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C H I S H O L M

ARE MURDOCH AND ROTHERMERE

BETTER OFF UNDER LABOUR?

An analysis of politics and the fortunes of the UK national press

© C H I S H O L M, April 2010



An analysis of politics and the fortunes of the UK national pressFor publication.

© C H I S H O L M, April 2010. 2

ARE MURDOCH AND ROTHERMERE BETTER OFF UNDER LABOUR?

What’s more important? Political conviction? Business? Or Influence? Do people own

newspapers, and other media for that matter, for business reasons or reasons of influence?

As we now hurtle toward a general election the facts are more interesting than the

perceptions. Prejudice is against. Democracy is for. So how should we advise Mr Murdoch

and Lord Rothermere to vote in the coming election? The historical facts would suggest more

with their heads than their hearts.

It’s a fact that most British newspapers do better in opposition to their own political instincts.

This has to be a good thing for democracy, and free speech, but hey…. It’s not necessarily

good for business.

Take The Times, the once bastion of the establishment. More than any other newspaper it

needs Labour more than the Conservatives. Its circulation share has performed significantly

better under Labour, than when the Tories were in power. Since it was acquired by Murdoch

in 19811, every year of Tory power has cost them 6% of their circulation share relative to

when Labour was in power 2. (Price warring and a heavily promoted shift to tabloid accepted.)

Now that The Tories may be returning, is its hard won share slipping?

The Daily Mail has rightly developed a great reputation as a commercial success since the late

Lord Rothermere brought the paper back from the brink in 1969, to become a commercial

phenomenon. But the reality is that it owes much of its success to Labour. Most periods when

the Tories were in power rather than Labour have cost the Mail market share, against a

consistent gain when Labour have been in power. Over the period of a government, that’s a

lot of sales. In translation the Mail has gained around a million copies in share equivalent

under Labour, and lost around half a million copies under the Tories).

Over the last 40 odd years, The Daily Telegraph’s picture is shrouded in lost opportunity.

During the sixties and seventies it is true that the paper followed the model of contrary

performance, and certainly its circulation plummeted during the Thatcher years. For other

reasons it showed little sign of recovery when Labour came to power. It was revitalised under

its new owners and a refreshing strategy, but now, as the Tories may return to power, its share

is beginning to decline again.

Rupert Murdoch’s Sun has always run an opportunist editorial strategy, supporting whichever

party was most likely to be in power. While its greatest period of growth was during the price

wars of the mid ’90’s, its period of fastest decline was during the time when it supported

Labour around the 1997 election. During the late ’90’s and early 2000’s circulation share was

relatively stagnant. However in recent years The Sun’s circulation share has again been

steadily rising.

1For the purpose of modelling the analysis estimates the average the circulation of The Times between the period of its closure

due to a strike and its recommencement of publishing.2

That is 6% of its share of 8%. Not 6% of the total market.





Meanwhile the left leaning Guardian has enjoyed a serendipitous relationship with the

political system, overlaid against a strong circulation performance over the years. But one

only needs to look from the ’60’s to the late ’80’s to see that its circulation fortunes ran

contrary to those of the country’s political sentiments.

It has historically benefited from a conservative government – look at how badly it formed

during the end of the Callaghan government, and how well it performed during the Thatcher

era - but as the graph below shows, since the last election The Guardian’s share has improved.

Is this a reflection of the general trend, or that the newspaper has been an opposition in

residence?

In the case of the Mirror, the issue has to be seen in the context of its less successful

circulation performance over time. But even here, the inverse influence of politics is

instructive. For whatever reason the newspaper has suffered a decline in market share back to

the sixties. But its rate of decline under Labour has been double that when the Conservatives

have been in power. Could it now enjoy a revival under a change in government?

Meanwhile the other titles show little pro or contrary influence of the party in power. In the

case of The Express this may reflect its range of owners and allegiances. The Stars’ new

found success is certainly not down to its political persuasion. And in the case of The

Independent? Maybe it is.

Finally, can circulation be used as a barometer of likely shifts in voting behaviour? Well a

careful look at trends immediately leading up to and following general elections suggests that

newspapers’ circulation trends regularly reverse. Take a look at the following graphs and

decide for yourself. This may simply reflect the amount press barons will spend on promotion

to get their result, whether it’s business or influence. Ultimately commerce wins over

conviction, every time.

Each of the following charts shows the variance in sale versus political control (e.g. % votes

in the General Election). The sharp lines show the specific variances in every period. The

curved charts show the “line of best fit” over time. Political share (measured as Tory

advantage or disadvantage is in black. Newspaper circulation share is coloured. Judge for

yourself what they say.

© Jim CHISHOLM.

April 2010.

For more information or clarification

Email: [email protected]

Phone: +447775817797

Skype: jpchisholm





1 THE TIMES

2 DAILY TELEGRAPH





3 THE GUARDIAN

4 DAILY MAIL





5 THE SUN

6 THE MIRROR





7 THE INDEPENDENT

8 THE EXPRESS





9 DAILY STAR

10 ALL TITLES SUMMARY





APPENDICES:

Technical notes:

The analysis involved the following steps.

1. A table of ABC six month data back to 1963. Many titles didn’t register with ABC

until the sixties. The analysis includes titles such as The Independent or Today, that

either launched or closed during the period. It does not include the Financial Times or

Scottish Daily Record.

2. A table of general election results from 1964, which includes a measure of the

difference in Labour and Conservative shares of the vote.

3. The analysis is based on circulation share trends, rather than circulation actuals, in

order to track competitive performance relative to the total market which has grown

and shrunk considerably during the period of analysis.

4. A measurement of shift in political power – measured by shift in voting between

Conservatives and Labour, at each election outcome. The change in voting share is

taken in the six-month period of change, and not weighted to the point of the change.

5. A correlation between the shift in circulation market share during the period of the

election with that of shift in political control.

6. It takes no account of changing pricing or bulks policies, or subscription policies, all

of which have had some effect on circulation.

© Jim CHISHOLM.

April 2010.

For more information or clarification

Email: [email protected]

Phone: +447775817797

Skype: jpchisholm

uk political analysis 100409 v5.1 jpc

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