understanding activity patterns and trends david levinson

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Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

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Page 1: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends

David Levinson

Page 2: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Introduction

• Travel and Activity are Two Sides of the Same Coin

• Time in Travel is inseparable from Time at Activity

• Activities Considered (Home, Work, Shop, Other)

• Daily Activity Budget (24 hrs)

Page 3: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Space-Time Prism

Chances

Time-Axis

X-Axis8:00 am Home

Y-Axis

8:20 am

2:20 pm

1:20 pm

5:10 pm

4:45 pm

5:15 pm

5:20 pm

1:30 pm

2:10 pm

Store

Lunch

Work

Page 4: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

2001 NHTS: Trips By Purpose

Page 5: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Washington DC Metropolitan Area1968 to 1988

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Capacity Population Households Autos VMT

Percentage Change

Montgomery County Trends

Page 6: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Patterns

Type # Tour type Coding1 Simple work H-W-H2 Simple maintenance H-M-H3 Simple discretionary H-D-H4 Complex work only H-W-W-…-H5 Complex maintenance only or

Complex discretionary onlyH-M-M-…-HH-D-D-…-H

6 Complex work + maintenance only H-W-M-…-H*7 Complex work + discretionary only H-W-D-…-H*8 Complex maintenance + discretionary only H-M-D-…-H*9 Complex work + maintenance +

DiscretionaryH-W-M-D-H*

*tripmaking could take place in any order

Page 7: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Information Networks

• Fundamental question … how do we choose non-work destinations?

• First time (acquire information)• Repeats (experience, habit)• Choose between known and

unknown destinations.

Page 8: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Where does Information Come From

• Formal: media networks: TV, Radio, Internet, Yellow Pages

• Informal: social networks

Page 9: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Changes in RetailStores By Type

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

Number of Stores

Chain Drug StoreIndependent Drug StoreMass MerchandiserSupermarket

Page 10: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Economies of Scale in Supermarkets

Median Grocery Store Size

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

Square Feet

Page 11: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Questions

• Is congestion rising?• Are commutes getting longer?• Are people spending more time

commuting?• Are people spending more time traveling?• How do the declining trip times and

increasing speeds reconcile with the general perception of worsening congestion?

Page 12: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

More Questions

• What do travel and activity depend on?

• Is spatial determinism correct?• Does income matter?• Does location matter?• Does demographics matter?

Page 13: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Rational Locator Hypothesis

• Despite falling speeds and increasing distances, average travel time can remain constant.

• Individuals will adjust their home and work locations in order to maintain commuting durations in the face of rising congestion.

• Dispersion and decentralization are conscious choices that enable rational locators to achieve their goals.

Page 14: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Rational Allocator Hypothesis

• Changes in Time Allocation (1968 to 1988) due to rising female labor force participation.

• Can be understood in context of Bounded Rationality

• “Allocators” - shape temporal activity patterns within household, spending time and money to produce household goods, maximizing utility.

• Technology, rising per capita income, and labor force participation create substition of in-house activities by out-of-home activities. E.g. eating out, day care.

Page 15: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Activity Duration Calculation

Page 16: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

DC Time Use Data

Work outside

homeNon-workers

Activity Year Male Female Male Female

Home 1968 786 831 1120 1225

1988 799 826 1143 1165

1994 761 795 1093 1155

Work 1968 515 487 0 0

1988 472 447 0 0

1994 499 476 0 0

Work-related 1968 0 0 0 0

1988 0 0 0 0

1994 20 10 0 0

Shop 1968 7 10 27 52

1988 10 13 31 50

1994 8 13 33 47

Other 1968 44 29 217 101

1988 61 62 187 140

1994 47 47 220 154

Travel 1968 88 82 76 62

1988 99 92 80 85

1994 104 99 93 85

Page 17: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Twin Cities

Time Use Data

Workers Non-workers

Activity Year Male Female Male Female

Home 1990 777 816 1092 1176

2000 777 802 1044 1122

Work 1990 485 466 0 0

2000 494 476 0 0

Work-related 1990 29 11 83 14

2000 14 9 96 33

Shop 1990 7 15 21 41

2000 8 14 26 36

Other 1990 53 55 144 131

2000 56 56 168 161

Travel 1990 88 77 101 78

2000 90 84 106 87

Page 18: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

* Denotes Significance at 95% level

SEX_YEAR WORK STATUS TRAVEL CASESHOME WORK SHOP OTHER

Female1995 Non Worker 1172* 0 42* 166* 60 28121990 1220 0 35 127 58 10201995 Worker 944 313* 25* 93* 65 80141990 928 284 30 132 65 2535Male1995 Non Worker 1171* 0 30 177* 62 12401990 1222 0 29 130 59 3611995 Worker 900 365* 15* 90* 70 77161990 903 338 20 110 69 2275

