urban agriculture futures introduction

Urban Agriculture Futures

a multistakeholder ‘think-and-do’ laba multistakeholder ‘think-and-do’ labPhilippe Vandenbroeck, shiftNOctober 2009

can we imagine a future in which …can we imagine a future in which …

... we will need to

get our hands

dirty to enjoy our

daily meal ?

... cities will be

regenerative regenerative

systems, putting

back what they

have taken?

... our postindustrial

societies might societies might

learn a survival trick

or two from the

world’s urban poor ?

... access to and

ownership of

urban space will

be contested and

a cause for social a cause for social

strife?

URBAN AGRICULTURE FUTURES

an invitation to join a Collaborative think-do tankCollaborative think-do tankto collaboratively make sense of these questionsand act on that understanding

1 Project2 Predicament3 Practice

URBAN AGRICULTURE FUTURES

3 Practice4 Prospects5 Promise

PROJECTPROJECT

> a challenge

Feeding a hungry world gets harder,

even with all the tools ...

International Herald Tribune, frontpage 23 October 2009

> a challenge

Frontpage International Herald Tribune

23 October 2009

> a project

Urban agriculture has

been a much undervalued

source of food, income,

environmental and social

benefits for the world’s

rapidly growing urban

Imag

e: iStockph

oto

rapidly growing urban

population.

It is time to think deeply

about what urban

agriculture might mean

for us in the longer term

future.

Photo: Ben

etton

> some figures

800 million estimated number of people engaged in

agriculture in or near cities

66% fraction of (sub)urban households in the

developing world engaged in some sort of farming

2.7 million farmers in Shangai

600,000 people in Beijing who work directly in agriculture

80,000 number of allotment gardens in use in Berlin

14,000 people on a waiting list for an allotment

garden in Berlin

> focal question

What will urban agriculture look like in 2040?

Howwill it function?

Whatwill it contribute?Whatwill it contribute?

Wherewill we see it?

Whowill be involved?

> approach

a collaborative futures project

with a global scope and a

30 years’ time horizon

!

building

the partnership

building the

evidence basea series of 3 learning labs dissemination

the project: elapsed time 24 months

and an action lab

!

> participants

• Local, regional, national and

transnational authorities

• Grassroots organisations

• Social innovators

• Public authorities

• Civil society organisations• Social innovators

• Developers

• Environmental technology companies

• Urban infrastructure providers

(utilities, waste, transport, housing)

• Farmers organisations

• Agrifood companies

• Retail companies

• Businesses

• Planners and architects

• Experts

> deliverables

New networksNew insights

A new platform

for joint action

PREDICAMENTPREDICAMENT

> key drivers

EnergyEconomic

GrowthPopulation

Water

Food

UrbanisationClimate

Change

What does this mean for

our life support systems?

> the Perfect Storm

Food

Energy

Increased demand

50% by 2030 (IEA)

Water

Food

Increased demand

50% by 2030 (FOA)

Increased demand

30% by 2030 (IFPRI)

> an erosion of systemic resilience

EnergyEconomic

growthPopulation

Decreasing

Accessibility

of stocks

Increasing

Variability

of supply

Water

Food

UrbanisationClimate

Change

Rising

Prices

of commodities

Increasing

trade flows

of commodities

FRAGILITY is the name of the game for the next few decades

> Vulnerability in action – the “food crisis”

• Population growth

• Rising middle classes and dietary change

• Oil price increase

• Financial speculation

• Declining food stockpiles

• Declining agricultural productivity

• Soil and water depletion

• Import dependence

• Trade regimes

• Competition from other biomass uses

• Crop shortfalls due to natural disasters

> the food crisis is here to stay

FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report, July 2009

Domestic food prices in developing countries remain high.

30 countries around the world are in crisis

and require assistance as a result of natural disasters, conflict or insecurity, and

economic problems. http://www.flickr.com/photos/laurenmanning

FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report, July 2009

> urbanisation

• The world is now half

urban (3.3 billion

people, 2008)

• Globally, urbanisation

levels will rise to 70% by

2050 (6.4 billion

people).

• Every second 2 new city

dwellers are added to dwellers are added to

the world’s urban

population.

• In absolute numbers the

growth of cities in the

developing world is ten

times that of cities in the

North.

UN-Habitat, State of World’s Cities, 2008

> urbanization: megacities

Asia is a breeding

ground for megacities

> (de)urbanisation

• The urban population in the developed

world is expected to remain stable

through 2030.

