updating climate change research in the basque country yale university, world bank, undp, others....

Updating Climate Change Research in the Basque Country

8th March 2010

2

Klimagune 2010

1. 09-10 Research Lines2. Publications3. Some Research/Policy

Outcomes

3

Klimagune 2010

1. 09-10 Research Lines

2. Publications3. Some Research

Outcomes

1. Research Lines

1. Adaptation to and the impacts of climate change The objective of this research program is to understand the impacts of climate change on health, agriculture, water, ecosystems and biodiversity and Infrastructure services, identifying how best to respond to them.

2. Measures to mitigate the amount of climate change experiencedMitigation is one half of the climate challenge, with adaptation being the other. The main research activities focus on how to make a transition from an economic and social structure that is based on carbon and on the emissions of GHGs, to one that is based on renewable sources of energy and that does is mindful of emissions from agriculture and forestry.

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1. Research Lines

3. International Dimensions of Climate PolicyThe objectives are to contribute to a better understanding of the constraints to reaching international agreement on climate targets, to develop common measures of the costs of adaptation to climate in developed and developing countries and how adaptation to climate can be mainstreamed into the development strategies of developing countries.

4. Developing and supporting research that informs climate policy in the Basque Country

The aim is to act as the centre for research on all aspects of climate policy in the Basque Country, drawing on the substantial research that is ongoing in the universities and other research centre in the region

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1. Research Lines

1. Adaptation to and Impacts of Climate ChangeObjectives: (i) to assess the impacts of climate change on human welfare and activities; (ii) to estimate the cost of adaptation measures in key sectors in developing countries; (ii) to assess the use of Information and Communication Technologies for planning adaptation to climate change in the policy context.

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RESEARCH LINE Leader BC3 participants

External

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

• Quantitative assessment of health impacts due to climate change in Sub-Sahara Africa, identification of risk factors for each health endpoint (method: epidemiological models)

• Assessment of the impacts of climate change on farmers Africa and Latin America (method: statistical analysis)

• Assessment of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services in tropical forest of Central America (modelling, market and non-market valuation, value-transfer)

• Assessing the impacts of droughts in Europe and policy choices

Aline Chiabai

Niggol Seo

Aline Chiabai

Anil Markandya

Anil Markandya

---

Kaysara Khatun, Julia Martin-

Ortega and Elena Ojea

Julia Martin- Ortega

FEEM

Yale University, World Bank, UNDP, others.

CATIE (Costa Rica)

University of Wageningen, Spanish Ministry of

Environment.

1. Research Lines

1. Adaptation to and Impacts of Climate Change

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RESEARCH LINE Leader BC3 participants External

ADAPTATION MEASURES

• Identification and cost assessment of adaptation measures due to climate change in India: health, agriculture, water and forest ecosystems.

• Review of adaptation methodologies developed and applied in China; assessment of adaptation measures and comparison with methods developed and applied by BC3.

• Analysis of adaptation options in Africa and Latin America

• Analysis of adaptation policies for water management

• Analysis of perceived risks and preferences about adaptation policies

• Climate policies for sustainable rural energy and agriculture in Africa

Anil Markandya

Anil Markandya

Niggol Seo

FEEM (Italy)

University of Santiago de Compostela

Anil Markandya

Aline Chiabai, Julia Martin-Ortega, Elena

Ojea

Aline Chiabai and Julia Martin-Ortega

---

Anil Markandya, Julia Martin-Ortega

Elena Ojea

Aline Chiabai, Kaysara Khatun, Julia Martin-

Ortega, Elena Ojea and Agustin Del Prado

TERI Institute (New Delhi, India)

CASS Institute (Bejing, China)

Yale University, World Bank, UNDP, others.

Chamber of Agriculture of lower Saxony, University of

Lisbone

University of California

CICERO (Norway), Ethiopian Development

Research Institute (EDRI), Economic Policy Research

Centre.

1. Research Lines

1. Adaptation to and Impacts of Climate Change

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CAPACITY BUILDING

• Analysis of information and communication technologies (ICT) in climate change research and sustainable environment; role in policy contexts to reduce existing gaps between policy-makers, scientific communities and citizens; use of ICT in “collective” decision-making for adaptation to climate change.

