transportation development division oregon integrated land use and transportation models part 1:...

Transportation Development Division

Oregon Integrated Land Use and Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation ModelsTransportation Models

Part 1: Statewide ModelPart 2: MetroScopePart 3: Land Use Scenario Developer (LUSDR)

Prepared for the Oregon MPO ConsortiumMay 1, 2007


Model FeaturesModel Features

Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type

StatewideModel

Land Use-Transport -Economy

Fully Integrated

Equilibrium &Simulation

MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium

LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic


Oregon Integrated Land Use and Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation ModelsTransportation Models

Prepared for the Oregon MPO ConsortiumPresented by Becky Knudson

ODOT Transportation Development DivisionMay 1, 2007

Part 1: Statewide Model


Why a Statewide ModelWhy a Statewide Model

• Provide forecast of interurban and interregional traffic on state highways.– With out a statewide model, traffic forecasting can only

extrapolate past growth trends. These forecasts are not very sensitive to land use and transport policies.

– As the state gets more populous, the amount of interurban travel becomes more substantial. There is a need, particularly in the I-5 corridor, to simulate the effects of present and potential land use and transport policies.


Modeling in OregonModeling in Oregon

• Coordinated through Oregon Modeling Steering Committee (OMSC)

• OMSC established to:– Realize gains from shared knowledge– Avoid duplication of effort– Combine resources to benefit new modeling

efforts

• Good progress in Travel Demand modeling• Time to turn more attention to Land Use

modeling


Why is Land Use Modeling Important?Why is Land Use Modeling Important?

• Land use in most transport models is an input into a model– Must rely on separate forecast for land use and

entered into model

• Modeling land use: – Reduces land use input data burden – Provides more objectivity and consistency– Captures redistribution/density of land uses in

response to changes– Is more theoretically consistent


Why Why IntegratedIntegrated Land Use Transport Land Use Transport Models?Models?

• Produce future land use forecasts that account for transportation

• Analyze cumulative and indirect effects of proposed transportation projects

• Evaluate compliance with land use• Explore transportation opportunities• Evaluate economic effects of policies• Facilitate integrated land use and

transportation planning


Why Use an Integrated Economic, Why Use an Integrated Economic, Transportation & Land Use ModelTransportation & Land Use Model

• Transport systems affect economic production and the distribution of land use and vise versa.

• The potential impacts of transport system changes on land use is a concern

• Land use policy may be strategic manner in which to address transportation issues

• Economic, land use and transportation relationships are complex. Predicting outcomes of proposed policies and/or projects involves huge computational burden. Computer models are necessary tools for useful analysis.


• Gen1 (1999)– Proof of Concept– Large analysis zones– Few industry sectors– Only two land use types– Simple network– Truck freight only

Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Land Use – Transport - Economic ModelLand Use – Transport - Economic Model


Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Land Use – Transport - Economic ModelLand Use – Transport - Economic Model

• Transitional Model (Oregon2TM)– More detail– Modular

• Equilibrium modules • Simulation modules

– Remains a regional model, does not include urban detail

– Consistent with MPO models


County Boundaries County Boundaries (36)(36)


(28)


Oregon2TM Beta Zones Oregon2TM Beta Zones (519)(519)


Oregon2TM Alpha Zones Oregon2TM Alpha Zones (2,950)(2,950)


Oregon2TM Alpha ZonesOregon2TM Alpha Zones


RVMPO Zones Compared to RVMPO Zones Compared to OR2TMOR2TM

RVMPO zones = 744

OR2TM alpha zones = 154

OR2TM beta zones = 23


Statewide Model Relationship to MPO Statewide Model Relationship to MPO ModelsModels

• Provide alternative population and economic forecasts for MPO model area

• Provide intercity travel data for use in MPO external model

• Provide information for major improvements that affect travel beyond MPO boundary (e.g., Salem Third Bridge)

• Provide information to assist with future land use allocation for MPOs with no land use model


Structure of Oregon2 Transitional ModelStructure of Oregon2 Transitional Model

ED

SPG1

CT

Employmentby Industry

Construction$Totals

ActivityFlows$

TS (EMME/2 equilibrium)

ED-Regional Economics & DemographicsALD-Aggregate Land DevelopmentSPG1-Synthetic Population Synthesizer (sample)PI-Production Allocations & InteractionsSPG2-Synthetic Population Synthesizer (locate)PT-Personal Travel (auto/transit)CT-Commercial Transport (truck)ET-External Transport (auto/truck)TS-Transport Supply (assignment)

Aggregate/EquilibriumMicro-simulationAlpha-Beta Zone ConversionNext Time Period Feedback

Production Totals

SpaceInventory

TravelTime/Costs

OD Trip TablesTravelTime/Costs

Space PricesOccupied Space

ActivityLogsums

SPG2 Mode ChoiceLogsums

PI

PT

ALD

HH Labor by zone

SyntheticPopulation

ET

Import/ExportGrowth Rates

ED

SPG1

CT

Employmentby Industry

Construction$Totals

ActivityFlows$

TS (EMME/2 equilibrium)

