UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA

DEVELOPING AN EXPERT SYSTEM TO PREDICT THE EFFECT OF SELECTIVE LOGGING ON LARGE MAMMALS

MOUTASIM GAMMAR ELDIN ISMAIL

FK 2001 32

DEVELOPING AN EXPERT SYSTEM TO PREDICT THE EFFECT OF SELECTIVE LOGGING ON LARGE MAMMALS

By

MOUTASIM GAMMAR ELDIN ISMAIL

Thesis Submitted in Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master of Science in the Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Putra Malaysia

January 200t

DEDICATION

To the soul of my father Gamar Eldin

To my beloved wife Dar Elnaiem,

daughter Eithar, son Gamar Eldin

and all my family

I dedicate this work with great love and appreciation for their kindness,

Encouragement and effort

ii

Abstract of thesis presented to the Senate ofUniversiti Putra Malaysia in fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science

DEVELOPING AN EXPERT SYSTEM TO PREDICT THE EFFECT OF SELECTIVE LOGGING ON LARGE MAMMALS

By

MOUTASIM GAMAR ELDIN ISMAIL

January 2001

Chairman: Mohamed Bin Daud, Ph.D., MBA.

Faculty: Engineering

Expert systems have started to play an important role in this era of knowledge.

As we move from information age to knowledge age, management and organization of

human expertise will have a great impact in all aspects of life in terms of time saving

and money.

An expert system (ES) to predict the effect of selective logging on large

mammals was developed through a combination of results from field survey,

interviews with domain experts and data from Department of Wildlife and National

Parks, Malaysia. The field survey was carried out for track identification of four large

mammals (barking deer, sambar deer, tapir and wild boar), vegetation and

microclimate measurements. ANOV A analysis of variance, regression and sensitivity

analysis were used to test the data. The problems related to selective logging and the

various aspects of its effects on large mammals were translated into specific rules and

incorporated into the ES. The data and information were stored in databases, which

iii

can be updated and referred to in the ES. The program provides information for

courses and teaching purposes as well as acting as advisor to draw conclusions. In

addition to this it helps wildlifers and foresters on decision making on the effect of

selective logging on large mammals.

lV

Abstrak tesis yang dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai memenuhi keperluan untuk ijazah Master Sains.

PEMBANGUNAN SISTEM PAKAR UNTUK MERAMALKAN KESAN PENEBANGAN POKOK TERPILIH PADA MAMALIA

Oleh

MOUTASIM GAMAR ELDIN ISMAIL

January 2001

Pengerusi: Mohamed Bin Daud, Ph.D., MBA.

Fakulti: Kejuruteraan

Sistem Pakar memainkan peranan penting dalam era pengetahuan kini.

Perubahan kepakaran manusia daripada era maklumat kepada pengurusan

pengetahuan dan organisasi akan memberikan kesan yang baik dalam semua aspek

kehidupan dalam ertikata menjimat mas a dan wang.

Sistem Pakar atau (Expert System) untuk meramal kesan tempat tinggal keatas

mamalia besar telah dibina melalui gabungan keputusan daripada lapangan, temuduga

dengan pakar utama dan data daripada jabatan perlindungan hidupan liar dan taman

negara Malaysia. Lapagan kajian dijalankan dengan mengenalpasti jejak empat

kumpulan erbesar mamalia (rosa 'barking' , rosa "sambar' , tapir dan babi liar),

kumpulan tumbuhan dan penentuan cuaca-mikro. Anova analisa varians, regrasi dan

sensitiviti telah digunakan untuk menguji data. Masalah berhubung dengan pemilihan

temp at tinggal dan pelbagai aspek yang memberi banyak kesan kepada mamalia besar

telah ditukar kepada peraturan tertentu dan termaktub dalam sistem pakar. Data dan

v

maklumat disimpan dalam pengelasan data dan boleh ditingatkan dan di rujuk melalui

sistem pakar. Program ini menyediakan maklumat untuk kursus kursus dan tujuan

pengajaran sebagai mana disarankan oleh penasihat. Perkara ini juga membantu

hidupan liar dan rimbawan untuk membuat keputusan atas kesan memilih temp at

tinggal mamalia besar.

vi

AKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First, I would like to thank Associate Professor Dr. Jr. Mohamed Bin Daud, the

chainnan of my supervisory committee, for his inspiration, guidance, intelligent

advice and various logistic supports throughout my study. His enthusiasm and

patience have left a feeling of indebtedness that cannot be fully expressed.