Aline Chiabai --- University of Graz (Austria), Marine

Biological laboratory (USA),

Integrated Resources

Management (Malta)

1. Research Lines

2. Measures to mitigate the climate changeObjectives: (i) Modeling the inter linkages between the economic and the climate sub-systems to better understand how the economy will be affected by climate change and measures to control greenhouse gases that are responsible for climate change. (ii)Design of instruments to reduce greenhouse gases at the regional, national and global level. (iii)The role of technology in reducing greenhouse gases and what kinds of polices will be needed to best promote the right kinds of technologies (carbon-free technologies). (iv)Addressing uncertainty in climate policy.

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systems-based approaches to mitigate GHG emissions from land use at different spatial and temporal scales.

Methodology: systems-based modelling from the field to the landscape scale (development of new and use of existing process-based mathematical models)

• Develop a modeling framework to simulate flows, transformations and losses of matter (N, C) and energy between and within elements of rural landscapes.

• study the most cost-effective mitigation of GHG at the landscape and farm scale.• to identify potential side-effects on other agricultural services and goods after valorization

of agro-industry waste .• to study the farm-level effectiveness of novel methods at the plant and animal level to

mitigate CH4 emissions from livestock enteric fermentation. Assessment of potential pollution swapping effect.

• to study the role of bioenergy crops as potential mitigation of GHG and energy source (assessing the net global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels).

• Modeling the net field and regional GHG emissions and soil organic carbon storage from typical bioenergy crops in Spain. Validation , upscaling and sensitivity analisis.

Agustin del Prado

Patricia GallejonesAline ChiabaiElena Ojea

Julia Martín-Ortega

North Wyke ResUniversity of Aberystwyth

University of BangorUniversity of Reading

Hadley Centre,IDEA,UPV/EHU,UP M,CIEMAT,INIA,Universida d de Lleida,Universidad de Cordoba,NEIKER,AZTI,Ros

Roca

1. Research Lines

2. Measures to mitigate the climate change

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Regional Modelling of the economy

Methodology: Land-use model; carbon market model; CGE model

The aim of this research is to examine regulatory aspects and impacts of the Brazilian carbon market. We will develop a CGE model for Brazil, focusing on energy and land use issues (e.g. Deforestation at the Amazon region).

Ronaldo Seroa da Motta

Ramon Arigoni OrtizAnil Markandya

IPEA-Brazil;COPPE/UFRJ- BrazilCIRED – France

Long Run Trends in Energy and Energy Services

Methodology: Econometric Analysis

• The aim of this programme is to investigate long run trends in prices, consumption, welfare gains and external costs of energy services (heating, power, transport, lighting and computing) with a view to better understand and anticipate future changes in energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions

Roger Fouquet Roger Fouquet Imperial College London, University

of Pennsylvania

HEALTH BENEFITS FROM MITIGATION POLICIES

• Estimation of the health co-benefits of sectoral policies to reduce greenhouse gas emission in high and low-income countries

Anil Markandya Aline Chiabai London School of Hygiene and

Tropical Medicine, WHO

1. Research Lines

3. International Dimensions of Climate PolicyObjectives:(i) International and regional agreements on climate action. (ii) Understanding how international agreements related to climate control are designed and what constitutes a stable and effective agreement. (iii)Finding synergies and conflicts between the goals of climate mitigation and development.(iv) Addressing uncertainty in climate policy.

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Low carbon economy modelling

Methodology: TIAM global model (linear optimisation MARKAL energy model)

• The aim of this project is to analyse Global Climate Scenarios for Sustainable Development and Renewable energy. Four case studies will be developed: China, India, Denmark and Spain. BC3 will lead the scenarios definition and the modelling part for Spain

Anil Markandya Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino Energy Research Institute (China),

Technical University

(Denmark ), IIAM (India)

Economic modelling of climate and the economy

Methodology: Integrated Impact Assessment of climate and the economy

• The aim is to develop a tool for evaluating alternative approaches to reduce climate change; a global model providing useful information and scientific insights for climate policy, which can be a relevant instrument for policy makers and researchers in the field of climate change.

Anil Markandya

Anil MarkandyaRamon Arigoni Ortiz

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF – USA)

1. Research Lines

4. Developing and supporting research that informs climate policy at the Basque Country

Objectives: (i)The aim is to act as the centre for research on all aspects of climate policy in the Basque Country, drawing on the substantial research that is ongoing in the universities and other research centre in the region. (ii)Glocal: From local to global and from global to local. Research does not need to be focused in the Basque Country but should help to improve Basque Climate Policy. (iii)Issues to be addressed will include more precise assessment of impacts, design of optimal adaptation strategies, policies for mitigation, better measurement of emissions from land use and policies to improve IPCC/GHG inventories for agriculture and land use methodologies in the Basque Country through comparison with other countries (e.g. UK).

