updates on noaa mm5 assessment where we left off buoy assessment temperature problems solar...
TRANSCRIPT
Updates on NOAA MM5 Assessment
• Where we left off
• Buoy assessment
• Temperature problems
• Solar radiation assessment
• ZT simulation
• Analysis nudging
• Where next?
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
1
2
3
4
Win
d S
peed [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
Win
d D
irect
ion [d
eg]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-1
0
1
2
3
4
U C
om
ponent [
m/s
]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
V C
om
ponent [
m/s
]
A rea 3
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : -0 .0 1E F m b : -0 .0 2
E T A -F D D A M o d e l
E a b : 0 .3 6E F a b : 0 .3 0
E sd : 0 .4 7E F sd : 0 .3 8
E m b : -0 .4 5E F m b : -1 .0 4
E a b : 1 8 .6 4E F a b : 1 7 .9 6
E sd : 2 8 .5 2E F sd : 2 5 .2 7
E m b : 0 .1 7E F m b : 0 .1 4
E a b : 0 .3 3E F a b : 0 .3 2
E sd : 0 .4 2E F sd : 0 .3 6
E m b : 0 .0 1E F m b : 0 .0 3
E a b : 0 .3 5E F a b : 0 .3 2
E sd : 0 .4 3E F sd : 0 .3 9
Regional speed biases
2 0.36 0.22
3 -0.01 -0.02
4 0.31 0.14
5 0.30 0.09
6 -0.01 -0.06
7 -0.02 0.05
8 0.12 0.01
9 -0.14 -0.16
Average 0.11 m/s 0.03 m/s
AREA E mb (m/s) EF mb (m/s)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Win
d S
peed [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
180
240
300
360
Win
d D
irect
ion [d
eg]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-2
0
2
4
6
8
U C
om
ponent [
m/s
]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
V C
om
ponent [
m/s
]
A rea B u o y 1
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 0 .2 7E F m b : 0 .0 7
E T A -F D D A V 3 M o d e l
E a b : 1 .6 2E F a b : 1 .5 4
E sd : 1 .8 8E F sd : 1 .8 0
E m b : 6 .0 2E F m b : 5 .1 1
E a b : 2 0 .0 5E F a b : 2 0 .3 9
E sd : 3 8 .3 1E F sd : 3 9 .9 5
E m b : 0 .1 8E F m b : 0 .0 7
E a b : 1 .2 6E F a b :1 .2 2
E sd : 1 .4 3E F sd : 1 .3 9
E m b : -1 .1 0E F m b : -0 .8 7
E a b : 1 .7 6E F a b : 1 .7 0
E sd : 1 .7 6E F sd : 1 .7 8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H ou r S ta rting 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 21 2
0
4
8
12
Win
d S
peed [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H ou r
180
240
300
360
Win
d D
irect
ion [d
eg]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H ou r
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
U C
om
ponent [
m/s
]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H ou r
-8
-4
0
4
V C
om
ponent [
m/s
]
A rea B u o y 2
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 0 .4 2E F m b : 0 .5 5
E T A -F D D A V 3 M o d e l
E a b : 2 .4 7E F a b : 2 .5 3
E sd : 2 .6 6E F sd : 2 .7 2
E m b : 2 0 .7 1E F m b : 2 1 .8 9
E a b : 2 5 .2 9E F a b : 2 6 .2 4
E sd : 3 0 .8 9E F sd : 3 0 .7 3
E m b : 0 .1 4E F m b : 0 .1 0
E a b : 1 .8 5E F a b : 1 .8 5
E sd : 2 .0 8E F sd : 2 .0 7
E m b : -1 .3 9E F m b : -1 .5 9
E a b : 2 .5 2E F a b : 2 .6 2
E sd : 2 .4 8E F sd : 2 .5 2
Regional Surface T &Td biasesAREA T mb (C) Td mb (C)
NB 3.8
SB 4.5
2 4.3 3.4
3 3.2 4.0
4 7.1 5.6
5 2.9 5.2
6 1.5 5.6
7 1.4 6.2
8 0.2 8.2
9 -1.3 3.2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
10
12
14
16
18
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea B u o y 1
O b serv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 3 .8 2E F m b : 3 .8 1
E a b : 3 .8 2E F a b : 3 .8 1
E sd : 0 .5 4E F sd : 0 .5 3
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A -F D D A V 3 M o d e l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