ED-Regional Economics & DemographicsALD-Aggregate Land DevelopmentSPG1-Synthetic Population Synthesizer (sample)PI-Production Allocations & InteractionsSPG2-Synthetic Population Synthesizer (locate)PT-Personal Travel (auto/transit)CT-Commercial Transport (truck)ET-External Transport (auto/truck)TS-Transport Supply (assignment)

Aggregate/EquilibriumMicro-simulationAlpha-Beta Zone ConversionNext Time Period Feedback

Production Totals

SpaceInventory

TravelTime/Costs

OD Trip TablesTravelTime/Costs

Space PricesOccupied Space

ActivityLogsums

SPG2 Mode ChoiceLogsums

PI

PT

ALD

HH Labor by zone

SyntheticPopulation

ET

Import/ExportGrowth Rates


Policy AnalysisPolicy Analysis

• Willamette Valley • Bridge Limitations Study• Newberg-Dundee EIS• OTP


By 2050Willamette Valley population will increase from 2.3 million to nearly 4 million

Governor initiated a big-picture brain-storming on alternative futures for Oregon’s most populous region as well as an agriculturally important area.

Willamette Valley Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation FuturesAlternative Transportation Futures


Project ApproachProject Approach

• Help decision-makers understand:– How different land use and transportation

policies are likely to affect land use patterns and state highway congestion

– Sensitivities of growth patterns and highway congestion to different land use and transportation policies


FindingsFindings

• Supply of land affects price and therefore where people and jobs locate

• What transportation improvements and where they are made affects where people and jobs locate

• How people pay for transportation affects where they locate


The 2001 Legislature asked: “If a new freeway is constructed in Central or Eastern Oregon, will it divert traffic and development from I-5 in the Willamette Valley?”

US 97

US 385

Legislative Directive to Study a Legislative Directive to Study a New Freeway in Eastern OregonNew Freeway in Eastern Oregon


• Simple Answer: No. • Analysis revealed:

– New highway would increase speed and reduce travel time from border to border

– May benefit Washington or California more than Eastern or Central Oregon

– Where access to the Willamette Valley improves, the larger market attracts more growth to Valley

• Better question:– “What can we do to divert traffic and development

from I-5 and the Willamette Valley to Eastern and Central Oregon?”

Central/Eastern Oregon FreewayCentral/Eastern Oregon Freeway


Over 500 Oregon bridges identified in 2001 as structurally deficient. Cost to repair/replace $4.7 billion.

The statewide model used to evaluate alternative bridge investment strategies. Final investment plan based on bridge cost, economic costs, community/regional impacts.

Oregon Bridge Deficiency AnalysisOregon Bridge Deficiency Analysis


FindingsFindings• Model results helped to clearly identify the

problem & develop a solution• Analysis showed no immediate crisis, but

predicted large losses of future jobs and reduced production if problem is not addressed

• Analysis revealed the regional and industry impacts, which identified constituent issues

• ODOT changing initial approach “Fix Worst First” to “Corridor Analysis” implemented through a staged repair and replacement program


ODOT RecommendationODOT Recommendation

• $2.5B, initial 10-year strategy to address $4.7B bridge problem

• Address detour routes before interstate construction

• Over 90 percent of the statewide economic benefit of repairing all bridges gained for nearly half the cost


EIS for proposed bypass of two towns on a major recreation route and commuter-shed of Portland

The model was used to examine the potential effects on growth of population, jobs and travel.

Proposed Highway BypassProposed Highway BypassInduced Growth AnalysisInduced Growth Analysis


Modeling/Analysis ConclusionsModeling/Analysis Conclusions

A bypass would likely:• Stimulate economic growth in McMinnville • Support greater travel for all purposes• Have minimal effects on smaller communities in

Yamhill County

Commuter effects vary with a bypass:• Increased commuting by residents west of

McMinnville to Portland east of McMinnville• Commuters east of McMinnville shift commute

from Portland to McMinnville


Modeling/Analysis ConclusionsModeling/Analysis Conclusions

System wide:• Total number of auto trips the same for No

Action and Bypass• Total hours of travel the same for No

Action and Bypass • Total miles traveled greater with the

Bypass


Questions?Questions?

Becky [email protected]

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitODOT Planning Section555 13th ST. NESalem, OR 97301


Summary of Model FeaturesSummary of Model Features

Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type

StatewideModel

Land Use-Transport -Economy

Fully Integrated

Equilibrium &Simulation

MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium

LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic

transportation development division oregon integrated land use and transportation models part 1:...

Documents

potential land use

distribution of land

model modeling land

land use modeling slide

land use modeling important

future land use forecasts

concern land use policy

transportation models