trends in kenyan agricultural productivity: 1997-2007 betty kibaara, joshua ariga, thomas jayne and...
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Trends in Kenyan Agricultural Productivity: 1997-2007
Betty Kibaara, Joshua Ariga, Thomas Jayne and John Olwande
Conference on:Agricultural Productivity, Competitiveness and Rural Poverty in Kenya:
Laying the Foundation for Vision 2030
17-18 September, 2008
Presentation Outline Background
Objectives of the Study
Data and methods
Trends in land ownership and cultivated land
Contribution of crop income
Trends in productivity
Factors contributing to productivity growth, decline or stagnation
Policy implications
Background
Agricultural productivity levels in SSA below that of other regions in the World
Since 2000, productivity growth in SSA impressive
In the past, agricultural production largely a function of acreage, further growth will have to be driven by productivity growth
Local and Regional strategies Strategy for Revitalizing Agriculture (SRA) Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program
(CAADP) Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) Kenya Vision 2030
Objectives To examine trends in the Kenyan agricultural
productivity Cereal (maize) Industrial crops( tea, coffee and sugarcane) Horticultural crops ( Irish potatoes and cabbages) Dairy
Explore factors driving or hindering productivity growth
Draw implications for policy and suggest actions needed for sustainable productivity growth
Contribution (%) of Crop Income to the overall Annual Household Income
Zone 1997 2000 2004 2007
Coastal Lowlands 2 4 2.4 4.2
Eastern Lowlands 2.3 3.7 3.6 4.7
Western Lowlands 3 2.6 2.6 5.6
Western Transitional 5.3 7.5 8.8 10.7
High Potential Maize Zone 11.5 10.4 13.8 13.3
Western Highlands 5.6 11.9 6.6 8.8
Central Highlands 7 15.2 9.2 10.3
Marginal Rain Shadow 2.1 0.9 4.2 4.6
Overall Sample 6.6 8.8 8.2 9.3
40
21
13
27
50
15 17 18
46
16 17
27
44
1621
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Crop Livestock Business Salaries &remittance
Source of Income
Perc
ent
1997
2000
2004
2007
Trends in Owned and Cultivated Land
6% decline in mean per household owned land (from a 6.1 in 1997 acres to 5.8 acres in 2007)
Cultivated land declined slightly from 3.5 acres in 1997 to 3.4 acres per household in 2007
Commodity 1997 2000 2004 2007
Mean Cultivated acres/HH that produced the commodity
Maize 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.9
Tea 1.08 1.04 1.01 1.05
Sugarcane 2.18 2.18 2.03 2.5
Coffee 0.56 0.55 0.49 0.48
Cabbages 0.38 0.24 0.21 0.21
Potatoes 0.58 0.59 0.48 0.44
Mean Maize Productivity Zone 1997 2000 2004 2007
90 kg - bags/acre
Coastal Lowlands 2 4 2.4 4.2
Eastern Lowlands 2.3 3.7 3.6 4.7
Western Lowlands 3 2.6 2.6 5.6
Western Transitional 5.3 7.5 8.8 10.7
High Potential Maize Zone 11.5 10.4 13.8 13.3
Western Highlands 5.6 11.9 6.6 8.8
Central Highlands 7 8.8 9.2 10.3
Marginal Rain Shadow 2.1 0.9 4.2 4.6
Overall Sample 6.6 7.2 8.2 9.3
40% growth
Maize Productivity- Pure stand Vs Intercrop
Year Overall Pure stand Intercrop
(90 –kg bags/acre)
1997 6.6 9.8 6.1
2000 8.8 9.6 8.8
2004 8.2 10.4 8.1
2007 9.3 11.2 9.1
78% of Total maize area is intercropped
Drivers of Maize Productivity Growth
1997 2000 2004 2007
Fertilizer adoption (% of hhs) 57 63 67 71
Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) 56 55 60 59
Increased use of organic fertilizer 44 47 50
% of hhs adopting High yielding maize varieties 70 69 69 74
% of hhs using fertilizer plus hybrid maize seed 51 55 57 61
Distance to fertilizer seller 8.1 5.7 4.1 3.4
Distance to seller of hybrid maize N/A 5.6 3.9 3.4
Number of maize seed varieties planted
Western Transitional 17 27
High Potential Maize Zone 23 32
Western Highlands 9 18
Tea Productivity(Kgs of green leaf per acre/year)
Zone District 1997 2000 2004 2007
High Potential Maize Zone Bomet 4,017 3,765 3,878 3,704
Western Highlands Kisii 2,142 3,154 3,358 4,278
Vihiga 897 1,624 2,642 4,549
Central Highlands Meru 4,364 4,444 5,510 5,147
Murang’a 4,722 4,461 4,215 4,674
Nyeri 4,653 4,295 4,514 4,706
Overall Kg/acre 3,931 3,869 4,206 4,507
Overall kg/tea bush 1.12 1.11 1.21 1.29
15% growth
Drivers of Tea Productivity Growth
Increasing fertilizer adoption (% of hhs) 84% to 98%
Increasing fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) Western highlands (Vihiga & Kisii)
Coffee Productivity(Cherries in kg/acre)
Zone 1997 2000 2004 2007
Eastern Lowlands 790 326 134 432
Western Lowlands 279 429 569 321
Western Transitional 800 262 176 41
High Potential Maize Zone 551 539 352 357
Western Highlands 986 1,285 1,849 993
Central Highlands 1,933 2,616 1,810 1,639
Overall Sample 1,459 1,826 1,577 1,285
30% decline since 2000
Factors affecting Coffee productivity
1997 2000 2004 2007
Fertilizer adoption (% hhs) 44 51 45 37
Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) 183 364 256 147
No. of hhs producing coffee 257 308 283 250
•Management problems•Declining international prices
Sugarcane Productivity(tonnes/acre)
Zone District 1997 2000 2004 2007
Western Lowlands Kisumu 18.1 15.9 15.7 21.4
Western Transitional Bungoma 37.4 31.6 34.7 27.4
Kakamega 20.4 26.7 26.1 23.4
Overall Sample 22.3 26.1 26.7 23.9
8.4% productivity decline since 2000
Factors contributing to decline in Sugarcane productivity
1997 2000 2004 2007
Fertilizer adoption (% hhs) 29 51 49 69
Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) 118 197 141 110
No. hhs producing s/cane 161 154 158 145
•Poor cane varieties•Low sucrose level & high fibre content•Take long to mature
Cabbage Productivity (Kg/acre)
Zone YearMean productivity
(kg/acre)% of hhs using
fertilizer
No. of hhs producing cabbages
Area under production (acres/hh)
High Potential Maize Zone 1997 8,948 64 31 0.34
2000 7,188 51 112 0.20
2004 3,304 50 81 0.18
2007 5,338 47 45 0.17
Central Highlands 1997 6,783 68 65 0.38
2000 11,829 83 91 0.29
2004 13,187 78 79 0.18
2007 11,101 80 93 0.17
Overall Sample 1997 7,464 66 96 0.37
2000 9,269 67 203 0.24
2004 8,184 64 160 0.18
2007 9,222 63 138 0.17
23% Cabbage Productivity Growth, but fluctuating
Irish Potato Productivity (Kg/acre)
Zone YearMean productivity
(kg/acre)
% of hhs using
fertilizer
No. of hhs producing potatoes
Area under production (acres/hh)
High Potential Maize Zone 1997 2,526 45 85 0.58
2000 4,291 49 190 0.68
2004 2,651 48 182 0.48
2007 3,013 42 140 0.54
Central Highlands 1997 2,398 79 179 0.49
2000 5,169 87 212 0.51
2004 2,860 83 219 0.43
2007 2,810 85 219 0.34
Overall Sample 1997 2,440 62 264 0.52
2000 4,752 68 402 0.59
2004 2,765 66 401 0.45
2007 2,889 63 359 0.42