• 40% of cities in the developed world

experienced population loss through

the 1990s.

UN-Habitat, State of World’s Cities, 2008

> footprint of cities

http://w

ww.flickr.com

/pho

tos/da

velau

http://w

ww.flickr.com

/pho

tos/22

7465

15@N02

/328

1728

778

CITIES HAVE

BECOME ENTROPIC

BLACK HOLES

drawing in matter

and energy from

all over the

biosphere

Rees and Wackernagel, [1996] 2008

> the complexity of the global food system

> trends in global food systems

Expanding

trade

Increasing

energy density

of diets

Global dominance

of supermarkets

> making cities more sustainable: 5 principles

1 Reduction of energy input

2 Avoiding or cyclization of flows

3 Protection of all abiotic stocks

(air, water, soil)

Urban

agriculture 4 Preservation of nature and

urban spaces

5 Providing small-scale structure and

rich differentiation

R. Wittig et al., [1994] 2008

agriculture

contributes

to all

PRACTICEPRACTICE

> urban agriculture: a definition

Urban agriculture is an

industry located within (intra-

urban) or on the fringe (peri-

urban) of a town, a city or a

metropolis,

which grows and raises,

processes and distributes a

diversity of food and non-

food products,

Photo. T. K

rupn

ik

food products,

(re)using largely human and

material resources, products

and services found in and

around that urban area.

(Mougeot, 2000)

> urban agriculture in the developing world

• Urban agriculture has always been vibrant in developing countries.

• The practice of urban agriculture is:

• Informal: part of the informal economy, very little in terms of

supporting policy frameworks

• Heterogeneous: significant demographic variety of practitioners;

different ways of organising; different production patterns

• Opportunistic: farming is a often secondary livelihood, opportunistic • Opportunistic: farming is a often secondary livelihood, opportunistic

use of public land; unconventional farm types (partly mobile, partly

without soil)

Photo: China

Daily

> urban agriculture in the developing world

South Asia

> 11 million people

Latin America &

Caribbean

East &

South-East Asia

> 7 million people

* Intensive production of

perishable high-value

commodities

North Africa & Middle East

> 6 million people

* fruit, vegetables and poultry

Map

: NAS

A

Sub-Saharan Africa

> 10% of urban population

* Heterogeneous & dynamic

* Fruit, vegetables, dairy,

cattle, goats, poultry

> 11 million people

* livestock-based farming

system

Caribbean

>x% of urban population

* Horticulture, dairy, poultry

FOA estimates, 2001 as reported by

van Veenhuizen & Danso, 2007

> Key benefits of urban agriculture in the developing world

• Food security: it is estimated that 200 million

residents produce food for the urban market

providing 15-20% if the world’s food.

• Income generation: urban poor spend a

sizeable fraction of their income (50-70%) on

food. UA is an important source of surplus

income.

• Social integration of disadvantaged groups • Social integration of disadvantaged groups

(female-headed households, elderly, jobless,

HIV/AIDS affected).

• Environmental benefits

• improving waste management by turning

into productive resources

• improving urban microclimate by providing

shade, dust reduction, wind breaks

> Risks associated to urban agriculture in the developing world

Key risks:

Health and

environmental risks

due to

polluted water and soils

Photo: Mujahid Safodien/Associated Press

polluted water and soils

unhygienic processing

zoonosis

pesticides

> urban agriculture in the developed world:

something’s afoot

The “Anastasia” hype >

“Over 10 million copies sold

with no advertisement”

“Thousands quit their jobs”

“Recession? These books

show us another way!”

Michele Obama in the White House vegetable garden

The Transition Town movement

> urban agriculture: window sill gardens

... small

We can start ...

> urban agriculture: allotments and home gardens

ERA Arch

itects

© K. Leido

rf

Gardening is enjoying an increasing popularity.

Sales of vegetable seeds have increased with 30% in

Europe and US in 2008-2009.

Key drivers: better taste, lower cost, more community,

lower environmental impact.

> urban agriculture: the permaculture wave

ERA Arch

itects

© K. Leido

rf

Photo: J. Tha

kara

ETHICS !

PRINCIPLES !

Permaculture is an approach to designing

communities and agricultural systems that mimics

the relationships found in natural ecologies.

There is a rapidly expanding international permaculture

community.

Transition Towns are modelled along the lines of

permaculture principles.