TIME SPENT AT

Comparison of 1990 and 1995 NPTS

Page 19: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Change in Person Work Trip Volume (AM Peak

Period)DESTINATIO

N:CENTER CITY INNER SUBURBS OUTER SUBURBS TOTAL

ORIGIN ‘68 ‘88 ‘68 ‘88 ‘68 ‘88 ‘68 ‘88

CENTER CITY

235 252 7 32 31 -3 14 25 76 282 308 9

INNER SUBURBS

122 126 3 58 91 56 30 57 93 210 274 30

OUTER SUBURBS

86 192 124 41 106 160 74 342 365 200 641 220

TOTAL 443 569 28 131 229 74 118 425 261 692 1223 77

Page 20: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Change in Average Work Trip Time (AM Peak

Period)DESTINATION

CENTER CITY INNER SUBURBS OUTER SUBURBS REGIONAL AVERAGE

ORIGIN ‘68 ‘88 ‘68 ‘88 ‘68 ‘88 ‘68 ‘88

CENTER CITY

31.2 30.5 -2.2 36.3 28.9 -21.0 45.3 36.0 -20.5 32.3 30.5 -5.3

INNER SUBURBS

37.3 35.0 -6.2 20.4 22.8 11.8 27.0 32.3 19.6 31.1 30.4 -2.3

OUTER SUBURBS

45.2 47.7 5.5 29.4 38.3 30.3 20.6 25.6 24.3 33.0 34.3 3.9

Page 21: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Drive Alone Trip Distribution

Page 22: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Trip Distances and Speeds

• Increased for Work Trips by All Modes (6.5 to 7.8 (> 20%) miles Euclidean (multiply by 1.4 or so to get Network Distances))

• Distances increased slightly for nonwork trips (< 10% for home based, about 25% for other to other )

• Speeds up in general (~20% for work trips).

Page 23: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Resolving the Paradox

Suburban Arterial

Urban Radial

1968 Speed 55 MPH 25 MPH

1988 Speed 40 MPH 20 MPH

1968 Traffic 10% 90%

1988 Traffic 50% 50%

Page 24: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Weighted Averages

• While Speed drops on both facilities, Average Speed rises from 28 MPH to 30 MPH.

• More generally, speed can drop on every facility from the day it opens as traffic increases, but if people increasingly use higher speed facilities, that use will outweigh the speed drop.

• This may be of little comfort to the commuter whose work trip becomes worse every year until he relocates.

Page 25: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Trip Chaining

• As available time shrinks, trip chaining is a practical substitute.

• Rather than – home to work to home to other to

home.

• We see– home to work to other to home.

Page 26: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Trip Peaking: Work Trips

Page 27: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Trip Peaking: Nonwork Trips

Page 28: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Travel and Activity Patterns

1990 vs. 1995 NPTS• Time Spent at Home Decreased for Non

Workers and Female Workers• Time at Home in 1990 Substituted for

Work in 1995, especially for Female Workers

• Time Spent at Other Declined for Workers but Increased for Non-Workers

• Overall Travel Times have either remained Stable or Increased, but not significant

Page 29: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Travel Duration• Travel Duration = f( Activity Duration &

Frequency)• TDi = ß0 + ß1 * ADi + ß2 * AFi• Transport Planning Models Only Consider

Activity Frequency, not Duration• ADi positive & significant in 6 of 9

activity categories, negative & significant for 1 of 9 (home) [ Staying Home is Substitute for Travel ]

Page 30: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Correlations: Activity Complements or

Substitutes• Non-Travel Activities are Substitutes• Travel is Complementary to Like Activity

& Travel to Home; Substitutes for Other Activities.

