Knowledge network for System Innovations

and transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)

Transition to a sustainable society: challenging but cumbersome

Jan RotmansJan Rotmans

Wageningen, 25-03-2011Wageningen, 25-03-2011

twitter.com/jan_rotmanstwitter.com/jan_rotmans

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Current society is

far from sustainable

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Persistent problems

• our society faces a number of persistent problemsour society faces a number of persistent problems

• many examples: climate change, energy supply, many examples: climate change, energy supply,

water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health carewater problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care

• persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedpersistence is due to system failures that are deeply rooted

in our societal structuresin our societal structures

• regular policy aimed at incremental improvementregular policy aimed at incremental improvement

is not enough to resolve persistent problemsis not enough to resolve persistent problems

transformative change is neededtransformative change is needed

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Persistency of mobility system

• congestioncongestion10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams

• victimsvictims 41.000 victims per year in Europe41.000 victims per year in Europe

• space usespace use75% increase over the last 30 years75% increase over the last 30 years

• pollutionpollution 30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport

• noisenoise 33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution

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20 - 30 years

Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase

20 – 30 years

Breakthrough to sustainable society

”

Widespread application

of new paradigms

Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages

Tipp

ing

Poin

t

Battle between old and

new paradigm

Build up and decay

of institutions

energy

Time

We are here

Consolidatiion

transport

fisheries

health care

agriculture

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crisis from transition perspective

three levels of assessment:three levels of assessment:

1. financial and banking crisis1. financial and banking crisis

financial supervision and regulationfinancial supervision and regulation

2. relations market, government and society2. relations market, government and society

limited market forces, role of government and citizenslimited market forces, role of government and citizens

3. virtues, norms and values3. virtues, norms and values

new economic ordering in light of energy and climate crisisnew economic ordering in light of energy and climate crisis

moral crisis: window of opportunity moral crisis: window of opportunity

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crisis from transition perspective

current crisis is a systems crisiscurrent crisis is a systems crisis

financial crisis is a symptom of systems crisisfinancial crisis is a symptom of systems crisis

energy crisis and climate crisis yet to comeenergy crisis and climate crisis yet to come

systems crisis is deeply rooted insystems crisis is deeply rooted in

production & consumption exhaustion of natural res. production & consumption exhaustion of natural res.

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Sustainability Transitions

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ww

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nl)Transition

fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in

societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system

• structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure infrastructure (market, consumption, production), (market, consumption, production), institutionsinstitutions

(rules, regulations, collective (rules, regulations, collective actors)actors)

• culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectivecollective set of values, norms, perspective

(shared orientation), paradigm (defining(shared orientation), paradigm (defining

problems and solutions)problems and solutions)

• practices:practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling,routines, behaviour, ways of handling,

implementation at the individual levelimplementation at the individual level

incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken

down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up

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Examples of transitions

internetfrom physical to virtual

water transition from stemming water to accomodating water

energy transitionfrom fossil energy to sustainable energy supply

health care transition from bureaucratic health care to human care

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Transition to Sustainable Society

quest to new values

from to

welfare happiness

exploitation cooperation

linear cyclical

central decentral

hierarchy networks

individuals communities

directing facilitating

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Transition = Power shift

regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests

niche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at a smaller scale level

niches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that might

take over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defend

its existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime

transition = regime-shift = power shift

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Global Power Struggle

Obama

“ the country that will dominate the sustainable energy-

economy will become the country that will dominate

the world economy and America must be that country ”

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Sustainable Trends

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Clean Tech sustainable energy biobased chemical industrysustainable water technologysustainable waste disposal

fastest growing industry in the world (10-15% per year)

China 35 billion $ in Clean Tech in 2009 VS 18 billion, $ Silicon Valley turns into Clean Tech

Valley GB 11 billion $ Netherlands 100 million $….

green revolution unfolding

Global Sustainable Dynamics

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Global Sustainable Dynamics

current worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $

sales doubles the coming 5-10 year and yields ca. 100 million‘green’ jobs: sustainable energy, chemistry, recycling, services

sustainable energy: 20 million new jobs sustainable biomass: 15 million new jobs sustainable construction: 10 million new jobs