> urban agriculture: green roofs

Sky Ve

getables

Green roof surface areas have been expanding

across the US and Europe.

The City of Toronto passed a new green roof by-law

consisting of a green roof construction standard and a

mandatory requirement for green roofs on all classes of

new buildings. The city of Chicago installed a green roof

on its city hall in 2001. The Ford Motor Company has

installed a 10.4-acre green roof atop its assembly plant in

Dearborn, Michigan.

2 6

> urban agriculture: total building concepts

1

1. “Pig City”

MVRDV

2. “Dragonfly”

Vincent Callebaut

3. “Agro Housing”

Knafo Klimor Architects

4. “La Tour Vivante”

SOA Architects

5. “Center for Urban Agriculture”

Mithun

6. “Tower of Tomorrow”

William McDonough + Partners

3

4

5

> urban agriculture: total building concepts

Design principles

• Production of high value crops

(greenhouse) meshed with

residential and business functions

or dedicated vertical livestock

buildings

• State-of-the-art environmental

Kiss +

Cathc

art A

rchitects

• State-of-the-art environmental

technology: recycling of

wastewater, renewable energy,

recyclable building materials

• Production technology:

hydroponics, aeroponics (soilless

culture)

> closed cycle design

• Civic Ecology: integrating

energy, water, material and

information flows at the

scale of buildings or

neighbourhoods

• Cradle-to-cradle: beyond

© Tim

Smith

, SER

A

• Cradle-to-cradle: beyond

efficiency to coupling

environmental benefits

with material production

and consumption

> metropolitan/regional concepts Many of the ‘Grand Paris’

proposals include urban

agriculture as an integral

element of the design

© Antoine

Grumba

ch & Associés

© Burea

u Ca

stro

> key drivers: urban agriculture in developed countries

Local food production

(fruit, vegetables)

• provide access to

fresh, quality food

for all socio-

economic groups

• reduce food miles

Environmental benefits

• reduce cooling and

heating needs

• facilitate

stormwater

management

Community building

• building life skills

• creating a sense of

place

• beautifying urban

environments• reduce food miles

• provide new or

more reliable

sources of income

for growers

• increase biodiversity

• filter pollutants and

carbon dioxide out

of the air

• recycling of

nutrients

environments

> Urban agriculture: current typology

Subsistence

UPA

Commercial

UPA

Multifunctional

UPA

> urban agriculture: a typology

Self-production of

food and herbs

Some processing and

Food and non-food

products

Market-oriented

Subsistence

UPA

Multifunctional

UPA

Commercial

UPA

Some processing and

local selling/exchange

Part of livelihood

strategies

of urban poor

Market-oriented

production by family-

based or entrepreneurial

entreprises

Income and employment

generation

Organic and diverse

agriculture in buffer

zones and

neighbourhoods

Direct marketing of fresh

products

Combination with other

functions (ecosystem

services; urban greening)

UPA

> dimensions of a more differentiated typology [plapoebia]

Purpose what does the agricultural production contribute to?

Location where is agricultural production taking place?

Actors who is involved in the agricultural production?

Production what (portfolio of) biomass-based products & services is produced?

Ownership who owns production factors (capital, land)?Ownership who owns production factors (capital, land)?

Environment what is the institutional, social, economic and geographic environment?

Beneficiaries who benefits (or is a victim) from agricultural production?

Infrastructure what technical and built infrastructure is used to produce?

Assumptions what are basic underlying assumptions about the relationship

between nature and city, urban and rural, man and the land?

PROSPECTSPROSPECTS

> new technologies

Mainstreaming

urban

agriculture?

EasyBloom: a sensor that communicates a plant’s eye view

vaporNET: turning fog into fresh water http://www.flickr.com/photos/laurenmanning

Urban Battery: off-grid power station, vertical greenhouse and billboard MOS

Eco-pod: algae bio-reactorHoweler & Yoon Architects

> new business models

Low cost designs and

the proximity of

growing cycle and retail

point creates new

opportunities for small

scale, urban farming.

www.thefarmery.com

> new business models

“Indeed, the entire roof is planted

with various fruits, vegetables, and

other edibles for restaurant Blue

www.treehugger.com

Green Roof in LA provides

vegetables for restaurant below

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/04/green-roof-food-la.php

other edibles for restaurant Blue

Velvet. You can’t get more local.”