Matrix TotalCells

Positive and Significant

Negative andSignificant

Activity-Activity 66 1 29

Activity-Travel 144 15 39

Travel-Travel 66 11 10

Page 31: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Conclusions• Activity Duration a key factor

explaining travel duration• Activities are substitutes• Travel is complement only to like

activity & return trip• Activity Duration is fairly constant

between groups, with large individual variations which are not easily predicted

Page 32: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Residential Density vs. Time Use

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0-99 100-249250-499500-749750-9991000-19992000-29993000-39994000-49995000-74997500-1000010000-4999950000

+

Residential Density (ppsm)

Time (home,

work)

02040

6080100120

140160

Time (shop, other, travel)

HOME WORK SHOP OTHER TRAVEL

Page 33: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

HOME WORK SHOP OTHER TRAVELCMSA Name 1990 Population Mean Std Dev t-stat Mean Std Dev t-stat Mean Std Dev t-stat Mean Std Dev t-stat Mean Std Dev t-stat Cases

Hartford, CT 1.1 998 249 0.90 243 266 -1.06 23 60 0.37 108 151 0.41 67 66 -0.44 301Providence, RI 1.1 1055 238 1.62 181 256 -1.68 20 38 -0.37 134 142 1.13 50 35 -2.90 30Buffalo, NY 1.2 1045 323 0.92 241 297 -0.30 20 31 -0.41 62 118 -1.77 72 114 0.13 24Portland, OR 1.5 1012 261 0.72 242 287 -0.44 17 50 -0.67 102 146 -0.12 67 54 -0.20 49Milwaukee, WI 1.6 975 253 -0.25 334 265 1.84 21 40 -0.15 56 107 -2.93 53 34 -2.99 43Cincinnati, OH 1.7 974 261 -0.31 265 297 0.14 34 80 1.24 99 131 -0.32 67 56 -0.30 67Denver, CO 1.8 973 266 -0.47 287 290 0.97 24 51 0.42 94 146 -0.76 63 43 -1.47 112Pittsburgh,PA 2.2 1054 239 2.67 203 257 -2.02 28 59 0.99 94 129 -0.74 60 44 -1.83 86Seattle, WA 2.6 965 261 -0.73 258 256 -0.07 18 56 -0.75 118 190 0.67 82 88 1.40 98Cleveland, OH 2.8 953 257 -1.16 254 271 -0.21 20 51 -0.39 120 156 0.93 93 141 1.64 91Miami, FL 3.2 1009 251 0.90 204 258 -2.03 33 72 1.48 131 146 1.72 63 49 -1.18 90Houston, TX 3.7 981 252 -0.16 243 265 -0.71 20 48 -0.52 132 169 1.87 64 47 -1.28 134Dallas, TX 3.9 1001 263 0.71 264 276 0.19 20 41 -0.63 91 123 -1.24 64 63 -0.88 130Boston, MA 4.2 966 255 -0.78 271 276 0.41 11 23 -4.74 115 154 0.70 78 67 1.37 113Detroit, MI 4.7 960 254 -1.18 281 271 0.96 21 59 -0.16 112 150 0.57 66 49 -0.73 156Philadelphia, PA 5.9 988 260 0.16 260 264 0.02 25 59 0.60 98 142 -0.69 70 63 0.24 198San Francisco, CA 6.3 1026 271 2.17 214 257 -2.49 19 41 -0.92 112 165 0.61 68 69 -0.11 210Chicago, IL 8.1 993 269 0.52 263 271 0.18 25 67 0.71 96 155 -0.95 64 58 -1.49 299Los Angeles, CA 14.5 962 255 -1.84 279 276 1.47 22 58 0.09 110 156 0.75 66 57 -1.01 501New York, NY 18.1 979 256 -0.61 267 273 0.80 21 53 -0.43 100 157 -0.92 72 67 1.55 1237

985 258 260 272 22 55 105 154 69 66 3969

Page 34: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Census Division vs. Activity Duration

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

New England Middle Atlantic East NorthCentral

West NorthCentral

South Atlantic East SouthCentral

West SouthCentral

Mountain Pacific

Census Division

Proportion of Day at Activity

HOME WORK OTHER TRAVEL SHOP

Page 35: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Home by Income Level

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Less Than$5,000$5,000-$9,999$10,000-$14,999$15,000-$19,999$20,000-$24,999$25,000-$29,999$30,000-$34,999$35,000-$39,999$40,000-$44,999$45,000-$49,999$50,000-$54,999$55,000-$59,999$60,000-$64,999$65,000-$69,999$70,000-$79,999$75,000-$79,999$80,000

+

Income Level

Time (in minutes)

Female, Non-Worker Female, Worker Male, Non-Worker Male, Worker

Page 36: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Work by Income Level