My acknowledgement, deep appreciation and sincere gratitude also extended

to Professor Dato. Dr. Ir. Mohd. Zohadie Bardaie, a member of the supervisory

committee, for his kind co-operation, contribution to guide this study and thoughtful

suggestions.

I must also thank Dr. Mohamad Zakaria Hussain who contributed much to the

success of this research. l owe him a great deal of gratitude and appreciation for his

supervision, correction and helpful comments in improving this study. I would like to

extend my gratitude to Sudan Government Upper Nile University and the Government

of Malaysia for their support to this study. I would also like to thank the Department

of Wildlife and National Parks, for their assistance in providing infonnation and

expertise.

My special thanks to all members of the Expert System Group, Faculty of

Engineering, for their helps co-operation and assistance.

Vll

Last but not least, my thanks to my blessed mother Khadeega who has always

prayed for me, my brothers Ismail, Omar, Khaleel, Abbas, Mahmood, Talal, and my

sisters Fatima, Inam, Amna, Tegwa, Ferha, and Merwa for there encouragement.

On top of all, praise is to the Almighty Allah S . W. T. I would not have been

able to complete this study without His help.

viii

I certify that an Examination Committee met on January 9th 2001 to conduct the final examination of Moutasim Gamar Eldin Ismail on his Master of Science thesis entitled "Developing An Expert System to Predict the Effect of Selective Logging on Large Mammals" in accordance with Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (Higher Degree) Act 1980 and Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (Higher Degree) Regulation 1981. The Committee recommends that the candidate be awarded the relevant degree. The Committee Members for the candidate are as follows:

WAN ISHAK WAN ISMAIL, Ph.D. Associate Professor Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia (Chairman)

Mohamed Bin Daud, Ph.D., Ir. Associate Professor Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member)

Mohamed Zakaria Hussin, Ph.D. Lecturer Faculty of Forestry Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member)

Mohd. Zohadie, Ph.D., Ir. Professor Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member)

HAZAti MOHA YIDIN, Ph.D. Professo eputy Dean of Graduate School Universiti Putra Malaysia

Date: 0 6 fEB 2001

ix

This thesis submitted to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia has been accepted as fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science.

MO�OHAYIDIJIi' Ph.D. Professor Deputy Dean of Graduate School Universiti Putra Malaysia Date:

x

DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the thesis is based on my original work except for quotations and citations, which have been duly acknowledged. I declare that this thesis has not been previously or concurrently submitted for any other degree at UPM or any other institutions.

(Moutasim Gamar Eldin Ismail)

Date:

Xl

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page DEDICATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . . . .. . .. . . . . . . iii ABSTRAK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ... . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . vii APPROVAL SlIEETS .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix DECLARATION FORM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii LIST OF PLATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xx

CHAPTER

I.

II.

INTRODUCTION ................................................................ 1 Statement of the Problem Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Significance of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Expected Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2 3 3 4

LITERA TURE REVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Selective Logging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............... ..... ........... 6 Effects of Selective Logging on Animals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Effects on Microclimate

Description and Conservation Status of Mammals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

14

16

Expert Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 21

Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... 21

Concepts of Expert Systems 24

Major Components of an Expert System . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .................... 25

Expert System Tools . ... . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . ................... 26

Domain Experts 29

111 MATERIAL AND METHODS ................................................. 32

Initial Knowledge Acquisition .................................................... 34

Research Methods 37

xii

IV

V

Location and Total Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 40

Surveys 44

Track Identification and Animal Count . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 45