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MITIGATION: impacts, instruments and policies

Methodology: Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models

• Economic impact of CO2 mitigation in Spain.• Cost-effectiveness of different Market Based Instruments for CO2 mitigation.• Climate policy, carbon leakage and the Iron and Steel Industry in industrial

regions.• Introducing uncertainty.

Mikel Gonzalez- EguinoIbon GalarragaMikel Gonzalez- EguinoLuis Mari Abadie

Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino

Ibon Galarraga

Mikel Gonzalez-EguinoRamón Ortiz

----

UPV-EHU

UPV-EHUUPV-EHU

Methodology: Policy analysis (Qualitative review)

• Regional climate policies and their role in the global context.• The Basque Energy Policy: does size matter in EU context?

Ibon GalarragaIbon Galarraga

Anil Markandya, Mikel Gonzalez- Eguino

--EVE (Basque Energy

Board)

2. Research Lines

4. Developing and supporting research that informs climate policy at the Basque Country

OthersAssessment for Basque Government:

Policy Working Notes.BC3 Public Policy Briefings: “lessons to be learnt”. (On quarterly basis).

Others:Spanish Climate Change Office (Ministry for the environment): supporting the National Adaptation Plan on adaptation economics.TIAM model scenarios for Spain.

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ECO-LABELLING, demand and welfare analysis

Methodology: Hedonic approach, demand systems• Consumers response to energy efficiency labelling on house hold appliances. Ibon Galarraga Anil Markandya

Mikel Gonzalez-EguinoCICERO (Norway)

ECONOMICS of adaptation

Methodology: Economic valuation techniques

• Methodological report: The use of economic valuation techniques.• Case study: Sea level rise, valuing the cost associated to the sea level rise in the

BC.

Anil MarkandyaIbon Galarraga

Ibon Galarraga

Aline Chiabai

Aline Chiabai

UPN (Spain)

UPN, Labein, Neiker, AZTI, UPV-EHU

2. Research Lines: Collaboration Program

Agreements with other Research Centres• The Energy Research Institute (TERI, India)

• Environmental Defence EDF (USA)

• London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM, UK)

• Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (China)

• Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)/ Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)

• CICERO (Norway)

• CATIE (Costa Rica)

• North Wyke Research

• Neiker

• UPV-EHU

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Klimagune 2010

1. 09-10 Research Lines

2. Publications3. Some Research

Outcomes

Adaptation to and the Impacts of climate change (11)1. Markandya, A., Armstrong, B., Hales, S., Chiabai, A., Criqui P., Mina, S., Tonne C. and P. Wilkinson (2009). “Impact on Public Health

of Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gases: Low Carbon Electricity Generation”, The Lancet D-09-04668R1.2. Markandya, A., and A. Chiabai (2009). “Valuing Climate Change Impacts on Human health: Empirical Evidence from the Literature”,

International journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2009, 6, 759-786.3. Ojea, E. and Loureiro, M. L. (2009). Valuation of Wildlife: Revising Some Additional Considerations for Scope Tests. Contemporary

Economic Policy 27(2), 236-250.4. Ojea, E. and Loureiro, M. L. (2009). Valuing the Recovery of Overexploited Fish Stocks in the Context of Existence and Option

Values. Marine Policy doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2009.10.0075. Seo, S.N., R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, R. Hassan, and P. Kurukulasuriya .A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change

Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa. Environmental and Resource Economics, Springer Netherlands, 03.03.2009, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 313-332. (New Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change)

6. Seo, S.N., R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, and P. Kurukulasuriya. Adapting to Climate Change Mosaically: An Analysis of Adaptation in African Livestock Management across Agro-Ecological Zones. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy (Special issue on economic geography)

7. Ortiz, R.A., A. Markandya and A. Hunt. Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reduction Associated with Air Pollution in Sao Paulo. RBE - Revista Brasileira de Economia v. 63 n. 1 / p. 3–22 Jan-Mar 2009

8. Brouwer, R., Martin-Ortega, J. and Berbel, J. (forthcoming). Spatial heterogeneity in choice experiments. Land Economics. 9. Markandya, A. , A. Sgobbi, A. Goria and C. Giuponi“ A Pilot Study on Payment for Ecological and Environmental Services in Lashihai

Nature Reserve, China”, Payments for Environmental Services: Ecological Economics and Human Wellbeing, New Delhi: Oxford University Press.