12
14
16
18
20
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea B u o y 2
O b serv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 4 .5 1E F m b : 4 .5 4
E a b : 4 .5 1E F a b : 4 .5 4
E sd : 0 .8 9E F sd : 0 .9 5
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A -F D D A V 3 M o d e l
North Buoy
South Buoy
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
10
15
20
25
30
35
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
12
16
20
24
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 3
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 3 .2 3E F m b : 3 .3 8
E a b : 3 .2 7E F a b : 3 .3 8
E sd : 1 .4 4E F sd : 1 .5 3
E m b : 3 .3 9E F m b : 3 .7 5
E a b : 3 .4 0E F a b : 3 .7 5
E sd : 1 .8 1E F sd : 1 .9 4
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A -F D D A M o d e l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
12
16
20
24
28
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 6
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 1 .5 4E F m b : 1 .5 5
E a b : 2 .3 2E F a b : 2 .4 5
E sd : 2 .3 0E F sd : 2 .4 9
E m b : 5 .2 2E F m b : 5 .4 7
E a b : 5 .2 2E F a b : 5 .4 7
E sd : 1 .8 3E F sd : 2 .0 2
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A -F D D A M o d e l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
15
20
25
30
35
40
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 5
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 2 .8 5E F m b : 3 .1 2
E a b : 3 .7 5E F a b : 4 .0 0
E sd : 3 .6 7E F sd : 3 .8 2
E m b : 5 .6 4E F m b : 6 .2 4
E a b : 5 .6 4E F a b : 6 .2 4
E sd : 2 .9 3E F sd : 2 .7 0
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A -F D D A M o d e l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
12
16
20
24
28
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 7
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 1 .3 9E F m b : 1 .2 8
E a b : 2 .5 8E F a b : 2 .6 8
E sd : 2 .7 0E F sd : 2 .8 5
E m b : 6 .1 8E F m b : 5 .9 6
E a b : 6 .1 8E F a b : 5 .9 6
E sd : 1 .3 3E F sd : 1 .2 3
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A -F D D A M o d e l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
8
12
16
20
24
28
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 8
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 0 .2 3E F m b : 0 .0 6
E a b : 2 .3 6E F a b : 2 .4 7
E sd : 2 .6 5E F sd : 2 .7 9
E m b : 8 .1 6E F m b : 7 .2 5
E a b : 8 .1 6E F a b : 7 .2 5
E sd : 1 .8 1E F sd : 2 .0 2
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A -F D D A M o d e l
Regional Surface T &Td biasesAREA T mb (C) Td mb (C)
NB 3.8
SB 4.5
2 4.3 3.4
3 3.2 4.0
4 7.1 5.6
5 2.9 5.2
6 1.5 5.6
7 1.4 6.2
8 0.2 8.2
9 -1.3 3.2
Daytime T biasesAREA T mb (C)
NB 4
SB 5
2 -2
3 2
4 4
5 -1.5
6 -1
7 -2
8 -3
9 -3.5
Surface T & Td Summary
• Offshore and in Bay Area model has warm bias• As air parcels move inland, warm T bias
decreases and eventually disappears, Td moist bias increases
• As air parcels move inland, cold daytime bias increases
• CV has too small of an diurnal cycle in T• CV has too moist Td’s• Decreasing soil moisture will decrease cold
daytime bias, increase diurnal range, and reduce Td bias
BGBJD 213
RASS
Model
Difference
RMDJD 213
PSGJD 213
RDGJD 213
BKFJD 213
RASS Summary
• Model has cold bias of 2-3 C (esp daytime) too at least 600m AGL
• Model has too small of diurnal cycle
• Decreasing soil moisture will help both
Solar Radiation Analysis
• Could temperature errors be caused by clouds amount error in model?