Vegetation and Meteorological Measurements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Refining Knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Field survey 48

Domain Experts Consultations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Expert System Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 50 Initial Consultations with Domain Experts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Knowledge from Field Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . 54

Abundance

Photography

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 54

57

Vegetation Cover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , 57

Microclimate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Refining Knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 61

Field Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1

Sensitivity Results 62

66 Interviews

Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1

Expert System Development 78

Example of Rule Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Testing and Validation

CONCLUSIONS

Limitation of the Expert System

Future Work

103

107

1 10 111

REFERENCES 1 12

APPENDIX

A

B

C

D

Summary of Field Data

Data Sheet

Footprint Drawings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Questionnaire For Experts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..

xiii

1 1 8

1 18

12 1

123

124

E An Expert System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................... ....................... 127 VITA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

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LIST OF TABLES

Table Page

1 Description of Malayan Tapir 16

2 Description of Bearded Pig 17

3 Description of Barking Deer 18

4 Description of Sambar Deer 19

5 Summary of Basic Information on Six Large Mammals 35

6 Causes of Tree Mortality 50

7 Disturbance Percentage and Total Damage Caused by Selective Logging Using Hauling Tractors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

8 Forest Size in Relation to Home Range Size 52

9 Food Types and Changes Following Food Scarcity 53

10 Number of FootprintslKm2 of Large Mammals 54

11 Relative Abundance of Barking Deer 55

12 Relative Abundance of Sambar Deer 55

13 Relative Abundance of Tapir 56

14 Relative Abundance of Wild boar 56

15 Average Tree Height and Canopy Covers 57

16 Average Temperature Relative Humidity and Light Intensity 60

17 Correlation between the Number of Footprints and Microclimate 62

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18 Decrease in the Number of Footprints of Sambar Deer Following Increased Relative Humidity (C 18) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

19 Increase in the Number of Footprints of Sambar Deer Following Increased Light Intensity (C 18) . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

20 Increase in the Number of Footprints of Tapir Following Increased Light Intensity (24 VIR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

2 1 Increase in the Number of Footprints of Wild Boar Following Increased Light Intensity (24 VIR) . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

22 Summary of the General Mitigation Measures 67

23 Effect of Selective Logging at <50% Disturbance on Large Mammals and the Possible Mitigation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

24 Effect of Selective Logging at 50-60% Disturbance on Large Mammals and the Possible Mitigation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

25 Effect of Selective Logging at >60% Disturbance on Large Mammals and the Possible Mitigation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

26 Rules Development 78

27 Combination of Animal Selection and Disturbance Levels 83

28 Combination of Disturbance Percentage and Forest Size 87

29 Combination of Forest Size and Forest Continuation 89

30 Combination of Forest Continuation and Food! Prey Availability 90

31 Combination of Food Availability and Salt Lick Accessibility 92

32 Summary of General Effects and Mitigation Measures 101

33 Validation of Effects and Mitigation Measures 105

34 Comparison of Results Between Expert System to Actual Case 106

xvi

Figure

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12a

12b

13

14

15

16

17

LIST OF FIGURES

Major Components of an Expert System

Conceptual Framework

Study Sites

Opening Menu of Expert System

Selection Menu with Mammal Options

Selection of Disturbance Percentage

Forest Size Selection

Selection of Forest Continuation

Selection of Prey Species

Selection of Food Availability

Selection of Salt Lick Accessibility

Logging Effects, Mitigation Measures and Selection Status A

Logging Effects, Mitigation Measures and Selection Status B

Forest Selection

Forest Continuation Selection

Disturbance Percentage Selection

Animal List, Mitigation Measures and Selection Status

Message Box from Mammal Icon

xvii

Page

26

33

41

82

82

86

88

90

91

93

94

96

96

97

98

98

99

100

18

19

20

Message Box from Logging Icon

Mitigation Icon

Message Box from Mitigation Icon

xviii

102

102

103

Plate

1

2

3

4

Barking Deer Footprints

Wild Boar Footprints

Sambar Deer Footprints

Wild Boar Wallow

LIST OF PLATES

XIX

Page

58

58

59

59

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ft Feet

h Hour

AI Artificial Intelligence

FR Forest Reserve

Gill Graphical User Interface

IE Inference Engine

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

KB Knowledge Base

LHS Left Hand Side

LISP Programming Language based on list processing.