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2. Publications in 2009

Measures to mitigate the amount of climate change experienced (4)1. Fouquet, R. (2009) “A brief history of energy” in J. Evans and L.C. Hunt (eds.) International Handbook of the Economics of

Energy. Edward Elgar Publications. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA, USA.2. Fouquet, R. (2009) Global Problems and Solutions. (Books Review). Journal of Economic Issues 43(4). 3. Fouquet, R. (2008, 2010) Heat, Power and Light: Revolutions in Energy Services. Edward Elgar Publications. Cheltenham,

UK, and Northampton, MA, USA. [Paperback Version in January 2010].4. Del Prado A., Chadwick D., Cardenas L., Misselbrook T., Scholefield D. and Merino P. (in press). Exploring systems

responses to mitigation of GHG in UK dairy farms. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. Impact Factor: 2.884 (1/35: AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY).

5. Del Prado A., Chadwick D. and Scholefield D. (2009a). Simulating the effect on GHG emissions after implementing a trajectory towards sustainability of a dairy farm. (41th Meeting of the Agricultural Research Modeller’s Meeting). Journal of Agricultural Science. 147: 739. Impact Factor: 1.471 (5/35: AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY).

6. Markandya, A., R. Ortiz, S. Mudgal and B. Tinetti (2009), “Analysis of Tax Incentives for Energy Efficient Durables in the EU” Energy Policy, 37, 5662-5674.

7. Markandya, A. and O. Kiulia (2009)“Can Transition Economies Implement a Carbon Tax and Hope For A Double Dividend? The Case of Estonia”, Applied Economics Letters, 16, 7, 705-709.

International dimensions of Climate Policy (2)1. Gallastegui, M, Galarraga I., Gonzalez-Eguino, M. (2009) “Economía y Cambio Climático: una visión general, Papeles de

Economía Española . 121, 2-13.2. González-Eguino, M., Olabe, A (2009), Keys to a new deal on climate change, Ambientalia, 1, 1-10.3. Markandya, A. “Climate Change: Alternative Perspectives”, in B. Lomborg (ed.) Global Crises, Global Solution 2nd Edition,

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp298-304 .4. Markandya, A. “Can Climate Change Be Reversed Under Capitalism?”, Development and Change, 40,6,1139-1152.

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Developing and supporting research that informs climate policy at the Basque Country (2)1. Abadie, L.M. and Chamorro, J.M. (2009), "Impactos económico-financieros de los precios del CO2". Papeles de Economía

Española. nº 121, pp 193-210.2. Gallastegui, M.C. and Galarraga, I. (2009), “The 20-20-20 Target of the EU” in Tratado de la Energías Renovables.

Iberdrola and Thomson Aranzadi.3. Gallastegui, M.C. and Galarraga, I. (2009), “Climate Change and Knowledge Communities”. J. Echeverría, P. Oiarzabal and

A. Alonso (eds.), Knowledge Communities, Reno, Center for Basque Studies, UNR. 4. Galarraga, I. (2009), “Coste de la No Europa: la Política Ambiental” in “El Coste de la No Europa: Qué sería de nuestro

continente sin la UE” edited by European Free Alliance, European Parliament.5. Abadie, L.M. and Chamorro, J.M. (2009), "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments". Review of Financial

Economics 2009, vol. 18, issue 1, pages 10-22.6. Abadie, L.M. and Chamorro, J.M. ,"Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto ". Energy Policy Volume 37, Issue

12, December 2009. pp 5304-5316.7. Abadie, L.M. and Chamorro, J.M. (2009), "The economics of gasification: a market-based approach". Energies 2009, 2(3),

pages 662-694.8. Abadie, L.M. (2009), "Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty". Energies 2009, 2(3), pages

738-768.9. M. Gonzalez-Eguino,”Competitividad y fuga de carbono: el caso de la economía vasca”. Ekonomiaz 10. I. Arto and M. González-Eguino. “Hacia una economía baja en carbono”. Ekonomiaz-Editor11. Hoyos, D. A. Longo and A. Markandya, (2009 Concienciación pública y aceptabilidad de medidas para la reducción de

emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero: el caso de País Vasco, Papeles De Economía Española, 121, 68-78.