18% Cabbage Productivity Growth, but fluctuating trends
Annual Milk productivity (liters/cow/year)
Zone 1997 2000 2004 2007
Coastal Lowlands 139 418 207 701
Eastern Lowlands 688 856 785 890
Western Lowlands 327 360 367 367
Western Transitional 677 662 812 1,022
High Potential Maize Zone 1,269 973 1,313 1,692
Western Highlands 902 1,005 1,071 836
Central Highlands 1,856 1,969 2,243 1,991
Marginal Rain Shadow 1,015 632 1,488 1,434
Overall Sample 1,164 1,079 1,298 1,371
18% productivity growth
Drivers of Milk Productivity Growth
Partial Factors 1997 2000 2004 2007
Households growing fodder (%) 16 37 46 53
Proportion of cultivated land allocated to fodder (%) 3 6 7 12
HHs with improved cows (%) 62 65 70 66
Nominal prices of milk in Ksh/lt
14 18 18 19
Constant prices of milk (GDP deflator)
25 26 22 19
Other cross cutting services
1997 2000 2004 2007
Distance to Motorable roads 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.5
Distances to Tarmac roads 8.2 7.7 7.6 7.6
Distance to crops extension service(private and public) 5.4 5.5 5.2 4.6
Distance to veterinary service 4.8 4 4.3 4
% received agricultural credit 25.7 29.6 25.5 32.8
Sources of Agricultural Credit
Sources of Agricultural credit 1997 2000 2004 2007
Commodity Based credit providers
13.5 55.8 62.2 48.7(KTDA, sugar company etc)
Informal money lenders 16.5 10.6 8.6 19.8
Traders/Input stockists 10.4 6.2 3.7 10.5
Cooperatives/SACCOs 55.8 25.9 21.9 10.3
Agricultural Finance Corporation 3 0.5 1.7 5.2
MFI/NGO - 0.5 0.6 3.1
Commercial banks 0.8 0.5 1.2 2.5
Benchmarking Kenya’s Agricultural Productivity Commodity Tegemeo Panel Benchmarking countries
( FAO)
Maize (bags/acre)9
SA- 13 bags/acreArgentina-31 bags/acre
Tea (kg/acre)4,507
Malawi – 3,523India – 2,774
Uganda- 2,601
Coffee ( processed) (kg/acre)214
Brazil- 345Colombia – 436Uganda - 213
Sugarcane (tonnes/acre)28 – 25
Egypt – 40 Malawi – 43Sudan - 42
Dairy (litres/cow per year)
1,371
Argentina – 4,773South Africa – 3,093
Malawi- 461Uganda 331
Summary of the Productivity Trends
Increased ProductivityMaizeTea
Dairy
Declined ProductivityCoffee
Sugarcane
Fluctuating ProductivityHorticulture (cabbages
Irish potatoes)
Key drivers of productivity growth
Infrastructure improvements Increased fertilizer use Technology generation and adoption
Improved seed varieties Uptake of improved dairy cows
Role of markets
Policy Implications Sustainability of high fertilizer adoption against rising global fertilizer prices requires innovative financing through Private Public
Partnership.
Transaction costs of inputs could be reduced through investment in ‘public goods’ such as physical infrastructure.
Emerging role of input dealers in input delivery system. Up scaling the agro dealer training program could further improve access to inputs
Given the declining land sizes within the smallholder farming sectors of in Kenya, land allocation and land settlement will need to be on the policy agenda.
Introduction of early maturity and high yielding sugarcane varieties would increase efficiency and raise rural household incomes
Irish potatoes are a good substitute and especially with the current rise in maize prices. However, there is no certified potato seed growers in the country. Provision of clean seed could be jointly undertaken by the private sector , development and the government