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Less Than$5,000$5,000-$9,999$10,000-$14,999$15,000-$19,999$20,000-$24,999$25,000-$29,999$30,000-$34,999$35,000-$39,999$40,000-$44,999$45,000-$49,999$50,000-$54,999$55,000-$59,999$60,000-$64,999$65,000-$69,999$70,000-$79,999$75,000-$79,999$80,000

+

Income Level

Time (in minutes)

Female, Worker Male, Worker

Page 37: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Shop by Income Level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Less Than$5,000$5,000-$9,999$10,000-$14,999$15,000-$19,999$20,000-$24,999$25,000-$29,999$30,000-$34,999$35,000-$39,999$40,000-$44,999$45,000-$49,999$50,000-$54,999$55,000-$59,999$60,000-$64,999$65,000-$69,999$70,000-$79,999$75,000-$79,999$80,000

+

Income Level

Time (in minutes)

Female, Non-Worker Female, Worker Male, Non-Worker Male, Worker

Page 38: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Other by Income Level

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Less Than$5,000$5,000-$9,999$10,000-$14,999$15,000-$19,999$20,000-$24,999$25,000-$29,999$30,000-$34,999$35,000-$39,999$40,000-$44,999$45,000-$49,999$50,000-$54,999$55,000-$59,999$60,000-$64,999$65,000-$69,999$70,000-$79,999$75,000-$79,999$80,000

+

Income Level

Time (in minutes)

Female, Non-Worker Female, Worker Male, Non-Worker Male, Worker

Page 39: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time in Travel by Income Level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Less Than$5,000$5,000-$9,999$10,000-$14,999$15,000-$19,999$20,000-$24,999$25,000-$29,999$30,000-$34,999$35,000-$39,999$40,000-$44,999$45,000-$49,999$50,000-$54,999$55,000-$59,999$60,000-$64,999$65,000-$69,999$70,000-$79,999$75,000-$79,999$80,000

+

Income Level

Time (in Minutes)

Female, Non-Worker Female, Worker Male, Non-Worker Male, Worker

Page 40: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Activities by Income

10

210

410

610

810

1010

5000 99991499919999249992999934999399994499949999549995999964999699997499979999

+

Household Income ($US1990)

Duration (minutes)

Home, Work

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Duration (minutes) Shop, Other, Travel

Home Work Shop Other Travel

Page 41: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Work by Age

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

18-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65

Age

Time (in Minutes)

Male,Worker Female,Worker

Page 42: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Shop by Age

0

10

20

30

40

50

18-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65

Age

Time (in Minutes)

Male, NonWorker Female,NonWorker Male,Worker Female,Worker

Page 43: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Other by Age

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

18-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65

Age

Time (in Minutes)

Male, NonWorker Female,NonWorker Male,Worker Female,Worker

Page 44: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Travel by Age

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

18-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65

Age

Time (in Minutes)

Male, NonWorker Female,NonWorker Male,Worker Female,Worker

Page 45: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Time at Home by Age

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

18-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65

Age

Time (in Minutes)

Male, NonWorker Female,NonWorker Male,Worker Female,Worker

Page 46: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

LifeCycle & Time at HomeTable 3: Life Cycle Stage,Gender, and Activity Duration

TIMEHOMEDifference Difference

Number of Youngest Gender Mean Std Dev of Means of MeansAdults Child Total M-F

1 None Male 933 270 -3.40 -1.881 None Female 971 250 -0.932+ None Male 943 261 -5.64 -4.092+ None Female 982 249 -0.331 0-5 Male 1154 305 1.36 0.891 0-5 Female 1040 247 1.982+ 0-5 Male 932 249 -5.97 -12.882+ 0-5 Female 1084 242 11.241 6-15 Male 1045 298 1.07 1.251 6-15 Female 968 248 -0.692+ 6-15 Male 937 260 -4.71 -6.762+ 6-15 Female 1026 240 4.431 16-21 Male 910 282 -1.05 -1.111 16-21 Female 997 225 0.382+ 16-21 Male 956 258 -2.11 -1.992+ 16-21 Female 993 248 0.651 retired Male 1196 214 3.55 0.361 retired Female 1162 241 2.452+ retired Male 1105 246 6.81 -0.432+ retired Female 1115 232 8.40

TOTAL 984 257

Page 47: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

LifeCycle & Time at Work

Page 48: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

LifeCycle & Time at Shop

Page 49: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

LifeCycle & Time at Other

Page 50: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

LifeCycle & Time at Travel

Page 51: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Choice Model

• Logit model to predict share of time between 4 activities (incl. travel to act.) for individuals who undertook all four

• Greatest part of explanatory power is in Activity Specific Constant.

