Transportation Vulnerability and

Risk Assessment Pilot

American Planning Association Monday, April 16, 2012

Photo: Ingrid Taylor

Goal

The goal of Adapting to Rising Tides is to increase preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise and other climate change impacts while protecting ecosystem and community assets, such as transportation.

Partnerships

Project Management Team

Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Bay Conservation and Development Commission, and Caltrans

Consultant Team

AECOM, Arcadis, Geografika, 3D Visions

Federal Highway Administration

Local Partnership

Cities of Emeryville, Alameda, Oakland, San Leandro, Hayward, & Union City, and County of Alameda

BART, Capital Corridor, AC Transit

U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California Coastal Conservancy, East Bay Dischargers Authority, East Bay Municipal Utility District, East Bay Regional Park District, Hayward Area Rec. and Park, Port of Oakland, Association of Bay Area Governments, Alameda County Transportation Commission

Alameda

County Sub-Region

Study Area

Bay Area Refinements to Pilot Model

1. Data Asset Inventory & Asset Screening and Prioritization

2. Climate and Shoreline Information

3. Vulnerability Assessment 1. =Exposure +

Sensitivity + Adaptive Capacity

4. Risk Assessment

1. = Likelihood + Consequence

5. Adaptation Strategies

1a. Transportation Asset Inventory

Interstates/Freeways

Arterial, collector and local streets

Road tunnels/tubes

Bay bridges

Alameda bridges

BART stations

BART alignments

Amtrak stations

Passenger/freight rail alignments

Ferry terminals

Transportation Management Centers

Bus Maintenance Facilities

BART System Assets

Passenger and Freight Yards and Depots

Pedestrian/ Bicycle Facilities

Transit associated with all road assets

1b. Asset Selection Physical Characteristics

built at-grade, below grade, or elevated on embankments or structures;

Functional Characteristics lifeline routes, evacuation routes, goods movement routes, transit routes, and bike routes;

Jurisdiction agency, city or other entity with ownership and/or management responsibility for the asset;

Social/Economic Functions connecting to jobs, regional importance, and support of transit-dependent populations.

2. Climate Science & Shoreline Assets

Developed simple, yet

distinct, shoreline categories based on primary function and potential to protect against inland inundation

Using shoreline categories in combination with new inundation maps to understand transportation vulnerability and risk

Shoreline Categories: North

Shoreline Categories: South

New Sea Level Rise Maps for Six (6) Climate Scenarios

• Two sea level rise projections

• 16” (40 cm) of sea level rise ≈ mid-century

• 55” (140 cm) of sea level rise ≈ end-century

• Three water level conditions

• High tide (mean high high water, MHHW)

• Extreme high tide (100-year stillwater level)

• Extreme high tide + locally generated wind waves

16” SLR + 100-Year Stillwater Level

55” SLR + 100-Year Stillwater Level

3. Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability: “is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.” (IPCC definition 2007)

Vulnerability = exposure + sensitivity + adaptive capacity

= inundation to Sea Level Rise + condition of asset + ability to reroute if inundated

Exposure to SLR Measured by depth of inundation at midcentury and end of century

Asset Sensitivity

Exposure+Sensitivity+Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability

• Level of use - Average Daily Traffic (ADT) volume (cars / trucks) etc

•Age

• Seismically retrofitted

•Maintenance (Ongoing Operations and Maintenance [O&M]) Cost

• Foundation condition

• Liquefaction susceptibility

Adaptive Capacity

Our definition: the ability for rerouting to maintain all or part of the original functionality

Adaptive capacity: “is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or cope with the consequences.” (IPCC definition)

Photo: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/6237100.stm

Exposure+Sensitivity+Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability

Risk is the threat posed by an impact or hazard. It depends on the likelihood of an impact and the magnitude of the consequence.

If so, what are expected consequences in terms of cost and time to replace asset, economic impact, socio-economic impact, public safety and degree of redundancy in the system?

What is the likelihood of the asset being impacted by sea level rise?