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
10
15
20
25
30
35
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-5
0
5
10
15
20
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
R M D : 3 7 .9 5 N , 1 2 2 .4 0 W
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 2 .2 9
E a b : 2 .9 1
E sd : 2 .5 5
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
E m b : -7 .3 1
E a b : 7 .8 5
E sd : 4 .9 8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
400
800
1200
So
lar
[w/m
^2]
E m b : 1 6 .8 6
E a b : 5 3 .3 0
E sd : 1 0 9 .6 2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
15
20
25
30
35
40
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
P S G : 3 8 .7 7 N , 1 2 1 .5 2 W
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 1 .0 5
E a b : 2 .1 7
E sd : 2 .3 1
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
E m b : -3 .2 7
E a b : 5 .0 9
E sd : 5 .1 5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
200
400
600
800
1000
So
lar
[w/m
^2]
E m b : -1 2 .3 1
E a b : 4 8 .1 5
E sd : 1 0 3 .8 2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
R D G : 4 0 .5 2 N , 1 2 2 .3 0 W
O b serv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : -0 .8 2
E a b : 2 .4 2
E sd : 2 .6 8
O b se rv a tio n E T A M o d e l
E m b : 1 .4 9
E a b : 6 .2 0
E sd : 7 .6 5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
200
400
600
800
1000
So
lar
[w/m
^2]
E m b : 5 .8 1
E a b : 3 6 .2 7
E sd : 7 0 .6 8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
15
20
25
30
35
40
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
S V S : 3 7 .3 4 N , 1 2 0 .8 3 W
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 1 .0 7
E a b : 1 .6 5
E sd : 1 .7 8
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
E m b : -1 .4 0
E a b : 4 .3 6
E sd : 4 .9 7
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
400
800
1200
So
lar
[w/m
^2] E m b : 4 .1 5
E a b : 5 0 .5 4
E sd : 1 0 5 .8 2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
20
25
30
35
40
45
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
5
10
15
20
25
30
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
B K F : 3 5 .3 5 N , 1 1 8 .9 6 W
O b serv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : -0 .2 5
E a b : 2 .1 1
E sd : 2 .3 8
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
E m b : 5 .5 6
E a b : 6 .5 2
E sd : 6 .1 1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
400
800
1200
So
lar
[w/m
^2] E m b : -0 .3 4
E a b : 2 3 .4 2
E sd : 4 0 .2 9
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
12
16
20
24
28
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 7
O b serv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 1 .3 9E S W R m b : 2 .0 2
E ab : 2 .5 8E S W R a b : 2 .6 9
E sd : 2 .7 0E S W R sd : 2 .6 7
E m b : 6 .1 8E S W R m b : 6 .5 6
E ab : 6 .1 8E S W R a b : 6 .5 6
E sd : 1 .3 3E S W R sd : 1 .3 3
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A S W R a d . M o d e l
Solar Radiation Summary
• MM5 does a pretty good job of getting solar radiation correct. If anything, tends to over-predict solar radiation.
• To double check, ran simulation with cloud absorption turned off – little difference.
Z0T Simulation
• MM5 default has Z0T = Z0M, but it should have Z0T < Z0M
• Z0T = Z0M exp[-kC (Re*)1/2]
where Re*= Z0M u*/μ
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
12
16
20
24
28
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 7
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 1 .3 9E Z m b : 1 .4 5
E a b : 2 .5 8E Z a b : 2 .6 2
E sd : 2 .7 0E Z sd : 2 .7 3
E m b : 6 .1 8E Z m b : 5 .3 9
E a b : 6 .1 8E Z a b : 5 .3 9
E sd : 1 .3 3E Z sd : 1 .3 8
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A -Z T -Z il M o d e l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
1
2
3
4
Win
d S
peed [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
Win
d D
irectio
n [d
eg]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
U C
om
ponent [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-3
-2
-1
0
1
V C
om
ponent [m
/s]
A rea 7
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
O b serv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : -0 .0 7E Z m b : -0 .0 6
E T A -Z T -Z il M o d e l
E a b : 0 .6 4E Z a b : 0 .6 4
E sd : 0 .7 6E Z sd : 0 .7 6
E m b : 2 0 .8 6E Z m b : 2 0 .7 4
E a b : 4 7 .9 0E Z a b : 4 7 .2 9
E sd : 6 6 .4 6E Z sd : 6 6 .0 4
E m b : 0 .3 1E Z m b : 0 .3 1
E a b : 0 .6 5E Z a b : 0 .6 5
E sd : 0 .8 0E Z sd : 0 .8 1
E m b : 0 .0 9E Z m b : 0 .0 8
E a b : 0 .5 4E Z a b : 0 .5 4
E sd : 0 .6 6E Z sd : 0 .6 7
• Effect of Zilintinkevitch formulation only changes Td (for the better, reducing bias by ~15%)
Analysis Nudging
• Uses NCEP 40km gridded analysis
• Nudged only on 36km resolution outer MM5 grid
• No nudging within model diagnosed PBL
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
1
2
3
4
Win
d S
peed [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
Win
d D
irectio
n [d
eg]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-1