• 2nd most sig = activity frequency

Page 52: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson
Page 53: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

TABLE 1: Models to Predict Travel Duration by Activity Duration and Number

ActivityVisit Other

Home Work Shopping Personal School Doctor Friends Social TOTAL & Related Business Church Dentist Relatives Recreation OTHER

Activity DurationMean 984 492 65.6 89.5 204 85.1 178 150 193

Std. Dev. 257 158 82.7 118.1 161 75.3 147.9 137 168

Travel DurationMean 28.8 24.1 14.7 24.1 17.8 19.1 23.2 23.6 30.2

Std. Dev. 40.1 24.5 17 30.1 14.3 11.9 24.5 28.3 32.7

StopsMean 1.41 1.13 1.27 1.65 1.16 1.07 1.25 1.29 1.84

Std. Dev. 0.69 0.47 0.64 1.08 0.46 0.26 0.6 0.63 1.29

CoefficientsNumber of Stops 7.89 16.90 10.82 11.24 8.63 20.77 14.46 16.40 12.23(t - stat) 12.40 22.93 22.91 20.61 8.57 6.23 13.41 16.36 32.41

Activity Duration -0.024 0.000 0.031 0.028 0.020 0.005 0.027 0.043 0.028(t - stat) -13.623 -0.098 8.334 5.660 7.057 0.415 6.095 9.172 9.668

Constant 41.22 5.18 -0.84 3.22 3.72 -3.51 0.52 -3.78 3.65(t - stat) 20.36 3.61 -1.28 3.07 2.83 -1.00 0.33 -2.76 4.18

N 8038 4287 2589 2260 850 165 1201 1750 4768Adj. R-Square 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.20 0.14 0.20 0.17 0.23 0.24Std. Error 39.42 23.17 15.05 26.89 13.25 10.62 22.41 24.91 31.87F-Stat 181.20 262.91 376.70 291.09 72.56 22.24 123.41 262.42 740.80Sig. F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00note: mean activity duration, travel duration, and number of stops is only for those making trips (number of stops > 1), as are associated regressions

Page 54: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Activity Duration

• Space (density, metro area, region)

• Money (income, work-status, gender)

• Life-Cycle (age, gender, household size, # adults, age of oldest child)

Page 55: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Work Outside Home Work at Home Nonworkers All Persons

M F M F M F M F Total Household

HOME 1968 1.38 1.29 1.46 1.47 1.24 1.33 1.39 1.37 1.38 2.85

1988 1.33 1.34 1.50 1.57 1.60 1.57 1.36 1.42 1.39 2.75

WORK 1968 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.51 0.68 1.15

1988 1.31 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 0.55 0.99 1.57

SHOP 1968 0.19 0.21 0.50 0.87 0.36 0.63 0.24 0.52 0.38 0.78

1988 0.22 0.31 0.59 0.88 0.75 0.89 0.29 0.49 0.39 0.78

OTHER 1968 0.48 0.39 1.30 0.88 1.23 1.08 0.65 0.71 0.69 1.65

1988 0.86 1.00 1.76 1.69 1.78 1.91 1.00 1.25 1.12 2.35

TOTAL 1968 3.05 2.89 3.19 3.42 2.90 2.84 3.11 3.11 3.13 6.42

1988 3.72 3.86 3.87 4.36 4.11 4.15 3.79 3.71 3.89 7.45

Mean Activity Frequencies

Page 56: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Work Outside Home Work at Home Nonworkers All Persons

M F M F M F M F Total Household

HOME 1968 820 865 1178 1245 1132 1225 886 1033 961 2114

1988 799 823 1163 1205 1104 1132 844 924 885 1808

WORK 1968 486 459 0 0 0 0 396 243 321 538

1988 466 441 0 0 0 0 400 311 354 563

SHOP 1968 7 10 19 45 24 50 10 30 19 39

1988 10 15 43 48 34 55 14 26 20 41

OTHER 1968 43 28 172 95 210 98 72 63 66 162

1988 64 67 166 126 216 170 82 90 86 202

TOTAL 1968 85 79 70 55 75 67 76 72 72 146

1988 101 93 67 62 86 83 100 89 95 173

Mean Activity Durations

Page 57: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Home

• Time spent at Home dropped for workers and nonworkers, men and women.

