module 17 mm5: climate simulation
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Module 17 MM5: Climate Simulation. William J. Gutowski, Jr. Iowa State University. Module 17 MM5: Climate Simulation. Examples of MM5 climate simulation: North America Arctic. Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation
William J. Gutowski, Jr.William J. Gutowski, Jr.Iowa State UniversityIowa State University
Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation
Examples of MM5 climate simulation:Examples of MM5 climate simulation: North AmericaNorth America ArcticArctic
W. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanW. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanInternational Institute of Theoretical and Applied International Institute of Theoretical and Applied
PhysicsPhysicsIowa State UniversityIowa State University
(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)
Project to Intercompare Regional Project to Intercompare Regional Climate SimulationsClimate Simulations
(PIRCS)(PIRCS)
PIRCS Participating ModelsPIRCS Participating Models• Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)
• Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)
• NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong) NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong)
• NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)
• CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)
• Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)
• Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)
• Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)
• Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)
• SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)
• NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)
• ETH (D. Luethi)ETH (D. Luethi)
• Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)
• Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)
• Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)
PIRCS MissionPIRCS Mission
Evaluate regional climate simulation by Evaluate regional climate simulation by mesoscale models, using a mesoscale models, using a common common frameworkframework
Summer 1988 - Drought
Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA
Jet Stream
Cool &Damp
Weak & Dry Southerly Flow
Heat Wave
Heat Wave
Summer 1993 - Flood
Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA
Jet StreamCool
Warm & Moist Southerly Flow
FLood
Experiment 1Experiment 1
15 May - 13 July 1988(Drought)
1 June - 30 July 1993 (Flood)
PeriodsPeriods
Experiment 1Experiment 1
IC: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, including soil moisture
BC: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis Additional surface temperatures:
Great Lakes observations Gulf of California satellite retrievals
Initial/Boundary ConditionsInitial/Boundary Conditions
Model Domains
MM5
500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis
1988
500 hPa RMSD
0
20
40
60
80
100
136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196
Julian Day
RegCM2
RAMS
DARLAM
HIRHAM
Scripps RSM
NCEP RSM
MM5-BATS
500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis
1993
500 mb RMSD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241Time period (6 hourly)
DARLAM RSM-Scripps ETHHIRHAM MM5-BATS RSM-NCEPClimRAMS RCA RegCM2RUC UQAM
ReanalysisReanalysisLLJLLJ
00 UTC00 UTC06 UTC06 UTC12 UTC12 UTC18 UTC18 UTC
12 24 36 48 60 72 84%
MM5MM5LLJLLJ
00 UTC00 UTC06 UTC06 UTC12 UTC12 UTC18 UTC18 UTC
12 24 36 48 60 72 84%
Precipitation RegionsPrecipitation Regions
UpperMiss.
SWSE
NW
Comparison of PIRCS models with Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysisgridded precipitation analysis
Precipitation over Upper Mississippi River Basin
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196Julian Day
Observed MM5-BATS
RSM-Scripps RSM-NCEP
DARLAM HIRHAM
RegCM2 RAMS
Precipitation - Southwest Monsoon RegionPrecipitation - Southwest Monsoon Region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192
Julian Day (15 May 1988 - 15 July 1988)
Observed RSM - Scripps
RSM - NCEP DARLAM
HIRHAM MM5-BATS
RegCM2 RAMS - ISU
0
5
10
15
20
136 140 144 148 152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196
Julian Day (15 May 1988 - 15 July 1988)
Observed RSM - Scripps
RSM - NCEP DARLAM
HIRHAM MM5-BATS
REGCM2
Precipitation - Pacific NorthwestPrecipitation - Pacific Northwest
0
5
10
15
20
25
136 140 144 148 152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192
Julian Day
Observed RSM - Scripps
RSM - NCEP DARLAM
HIRHAM MM5-BATS
RegCM2 RAMS - ISU
Precipitation - SoutheastPrecipitation - Southeast
Comparison of PIRCS models with Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysisgridded precipitation analysis
Accumulated Precipitation
0
100
200
300
400
500DARLAM RSM-ScrippsETH HIRHAMMM5-BATS RSM-NCEPClimRAMS RCARegCM2 RUCUQAM Obs (Higgins)Model Mean VEMAPMM5-ANL
Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJune 1988June 1988
[mm/d][mm/d]
CompositeComposite
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
MM5/BATSMM5/BATS
Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJuly 1993July 1993
[mm/d][mm/d]-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
CompositeComposite
MM5/BATSMM5/BATS
?
~ 200 mm
MM5/LSMMM5/LSM
From From Storm Data Storm Data
ReportsReports(9 June 1993)(9 June 1993)
Dawson,Howard,Martin &Dawson,Howard,Martin &Midland Counties Midland Counties (West Texas):(West Texas): Flash FloodsFlash Floods Hail Hail ~ 6” (150 mm) precip.~ 6” (150 mm) precip.
~ 200 mm
MM5/LSMMM5/LSM
FIFE Field CampaignFIFE Field Campaign
KansasKansas
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
OBSERVED
LatentSensibleInc. SW
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
NCEP RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
SCRIPPS RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
Hour
REGCM2
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
MM5-BATS
Hour
CLIMRAMS
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
ISU RAMS
Hour
HIRHAM DARLAM
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
OBSERVED
LatentSensibleInc. SW
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
NCEP RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
SCRIPPS RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
Hour
REGCM2
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
MM5-BATS
Hour
CLIMRAMS
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
ISU RAMS
Hour
HIRHAM DARLAM
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Daily Maximum Temperature
FIFEECPCRSMM5BTSNCPRSMRAMSGLREGCM2
Day of Year
280
285
290
295
300
305
310
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Daily Minimum Temperature
FIFEECPCRSMM5BTSNCPRSMRAMSGLREGCM2
Day of Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Latent Heat Flux
FIFE-sdevFIFE+sdevNCEPMM5-BATSScripps
REGCM2HIRHAMDARLAMRAMSGL(SM)
Day of Year
-50
0
50
100
150
200
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Sensible Heat Flux
FIFE-sdev
FIFE+sdev
NCEP
MM5-BATS
SCRIPPS
REGCM2
HIRHAM
DARLAM
Day of Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Incident Shortwave Radiation
FIFE-sdevFIFE+sdevNCEPMM5-BATS
SCRIPPSREGCM2HIRHAMDARLAM
Day of Year
Acknowledgments - PIRCSAcknowledgments - PIRCS
• Primary Funding: Primary Funding:
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)• Guidance/Support: Guidance/Support:
Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay, Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay,
Filippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP groupFilippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP group• Special Thanks: Special Thanks:
Participating ModelersParticipating Modelers
Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation
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