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2. Publications

BC3 has developed important Scientific Publications during 2009.• 1 book co-authored A. Golub and A. Markandya:

“Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations under Uncertainty” Routledge 331pp

• Rest of publications Listed in the previous slides

We have deployed the BC3 Working Paper Series, with 11 publications until this moment

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• Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation. Valentina Bosetti, Ruben Lubowski, Alexander Golub and Anil Markandya

• Market Instruments and CO2 Mitigation: A General Equilibrium Analysis for Spain. Mikel González-Eguino• Analysis and Use of Information and Communication Tools in Economics of Climate Change. Aline Chiabai• The Role of Regions in Climate Change Policy. Ibon Galarraga, Mikel González-Eguino and Anil Markandya• Climate Change and Knowledge Communities. M.C. Gallastegui and Ibon Galarraga• Literature Review of Integrated Impact Assessment Models of Climate Change with Emphasis on Damage

Functions. Ramon Arigoni Ortiz and Anil Markandya

• Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK. Agustin del Prado, Anita Shepherd, Lianhai Wu, Cairistiona Topp, Dominic Moran, Bert Tolkamp and David Chadwick

• Climate Change and Its Socioeconomic Importance. Ibon Galarraga and Anil Markandya• The Costs of Drought: the Exceptional 2007-2008 Case of Barcelona. Julia Martin-Ortega and Anil Markandya• The Costs of Ecosystem Adaptation: Methodology and Estimates for Indian Forests . Elena Ojea, Ranjan

Ghosh, Bharat B. Agrawal and P. K. Joshi• Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency under Uncertainty. Luis M. Abadie, José M. Chamorro, Mikel

González-Eguino

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Klimagune 2010

1. 09-10 Research Lines2. Publications

3. Research /Policy Outcomes

3. Some Research Outcomes: The Copenhagen Meeting COP 15

Main outcomes of the summitThere was an agreement at the COP 15, a “light” political, non legally binding agreement. Did not meet high expectations. Agreed by four leading countries and then was taken to the plenary.Clear political commitment to fight it from the principle of common yet differentiated responsibilities. The maximum 2ºC limit put forward by the scientists is established as the target.The need for pressing international cooperation is recognised in the field of climate change adaptation policies with the aim ofincreasing resilience and reducing vulnerability, mainly, of developing countries, small island states and Africa.The Annex I countries (in other words, developed countries) undertake individually or collectively to reduce emissions for 2020, whose specific targets shall be reported before 31 January 2010. Those members that are parties to the Kyoto Protocol shall thus confirm their commitments to it. They shall follow the reporting and accounting recommendations of the Conference of the Parties.The non-Annex 1 countries (developing countries) shall implement the mitigation measures to be sent to them before 31 January 2010.The crucial importance of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is recognised, by stressing the importance of creating mechanisms that encourage the protection of the forests, including the mechanism known as REDD-plus. The need to apply different mechanisms (including the markets) to encourage cost-effective mitigation measures is recognised. Developing countries shall be supported to keep emission levels low.The Copenhagen Green Climate Fund has therefore been set up.

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3. Some Research Outcomes: The Copenhagen Meeting COP 15

Main outcomes of the summit (cont.)The need to set up funding mechanisms for developing countries to accelerate mitigation (including REDD), adaptation, development and technology transfer policies is accepted. 30 billion US dollar fund for 2010-2012 and annual 100 billion dollar fund for 2020 to cover the needs of developing countries. The Copenhagen Green Climate Fund.The fund shall be established as a financial mechanism operative entity of the Agreement to support the projects, programmes, policies and other measures in developing countries for mitigation questions, adaption (including REDD-plus), skills development and development and technological transfers.The review of this agreement for 2015 is proposed, including the possibility to establish targets that are coherent with temperature increases up to 2ºC.

What now?UNFCCC procedure should be revised.IPCC procedure should be revised.But these should not prevent form continuing with Climate Change Policies at Global scale.Other levels of governance also need to continue developing strategies.Private sector and other Stakeholders also have a very important role to play.

Other information:BC3 Policy Briefing Note: “General Comments on the COP 15: What Happened in Copenhagen?