• Why?• Mobility, substitution of out-of-

home activities.

Page 58: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Work

• Marked trend in increase time at work.

• Female labor force participation increases

• However, for workers, time at work decreased. Contrast with “Overworked American” argument.

Page 59: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Shop

• With rising income, people should shop more, right?

• However, time available for shopping drops as more women worked.

• So while both workers and non-workers shop more, the overall time spent shopping is steady (increased for men, decreased for women).

• Once again, Weighted Averages help explain our paradox.

Page 60: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Other

• Other: Pickup Drop Off, School, Unspecified other activies (doctor, bank, church, recreation, eating out, etc.)

• Men did more other than women in 1968, less in 1988.

• Overall, there is more time at other activities. Non-work is rising. Nonworkers (as expected) do more nonwork than workers.

Page 61: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Travel

• Time spent traveling has increased sharply.

• Commuting time has held steady.• Thus non-commuting (nonwork) travel

is the source of most rise in travel demand.

• There is no overall travel budget in DC. This is in contrast with other findings for other areas (e.g. Twin Cities, see Barnes and Davis)

Page 62: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

References

• Levinson, David and Ajay Kumar (1994). "The Rational Locator: Why Travel Times Have Remained Stable." Journal of the American Planning Association, Summer 1994 60:3 319-332. http://www.ce.umn.edu/~levinson/papers-pdf/doc-locator.pdf

• Levinson, David and Ajay Kumar (1995). "Activity, Travel, and the Allocation of Time." Journal of the American Planning Association. 61:4 458-470. http://www.ce.umn.edu/~levinson/papers-pdf/doc-activity.pdf

• + Levinson, David. 1999. "Space, Money, Life-cycle, and the Allocation of Time." Transportation 26:2: 141-171. http://www.ce.umn.edu/papers-pdf/LifeCycle.pdf

Page 63: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

NPTS Data

• 1990/91 and 1995/96 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey

• 1990 and 1995 Federal Highway Administration Highway Statistics

• Individuals whose total activities did not add to 1440 minutes (24 hrs), excluded

• This study looks only at adults, 18-65 years of age

• Excluded travelers with a daily shopping time greater than 420 minutes

• 1990 Survey 21800 Households, 47000 individuals, 150000 Trips

Page 64: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

MWCOG Data

• 1968 and 1987/88 Household Travel Surveys• 1968: 20,000 Households Making 135,000 Trips• 1987/88: 8,000 Households Making 55,000 Trips• For Consistency, Analysis limited to 3 rings

(though 1987 survey examined a somewhat larger area).

• Key Activities: Home, Work, Other• Key Modes: Drive Alone, Carpool (2, 3+), Walk to

Transit, (Park and Ride, Kiss and Ride in 1988),

Page 65: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Mean Travel Time by Mode and Purpose

  Work Trips

Home-Based Nonwork

Work-Based Nonwork

Other-Based Other

Drive Alone 1968 30.4 18.5 25.9 17.9

Drive Alone 1988 30.7 19.3 26.2 17.8

Carpool 2 1968 34.4 17.6 26.8 17.1

Carpool 2 1988 31.8 18.4 29.7 17.0

Carpool 3+ 1968 44.0 17.9 33.7 15.1

Carpool 3+ 1988 41.0 15.9 31.8 18.2

Walk to Transit 1968 47.9 41.2 37.7 33.5

Walk to Transit 1988 41.7 36.2 30.8 34.6

Park and Ride 1988 54.3

Kiss and Ride 1988 53.4

Walk 1988 20.1 13.8 15.7 18.6

All Modes 1968 34.5 19.2 27.5 17.6

All Modes 1988 34.2 19.6 27.7 18.5

Page 66: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Myths

1. The long commute is commonplace2. Jobs Housing Balance doesn’t

matter3. ‘Sprawl’ makes congestion worse4. Travel times are rising5. Transit investment will lower travel

times6. Most travel is work trips

Page 67: Understanding Activity Patterns and Trends David Levinson

Commuting and Non-Commuting

• Rational Locator hypothesis suggests something like a loose commuting time budget.

• Clearly there is a total time budget (24 hours in a day).

• Is there an overall travel time budget?

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1988 Distribution by Mode