Restaurant & Kwekerij “De Kas” Amsterdam

> new economic paradigms

Financial capital Social capital

The Core

Economy

The Monetary

Economy

The Social

Economy

Obligation and

Reciprocity

Supply and

Demand

Public

Private

Not-for-profit

Households

Communities

> new faultlines

Contesting spaces,

policies

and business

models

hw

ang jin

woo

k

Permablitz

Eating the suburbs,

One garden at a time

> new discontinuities

Pakistan

pandemics

new

valuation

paradigms

bioterrorist

attack

technology

breakthrough

disruptive

climate

change

Pakistan

collapse

beyond

Copenhagenoil price

demise of

the dollar

breakthrough

PROMISEPROMISE

> logic

Understanding

Urban Agriculture

TODAY

Learning

from

CASE STUDIES

Mapping

FUTURE

CONTEXTS

Understanding

Urban Agriculture

POTENTIALS

Maximising

Urban Agriculture

POTENTIALS

Groundwork Learning Lab I Learning Lab II Learning Lab III Action Lab

!

How do Urban

Agriculture

practices work ?

How do key

drivers of change

interact to create

different settings

for urban

agriculture ?

What is

Urban

Agriculture?

What might

Urban Agriculture

be in 2040 ?

What can we do

today to help

spread and initiate

best practices and

novel business

propositions ?

> deliverables

systemic

insight

+

new

capabilities

+

new new

partnerships

enables

purposeful

change

> timeline

• Develop project concept

• Build consortium

• Run project

• Build evidence base

• Learning Lab I

2009 2010 2011

• Learning Lab I

• Learning Lab II

• Learning Lab III

• Action Lab

• Dissemination

> project roles

Project

Team

Scientific

Reflection

Group

Sponsors

Contact

Points

ResearchersVisualization

Experts

Process

Experts

Systems Mapping

3D/Architectural Rendering

Futures

Learning Labs

Systems Analysis

Innovation

Urbanism & Land Use

Food Systems

Social Innovation

Systems Thinking

Socio-technical Transitions

TeamGroupPoints

Creative

Multistake-

holder

Group

3-4 Urban Agriculture top experts

from different discipinary and cultural

backgrounds

Up to 40 individuals

representing different stakeholders

from different settings

(developing-developed)

Up to 12 individuals

representing funders’ interests

Initiators

> a linked-up approach is needed

public authorities

producers

farming

organisations

developers

agri-food

transportarchitects

waste

mgtconsumer

organisations

activist

groups

utilities

technology

& infrastructure

providers

utilities

organisations

retailersplanners

architects

© shiftN

> initiators

+ +

Experts in

Strategic future projects

Multistakeholder dialogue

Open Innovation processes + +Open Innovation processes

Customised learning experiences

> previous CSMSPs

collaborative strategic multistakeholder processes

Nutrition & Health 2020Scenarios for a health-conscious society

2003-2004

Key sponsors

Co-initiated with iStockphoto

> previous CSMSPs


Nutrition & Health

Open Innovation Lab

2005-2006

Key sponsors

Co-initiated with

iStockphoto

> previous CSMSPs


2025 Fields for Food or FuelScenarios for a new biomass regime

2007-2008

Key sponsors

Co-organised with

iStockphoto

> endorsements

Prof. André Faaij, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University

“I was particularly impressed by the excellent understanding and use of the interactive scenario methodology

that was deployed. I have been and am involved in many activities that target or include scenario analysis, but this

process was particularly well done, really making the participants realize why it was done, what was done and

allowing for building of insight and understanding. This was a unique experience for me and delivered useful

lessons for the future.”

Richard Perkins, World Wildlife Fund UK

“Thanks for a fascinating meeting and for all the hard work that you and your colleagues put into making it work. “Thanks for a fascinating meeting and for all the hard work that you and your colleagues put into making it work.

One of the best facilitated processes that I have been involved in recent years, and I am quite fussy about these

things.”

Ron Steenblik, International Institute for Sustainable Development, Paris

“It was a very rewarding experience, one from which I Iearned much – both in terms of the process by which

participants’ views and knowledge were elicited, and the substance at the heart of the exercise. I appreciate very much

the opportunity to have participated in it. I thought that you guys were great, by the way. And your graphs and

charts, some of which were produced overnight, were incredible.”

urban agriculture futures introduction

Documents

urban population

worlds urban poor

growing urban image

ownership of urban space

projecturban agriculture

collaborative think

social benefits

social strife