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3. Some Research Outcomes: Developing system-based mitigation strategies to reduce GHG within and between multifunctional land-use elements of a rural landscape

Plan Nacional de I+D+I (2010-1012) Main partners: University of Wales, North Wyke Research, Hadley Centre (Met Office) , NEIKER, Ros Roca. Other partners from complementary projects: UPM, CIEMAT, INIA, Reading University. Leader: Dr Del Prado.

Main objective: To develop a modelling framework to simulate flows, transformations and losses of matter (N, C) and energy between and within elements of rural landscapes.

Other objectives (using the framework): to explore mitigation of GHG at farm/landscape:-to identify potential side-effects (+ or -) on other agricultural services and goods.-to study the role to mitigate GHG emissions from rural landscapes of: (i) agro-industry waste valorization (ii) bioenergy crops, (iii) plant and animal breeding, (iv) new technologies (e.g. nitrification inhibitors to reduce N2 O, food additives to reduce enteric CH4 ).

Preliminary work (e.g. farm scale: ):

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Nitrification inhibitor

Plant genetic trait

(increased NUE)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0average N

CH4/ha

N2O/ha

NH3/haGWP/ha

Nox/ha

average P

1-Baseline

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Sustainable

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Mil Q

Biodiv

Landscape

Soil Q

Anim. Welfare

£/ milk

1-Baseline

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Sustainable

3. Some Research Outcomes: Long Run Relationships bet. Economic and Technological Development, Energy Use and GHG Emissions

Main research question:Based on Past Relationships , How can we expect Energy Use (& GHGs) to Grow in the Long Run?

Main findings: A ‘Malthusian Energy’ ProblemEconomic Growth and Development Drives Demand for Energy ServicesEnergy Resources Constrain Increase in Demand But, Technology Finds Ways to Increase Consumption & Time to Find More ResourcesEndless Cycle of Limits & SolutionsClimate Change: New Limits…

New Question: How to Change Relationships?

More information:[email protected]

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3. Some Research Outcomes: Carbon leakage and the future of Industrial Regions

Research details: 1 year, BC3 and UPV/EHU, Gonzalez, Galarraga and Ansuategi.

Main research question:Objective: analyse the impact of relocation of the Iron and Steel industry in the OIRs.Case study: Basque Country. 40-50% of total the steel produced in Spain.Methodology: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model

Main findigs:Carbon leakage effect may be diluted from a national perspective, but the impact on the OIR may be largeIntegration between environment and industry policy is needed.

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(Birch et al 2009, Regional Studies)

IAMs are motivated by the need to balance the dynamics of GHG emissions and accumulation and the dynamics of the economy:

Objective is to develop a new IAM (DICER), based upon the structure of the DICE model (YALE University), with a view to answering a number of questions that have arisen from the application of the existing IAMs;

Changes introduced so far in DICER (deterministic version): improved climate module; new damage and abatement cost functions; regionalization;

Future developments: new utility function that can be directly affected by intangible damages; introduce endogenous technological change; Real Option Analysis; explicitly introducing uncertainty in the model (stochastic version);

3. Some Research Outcomes: Integrated Assessment Modelling of climate change

Economy Module Climate Module GHG emissions

Abatement costs Loss of Carbon atmospheric Production Concentration GHG ∆ Temperature changes

Economic Growth

DamageFunction

Carbon Cycle

ClimateDynamics Abatement

Function

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3. Some Research Outcomes: Climate Change and Biodiversity loss (CLIMBE)

Research details: Funded by BBVA Foundation; in collaboration with CATIE (Costa Rica); 2 year project involving 4 BC3 researchers

Objective: To assess the ecological and economic implications of climate change impacts on biodiversity services, in order to assist the design of effective biodiversity conservation policies. Focused on tropical forest in Mesoamerica.

Main research questions:Is it possible to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing the complex relationship between biodiversity loss and provision of ecosystem services? Estimates of economic values for forest ecosystem services in MesoamericaProjections of biodiversity loss, flows of services and economic impacts under different climate change scenarios

Main findings (from task 1):MEA categorization may need to be revisited for

economic valuation purposesHigh potential for the linkage of service provision and economic

values, but crucial problems still need to be addressedOther information: contact: [email protected]

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Thank you for your attention!

Eskerrik asko zuen arretagaitik!

¡Gracias por su atención!

updating climate change research in the basque country yale university, world bank, undp, others....

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