. Le ComteD. Le Comte

Potential Water Supplies Off to a Good Start Potential Water Supplies Off to a Good Start Colorado Front RangeColorado Front Range

Loveland Basin Oct. 22, 2006 Elev. 11900 ft.Loveland Basin Oct. 22, 2006 Elev. 11900 ft.