update on q3 and 2019 market conditions october 2nd, 2019 · canada us north america total north...
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Update on Q3 and 2019 Market ConditionsOctober 2nd, 2019
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Certain information regarding Linamar set forth in this presentation and oral summary, including
managements assessment of the Company’s future plans and operations may constitute
forward-looking statements. This information is based on current expectations that are subject to
significant risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially
from these anticipated in the forward-looking statements due to factors such as customer
demand and timing of buying decisions, product mix, competitive products and pricing pressure.
In addition, uncertainties and difficulties in domestic and foreign financial markets and economies
could adversely affect demand from customers. These factors, as well as general economic and
political conditions, may in turn have a material adverse effect on the Company’s financial
results. The Company assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements, or to
update the reasons why actual results could differ from those reflected in the forward-looking
statements. Content is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced or repurposed without
express written consent by the Company.
Forward Looking Information, Risk
and Uncertainties
22
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Conditions in the Access Equipment, Agriculture and Automotive markets have continued to soften since the expectations cited on the Linamar Q2 Earnings call that was held on August 8, 2019. The following pages are intended to provide a brief overview of industry conditions
Access Market Top construction equipment rental operators in Access Market reducing capital
expenditure plans from previously stated expectations
Agriculture Market Global trade uncertainty continues to weigh negatively on Agriculture sector in
North America as dealers and farmers delay equipment buying decisions
Automotive Market UAW strike which began on September 16th at GM in North America is
negatively impacting Q3 Light Vehicle Production.
The resultant decline in GM orders are currently estimated to impact Linamar earnings at a rate of up to $1 M CAD/day of strike.
Overall Global LV Production expected to be down from previous June forecast in Q3 and 2019E full year
On the plus side we are seeing more in the way of conquest or takeover business due to failing suppliers that will positively impact future sales, a key advantage for Linamar thanks to our rapid response capabilities and flexible equipment philosophy
Q3 Market Conditions Key Summary
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Access Market
The Access Market in North America and Europe for core
scissor and boom products has continued to weaken based on
estimates for July and August vs same period in 20181
Industry volumes now expected to be down in the range
of 15-25% in Q3 for these products and markets, a
significant deterioration over expectations at Q2 release
and actuals in H1 2019
This will likely result in YTD market declines for these
products and markets in double digits unless we see a
significant recovery in Q4, which is unlikely
Rental Company Capital Expenditure:
Key construction equipment rental customers continue
to reduce their planned 2019 capital expenditure plan
spend
Some companies choosing to age fleet more than
anticipated in effort to maximize rental utilization
Note 1: Industry estimates based on Internal Calculations for North America and Europe regions. Comparison of cumulative 2 months end July and
August vs same period 2018. July & August is only industry comparison available at the time of this update report publication.
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-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Canada US North America Total
North America Industry Combine Retail Unit Sales vs Prior Year
Q1 2019 vs 2018 Q2 2019 vs 2018 Aug QTD 2019 vs 2018
Agriculture Market
In MacDon’s primary North American market, global trade
wars continue to weigh on the industry
North American Combine Industry Retail Sales are down 20%
for two months ended July and August vs same period in
20182, a deterioration over Q2 vs prior year and a significant
deterioration over H1 vs prior year
Combine sales are a key industry indicator for MacDon’s product
demand
Crop conditions, stagnant commodity prices and the ongoing
trade war between the US and China are all negative factors
influencing investment decisions of farmers when considering
equipment replacement
Note 2: Industry estimates based on Industry Reports for Combine Retail Sales Report for Canada and U.S. Markets. Comparison of cumulative 2 months end July + August vs same period 2018. July &
August is only industry data available at the time of this update report publication.
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Automotive Market: Q3 2019 Down 1.1 Million Units vs Prior Forecast
21.2
-0.14
-0.12
-0.12
-0.10
-0.08
-0.07
-0.06
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.28
22.3
21.0
21.2
21.4
21.6
21.8
22.0
22.2
22.4
IHS
Fcs
t(J
un-1
9)
Suz
uki
Vol
ksw
agen GM
Hyu
ndai
-Kia
SA
IC-G
M-
Wul
ing
Gee
ly
FC
A
Mah
indr
a &
Mah
indr
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Tat
a
Gre
at W
all
Oth
er
IHS
Fcs
t(S
ep-1
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Veh
icle
Pro
duct
ion
(mil)
Q3-2019 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By OEMChange in Forecast Sep-2019 vs. Jun-2019
21.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
22.3
21.0
21.2
21.4
21.6
21.8
22.0
22.2
22.4
Jun-2019Fcst
Europe GreaterChina
Japan/Korea
MiddleEast/Africa
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
SouthAsia
Sep-2019Fcst
Veh
icle
Pro
duct
ion
(mil)
Q3-2019 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By RegionChange in Forecast Sep-2019 vs. Jun-2019
Source: IHS, September 2019 (adjusted for impact of UAW Strike at General Motors)
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89.3
-0.3
-1.2
-0.0 -0.8 -0.0 -0.1
-0.6
91.6
88.0
88.5
89.0
89.5
90.0
90.5
91.0
91.5
92.0
Jun-2019Fcst
Europe GreaterChina
Japan/Korea
MiddleEast/Africa
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
South Asia Sep-2019Fcst
Veh
icle
Pro
duct
ion
(mil)
2019 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By RegionChange in Forecast Sep-2019 vs. Jun-2019 Previous
89.3
-0.30
-0.28
-0.23
-0.22
-0.19
-0.17-0.12
-0.12-0.12
-0.11
-0.45
91.6
88.0
88.5
89.0
89.5
90.0
90.5
91.0
91.5
92.0
IHS
Fcs
t(J
un-1
9)
Suz
uki
SA
IC-G
M-
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ing
Vol
ksw
agen
Hyu
ndai
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Gee
ly
Gre
at W
all
Gua
ngzh
ouA
uto T
ata
Mah
indr
a &
Mah
indr
a
GM
Oth
er
IHS
Fcs
t(S
ep-1
9)
Veh
icle
Pro
duct
ion
(mil)
2019 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By OEMChange in Forecast Sep-2019 vs. Jun-2019 Previous
Source: IHS, September 2019 (adjusted for impact of UAW Strike at General Motors)
Automotive Market: 2019 FY Down 2.3 Million Units vs Prior Forecast
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Linamar Corporation
@linamarcorp
www.linamar.com
Thank You