4. Risk Assessment

Likelihood + Consequence = Risk

Likelihood + Consequence = Risk

Likelihood and Consequence

Likelihood: What is the likelihood that the asset will be impacted by SLR? Mid century SLR scenario = ‘highly likely’

End of Century SLR scenario = ‘likely’

Consequence: what is the expected impact or consequence to society if the asset is inundated? Criteria selected: Cost of and time to replace asset

Economic impact (goods movement, commuter route)

Socio-economic impact (transit dependent communities, MTC Communities of Concern)

Public safety (lifeline, mass evacuation route)

Degree of redundancy in the system (ability to reroute)

Asset Risk Profile

• Asset Characteristics

• Vulnerability Rating

• Exposure

• Sensitivity

• Adaptive Capacity

• Risk Rating

• Likelihood

• Consequence

5. Adaptation Strategies

Explore potential range of near-term and long-term adaptation strategies Structural Adaptation Measures

Nonstructural Adaptation Measures

Asset-Specific Adaptation Measures

Regional Adaptation Measures

Evaluated risk profiles to identify appropriate adaptation measure for each asset – highest risk assets are to be addressed first

Next Steps: more detailed adaptation planning needed

Results Most assets in the study area will not be affected by sea

level rise between now and the end of the century

Some assets in the study area are vulnerable and at risk to the effects of sea level rise including such important assets as:

The eastern approach to the Oakland-San Francisco Bay Bridge

BART’s Transbay Tube

Webster and Posey Tubes

Key points along the shoreline are low and will lead to large areas of inundation

There are many things we can do to prepare for and protect our region from sea level rise

Next Steps

Reproduce the study for all communities along the San Francisco Bay

Use the results in MTC’s Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy EIR to assess the impacts of sea level rise on proposed transportation projects and development patterns

Complete a similar assessment in the region for other community assets

Begin the conversation of adaptation planning with residents, cities, and counties

Call to Action

The San Francisco Bay Area is one of the most economically and ecologically vibrant regions in the world. But it is also critically vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As a region, it is imperative that we adapt to the impacts of climate change by fostering resilient and sustainable development. This challenge brings us an exciting opportunity to embrace a spirit of stewardship that advances both economic and environmental prosperity.

For more information, please contact MTC staff:

Brenda Dix bdix@mtc.ca.gov

510.817.5927 For a report copy of Transportation Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Project, see: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/climate/Rising_Tides_Briefing_Book.pdf

http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/climate/RisingTides-TechnicalReport.pdf

Conducting Climate Change

Vulnerability of New Jersey’s

Transportation System

Jeffrey Perlman, AICP, PP, LEEDAP, Principal Planner

North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority

Project Goals

Assess the vulnerability of NJ’s transportation system to the

affects of climate change

Test FHWA Conceptual Model

Build capacity among State agencies to analyze climate data

and assess vulnerability

Assist Counties and Municipalities in assessing their own

vulnerable infrastructure and climate adaptation planning

NJTPA

DVRPC

SJTPO

Project Study Area

Transportation Asset Categories Included in

Criticality Analysis

Roadways (from the CMS network)

Bridges

Passenger Rail (Amtrak and NJ TRANSIT)

Freight Rail (NS and CSX, class 3)

Airports

Wetlands

Tunnels (Route 29 and Atlantic City Marina)

Criteria for Ranking Criticality

Revised Criteria for Ranking Criticality

Criteria for Ranking Criticality – Mapping of TAZs

Ranking Criticality for New Jersey’s Infrastructure

Critical Transportation Infrastructure

Determining Climate Impacts – Coastal and Inland

Study Areas

Sea Level Rise and

Storm Surge

Impacts

Temperature and

Precipitation

Inland flooding

impacts

Determining Climate Impacts – Sea Level Rise and

Storm Surge

Three global SLR scenarios - .5, 1, 1.5 meters

based regional SLR increase based on IPCC Special Report on

Emissions Scenarios: Low (B1), Medium (A1B), and High (A2)

Used local subsidence data provided by NJDEP

Projected SLR and SS impacts for 2050 and 2100

SLOSH modeling to determine storm surge impacts from a

Category 1 Hurricane

Utilized Digital Elevation Maps from

High-resolution LiDAR from USGS

Highways Potentially

Vulnerable to Sea Level

Rise

& Storm Surge – medium

GHG scenario for 2100

Highways Potentially Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

& Storm Surge – medium GHG scenario for 2100

Determining Climate Impacts – Temperature &

Precipitation

Three GHG emission scenarios based on IPCC Special Report on

Emissions Scenarios: Low (B1), Medium (A1B), and High (A2)

Projected climate impacts for 2050 and 2100 (represent 30-year

averages)

Collected historic weather data from eight NJ weather stations for

use in climate modeling

Utilized SimCLIM (CLIM Systems) to perform downscaling of GCMs

Climate Thresholds for Analysis

Temperature

Precipitation

Drought

Cold/Frost

Flooding*

Flooding of Passaic River in Paterson NJ from Hurricane Irene

Climate Change Projections – select stations and

emissions scenarios

Climate Extremes: Average Annual Days

at or above 95˚F

Determining Infrastructure Vulnerable to Inland Flooding

Climate variables generated by SimCLIM used as inputs

for inland flooding analysis Same timeframes and emissions scenarios

Frost days, dry days, and rainfall

Analysis estimates potential changes in peak 100-year

storm (1% annual storm event) Generated floodplain polygons based on Flood Insurance Study

cross sections

Used updated Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps from FEMA

Accounts for future estimated changes in impervious area

(population growth)