0
1
2
3
4
U C
om
ponent [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
V C
om
ponent [m
/s]
A rea 3
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
O b serv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 0 .0 2E U V m b : 0 .0 1
E T A N o U V M o d e l
E a b : 0 .3 5E U V a b : 0 .3 2
E sd : 0 .4 6E U V sd : 0 .3 8
E m b : -0 .8 6E U V m b : -0 .8 6
E a b : 1 9 .0 6E U V a b : 1 8 .9 5
E sd : 2 8 .8 9E U V sd : 2 8 .0 7
E m b : 0 .2 2E U V m b : 0 .2 3
E a b : 0 .3 7E U V a b : 0 .3 3
E sd : 0 .4 4E U V sd : 0 .3 8
E m b : 0 .0 3E U V m b : 0 .0 6
E a b : 0 .3 7E U V a b : 0 .3 4
E sd : 0 .4 5E U V sd : 0 .4 1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
1
2
3
4W
ind S
peed [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
Win
d D
irectio
n [d
eg]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
U C
om
ponent [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-3
-2
-1
0
1
V C
om
ponent [m
/s]
A rea 7
O b ser v a tio n E T A M o d e l
O b serv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : -0 .0 7E U V m b : 0 .0 7
E T A N o U V M o d e l
E a b : 0 .6 4E U V a b : 0 .6 4
E sd : 0 .7 6E U V sd : 0 .7 5
E m b : 2 0 .8 6E U V m b : 5 .3 6
E a b : 4 7 .9 0E U V a b : 3 8 .4 7
E sd : 6 6 .4 6E U V sd : 5 7 .7 3
E m b : 0 .3 1E U V m b : 0 .3 4
E a b : 0 .6 5E U V a b : 0 .6 0
E sd : 0 .8 0E U V sd : 0 .6 4
E m b : 0 .0 9E U V m b : 0 .0 5
E a b : 0 .5 4E U V a b : 0 .3 9
E sd : 0 .6 6E U V sd : 0 .5 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
0
1
2
3
4W
ind S
peed [m
/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
Wind D
irection [d
eg]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
U C
omponent [m/s]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
V C
omponent [m/s]
A rea 8
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l
O b serv a tio n an d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 0 .0 7E U V m b : 0 .1 5
E T A N o U V M o d e l
E a b : 0 .4 7E U V a b : 0 .4 3
E sd : 0 .5 6E U V sd : 0 .5 1
E m b : 3 0 .9 2E U V m b : 3 0 .7 7
E a b : 4 3 .7 9E U V a b : 5 1 .1 9
E sd : 4 7 .4 0E U V sd : 5 6 .6 1
E m b : 0 .5 6E U V m b : 0 .7 7
E a b : 0 .7 8E U V a b : 0 .8 2
E sd : 0 .7 2E U V sd : 0 .5 7
E m b : -0 .1 1E U V m b : -0 .1 4
E a b : 0 .4 9E U V a b : 0 .6 5
E sd : 0 .6 2E U V sd : 0 .8 2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
10
15
20
25
30
35
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
8
12
16
20
24
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 3
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 3 .2 3E U V m b : 4 .3 2
E a b : 3 .2 7E U V a b : 4 .3 2
E sd : 1 .4 4E U V sd : 1 .9 4
E m b : 3 .3 9E U V m b : 3 .2 1
E a b : 3 .4 0E U V a b : 3 .3 8
E sd : 1 .8 1E U V sd : 2 .0 0
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A N o U V M o d e l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
12
16
20
24
28
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 7
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 1 .3 9E U V m b : 1 .7 5
E a b : 2 .5 8E U V a b : 2 .6 6
E sd : 2 .7 0E U V sd : 2 .7 3
E m b : 6 .1 8E U V m b : 6 .5 4
E a b : 6 .1 8E U V a b : 6 .5 4
E sd : 1 .3 3E U V sd : 1 .4 7
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A N o U V M o d e l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r S ta rtin g 0 :0 0 U TC , Ju lia n D a y 2 1 2
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
0 20 40 60 80 100 120H o u r
8
12
16
20
24
28
De
wp
oin
t Te
mp
era
ture
[C]
A rea 8
O b se rv a tio n a n d M o d e l C o m p ariso n s
E m b : 0 .2 3E U V m b : 0 .5 1
E a b : 2 .3 6E U V a b : 2 .4 0
E sd : 2 .6 5E U V sd : 2 .7 1
E m b : 8 .1 6E U V m b : 8 .6 6
E a b : 8 .1 6E U V a b : 8 .6 6
E sd : 1 .8 1E U V sd : 2 .2 4
O b serv a tio n E T A M o d e l E T A N o U V M o d e l
Summary• Off-shore winds look reasonable, no significant speed
bias. Directions good except last 1-2 days, with model winds too northerly.
• Surface T & Td and RASS assessments show:– Off-shore temps too warm due to lack of strong marine layer in
the model.– In-valley surface T and Td biases become progressively cool
and moist the further inland parcels go– model has cool bias to at least 700m AGL, and too small an
amplitude to diurnal cycle• Solar radiation is not source of in-valley temperature
errors.• New ZT formulation only improves Td, not T.• Most likely that in-valley temperature errors are caused
by land-surface model and/or too much soil moisture• Analysis nudging run likely gives best winds so far. Will
it give better ozone predictions?
Simulation Status
• Two additional analysis nudging simulations completed, not yet analysed– 36 km grid, all levels except surface– 36 km grid, all levels including surface
• Simulations planned– Reduced soil moisture (will it cause too much inflow
through Bay Area?)– Alternate ZT formulations– Analysis nudging on 12 km grid– Combined analysis/obs nudging (with vertical
spreading of obs)