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Glocalisation

ca. 10.000 local and regional initiatives in the Netherlands

thousands of sustainability frontrunners:

sustainable energy, food, construction, mobility, life style, fashion

hundreds of start-ups in the realm of sustainability

ca. 300 plans for local energy cooperations

bubbling undercurrent

Local Sustainable Dynamics

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Glocalisation

decentral becomes thé trend

energy but also food, water, waste, care

becomes co-determinant for spatial planning

society goest faster than politics can handle

companies, organisations, citizens, neighbourhoods

politics needs to facilitate this dynamics

Local Sustainable Dynamics

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Governing Transitions

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Transition governance

rules of thumbrules of thumb

• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policylong-term thinking as the basis for short term policy

• think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)different levels (multi-level)

• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)

• using uncertainties as a starting point for governanceusing uncertainties as a starting point for governance

• keeping options open (wide playing field)keeping options open (wide playing field)

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Transition Managementprinciplesprinciples

- put energy in frontrunners and not in the packput energy in frontrunners and not in the pack

- bring frontrunners together in protected spaces bring frontrunners together in protected spaces

- develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathwaysdevelop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways

- start with portfolio of transition experimentsstart with portfolio of transition experiments

- create new coalitions around pathways & experimentscreate new coalitions around pathways & experiments

searching, learning, experimentingsearching, learning, experimenting

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Transition Management Cycle

vision, pathways,transition

agenda

transition arena

transition experiments

evaluation, monitoring

learning

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society

Transition arenasRegular policy arena

- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented

- Long term- Innovators - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching

The transition arena

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Sustainability Vision

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Stichting Urgenda

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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

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drijvende wijk/stad

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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Floating City

water recreation

ecology:wetlands

technology: floating foundation

energy: decentral heat/cold storage

mobility: floating

highway, water taxi

living / working units

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Transition Agenda for the Netherlands

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Transition Agenda

investing in sustainable innovation

investing in strategic niches

built environmentsustainable energybiobased economyelectric mobility

facilitating role of the government

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Transition Agenda

revival of the manufacturing industry

climate adaptation / sustainability

floating cities, green chemistry, C2C-buildings

regional innovation campus

learning, practising, bussiness enterprises

sustainability factory in Dordrecht

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Built Environment

built environment energy neutral in 2025

all existing houses, buildings and schools energy neutral

inspiration

transition from coal to gas from 1955 to 1965

entire Dutch housing stock was provided with

gas connection for heating and cooking

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Built Environment

energy neutral through:

1. shell of building as energy efficient as possiblegood isolation and and efficient installations

2. producing sustainable energysolar-PV, solar water heaters, wind, heat

3. surface area developmentenergy, water, fine dust particles / NOx

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Sustainable = Value Creation

making housing stock sustainable is beneficial to:

- economy [employment]

- construction sector

- value of real estate

- environment

- society

- citizens and housing corporations

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Thus…

technically it is possible in 15 years

financially it is feasible

how can we get this organized?

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Role of government notnot in a directing role in a directing role

butbut

• a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role

• still an active but different rolestill an active but different role

- creating innovation space for frontrunnerscreating innovation space for frontrunners- removing barriers for sustainable innovationremoving barriers for sustainable innovation- developing coalitions around breakthrough projectsdeveloping coalitions around breakthrough projects

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Conclusions

• sustainability transition is long-term, intricate processsustainability transition is long-term, intricate process

requires a change in structure, culture, practicesrequires a change in structure, culture, practices

• transition is a battlefield where power shift occurstransition is a battlefield where power shift occurs

battle between niches and regimebattle between niches and regime

• we are in the midst of ‘tipping point’ periodwe are in the midst of ‘tipping point’ period

crises, chaos, turbulencecrises, chaos, turbulence

• the Netherlands needs a transition agendathe Netherlands needs a transition agenda

investments in sustainable innovation niches investments in sustainable innovation niches

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Thank you!

twitter.com/jan_rotmans