LRB Langat River Basin

MYCN A classic expert system developed to diagnose Infectious blood diseases and help doctors recommend the appropriate treatment.

PROLOG Program in Logic

PROSPECTOR An expert system for helping to find ore deposits

RHS Right Hand Side

TMP Third Malaysia Plan

UKM Universiti Kabansaan Malaysia

VJR Virgin Jungle Forest

WM Working Memory

xx

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

The problem of selective logging and its effect on fauna and flora has

recently become an important issue and there is a need for more public awareness

and consciousness.

The overall objective of this study is to develop an expert system to predict

the effect of selective logging on large mammals. This is accomplished by using

primary data from field survey and observations of four species of large mammals

(tapir, wild boar, sambar and barking deer), and secondary data from interviews with

two wildlife experts on six large mammals (elephant, seladang, rhino, tiger, leopard

and sun bear).

Vegetation cover and microclimate measurements at three compartments in

Sungai Lalang Forest Reserve, and data from various sources mainly interviews with

wildlife experts were used. All types of data were integrated with statistical analysis

that provided numerical relations. This data was incorporated in the expert system

using rules in the form of IF and THEN.

2

Statement of the Problem

In Malaysia, of an estimated 19.8 million ha of remaining forest in 1986, 14.8

million ha (74.7%) were reserved as production forests and subject to selective

logging (Lambert, 1 992).

Economic development is almost inevitably synonymous with disturbance or

destruction of the natural habitat. The prospects for survival of rain-forest wildlife in

such areas are bleak (John 1985). Therefore, study on development activities resulting

in varied habitat destruction and effects on the existing wildlife are necessary.

In order to protect and conserve natural forest and to maintain its unique

biological diversity, it is important to increase public awareness and education level of

conservation issues. It is also important to provide a reliable management tool to

assist decision-makers to achieve at the favor of conservation. This study is an attempt

to help those people in increasing awareness, making decision and providing

infonnation to end-users.

3

Objectives

The purpose of this study is to assist management in predicting the effect of

selective logging on large mammals. The specific objectives of this study are:

1 . To study the effect of selective logging on large mammals.

2. To study the effect of selective logging on micro-climatic variables and their

relation to the effect on large mammals.

3 . To extract knowledge in relation to the effect of selective logging on large

mammals.

4. To develop a comprehensive expert system to predict the effect of selective

logging on large mammals. This expert system will be used as a tool to assist

people to react to the problem of selective logging. It can also be used to increase

public awareness, teaching, decision-making, management and development.

Significance of the Study

Knowledge could be incorporated into an expert system. This expert system

can predict the level of selective logging that affects, the impacts on mammals

inhabiting the forest and the extent of damage on the forest.

4

The expert system can provide predictions on the degree and/or the type of

effects that may occur when applying specific percentage of selective logging. This

should increase cautiousness about the practice of selective logging.

Most important is that this expert system can become a very useful managerial

tool for wildlife and forestry departments. It can be used as a powerful tool to increase

awareness and to assist in decision-making.

The expected outcome of this research is an expert system that can be used in

predicting the effect of selective logging on large mammals. The knowledge about

selective logging, i ts effects and the possible mitigation measures is incorporated in

such expert system.

Expected Results of the Study

The outcome of this study is to provide information on large mammals and

their relation to selective logging and micro-climatic variables. This knowledge was

extracted from field survey and domain experts. It was incorporated into an expert

system that can be used for predicting the effect of selective logging on large

mammals in Malaysia. It includes the percentage of logging, forest size and food

availability. It is visualized that the ES would become a very useful prediction and

decision-making tool . The expert system developed could only be used to evaluate