Rail Infrastructure Potentially Vulnerable to 1% Storm

Event – Medium GHG scenario for 2100

Rail Infrastructure

Potentially Vulnerable

to 1% Storm Event –

Medium GHG scenario

for 2100

•81 miles of roadway

•138 miles of rail

-25 miles of NJ

TRANSIT

-12 miles of Amtrak

Lessons Learned and Remaining Challenges

Important challenges and barriers:

downscaling climate models adds a great deal of uncertainty for

measuring the climate impacts on specific pieces of infrastructure.

absence of bridge elevation and under-clearance data led to the

overstatement of the potential vulnerability of bridge spans

Examining operations data and roadway closures and

comparing with storm events

Better data on weather-related system interruptions

Further Reading

Visit the NJTPA Climate Initiative for more information

http://www.njtpa.org/Plan/Element/Climate/ClimateChangeInitiative.aspx

U.S. Department of Transportation

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation

Federal Highway Administration

S573: Climate Change Risk Assessments of Transportation Systems

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Pilots

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Becky Lupes Federal Highway Administration Rebecca.Lupes@dot.gov

APA 2012 National Planning Conference April 16, 2012

Agenda and Presenters

1. Background on FHWA’s Pilot Program: Becky Lupes,

FHWA

2. San Francisco Pilot: Brenda Dix, MTC

3. New Jersey Pilot: Jeff Perlman, NJTPA

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Climate Change Adaptation at USDOT

Secretary LaHood’s Policy Statement (June 2011):

“The United States Department of Transportation (DOT)

shall integrate consideration of climate change impacts

and adaptation into the planning, operations, policies,

and programs of DOT in order to ensure that taxpayer

resources are invested wisely and that transportation

infrastructure, services and operations remain effective

in current and future climate conditions…”

http://www.dot.gov/docs/climatepolicystatement.pdf

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Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Conceptual Model/Framework

Develop inventory of

infrastructure assets

Gather climate data

Assess vulnerability and

risk of assets to projected

climate change

Analyze, prioritize

adaptation options

Monitor and revisit

Pilot Program Goals

• Help DOTs and MPOs more quickly advance

existing adaptation assessment activities

• Assist FHWA in test driving our climate change

vulnerability and risk assessment framework

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Pilot Program Structure

• One year for the studies

• Collaboration opportunities for pilot participants

4 webinars for sharing progress, results, and exploring topics in detail

2 peer exchanges hosted at pilot locations

SharePoint site

• ICF Assistance

Webinar, peer exchange, and SharePoint logistics and support

Topical expertise

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CALIFORNIA

WASHINGTON

NEW JERSEY

Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk

Assessment Pilot Locations

Oahu

San Francisco Hampton Roads

HAWAII

VIRGINIA

Central &

Coastal

Pilot: Washington State DOT

• Statewide geographic scope

• Studied WSDOT owned and

managed facilities

• Workshops covering the state.

“What keeps you up at night?”

• Putting information in one

comprehensive, searchable format.

• Next Steps:

Develop a focused strategy to

define how the agency will

incorporate results

Further analysis

Communicating Internally and

Externally - focus on solutions,

not just problems

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Pilot: Oahu MPO

• Held 2 day interagency workshop to select assets for further study

• Performed qualitative risk assessment on each asset

• Limited resources

• Emergency management and interagency collaboration focus

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Pilot: Virginia DOT –Hampton Roads

• Developed a priority

setting model

• For use in

transportation

planning

• Multicriteria analysis

included climate

change impact

scenarios

• Model is available for

use by other regions

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• Results being used by Hampton Roads PDC as they update their

transportation plan.

Next Steps

• Update the vulnerability assessment framework

Represent the framework as a series of modules rather than a

linear flow chart

Articulate objectives upfront

Less focus on likelihood

Add resources and examples

• Deployment

• Potential for Additional Pilots

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Resources

FHWA Vulnerability and Risk Assessments

Pilots: www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/pilots.htm

Gulf Coast Study: www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/gulf_coast_study

Tools

NOAA Climate Services Portal: www.climate.gove/#climateWatch

US Army Corps of Engineers Sea Level Rise Calculator:

www.corpsclimate.us/rcwvceslcurves.cfm

Case Studies

Georgetown Climate Center Adaptation Clearinghouse:

www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/clearinghouse

CAKE: www.cakex.org

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U.S. Department of Transportation

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation

Federal Highway Administration

Thank you www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate

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