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Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2 nd , 2019

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Page 1: Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2nd, 2019 · Canada US North America Total North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs

Update on Q3 and 2019 Market ConditionsOctober 2nd, 2019

Page 2: Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2nd, 2019 · Canada US North America Total North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs

2

Certain information regarding Linamar set forth in this presentation and oral summary, including

managements assessment of the Company’s future plans and operations may constitute

forward-looking statements. This information is based on current expectations that are subject to

significant risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially

from these anticipated in the forward-looking statements due to factors such as customer

demand and timing of buying decisions, product mix, competitive products and pricing pressure.

In addition, uncertainties and difficulties in domestic and foreign financial markets and economies

could adversely affect demand from customers. These factors, as well as general economic and

political conditions, may in turn have a material adverse effect on the Company’s financial

results. The Company assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements, or to

update the reasons why actual results could differ from those reflected in the forward-looking

statements. Content is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced or repurposed without

express written consent by the Company.

Forward Looking Information, Risk

and Uncertainties

22

2

Page 3: Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2nd, 2019 · Canada US North America Total North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs

3

Conditions in the Access Equipment, Agriculture and Automotive markets have continued to soften since the expectations cited on the Linamar Q2 Earnings call that was held on August 8, 2019. The following pages are intended to provide a brief overview of industry conditions

Access Market Top construction equipment rental operators in Access Market reducing capital

expenditure plans from previously stated expectations

Agriculture Market Global trade uncertainty continues to weigh negatively on Agriculture sector in

North America as dealers and farmers delay equipment buying decisions

Automotive Market UAW strike which began on September 16th at GM in North America is

negatively impacting Q3 Light Vehicle Production.

The resultant decline in GM orders are currently estimated to impact Linamar earnings at a rate of up to $1 M CAD/day of strike.

Overall Global LV Production expected to be down from previous June forecast in Q3 and 2019E full year

On the plus side we are seeing more in the way of conquest or takeover business due to failing suppliers that will positively impact future sales, a key advantage for Linamar thanks to our rapid response capabilities and flexible equipment philosophy

Q3 Market Conditions Key Summary

Page 4: Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2nd, 2019 · Canada US North America Total North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs

4

Access Market

The Access Market in North America and Europe for core

scissor and boom products has continued to weaken based on

estimates for July and August vs same period in 20181

Industry volumes now expected to be down in the range

of 15-25% in Q3 for these products and markets, a

significant deterioration over expectations at Q2 release

and actuals in H1 2019

This will likely result in YTD market declines for these

products and markets in double digits unless we see a

significant recovery in Q4, which is unlikely

Rental Company Capital Expenditure:

Key construction equipment rental customers continue

to reduce their planned 2019 capital expenditure plan

spend

Some companies choosing to age fleet more than

anticipated in effort to maximize rental utilization

Note 1: Industry estimates based on Internal Calculations for North America and Europe regions. Comparison of cumulative 2 months end July and

August vs same period 2018. July & August is only industry comparison available at the time of this update report publication.

Page 5: Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2nd, 2019 · Canada US North America Total North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs

5

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Canada US North America Total

North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year

Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs 2018 Aug QTD 2019 vs 2018

Agriculture Market

In MacDon’s primary North American market, global trade

wars continue to weigh on the industry

North American Combine Industry Retail Sales are down 20%

for two months ended July and August vs same period in

20182, a deterioration over Q2 vs prior year and a significant

deterioration over H1 vs prior year

Combine sales are a key industry indicator for MacDon’s product

demand

Crop conditions, stagnant commodity prices and the ongoing

trade war between the US and China are all negative factors

influencing investment decisions of farmers when considering

equipment replacement

Note 2: Industry estimates based on Industry Reports for Combine Retail Sales Report for Canada and U.S. Markets. Comparison of cumulative 2 months end July + August vs same period 2018. July &

August is only industry data available at the time of this update report publication.

Page 6: Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2nd, 2019 · Canada US North America Total North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs

6

Automotive Market: Q3 2019 Down 1.1 Million Units vs Prior Forecast

21.2

-0.14

-0.12

-0.12

-0.10

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.05

-0.05

-0.28

22.3

21.0

21.2

21.4

21.6

21.8

22.0

22.2

22.4

IHS

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Veh

icle

Pro

duct

ion

(mil)

Q3-2019 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By OEMChange in Forecast Sep-2019 vs. Jun-2019

21.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.1

-0.8

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

22.3

21.0

21.2

21.4

21.6

21.8

22.0

22.2

22.4

Jun-2019Fcst

Europe GreaterChina

Japan/Korea

MiddleEast/Africa

NorthAmerica

SouthAmerica

SouthAsia

Sep-2019Fcst

Veh

icle

Pro

duct

ion

(mil)

Q3-2019 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By RegionChange in Forecast Sep-2019 vs. Jun-2019

Source: IHS, September 2019 (adjusted for impact of UAW Strike at General Motors)

Page 7: Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2nd, 2019 · Canada US North America Total North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs

7

89.3

-0.3

-1.2

-0.0 -0.8 -0.0 -0.1

-0.6

91.6

88.0

88.5

89.0

89.5

90.0

90.5

91.0

91.5

92.0

Jun-2019Fcst

Europe GreaterChina

Japan/Korea

MiddleEast/Africa

NorthAmerica

SouthAmerica

South Asia Sep-2019Fcst

Veh

icle

Pro

duct

ion

(mil)

2019 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By RegionChange in Forecast Sep-2019 vs. Jun-2019 Previous

89.3

-0.30

-0.28

-0.23

-0.22

-0.19

-0.17-0.12

-0.12-0.12

-0.11

-0.45

91.6

88.0

88.5

89.0

89.5

90.0

90.5

91.0

91.5

92.0

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ata

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GM

Oth

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IHS

Fcs

t(S

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Veh

icle

Pro

duct

ion

(mil)

2019 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By OEMChange in Forecast Sep-2019 vs. Jun-2019 Previous

Source: IHS, September 2019 (adjusted for impact of UAW Strike at General Motors)

Automotive Market: 2019 FY Down 2.3 Million Units vs Prior Forecast

Page 8: Update on Q3 and 2019 Market Conditions October 2nd, 2019 · Canada US North America Total North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs

Linamar Corporation

@linamarcorp

www.linamar.com

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